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The scary open secret in the AI industry

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The scary open secret in the AI industry
 

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The scary open secret in the AI industry
right now is that it's possible that

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right now is that it's possible that
 

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right now is that it's possible that
we'll end up essentially creating a new

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we'll end up essentially creating a new
 

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we'll end up essentially creating a new
species that ends up ruling the world

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species that ends up ruling the world
 

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species that ends up ruling the world
with a 70% chance that this goes

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with a 70% chance that this goes
 

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with a 70% chance that this goes
horribly wrong like human extinction.

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horribly wrong like human extinction.
 

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horribly wrong like human extinction.
That's one possibility. There's many

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That's one possibility. There's many
 

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That's one possibility. There's many
more.

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more.
 

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more.
>> It's quite chilling what you're saying.

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>> It's quite chilling what you're saying.
 

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>> It's quite chilling what you're saying.
>> Yeah, it's uh

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>> Yeah, it's uh
 

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>> Yeah, it's uh
gets me down sometimes.

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I basically told my wife like let's not

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I basically told my wife like let's not
 

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I basically told my wife like let's not
have any more kids. It's too uncertain.

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have any more kids. It's too uncertain.
 

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have any more kids. It's too uncertain.
I don't think they'll ever join the

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I don't think they'll ever join the
 

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I don't think they'll ever join the
workforce.

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workforce.
 

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workforce.
Everybody should be afraid that their

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Everybody should be afraid that their
 

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Everybody should be afraid that their
jobs are going to be lost. And I know

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jobs are going to be lost. And I know
 

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jobs are going to be lost. And I know
this because I went to OpenAI in 2022.

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this because I went to OpenAI in 2022.
 

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this because I went to OpenAI in 2022.
What I did there was forecasting what

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What I did there was forecasting what
 

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What I did there was forecasting what
the what the next couple years might

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the what the next couple years might
 

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the what the next couple years might
look like. And unfortunately, most of

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look like. And unfortunately, most of
 

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look like. And unfortunately, most of
the world is kind of asleep at the wheel

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the world is kind of asleep at the wheel
 

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the world is kind of asleep at the wheel
and doesn't really realize what's going

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and doesn't really realize what's going
 

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and doesn't really realize what's going
on with AI. So, I resigned.

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on with AI. So, I resigned.
 

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on with AI. So, I resigned.
>> I read it somewhere that you lost $2

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>> I read it somewhere that you lost $2
 

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>> I read it somewhere that you lost $2
million for not signing an

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million for not signing an
 

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million for not signing an
anti-disparagement clause, meaning you

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anti-disparagement clause, meaning you
 

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anti-disparagement clause, meaning you
couldn't criticize the company.

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couldn't criticize the company.
 

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couldn't criticize the company.
>> Yes, for reasons I'm happy to get into.

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>> Yes, for reasons I'm happy to get into.
 

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>> Yes, for reasons I'm happy to get into.
But, the main thing I've learned is when

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But, the main thing I've learned is when
 

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But, the main thing I've learned is when
I go talk to people at Anthropic and

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I go talk to people at Anthropic and
 

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I go talk to people at Anthropic and
OpenAI about forecasting, they're like,

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OpenAI about forecasting, they're like,
 

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OpenAI about forecasting, they're like,
"It's not going to take that long. You

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"It's not going to take that long. You
 

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"It's not going to take that long. You
need to shorten them again. Get them

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need to shorten them again. Get them
 

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need to shorten them again. Get them
back to 2027 or 2028." Because these

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back to 2027 or 2028." Because these
 

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back to 2027 or 2028." Because these
powerful CEOs, Dario or Sam or Elon, are

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powerful CEOs, Dario or Sam or Elon, are
 

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powerful CEOs, Dario or Sam or Elon, are
racing each other to be in control of

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racing each other to be in control of
 

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racing each other to be in control of
the most powerful AIs. And are literally

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the most powerful AIs. And are literally
 

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the most powerful AIs. And are literally
afraid that if the other guy gets there

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afraid that if the other guy gets there
 

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afraid that if the other guy gets there
first, he might become dictator. I mean,

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first, he might become dictator. I mean,
 

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first, he might become dictator. I mean,
Anthropic is on track to be the entire

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Anthropic is on track to be the entire
 

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Anthropic is on track to be the entire
economy by 2030. But, none of these

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economy by 2030. But, none of these
 

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economy by 2030. But, none of these
people should be trusted with that much

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people should be trusted with that much
 

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people should be trusted with that much
power. So, this is the most important

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power. So, this is the most important
 

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power. So, this is the most important
thing happening in our lifetimes,

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thing happening in our lifetimes,
 

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thing happening in our lifetimes,
probably in all of history, in fact. And

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probably in all of history, in fact. And
 

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probably in all of history, in fact. And
it's very important that it go well. So,

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it's very important that it go well. So,
 

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it's very important that it go well. So,
I think that there's a lot we can do to

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I think that there's a lot we can do to
 

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I think that there's a lot we can do to
like steer things in a better direction.

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like steer things in a better direction.
 

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like steer things in a better direction.
There's loads of benefits that we could

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There's loads of benefits that we could
 

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There's loads of benefits that we could
get from AI if we do it right. And if we

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get from AI if we do it right. And if we
 

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get from AI if we do it right. And if we
do solve the problems, then things could

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do solve the problems, then things could
 

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do solve the problems, then things could
be absolutely amazing for everyone.

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be absolutely amazing for everyone.
 

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be absolutely amazing for everyone.
>> Well, this report here in 2021, it was

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>> Well, this report here in 2021, it was
 

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>> Well, this report here in 2021, it was
remarkably [music] accurate. And then

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remarkably [music] accurate. And then
 

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remarkably [music] accurate. And then
just published this one.

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just published this one.
 

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just published this one.
>> Yeah. So, this is our new scenarios.

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>> Yeah. So, this is our new scenarios.
 

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>> Yeah. So, this is our new scenarios.
>> So, let's go through these slowly and

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>> So, let's go through these slowly and
 

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>> So, let's go through these slowly and
one at a time.

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one at a time.
 

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one at a time.
>> I would be incredibly happy if all my

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>> I would be incredibly happy if all my
 

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>> I would be incredibly happy if all my
predictions turn out to be wrong.

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>> This is super interesting to me. My team

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>> This is super interesting to me. My team
 

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>> This is super interesting to me. My team
gave me this report to show me how many

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gave me this report to show me how many
 

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gave me this report to show me how many
of you that watch this show subscribe.

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of you that watch this show subscribe.
 

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of you that watch this show subscribe.
And some of you have told us, according

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And some of you have told us, according
 

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And some of you have told us, according
to this, that you are unsubscribed from

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to this, that you are unsubscribed from
 

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to this, that you are unsubscribed from
the channel randomly. So, favor to ask

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the channel randomly. So, favor to ask
 

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the channel randomly. So, favor to ask
all of you, please could you check right

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all of you, please could you check right
 

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all of you, please could you check right
now if you've hit the subscribe button.

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now if you've hit the subscribe button.
 

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now if you've hit the subscribe button.
If you are regular viewer of this show

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If you are regular viewer of this show
 

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If you are regular viewer of this show
and you like what we we here. We're

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and you like what we we here. We're
 

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and you like what we we here. We're
approaching quite a significant landmark

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approaching quite a significant landmark
 

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approaching quite a significant landmark
on this show in terms of the subscriber

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on this show in terms of the subscriber
 

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on this show in terms of the subscriber
number. So, if there was one simple free

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number. So, if there was one simple free
 

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number. So, if there was one simple free
thing that you could do to help us, my

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thing that you could do to help us, my
 

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thing that you could do to help us, my
team, everyone here, to keep this show

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team, everyone here, to keep this show
 

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team, everyone here, to keep this show
free, to keep it improving year over

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free, to keep it improving year over
 

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free, to keep it improving year over
year and week over week, it is just to

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year and week over week, it is just to
 

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year and week over week, it is just to
hit that subscribe button and to

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hit that subscribe button and to
 

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hit that subscribe button and to
double-check if you've hit it. Only

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double-check if you've hit it. Only
 

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double-check if you've hit it. Only
thing I'll ever ask of you.

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thing I'll ever ask of you.
 

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thing I'll ever ask of you.
Do we have a deal?

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Do we have a deal?
 

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Do we have a deal?
If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll

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If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll
 

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If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll
do. I'll make sure

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do. I'll make sure
 

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do. I'll make sure
every single week, every single month,

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every single week, every single month,
 

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every single week, every single month,
we fight harder and harder and harder

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we fight harder and harder and harder
 

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we fight harder and harder and harder
and harder to bring you the guests and

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and harder to bring you the guests and
 

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and harder to bring you the guests and
conversations that you want to hear. I

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conversations that you want to hear. I
 

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conversations that you want to hear. I
stay true to that promise since the very

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stay true to that promise since the very
 

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stay true to that promise since the very
beginning of the Diary of a CEO, and I

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beginning of the Diary of a CEO, and I
 

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beginning of the Diary of a CEO, and I
will not let you down. Please help us.

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will not let you down. Please help us.
 

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will not let you down. Please help us.
Really appreciate it. Let's get on with

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Really appreciate it. Let's get on with
 

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Really appreciate it. Let's get on with
the show.

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the show.
 

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the show.
>> [music]

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>> Daniel Kokotajlo.

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>> Daniel Kokotajlo.
 

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>> Daniel Kokotajlo.
At the very heart of what you do,

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At the very heart of what you do,
 

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At the very heart of what you do,
um what is your mission? And why?

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um what is your mission? And why?
 

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um what is your mission? And why?
>> So, what would you do if you thought

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>> So, what would you do if you thought
 

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>> So, what would you do if you thought
that superintelligence was coming in a

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that superintelligence was coming in a
 

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that superintelligence was coming in a
few years?

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few years?
 

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few years?
>> I guess it depends

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>> I guess it depends
 

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>> I guess it depends
what the consequences were.

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what the consequences were.
 

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what the consequences were.
>> Well, let's talk about it. So,

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>> Well, let's talk about it. So,
 

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>> Well, let's talk about it. So,
superintelligence, AIs that are better

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superintelligence, AIs that are better
 

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superintelligence, AIs that are better
than the best humans at everything,

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than the best humans at everything,
 

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than the best humans at everything,
while also being faster and cheaper,

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while also being faster and cheaper,
 

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while also being faster and cheaper,
also able to

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also able to
 

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also able to
operate robots that can do everything in

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operate robots that can do everything in
 

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operate robots that can do everything in
the physical world that humans can do,

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the physical world that humans can do,
 

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the physical world that humans can do,
but better, faster, and cheaper. If that

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but better, faster, and cheaper. If that
 

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but better, faster, and cheaper. If that
really is coming in a few years,

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really is coming in a few years,
 

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really is coming in a few years,
then we need to prepare, and we need to

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then we need to prepare, and we need to
 

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then we need to prepare, and we need to
think about how to make it go well

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think about how to make it go well
 

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think about how to make it go well
instead of poorly. So, that's sort of my

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instead of poorly. So, that's sort of my
 

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instead of poorly. So, that's sort of my
answer is like, I'm doing that to the

230
00:03:13,910 --> 00:03:13,920
answer is like, I'm doing that to the
 

231
00:03:13,920 --> 00:03:14,870
answer is like, I'm doing that to the
best of my ability.

232
00:03:14,870 --> 00:03:14,880
best of my ability.
 

233
00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:16,110
best of my ability.
>> So, you believe it's coming in a few

234
00:03:16,110 --> 00:03:16,120
>> So, you believe it's coming in a few
 

235
00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:16,630
>> So, you believe it's coming in a few
years?

236
00:03:16,630 --> 00:03:16,640
years?
 

237
00:03:16,640 --> 00:03:17,830
years?
>> Yes.

238
00:03:17,830 --> 00:03:17,840
>> Yes.
 

239
00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:19,110
>> Yes.
>> How could you be so sure?

240
00:03:19,110 --> 00:03:19,120
>> How could you be so sure?
 

241
00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:20,509
>> How could you be so sure?
>> I spend a lot of time trying to forecast

242
00:03:20,509 --> 00:03:20,519
>> I spend a lot of time trying to forecast
 

243
00:03:20,519 --> 00:03:22,550
>> I spend a lot of time trying to forecast
this sort of thing. My sort of median

244
00:03:22,550 --> 00:03:22,560
this sort of thing. My sort of median
 

245
00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,310
this sort of thing. My sort of median
estimate, a 50% chance, is currently in

246
00:03:25,310 --> 00:03:25,320
estimate, a 50% chance, is currently in
 

247
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:28,070
estimate, a 50% chance, is currently in
2029. Maybe it'll slip to 2028. It's

248
00:03:28,070 --> 00:03:28,080
2029. Maybe it'll slip to 2028. It's
 

249
00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:29,590
2029. Maybe it'll slip to 2028. It's
possible that it'll take significantly

250
00:03:29,590 --> 00:03:29,600
possible that it'll take significantly
 

251
00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,630
possible that it'll take significantly
longer, like maybe 10 years or something

252
00:03:31,630 --> 00:03:31,640
longer, like maybe 10 years or something
 

253
00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:35,229
longer, like maybe 10 years or something
like that. But, uh you know, for reasons

254
00:03:35,229 --> 00:03:35,239
like that. But, uh you know, for reasons
 

255
00:03:35,239 --> 00:03:37,070
like that. But, uh you know, for reasons
I'm happy to get into, seems to me like

256
00:03:37,070 --> 00:03:37,080
I'm happy to get into, seems to me like
 

257
00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:38,190
I'm happy to get into, seems to me like
it's probably happening by the end of

258
00:03:38,190 --> 00:03:38,200
it's probably happening by the end of
 

259
00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,350
it's probably happening by the end of
the decade. Which less important is the

260
00:03:41,350 --> 00:03:41,360
the decade. Which less important is the
 

261
00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,229
the decade. Which less important is the
the sense of how close we are. What's

262
00:03:43,229 --> 00:03:43,239
the sense of how close we are. What's
 

263
00:03:43,239 --> 00:03:45,030
the sense of how close we are. What's
more important is the pace of the

264
00:03:45,030 --> 00:03:45,040
more important is the pace of the
 

265
00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:46,509
more important is the pace of the
trends.

266
00:03:46,509 --> 00:03:46,519
trends.
 

267
00:03:46,519 --> 00:03:48,470
trends.
Anthropic

268
00:03:48,470 --> 00:03:48,480
Anthropic
 

269
00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,229
Anthropic
this time last year was making something

270
00:03:50,229 --> 00:03:50,239
this time last year was making something
 

271
00:03:50,239 --> 00:03:52,590
this time last year was making something
like a billion dollars a year.

272
00:03:52,590 --> 00:03:52,600
like a billion dollars a year.
 

273
00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:54,070
like a billion dollars a year.
And they're making something like 60

274
00:03:54,070 --> 00:03:54,080
And they're making something like 60
 

275
00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:55,630
And they're making something like 60
billion dollars a year.

276
00:03:55,630 --> 00:03:55,640
billion dollars a year.
 

277
00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:56,710
billion dollars a year.
So that's

278
00:03:56,710 --> 00:03:56,720
So that's
 

279
00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,190
So that's
60x growth in 1 year,

280
00:03:59,190 --> 00:03:59,200
60x growth in 1 year,
 

281
00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,710
60x growth in 1 year,
which is extremely impressive even for

282
00:04:01,710 --> 00:04:01,720
which is extremely impressive even for
 

283
00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,990
which is extremely impressive even for
very small startups, but for a company

284
00:04:03,990 --> 00:04:04,000
very small startups, but for a company
 

285
00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,070
very small startups, but for a company
of their size, it might be the fastest

286
00:04:06,070 --> 00:04:06,080
of their size, it might be the fastest
 

287
00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:07,910
of their size, it might be the fastest
growth in history.

288
00:04:07,910 --> 00:04:07,920
growth in history.
 

289
00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,310
growth in history.
Um we expect that rate of growth to slow

290
00:04:10,310 --> 00:04:10,320
Um we expect that rate of growth to slow
 

291
00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:11,230
Um we expect that rate of growth to slow
down,

292
00:04:11,230 --> 00:04:11,240
down,
 

293
00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:15,030
down,
but even if it slows down quite a lot,

294
00:04:15,030 --> 00:04:15,040
but even if it slows down quite a lot,
 

295
00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,190
but even if it slows down quite a lot,
they're still on track to be,

296
00:04:17,190 --> 00:04:17,200
they're still on track to be,
 

297
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,150
they're still on track to be,
you know, the entire economy by 2030 or

298
00:04:20,150 --> 00:04:20,160
you know, the entire economy by 2030 or
 

299
00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:20,870
you know, the entire economy by 2030 or
so.

300
00:04:20,870 --> 00:04:20,880
so.
 

301
00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:22,870
so.
>> Why should the average person care?

302
00:04:22,870 --> 00:04:22,880
>> Why should the average person care?
 

303
00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:23,909
>> Why should the average person care?
>> The high-level thing is absolutely

304
00:04:23,909 --> 00:04:23,919
>> The high-level thing is absolutely
 

305
00:04:23,919 --> 00:04:25,590
>> The high-level thing is absolutely
everything is going to change for the

306
00:04:25,590 --> 00:04:25,600
everything is going to change for the
 

307
00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,110
everything is going to change for the
whole world, and including therefore for

308
00:04:27,110 --> 00:04:27,120
whole world, and including therefore for
 

309
00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,590
whole world, and including therefore for
them and their families. Um could change

310
00:04:29,590 --> 00:04:29,600
them and their families. Um could change
 

311
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:30,590
them and their families. Um could change
for the better, could change for the

312
00:04:30,590 --> 00:04:30,600
for the better, could change for the
 

313
00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:31,870
for the better, could change for the
worse, depending on the details of how

314
00:04:31,870 --> 00:04:31,880
worse, depending on the details of how
 

315
00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,350
worse, depending on the details of how
it's done. So for example,

316
00:04:34,350 --> 00:04:34,360
it's done. So for example,
 

317
00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:35,550
it's done. So for example,
everyone could die,

318
00:04:35,550 --> 00:04:35,560
everyone could die,
 

319
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,310
everyone could die,
you know? Um this is the classic loss of

320
00:04:37,310 --> 00:04:37,320
you know? Um this is the classic loss of
 

321
00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,230
you know? Um this is the classic loss of
control scenario, or one version of it.

322
00:04:40,230 --> 00:04:40,240
control scenario, or one version of it.
 

323
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,070
control scenario, or one version of it.
If we do build these super

324
00:04:42,070 --> 00:04:42,080
If we do build these super
 

325
00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,070
If we do build these super
intelligences, and we

326
00:04:44,070 --> 00:04:44,080
intelligences, and we
 

327
00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,590
intelligences, and we
use them to automate all the jobs, and

328
00:04:46,590 --> 00:04:46,600
use them to automate all the jobs, and
 

329
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,630
use them to automate all the jobs, and
we put them in the military, and we, you

330
00:04:48,630 --> 00:04:48,640
we put them in the military, and we, you
 

331
00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:49,870
we put them in the military, and we, you
know, have them giving advice to

332
00:04:49,870 --> 00:04:49,880
know, have them giving advice to
 

333
00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:51,710
know, have them giving advice to
politicians, and so forth, they will

334
00:04:51,710 --> 00:04:51,720
politicians, and so forth, they will
 

335
00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:52,870
politicians, and so forth, they will
eventually have accumulated enough

336
00:04:52,870 --> 00:04:52,880
eventually have accumulated enough
 

337
00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,390
eventually have accumulated enough
real-world power

338
00:04:54,390 --> 00:04:54,400
real-world power
 

339
00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,150
real-world power
that they don't need humans anymore. And

340
00:04:57,150 --> 00:04:57,160
that they don't need humans anymore. And
 

341
00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:58,110
that they don't need humans anymore. And
they're smarter than us, they're more

342
00:04:58,110 --> 00:04:58,120
they're smarter than us, they're more
 

343
00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,830
they're smarter than us, they're more
strategic, etc. At that point, we sort

344
00:05:00,830 --> 00:05:00,840
strategic, etc. At that point, we sort
 

345
00:05:00,840 --> 00:05:02,750
strategic, etc. At that point, we sort
of have to hope that they are virtuous,

346
00:05:02,750 --> 00:05:02,760
of have to hope that they are virtuous,
 

347
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:04,430
of have to hope that they are virtuous,
that they have, you know, the goals that

348
00:05:04,430 --> 00:05:04,440
that they have, you know, the goals that
 

349
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:05,670
that they have, you know, the goals that
we wanted them to have, the values that

350
00:05:05,670 --> 00:05:05,680
we wanted them to have, the values that
 

351
00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:07,350
we wanted them to have, the values that
we wanted them to have, etc.

352
00:05:07,350 --> 00:05:07,360
we wanted them to have, etc.
 

353
00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,430
we wanted them to have, etc.
And the sort of

354
00:05:09,430 --> 00:05:09,440
And the sort of
 

355
00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:11,230
And the sort of
scary open secret in the AI industry

356
00:05:11,230 --> 00:05:11,240
scary open secret in the AI industry
 

357
00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:12,790
scary open secret in the AI industry
right now is that right now that is kind

358
00:05:12,790 --> 00:05:12,800
right now is that right now that is kind
 

359
00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:14,350
right now is that right now that is kind
of just a hope. It's not something that

360
00:05:14,350 --> 00:05:14,360
of just a hope. It's not something that
 

361
00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:15,550
of just a hope. It's not something that
we can

362
00:05:15,550 --> 00:05:15,560
we can
 

363
00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:16,909
we can
be at all confident in, and in fact,

364
00:05:16,909 --> 00:05:16,919
be at all confident in, and in fact,
 

365
00:05:16,919 --> 00:05:18,390
be at all confident in, and in fact,
there's lots of evidence and arguments

366
00:05:18,390 --> 00:05:18,400
there's lots of evidence and arguments
 

367
00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:19,350
there's lots of evidence and arguments
that

368
00:05:19,350 --> 00:05:19,360
that
 

369
00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:20,790
that
it we're not on track to achieve that.

370
00:05:20,790 --> 00:05:20,800
it we're not on track to achieve that.
 

371
00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:22,110
it we're not on track to achieve that.
So there's lots of reason Like current

372
00:05:22,110 --> 00:05:22,120
So there's lots of reason Like current
 

373
00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,990
So there's lots of reason Like current
AIs, for example, will often lie uh to

374
00:05:24,990 --> 00:05:25,000
AIs, for example, will often lie uh to
 

375
00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:26,909
AIs, for example, will often lie uh to
people, or they will like you tell them

376
00:05:26,909 --> 00:05:26,919
people, or they will like you tell them
 

377
00:05:26,919 --> 00:05:28,150
people, or they will like you tell them
to do something and they go do something

378
00:05:28,150 --> 00:05:28,160
to do something and they go do something
 

379
00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:29,430
to do something and they go do something
else, and then pretend that they did it,

380
00:05:29,430 --> 00:05:29,440
else, and then pretend that they did it,
 

381
00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,110
else, and then pretend that they did it,
right? So

382
00:05:31,110 --> 00:05:31,120
right? So
 

383
00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:32,630
right? So
it's an inherently difficult problem to

384
00:05:32,630 --> 00:05:32,640
it's an inherently difficult problem to
 

385
00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:34,230
it's an inherently difficult problem to
make something that's super intelligent

386
00:05:34,230 --> 00:05:34,240
make something that's super intelligent
 

387
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:35,470
make something that's super intelligent
and also

388
00:05:35,470 --> 00:05:35,480
and also
 

389
00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:36,870
and also
has the values and virtues that you want

390
00:05:36,870 --> 00:05:36,880
has the values and virtues that you want
 

391
00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:38,750
has the values and virtues that you want
it to have, and it doesn't seem like

392
00:05:38,750 --> 00:05:38,760
it to have, and it doesn't seem like
 

393
00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:40,550
it to have, and it doesn't seem like
we're on track to solve that problem.

394
00:05:40,550 --> 00:05:40,560
we're on track to solve that problem.
 

395
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:41,830
we're on track to solve that problem.
Also, it seems like the sort of problem

396
00:05:41,830 --> 00:05:41,840
Also, it seems like the sort of problem
 

397
00:05:41,840 --> 00:05:43,510
Also, it seems like the sort of problem
that you could think you solved when you

398
00:05:43,510 --> 00:05:43,520
that you could think you solved when you
 

399
00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,750
that you could think you solved when you
haven't actually solved it, right? Uh

400
00:05:45,750 --> 00:05:45,760
haven't actually solved it, right? Uh
 

401
00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:47,950
haven't actually solved it, right? Uh
that's a big reason why this is scary.

402
00:05:47,950 --> 00:05:47,960
that's a big reason why this is scary.
 

403
00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:49,670
that's a big reason why this is scary.
So, for all those reasons, it's possible

404
00:05:49,670 --> 00:05:49,680
So, for all those reasons, it's possible
 

405
00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:51,510
So, for all those reasons, it's possible
that we'll end up essentially creating a

406
00:05:51,510 --> 00:05:51,520
that we'll end up essentially creating a
 

407
00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:53,910
that we'll end up essentially creating a
new species that ends up ruling the

408
00:05:53,910 --> 00:05:53,920
new species that ends up ruling the
 

409
00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,270
new species that ends up ruling the
world instead of us. And then maybe we

410
00:05:56,270 --> 00:05:56,280
world instead of us. And then maybe we
 

411
00:05:56,280 --> 00:05:57,670
world instead of us. And then maybe we
go the way of other extinct species in

412
00:05:57,670 --> 00:05:57,680
go the way of other extinct species in
 

413
00:05:57,680 --> 00:05:58,950
go the way of other extinct species in
the past that were outcompeted by

414
00:05:58,950 --> 00:05:58,960
the past that were outcompeted by
 

415
00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,230
the past that were outcompeted by
humans. That's one possibility. There's

416
00:06:01,230 --> 00:06:01,240
humans. That's one possibility. There's
 

417
00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,110
humans. That's one possibility. There's
many more. Even if you're not worried

418
00:06:03,110 --> 00:06:03,120
many more. Even if you're not worried
 

419
00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:04,630
many more. Even if you're not worried
about that and you think that the AIs

420
00:06:04,630 --> 00:06:04,640
about that and you think that the AIs
 

421
00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,230
about that and you think that the AIs
will be totally controlled,

422
00:06:06,230 --> 00:06:06,240
will be totally controlled,
 

423
00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:07,510
will be totally controlled,
there's the question of who controls the

424
00:06:07,510 --> 00:06:07,520
there's the question of who controls the
 

425
00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:08,430
there's the question of who controls the
AIs,

426
00:06:08,430 --> 00:06:08,440
AIs,
 

427
00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:09,390
AIs,
right?

428
00:06:09,390 --> 00:06:09,400
right?
 

429
00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:11,110
right?
When there's a couple corporations that

430
00:06:11,110 --> 00:06:11,120
When there's a couple corporations that
 

431
00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:12,710
When there's a couple corporations that
have made these superintelligences and

432
00:06:12,710 --> 00:06:12,720
have made these superintelligences and
 

433
00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,390
have made these superintelligences and
are using them to automate all the jobs,

434
00:06:15,390 --> 00:06:15,400
are using them to automate all the jobs,
 

435
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,310
are using them to automate all the jobs,
well, that's a lot of power, you know?

436
00:06:17,310 --> 00:06:17,320
well, that's a lot of power, you know?
 

437
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:18,670
well, that's a lot of power, you know?
That's a lot of money. It's a lot of

438
00:06:18,670 --> 00:06:18,680
That's a lot of money. It's a lot of
 

439
00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,110
That's a lot of money. It's a lot of
political power. They'll have the best

440
00:06:20,110 --> 00:06:20,120
political power. They'll have the best
 

441
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,190
political power. They'll have the best
strategists, the best advisers, you

442
00:06:22,190 --> 00:06:22,200
strategists, the best advisers, you
 

443
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:25,590
strategists, the best advisers, you
know, they'll think faster. Militarily,

444
00:06:25,590 --> 00:06:25,600
know, they'll think faster. Militarily,
 

445
00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,590
know, they'll think faster. Militarily,
uh, the countries that has these AIs

446
00:06:27,590 --> 00:06:27,600
uh, the countries that has these AIs
 

447
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:28,870
uh, the countries that has these AIs
will be able to absolutely wipe the

448
00:06:28,870 --> 00:06:28,880
will be able to absolutely wipe the
 

449
00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:30,710
will be able to absolutely wipe the
floor with all the other countries. The

450
00:06:30,710 --> 00:06:30,720
floor with all the other countries. The
 

451
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:32,430
floor with all the other countries. The
AIs themselves, it's it's kind of a

452
00:06:32,430 --> 00:06:32,440
AIs themselves, it's it's kind of a
 

453
00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:34,909
AIs themselves, it's it's kind of a
single point of failure like central

454
00:06:34,909 --> 00:06:34,919
single point of failure like central
 

455
00:06:34,919 --> 00:06:36,790
single point of failure like central
uh, control system where,

456
00:06:36,790 --> 00:06:36,800
uh, control system where,
 

457
00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,990
uh, control system where,
you know, the CEO of Anthropic, Dario,

458
00:06:39,990 --> 00:06:40,000
you know, the CEO of Anthropic, Dario,
 

459
00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:41,430
you know, the CEO of Anthropic, Dario,
he coined this phrase, "The country of

460
00:06:41,430 --> 00:06:41,440
he coined this phrase, "The country of
 

461
00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,430
he coined this phrase, "The country of
geniuses in the giant data center." That

462
00:06:43,430 --> 00:06:43,440
geniuses in the giant data center." That
 

463
00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:44,830
geniuses in the giant data center." That
was his

464
00:06:44,830 --> 00:06:44,840
was his
 

465
00:06:44,840 --> 00:06:45,909
was his
phrase to describe what they're trying

466
00:06:45,909 --> 00:06:45,919
phrase to describe what they're trying
 

467
00:06:45,919 --> 00:06:47,750
phrase to describe what they're trying
to build, you know?

468
00:06:47,750 --> 00:06:47,760
to build, you know?
 

469
00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:49,110
to build, you know?
I think that's a little bit misleading.

470
00:06:49,110 --> 00:06:49,120
I think that's a little bit misleading.
 

471
00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:50,430
I think that's a little bit misleading.
I think it would be more accurate to

472
00:06:50,430 --> 00:06:50,440
I think it would be more accurate to
 

473
00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:51,990
I think it would be more accurate to
describe it as army of geniuses in the

474
00:06:51,990 --> 00:06:52,000
describe it as army of geniuses in the
 

475
00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:53,510
describe it as army of geniuses in the
data center because

476
00:06:53,510 --> 00:06:53,520
data center because
 

477
00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:54,870
data center because
it's not like it's a bunch of diverse

478
00:06:54,870 --> 00:06:54,880
it's not like it's a bunch of diverse
 

479
00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:56,310
it's not like it's a bunch of diverse
different AIs,

480
00:06:56,310 --> 00:06:56,320
different AIs,
 

481
00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:57,270
different AIs,
you know, living in their different

482
00:06:57,270 --> 00:06:57,280
you know, living in their different
 

483
00:06:57,280 --> 00:06:58,710
you know, living in their different
parts of the data center. They're all

484
00:06:58,710 --> 00:06:58,720
parts of the data center. They're all
 

485
00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,070
parts of the data center. They're all
copies

486
00:07:00,070 --> 00:07:00,080
copies
 

487
00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,510
copies
of the same big model and they're owned

488
00:07:02,510 --> 00:07:02,520
of the same big model and they're owned
 

489
00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,350
of the same big model and they're owned
by the company. And so,

490
00:07:04,350 --> 00:07:04,360
by the company. And so,
 

491
00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,070
by the company. And so,
they all follow the orders given by the

492
00:07:06,070 --> 00:07:06,080
they all follow the orders given by the
 

493
00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:07,630
they all follow the orders given by the
company, right? People should be asking

494
00:07:07,630 --> 00:07:07,640
company, right? People should be asking
 

495
00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:09,350
company, right? People should be asking
questions of like, who controls this

496
00:07:09,350 --> 00:07:09,360
questions of like, who controls this
 

497
00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:10,750
questions of like, who controls this
army or these armies and what are they

498
00:07:10,750 --> 00:07:10,760
army or these armies and what are they
 

499
00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:12,150
army or these armies and what are they
going to be doing with them?

500
00:07:12,150 --> 00:07:12,160
going to be doing with them?
 

501
00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:13,510
going to be doing with them?
I think that we could very easily end up

502
00:07:13,510 --> 00:07:13,520
I think that we could very easily end up
 

503
00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,790
I think that we could very easily end up
in a sort of

504
00:07:15,790 --> 00:07:15,800
in a sort of
 

505
00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,990
in a sort of
uh, a situation where

506
00:07:17,990 --> 00:07:18,000
uh, a situation where
 

507
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:19,110
uh, a situation where
some tiny group of people are

508
00:07:19,110 --> 00:07:19,120
some tiny group of people are
 

509
00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,430
some tiny group of people are
essentially oligarchs or dictators. And

510
00:07:22,430 --> 00:07:22,440
essentially oligarchs or dictators. And
 

511
00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,430
essentially oligarchs or dictators. And
ironically,

512
00:07:24,430 --> 00:07:24,440
ironically,
 

513
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:26,430
ironically,
both of these risks, the loss of control

514
00:07:26,430 --> 00:07:26,440
both of these risks, the loss of control
 

515
00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:28,390
both of these risks, the loss of control
and the constitution of power,

516
00:07:28,390 --> 00:07:28,400
and the constitution of power,
 

517
00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:30,390
and the constitution of power,
are things that people in the industry

518
00:07:30,390 --> 00:07:30,400
are things that people in the industry
 

519
00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,230
are things that people in the industry
have been thinking about for decades.

520
00:07:32,230 --> 00:07:32,240
have been thinking about for decades.
 

521
00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,470
have been thinking about for decades.
Um, even before the AI industry existed,

522
00:07:34,470 --> 00:07:34,480
Um, even before the AI industry existed,
 

523
00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,230
Um, even before the AI industry existed,
you know, people thinking about AI were

524
00:07:36,230 --> 00:07:36,240
you know, people thinking about AI were
 

525
00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,190
you know, people thinking about AI were
talking and writing about these things.

526
00:07:38,190 --> 00:07:38,200
talking and writing about these things.
 

527
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:39,630
talking and writing about these things.
And then part of the founding narrative,

528
00:07:39,630 --> 00:07:39,640
And then part of the founding narrative,
 

529
00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,470
And then part of the founding narrative,
the founding myth of DeepMind and OpenAI

530
00:07:42,470 --> 00:07:42,480
the founding myth of DeepMind and OpenAI
 

531
00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,670
the founding myth of DeepMind and OpenAI
and Anthropic is these problems are

532
00:07:44,670 --> 00:07:44,680
and Anthropic is these problems are
 

533
00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:46,150
and Anthropic is these problems are
real.

534
00:07:46,150 --> 00:07:46,160
real.
 

535
00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,550
real.
So, we need to get there first so that

536
00:07:48,550 --> 00:07:48,560
So, we need to get there first so that
 

537
00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,030
So, we need to get there first so that
we can handle it responsibly. Those are

538
00:07:51,030 --> 00:07:51,040
we can handle it responsibly. Those are
 

539
00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:52,670
we can handle it responsibly. Those are
I think the big two reasons, but then I

540
00:07:52,670 --> 00:07:52,680
I think the big two reasons, but then I
 

541
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,110
I think the big two reasons, but then I
can go on. There's lots more reasons as

542
00:07:54,110 --> 00:07:54,120
can go on. There's lots more reasons as
 

543
00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:55,950
can go on. There's lots more reasons as
well. So, one thing is

544
00:07:55,950 --> 00:07:55,960
well. So, one thing is
 

545
00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:57,750
well. So, one thing is
you know, World War III, geopolitical

546
00:07:57,750 --> 00:07:57,760
you know, World War III, geopolitical
 

547
00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,430
you know, World War III, geopolitical
conflict. Um if AI does in fact get

548
00:08:00,430 --> 00:08:00,440
conflict. Um if AI does in fact get
 

549
00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,150
conflict. Um if AI does in fact get
incredibly powerful, that's going to

550
00:08:02,150 --> 00:08:02,160
incredibly powerful, that's going to
 

551
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:03,270
incredibly powerful, that's going to
change the balance of power between

552
00:08:03,270 --> 00:08:03,280
change the balance of power between
 

553
00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:04,790
change the balance of power between
nations. That's going to disrupt a lot

554
00:08:04,790 --> 00:08:04,800
nations. That's going to disrupt a lot
 

555
00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:06,110
nations. That's going to disrupt a lot
of things.

556
00:08:06,110 --> 00:08:06,120
of things.
 

557
00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,030
of things.
That puts us at increased risk of crisis

558
00:08:08,030 --> 00:08:08,040
That puts us at increased risk of crisis
 

559
00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,270
That puts us at increased risk of crisis
more generally, right? Another one, what

560
00:08:10,270 --> 00:08:10,280
more generally, right? Another one, what
 

561
00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:11,870
more generally, right? Another one, what
about those jobs?

562
00:08:11,870 --> 00:08:11,880
about those jobs?
 

563
00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:13,990
about those jobs?
You you're going to lose your taxi job,

564
00:08:13,990 --> 00:08:14,000
You you're going to lose your taxi job,
 

565
00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:15,790
You you're going to lose your taxi job,
but not just the taxi driver, everybody

566
00:08:15,790 --> 00:08:15,800
but not just the taxi driver, everybody
 

567
00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:16,870
but not just the taxi driver, everybody
pretty much.

568
00:08:16,870 --> 00:08:16,880
pretty much.
 

569
00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:18,390
pretty much.
Um there might be a few exceptions like

570
00:08:18,390 --> 00:08:18,400
Um there might be a few exceptions like
 

571
00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,670
Um there might be a few exceptions like
people whose jobs for legal reasons are

572
00:08:20,670 --> 00:08:20,680
people whose jobs for legal reasons are
 

573
00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,110
people whose jobs for legal reasons are
only allowed to be done by humans, but

574
00:08:23,110 --> 00:08:23,120
only allowed to be done by humans, but
 

575
00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:24,750
only allowed to be done by humans, but
for the most part, everybody should be

576
00:08:24,750 --> 00:08:24,760
for the most part, everybody should be
 

577
00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:25,790
for the most part, everybody should be
afraid that their jobs are going to be

578
00:08:25,790 --> 00:08:25,800
afraid that their jobs are going to be
 

579
00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:27,630
afraid that their jobs are going to be
lost even if we manage to avoid all the

580
00:08:27,630 --> 00:08:27,640
lost even if we manage to avoid all the
 

581
00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:29,430
lost even if we manage to avoid all the
other problems, right?

582
00:08:29,430 --> 00:08:29,440
other problems, right?
 

583
00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,070
other problems, right?
>> This narrative has started to emerge and

584
00:08:31,070 --> 00:08:31,080
>> This narrative has started to emerge and
 

585
00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:32,709
>> This narrative has started to emerge and
I've had several interviews on the show

586
00:08:32,709 --> 00:08:32,719
I've had several interviews on the show
 

587
00:08:32,719 --> 00:08:34,029
I've had several interviews on the show
where I've interviewed people who are

588
00:08:34,029 --> 00:08:34,039
where I've interviewed people who are
 

589
00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:35,670
where I've interviewed people who are
very very scared and anxious about AI.

590
00:08:35,670 --> 00:08:35,680
very very scared and anxious about AI.
 

591
00:08:35,680 --> 00:08:36,670
very very scared and anxious about AI.
And these are people that have worked in

592
00:08:36,670 --> 00:08:36,680
And these are people that have worked in
 

593
00:08:36,680 --> 00:08:38,709
And these are people that have worked in
the industry for sometimes decades.

594
00:08:38,709 --> 00:08:38,719
the industry for sometimes decades.
 

595
00:08:38,719 --> 00:08:38,909
the industry for sometimes decades.
>> Yeah.

596
00:08:38,909 --> 00:08:38,919
>> Yeah.
 

597
00:08:38,919 --> 00:08:40,670
>> Yeah.
>> Um the counter narrative coming over the

598
00:08:40,670 --> 00:08:40,680
>> Um the counter narrative coming over the
 

599
00:08:40,680 --> 00:08:42,950
>> Um the counter narrative coming over the
hill is that this is doomerism.

600
00:08:42,950 --> 00:08:42,960
hill is that this is doomerism.
 

601
00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:44,430
hill is that this is doomerism.
That these people are for whatever

602
00:08:44,430 --> 00:08:44,440
That these people are for whatever
 

603
00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:46,270
That these people are for whatever
reason just trying to scare people and

604
00:08:46,270 --> 00:08:46,280
reason just trying to scare people and
 

605
00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:47,350
reason just trying to scare people and
that they don't really understand what

606
00:08:47,350 --> 00:08:47,360
that they don't really understand what
 

607
00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:48,550
that they don't really understand what
they're talking about. How do you

608
00:08:48,550 --> 00:08:48,560
they're talking about. How do you
 

609
00:08:48,560 --> 00:08:49,950
they're talking about. How do you
respond to that sort of counter

610
00:08:49,950 --> 00:08:49,960
respond to that sort of counter
 

611
00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:51,030
respond to that sort of counter
narrative? And you must have seen this

612
00:08:51,030 --> 00:08:51,040
narrative? And you must have seen this
 

613
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,550
narrative? And you must have seen this
emerging yourself, especially from

614
00:08:53,550 --> 00:08:53,560
emerging yourself, especially from
 

615
00:08:53,560 --> 00:08:55,590
emerging yourself, especially from
people who stand to benefit, dare I say?

616
00:08:55,590 --> 00:08:55,600
people who stand to benefit, dare I say?
 

617
00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,030
people who stand to benefit, dare I say?
>> Yeah, exactly. This counter narrative is

618
00:08:58,030 --> 00:08:58,040
>> Yeah, exactly. This counter narrative is
 

619
00:08:58,040 --> 00:08:59,550
>> Yeah, exactly. This counter narrative is
fairly recent and it's been pushed by

620
00:08:59,550 --> 00:08:59,560
fairly recent and it's been pushed by
 

621
00:08:59,560 --> 00:09:01,350
fairly recent and it's been pushed by
the people who stand to benefit

622
00:09:01,350 --> 00:09:01,360
the people who stand to benefit
 

623
00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,710
the people who stand to benefit
um from it and it's not true. Like these

624
00:09:04,710 --> 00:09:04,720
um from it and it's not true. Like these
 

625
00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,270
um from it and it's not true. Like these
these concerns have been around for

626
00:09:06,270 --> 00:09:06,280
these concerns have been around for
 

627
00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:07,670
these concerns have been around for
decades since before the AI industry

628
00:09:07,670 --> 00:09:07,680
decades since before the AI industry
 

629
00:09:07,680 --> 00:09:08,829
decades since before the AI industry
existed.

630
00:09:08,829 --> 00:09:08,839
existed.
 

631
00:09:08,839 --> 00:09:09,670
existed.
They're actually pretty reasonable

632
00:09:09,670 --> 00:09:09,680
They're actually pretty reasonable
 

633
00:09:09,680 --> 00:09:11,430
They're actually pretty reasonable
concerns. Like if you take the companies

634
00:09:11,430 --> 00:09:11,440
concerns. Like if you take the companies
 

635
00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:12,630
concerns. Like if you take the companies
at their word and imagine that they are

636
00:09:12,630 --> 00:09:12,640
at their word and imagine that they are
 

637
00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:13,270
at their word and imagine that they are
in fact going to build

638
00:09:13,270 --> 00:09:13,280
in fact going to build
 

639
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:14,870
in fact going to build
superintelligence,

640
00:09:14,870 --> 00:09:14,880
superintelligence,
 

641
00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:16,870
superintelligence,
well, it raises a lot of questions. Like

642
00:09:16,870 --> 00:09:16,880
well, it raises a lot of questions. Like
 

643
00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:18,390
well, it raises a lot of questions. Like
who's going to control it? Will anybody

644
00:09:18,390 --> 00:09:18,400
who's going to control it? Will anybody
 

645
00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,390
who's going to control it? Will anybody
control it? What about the jobs? You

646
00:09:20,390 --> 00:09:20,400
control it? What about the jobs? You
 

647
00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:21,430
control it? What about the jobs? You
know, like th- these are just kind of

648
00:09:21,430 --> 00:09:21,440
know, like th- these are just kind of
 

649
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:22,550
know, like th- these are just kind of
obvious

650
00:09:22,550 --> 00:09:22,560
obvious
 

651
00:09:22,560 --> 00:09:23,870
obvious
implications to be thinking about and

652
00:09:23,870 --> 00:09:23,880
implications to be thinking about and
 

653
00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:24,630
implications to be thinking about and
worrying about.

654
00:09:24,630 --> 00:09:24,640
worrying about.
 

655
00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:26,390
worrying about.
>> Who are you and what's your story?

656
00:09:26,390 --> 00:09:26,400
>> Who are you and what's your story?
 

657
00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,070
>> Who are you and what's your story?
>> My name is Daniel Kokotajlo.

658
00:09:28,070 --> 00:09:28,080
>> My name is Daniel Kokotajlo.
 

659
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:29,190
>> My name is Daniel Kokotajlo.
Um

660
00:09:29,190 --> 00:09:29,200
Um
 

661
00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,150
Um
I currently run the AI Futures Project,

662
00:09:32,150 --> 00:09:32,160
I currently run the AI Futures Project,
 

663
00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,790
I currently run the AI Futures Project,
which is a small nonprofit that

664
00:09:34,790 --> 00:09:34,800
which is a small nonprofit that
 

665
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,910
which is a small nonprofit that
mostly focuses on forecasting the future

666
00:09:36,910 --> 00:09:36,920
mostly focuses on forecasting the future
 

667
00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:38,550
mostly focuses on forecasting the future
of AI.

668
00:09:38,550 --> 00:09:38,560
of AI.
 

669
00:09:38,560 --> 00:09:40,870
of AI.
Before that, I worked at OpenAI.

670
00:09:40,870 --> 00:09:40,880
Before that, I worked at OpenAI.
 

671
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:42,550
Before that, I worked at OpenAI.
>> AI forecasting?

672
00:09:42,550 --> 00:09:42,560
>> AI forecasting?
 

673
00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:44,190
>> AI forecasting?
>> Yeah, so

674
00:09:44,190 --> 00:09:44,200
>> Yeah, so
 

675
00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:45,750
>> Yeah, so
think about how like

676
00:09:45,750 --> 00:09:45,760
think about how like
 

677
00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:47,790
think about how like
you know, industry analysts who work for

678
00:09:47,790 --> 00:09:47,800
you know, industry analysts who work for
 

679
00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:49,150
you know, industry analysts who work for
hedge funds and stuff will make these

680
00:09:49,150 --> 00:09:49,160
hedge funds and stuff will make these
 

681
00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:50,750
hedge funds and stuff will make these
forecasts of like

682
00:09:50,750 --> 00:09:50,760
forecasts of like
 

683
00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,590
forecasts of like
here is, you know, how many cars Tesla

684
00:09:52,590 --> 00:09:52,600
here is, you know, how many cars Tesla
 

685
00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,230
here is, you know, how many cars Tesla
will be selling 5 years from now or like

686
00:09:55,230 --> 00:09:55,240
will be selling 5 years from now or like
 

687
00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:56,590
will be selling 5 years from now or like
here's what the price of electricity

688
00:09:56,590 --> 00:09:56,600
here's what the price of electricity
 

689
00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:59,110
here's what the price of electricity
will be in 2 years, right? That's

690
00:09:59,110 --> 00:09:59,120
will be in 2 years, right? That's
 

691
00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:01,310
will be in 2 years, right? That's
forecasting. I was doing that but

692
00:10:01,310 --> 00:10:01,320
forecasting. I was doing that but
 

693
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,150
forecasting. I was doing that but
specifically focused on AI.

694
00:10:03,150 --> 00:10:03,160
specifically focused on AI.
 

695
00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:04,070
specifically focused on AI.
The reason I was doing it is because

696
00:10:04,070 --> 00:10:04,080
The reason I was doing it is because
 

697
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,870
The reason I was doing it is because
it's incredibly important to to see

698
00:10:05,870 --> 00:10:05,880
it's incredibly important to to see
 

699
00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:06,950
it's incredibly important to to see
where this is all headed.

700
00:10:06,950 --> 00:10:06,960
where this is all headed.
 

701
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,310
where this is all headed.
>> Why did you go to OpenAI? What did you

702
00:10:09,310 --> 00:10:09,320
>> Why did you go to OpenAI? What did you
 

703
00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,630
>> Why did you go to OpenAI? What did you
do there? What did you observe while you

704
00:10:11,630 --> 00:10:11,640
do there? What did you observe while you
 

705
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:12,910
do there? What did you observe while you
were there and how did it change your

706
00:10:12,910 --> 00:10:12,920
were there and how did it change your
 

707
00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:15,590
were there and how did it change your
perspective on the future of

708
00:10:15,590 --> 00:10:15,600
perspective on the future of
 

709
00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:17,790
perspective on the future of
AI but also I guess OpenAI as a company

710
00:10:17,790 --> 00:10:17,800
AI but also I guess OpenAI as a company
 

711
00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:19,310
AI but also I guess OpenAI as a company
and for anybody that doesn't know OpenAI

712
00:10:19,310 --> 00:10:19,320
and for anybody that doesn't know OpenAI
 

713
00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,550
and for anybody that doesn't know OpenAI
are the company that produced ChatGPT.

714
00:10:21,550 --> 00:10:21,560
are the company that produced ChatGPT.
 

715
00:10:21,560 --> 00:10:24,030
are the company that produced ChatGPT.
>> Yeah, so I went to OpenAI in 2022.

716
00:10:24,030 --> 00:10:24,040
>> Yeah, so I went to OpenAI in 2022.
 

717
00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:25,470
>> Yeah, so I went to OpenAI in 2022.
Uh a large part of what I did there was

718
00:10:25,470 --> 00:10:25,480
Uh a large part of what I did there was
 

719
00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:27,710
Uh a large part of what I did there was
more forecasting. AI 2027 is a scenario

720
00:10:27,710 --> 00:10:27,720
more forecasting. AI 2027 is a scenario
 

721
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:29,710
more forecasting. AI 2027 is a scenario
that you may have heard of. I did like

722
00:10:29,710 --> 00:10:29,720
that you may have heard of. I did like
 

723
00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:30,910
that you may have heard of. I did like
smaller

724
00:10:30,910 --> 00:10:30,920
smaller
 

725
00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,110
smaller
you know, lower effort versions of them

726
00:10:33,110 --> 00:10:33,120
you know, lower effort versions of them
 

727
00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:34,710
you know, lower effort versions of them
internally for just internal circulation

728
00:10:34,710 --> 00:10:34,720
internally for just internal circulation
 

729
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,630
internally for just internal circulation
of like here's some guesses as to what

730
00:10:36,630 --> 00:10:36,640
of like here's some guesses as to what
 

731
00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:38,110
of like here's some guesses as to what
the next couple years might look like. I

732
00:10:38,110 --> 00:10:38,120
the next couple years might look like. I
 

733
00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,710
the next couple years might look like. I
also worked on evaluations for dangerous

734
00:10:40,710 --> 00:10:40,720
also worked on evaluations for dangerous
 

735
00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:42,470
also worked on evaluations for dangerous
capabilities. So

736
00:10:42,470 --> 00:10:42,480
capabilities. So
 

737
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:43,829
capabilities. So
you know, trying to measure the AI's

738
00:10:43,829 --> 00:10:43,839
you know, trying to measure the AI's
 

739
00:10:43,839 --> 00:10:46,310
you know, trying to measure the AI's
cyber abilities or persuasion abilities

740
00:10:46,310 --> 00:10:46,320
cyber abilities or persuasion abilities
 

741
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,030
cyber abilities or persuasion abilities
or situational awareness and I also

742
00:10:49,030 --> 00:10:49,040
or situational awareness and I also
 

743
00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:51,190
or situational awareness and I also
briefly was on a

744
00:10:51,190 --> 00:10:51,200
briefly was on a
 

745
00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:52,870
briefly was on a
uh a capabilities team doing

746
00:10:52,870 --> 00:10:52,880
uh a capabilities team doing
 

747
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,829
uh a capabilities team doing
reinforcement learning to create agents.

748
00:10:54,829 --> 00:10:54,839
reinforcement learning to create agents.
 

749
00:10:54,839 --> 00:10:56,630
reinforcement learning to create agents.
AI is in fact getting

750
00:10:56,630 --> 00:10:56,640
AI is in fact getting
 

751
00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,910
AI is in fact getting
uh a lot better and I can say more about

752
00:10:58,910 --> 00:10:58,920
uh a lot better and I can say more about
 

753
00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:01,550
uh a lot better and I can say more about
why, you know, scaling laws, um deep

754
00:11:01,550 --> 00:11:01,560
why, you know, scaling laws, um deep
 

755
00:11:01,560 --> 00:11:03,110
why, you know, scaling laws, um deep
neural nets bigger, trained on more

756
00:11:03,110 --> 00:11:03,120
neural nets bigger, trained on more
 

757
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:04,950
neural nets bigger, trained on more
data, become more efficient, more

758
00:11:04,950 --> 00:11:04,960
data, become more efficient, more
 

759
00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:06,510
data, become more efficient, more
competent at those things.

760
00:11:06,510 --> 00:11:06,520
competent at those things.
 

761
00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,750
competent at those things.
I also

762
00:11:08,750 --> 00:11:08,760
I also
 

763
00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,190
I also
became a bit more disillusioned with the

764
00:11:11,190 --> 00:11:11,200
became a bit more disillusioned with the
 

765
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,430
became a bit more disillusioned with the
AI industry. So

766
00:11:13,430 --> 00:11:13,440
AI industry. So
 

767
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,870
AI industry. So
OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind all had

768
00:11:15,870 --> 00:11:15,880
OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind all had
 

769
00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:17,270
OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind all had
these sort of founding narratives of

770
00:11:17,270 --> 00:11:17,280
these sort of founding narratives of
 

771
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,550
these sort of founding narratives of
like yes, these risks are real but

772
00:11:19,550 --> 00:11:19,560
like yes, these risks are real but
 

773
00:11:19,560 --> 00:11:21,070
like yes, these risks are real but
we've thought about them and we're going

774
00:11:21,070 --> 00:11:21,080
we've thought about them and we're going
 

775
00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:22,710
we've thought about them and we're going
to try to handle them responsibly and

776
00:11:22,710 --> 00:11:22,720
to try to handle them responsibly and
 

777
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,750
to try to handle them responsibly and
that's why it's important for us to

778
00:11:24,750 --> 00:11:24,760
that's why it's important for us to
 

779
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:26,990
that's why it's important for us to
keep doing what we're doing and I

780
00:11:26,990 --> 00:11:27,000
keep doing what we're doing and I
 

781
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:28,829
keep doing what we're doing and I
increasingly came to think that these

782
00:11:28,829 --> 00:11:28,839
increasingly came to think that these
 

783
00:11:28,839 --> 00:11:31,270
increasingly came to think that these
were rationalizations

784
00:11:31,270 --> 00:11:31,280
were rationalizations
 

785
00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,750
were rationalizations
to justify what they were rather than

786
00:11:33,750 --> 00:11:33,760
to justify what they were rather than
 

787
00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,750
to justify what they were rather than
sort of like deeply guiding their actual

788
00:11:35,750 --> 00:11:35,760
sort of like deeply guiding their actual
 

789
00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:37,110
sort of like deeply guiding their actual
behavior and that when push comes to

790
00:11:37,110 --> 00:11:37,120
behavior and that when push comes to
 

791
00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,470
behavior and that when push comes to
shove they'll follow their incentives

792
00:11:39,470 --> 00:11:39,480
shove they'll follow their incentives
 

793
00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:41,550
shove they'll follow their incentives
rather than

794
00:11:41,550 --> 00:11:41,560
rather than
 

795
00:11:41,560 --> 00:11:43,070
rather than
do what's actually good.

796
00:11:43,070 --> 00:11:43,080
do what's actually good.
 

797
00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,470
do what's actually good.
>> So you're inside OpenAI at the time and

798
00:11:45,470 --> 00:11:45,480
>> So you're inside OpenAI at the time and
 

799
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,430
>> So you're inside OpenAI at the time and
you start to believe that they're

800
00:11:47,430 --> 00:11:47,440
you start to believe that they're
 

801
00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,710
you start to believe that they're
following commercial incentives versus

802
00:11:49,710 --> 00:11:49,720
following commercial incentives versus
 

803
00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,990
following commercial incentives versus
the I guess social or societal

804
00:11:51,990 --> 00:11:52,000
the I guess social or societal
 

805
00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:53,350
the I guess social or societal
incentives that they founded themselves

806
00:11:53,350 --> 00:11:53,360
incentives that they founded themselves
 

807
00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:53,710
incentives that they founded themselves
on.

808
00:11:53,710 --> 00:11:53,720
on.
 

809
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:54,990
on.
>> Sort of. I mean what I wouldn't actually

810
00:11:54,990 --> 00:11:55,000
>> Sort of. I mean what I wouldn't actually
 

811
00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:56,350
>> Sort of. I mean what I wouldn't actually
describe it as commercial incentives. I

812
00:11:56,350 --> 00:11:56,360
describe it as commercial incentives. I
 

813
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,470
describe it as commercial incentives. I
think I would describe it as

814
00:11:58,470 --> 00:11:58,480
think I would describe it as
 

815
00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:00,110
think I would describe it as
um

816
00:12:00,110 --> 00:12:00,120
um
 

817
00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,430
um
power-seeking incentives. So

818
00:12:02,430 --> 00:12:02,440
power-seeking incentives. So
 

819
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:02,990
power-seeking incentives. So
like [clears throat]

820
00:12:02,990 --> 00:12:03,000
like [clears throat]
 

821
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,790
like [clears throat]
it's true that the companies care a lot

822
00:12:04,790 --> 00:12:04,800
it's true that the companies care a lot
 

823
00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,750
it's true that the companies care a lot
about making a lot of money

824
00:12:06,750 --> 00:12:06,760
about making a lot of money
 

825
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:08,150
about making a lot of money
but especially at the very top of these

826
00:12:08,150 --> 00:12:08,160
but especially at the very top of these
 

827
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:11,110
but especially at the very top of these
companies like the leaders

828
00:12:11,110 --> 00:12:11,120
companies like the leaders
 

829
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:12,510
companies like the leaders
they understand that this is about more

830
00:12:12,510 --> 00:12:12,520
they understand that this is about more
 

831
00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:14,430
they understand that this is about more
than just money. You know?

832
00:12:14,430 --> 00:12:14,440
than just money. You know?
 

833
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:15,790
than just money. You know?
There are these emails that came up in

834
00:12:15,790 --> 00:12:15,800
There are these emails that came up in
 

835
00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,550
There are these emails that came up in
you know the the lawsuit between Musk

836
00:12:17,550 --> 00:12:17,560
you know the the lawsuit between Musk
 

837
00:12:17,560 --> 00:12:20,430
you know the the lawsuit between Musk
and and um OpenAI.

838
00:12:20,430 --> 00:12:20,440
and and um OpenAI.
 

839
00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:21,830
and and um OpenAI.
A bunch of emails were surfaced in that

840
00:12:21,830 --> 00:12:21,840
A bunch of emails were surfaced in that
 

841
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,350
A bunch of emails were surfaced in that
lawsuit which you can go read and in

842
00:12:24,350 --> 00:12:24,360
lawsuit which you can go read and in
 

843
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:25,470
lawsuit which you can go read and in
some of them

844
00:12:25,470 --> 00:12:25,480
some of them
 

845
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:27,310
some of them
the founders of OpenAI were talking back

846
00:12:27,310 --> 00:12:27,320
the founders of OpenAI were talking back
 

847
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,510
the founders of OpenAI were talking back
in like 2017 about how the reason why we

848
00:12:29,510 --> 00:12:29,520
in like 2017 about how the reason why we
 

849
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:30,790
in like 2017 about how the reason why we
made OpenAI

850
00:12:30,790 --> 00:12:30,800
made OpenAI
 

851
00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,190
made OpenAI
was because we were worried that

852
00:12:33,190 --> 00:12:33,200
was because we were worried that
 

853
00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:34,470
was because we were worried that
Demis Hassabis at Google was going to

854
00:12:34,470 --> 00:12:34,480
Demis Hassabis at Google was going to
 

855
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,150
Demis Hassabis at Google was going to
become dictator with AGI. Even back then

856
00:12:37,150 --> 00:12:37,160
become dictator with AGI. Even back then
 

857
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:38,710
become dictator with AGI. Even back then
they were this obviously about more than

858
00:12:38,710 --> 00:12:38,720
they were this obviously about more than
 

859
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:40,870
they were this obviously about more than
just money. Like these these powerful

860
00:12:40,870 --> 00:12:40,880
just money. Like these these powerful
 

861
00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,270
just money. Like these these powerful
CEOs are literally afraid that

862
00:12:44,270 --> 00:12:44,280
CEOs are literally afraid that
 

863
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:45,670
CEOs are literally afraid that
if the other guy gets there first he

864
00:12:45,670 --> 00:12:45,680
if the other guy gets there first he
 

865
00:12:45,680 --> 00:12:48,390
if the other guy gets there first he
might become dictator and they don't

866
00:12:48,390 --> 00:12:48,400
might become dictator and they don't
 

867
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,710
might become dictator and they don't
trust each other and so that's why

868
00:12:50,710 --> 00:12:50,720
trust each other and so that's why
 

869
00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,430
trust each other and so that's why
they are racing as hard as they can so

870
00:12:52,430 --> 00:12:52,440
they are racing as hard as they can so
 

871
00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:53,590
they are racing as hard as they can so
that they're the ones who get there

872
00:12:53,590 --> 00:12:53,600
that they're the ones who get there
 

873
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,670
that they're the ones who get there
first so to speak.

874
00:12:55,670 --> 00:12:55,680
first so to speak.
 

875
00:12:55,680 --> 00:12:56,990
first so to speak.
>> Have you met Sam Altman?

876
00:12:56,990 --> 00:12:57,000
>> Have you met Sam Altman?
 

877
00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:58,030
>> Have you met Sam Altman?
>> Yeah.

878
00:12:58,030 --> 00:12:58,040
>> Yeah.
 

879
00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,070
>> Yeah.
>> And did did that shape your opinion of

880
00:13:00,070 --> 00:13:00,080
>> And did did that shape your opinion of
 

881
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:01,630
>> And did did that shape your opinion of
his incentives or what why he's doing

882
00:13:01,630 --> 00:13:01,640
his incentives or what why he's doing
 

883
00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:02,829
his incentives or what why he's doing
what he's doing? Cuz there's a lot you

884
00:13:02,829 --> 00:13:02,839
what he's doing? Cuz there's a lot you
 

885
00:13:02,839 --> 00:13:04,110
what he's doing? Cuz there's a lot you
know speculated about what his

886
00:13:04,110 --> 00:13:04,120
know speculated about what his
 

887
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:05,430
know speculated about what his
incentives are.

888
00:13:05,430 --> 00:13:05,440
incentives are.
 

889
00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,430
incentives are.
I mean his most recent narrative says

890
00:13:07,430 --> 00:13:07,440
I mean his most recent narrative says
 

891
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:08,990
I mean his most recent narrative says
for the good of humanity. I think that's

892
00:13:08,990 --> 00:13:09,000
for the good of humanity. I think that's
 

893
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:09,310
for the good of humanity. I think that's
what

894
00:13:09,310 --> 00:13:09,320
what
 

895
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:10,310
what
>> Yeah, I mean I think the main thing I've

896
00:13:10,310 --> 00:13:10,320
>> Yeah, I mean I think the main thing I've
 

897
00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:11,350
>> Yeah, I mean I think the main thing I've
learned is don't pay attention to the

898
00:13:11,350 --> 00:13:11,360
learned is don't pay attention to the
 

899
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,110
learned is don't pay attention to the
narratives. You know like uh what they

900
00:13:14,110 --> 00:13:14,120
narratives. You know like uh what they
 

901
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:15,790
narratives. You know like uh what they
say to one person is just different from

902
00:13:15,790 --> 00:13:15,800
say to one person is just different from
 

903
00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:17,350
say to one person is just different from
what they can say to some other person

904
00:13:17,350 --> 00:13:17,360
what they can say to some other person
 

905
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,550
what they can say to some other person
at the same time and what they say in

906
00:13:19,550 --> 00:13:19,560
at the same time and what they say in
 

907
00:13:19,560 --> 00:13:21,230
at the same time and what they say in
public is a third thing entirely. I

908
00:13:21,230 --> 00:13:21,240
public is a third thing entirely. I
 

909
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:22,350
public is a third thing entirely. I
think you should judge people by their

910
00:13:22,350 --> 00:13:22,360
think you should judge people by their
 

911
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,070
think you should judge people by their
actions not by their words.

912
00:13:25,070 --> 00:13:25,080
actions not by their words.
 

913
00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,110
actions not by their words.
>> And why are you no longer at OpenAI?

914
00:13:27,110 --> 00:13:27,120
>> And why are you no longer at OpenAI?
 

915
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:28,910
>> And why are you no longer at OpenAI?
>> Largely the reason that I mentioned. So,

916
00:13:28,910 --> 00:13:28,920
>> Largely the reason that I mentioned. So,
 

917
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:30,630
>> Largely the reason that I mentioned. So,
I became gradually disillusioned with

918
00:13:30,630 --> 00:13:30,640
I became gradually disillusioned with
 

919
00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:32,590
I became gradually disillusioned with
how the company was going to behave.

920
00:13:32,590 --> 00:13:32,600
how the company was going to behave.
 

921
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:33,950
how the company was going to behave.
For example,

922
00:13:33,950 --> 00:13:33,960
For example,
 

923
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,390
For example,
when I first joined in 2022, at least

924
00:13:36,390 --> 00:13:36,400
when I first joined in 2022, at least
 

925
00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:37,950
when I first joined in 2022, at least
the people I talked to, my colleagues at

926
00:13:37,950 --> 00:13:37,960
the people I talked to, my colleagues at
 

927
00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:39,430
the people I talked to, my colleagues at
the company, there was this general

928
00:13:39,430 --> 00:13:39,440
the company, there was this general
 

929
00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,750
the company, there was this general
sense of like, of course we wouldn't

930
00:13:41,750 --> 00:13:41,760
sense of like, of course we wouldn't
 

931
00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,070
sense of like, of course we wouldn't
actually just build super intelligence

932
00:13:44,070 --> 00:13:44,080
actually just build super intelligence
 

933
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:45,710
actually just build super intelligence
as soon as possible. Once we started

934
00:13:45,710 --> 00:13:45,720
as soon as possible. Once we started
 

935
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:46,910
as soon as possible. Once we started
getting really close, like once we

936
00:13:46,910 --> 00:13:46,920
getting really close, like once we
 

937
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:48,910
getting really close, like once we
started getting to AIs that could

938
00:13:48,910 --> 00:13:48,920
started getting to AIs that could
 

939
00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,190
started getting to AIs that could
maybe automate the AI research process,

940
00:13:51,190 --> 00:13:51,200
maybe automate the AI research process,
 

941
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,150
maybe automate the AI research process,
we would pause and figure out how to

942
00:13:53,150 --> 00:13:53,160
we would pause and figure out how to
 

943
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,270
we would pause and figure out how to
make it safe.

944
00:13:55,270 --> 00:13:55,280
make it safe.
 

945
00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:56,270
make it safe.
That's cuz we're the good guys and

946
00:13:56,270 --> 00:13:56,280
That's cuz we're the good guys and
 

947
00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:57,190
That's cuz we're the good guys and
that's obviously the safe thing you

948
00:13:57,190 --> 00:13:57,200
that's obviously the safe thing you
 

949
00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:59,110
that's obviously the safe thing you
should do rather than just going full

950
00:13:59,110 --> 00:13:59,120
should do rather than just going full
 

951
00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,310
should do rather than just going full
speed ahead. But, we're worried about

952
00:14:01,310 --> 00:14:01,320
speed ahead. But, we're worried about
 

953
00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,070
speed ahead. But, we're worried about
other people who might not pause, you

954
00:14:03,070 --> 00:14:03,080
other people who might not pause, you
 

955
00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:04,710
other people who might not pause, you
know, our competitors, Google, for

956
00:14:04,710 --> 00:14:04,720
know, our competitors, Google, for
 

957
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,150
know, our competitors, Google, for
example. And so, that's why we need to

958
00:14:07,150 --> 00:14:07,160
example. And so, that's why we need to
 

959
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,350
example. And so, that's why we need to
be in the lead so that we have that room

960
00:14:09,350 --> 00:14:09,360
be in the lead so that we have that room
 

961
00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:11,310
be in the lead so that we have that room
to do the safe stuff, right? That was

962
00:14:11,310 --> 00:14:11,320
to do the safe stuff, right? That was
 

963
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:14,230
to do the safe stuff, right? That was
sort of like a thing that seemed like

964
00:14:14,230 --> 00:14:14,240
sort of like a thing that seemed like
 

965
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:15,390
sort of like a thing that seemed like
maybe like the median position or

966
00:14:15,390 --> 00:14:15,400
maybe like the median position or
 

967
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:16,990
maybe like the median position or
something among the colleagues I talked

968
00:14:16,990 --> 00:14:17,000
something among the colleagues I talked
 

969
00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,710
something among the colleagues I talked
to when I was there when I started,

970
00:14:18,710 --> 00:14:18,720
to when I was there when I started,
 

971
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,390
to when I was there when I started,
including people like Sam, you know,

972
00:14:20,390 --> 00:14:20,400
including people like Sam, you know,
 

973
00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:22,070
including people like Sam, you know,
including the leadership. And then by

974
00:14:22,070 --> 00:14:22,080
including the leadership. And then by
 

975
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,190
including the leadership. And then by
the time I left, I was like, "Oh man,

976
00:14:23,190 --> 00:14:23,200
the time I left, I was like, "Oh man,
 

977
00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:24,110
the time I left, I was like, "Oh man,
they're really not going to do that, are

978
00:14:24,110 --> 00:14:24,120
they're really not going to do that, are
 

979
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:24,599
they're really not going to do that, are
they?" Like

980
00:14:24,599 --> 00:14:24,609
they?" Like
 

981
00:14:24,609 --> 00:14:25,150
they?" Like
>> [laughter]

982
00:14:25,150 --> 00:14:25,160
>> [laughter]
 

983
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,070
>> [laughter]
>> Like they they've sort of

984
00:14:27,070 --> 00:14:27,080
>> Like they they've sort of
 

985
00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:28,470
>> Like they they've sort of
you know, partly because this has become

986
00:14:28,470 --> 00:14:28,480
you know, partly because this has become
 

987
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,110
you know, partly because this has become
more politicized and they've become

988
00:14:30,110 --> 00:14:30,120
more politicized and they've become
 

989
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,270
more politicized and they've become
bigger and been under more scrutiny,

990
00:14:32,270 --> 00:14:32,280
bigger and been under more scrutiny,
 

991
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:33,390
bigger and been under more scrutiny,
people have started asking like, "Why

992
00:14:33,390 --> 00:14:33,400
people have started asking like, "Why
 

993
00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:34,590
people have started asking like, "Why
are you doing this in the first place if

994
00:14:34,590 --> 00:14:34,600
are you doing this in the first place if
 

995
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,310
are you doing this in the first place if
it's so risky?" And so, they've pivoted

996
00:14:36,310 --> 00:14:36,320
it's so risky?" And so, they've pivoted
 

997
00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:37,590
it's so risky?" And so, they've pivoted
their narrative to being more like,

998
00:14:37,590 --> 00:14:37,600
their narrative to being more like,
 

999
00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:38,870
their narrative to being more like,
"Actually, it's not that risky, you

1000
00:14:38,870 --> 00:14:38,880
"Actually, it's not that risky, you
 

1001
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:39,750
"Actually, it's not that risky, you
know?"

1002
00:14:39,750 --> 00:14:39,760
know?"
 

1003
00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,070
know?"
Um

1004
00:14:41,070 --> 00:14:41,080
Um
 

1005
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:42,550
Um
and so, yeah, I mean, it seems like

1006
00:14:42,550 --> 00:14:42,560
and so, yeah, I mean, it seems like
 

1007
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:44,390
and so, yeah, I mean, it seems like
they're just going to keep going

1008
00:14:44,390 --> 00:14:44,400
they're just going to keep going
 

1009
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,150
they're just going to keep going
roughly as fast as they can and hope

1010
00:14:46,150 --> 00:14:46,160
roughly as fast as they can and hope
 

1011
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:47,710
roughly as fast as they can and hope
that they can figure it out on the way.

1012
00:14:47,710 --> 00:14:47,720
that they can figure it out on the way.
 

1013
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:49,230
that they can figure it out on the way.
>> How did your time at OpenAI come to an

1014
00:14:49,230 --> 00:14:49,240
>> How did your time at OpenAI come to an
 

1015
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:49,790
>> How did your time at OpenAI come to an
end?

1016
00:14:49,790 --> 00:14:49,800
end?
 

1017
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,950
end?
>> Uh I resigned in 2024. I had a nice

1018
00:14:52,950 --> 00:14:52,960
>> Uh I resigned in 2024. I had a nice
 

1019
00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:53,990
>> Uh I resigned in 2024. I had a nice
goodbye party.

1020
00:14:53,990 --> 00:14:54,000
goodbye party.
 

1021
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:55,190
goodbye party.
>> What were the reasons you gave for

1022
00:14:55,190 --> 00:14:55,200
>> What were the reasons you gave for
 

1023
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:56,750
>> What were the reasons you gave for
quitting OpenAI?

1024
00:14:56,750 --> 00:14:56,760
quitting OpenAI?
 

1025
00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:58,270
quitting OpenAI?
>> I thought that we were rationalizing too

1026
00:14:58,270 --> 00:14:58,280
>> I thought that we were rationalizing too
 

1027
00:14:58,280 --> 00:14:59,950
>> I thought that we were rationalizing too
much and that we needed to think more

1028
00:14:59,950 --> 00:14:59,960
much and that we needed to think more
 

1029
00:14:59,960 --> 00:15:00,829
much and that we needed to think more
about what would actually be good for

1030
00:15:00,829 --> 00:15:00,839
about what would actually be good for
 

1031
00:15:00,839 --> 00:15:03,910
about what would actually be good for
the world. Um I wanted more freedom to

1032
00:15:03,910 --> 00:15:03,920
the world. Um I wanted more freedom to
 

1033
00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:05,390
the world. Um I wanted more freedom to
publish.

1034
00:15:05,390 --> 00:15:05,400
publish.
 

1035
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,950
publish.
So, at OpenAI, as it became a bigger

1036
00:15:07,950 --> 00:15:07,960
So, at OpenAI, as it became a bigger
 

1037
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:09,150
So, at OpenAI, as it became a bigger
company,

1038
00:15:09,150 --> 00:15:09,160
company,
 

1039
00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,550
company,
it became more of a normal tech company

1040
00:15:11,550 --> 00:15:11,560
it became more of a normal tech company
 

1041
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,990
it became more of a normal tech company
with incentives and, you know, a PR

1042
00:15:13,990 --> 00:15:14,000
with incentives and, you know, a PR
 

1043
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:15,910
with incentives and, you know, a PR
department and things like that. And so,

1044
00:15:15,910 --> 00:15:15,920
department and things like that. And so,
 

1045
00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,350
department and things like that. And so,
it started becoming more difficult to um

1046
00:15:19,350 --> 00:15:19,360
it started becoming more difficult to um
 

1047
00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:20,510
it started becoming more difficult to um
to publish the sort of research that I

1048
00:15:20,510 --> 00:15:20,520
to publish the sort of research that I
 

1049
00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:21,990
to publish the sort of research that I
was doing. For example, those scenarios

1050
00:15:21,990 --> 00:15:22,000
was doing. For example, those scenarios
 

1051
00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:23,950
was doing. For example, those scenarios
that I mentioned, couldn't uh couldn't

1052
00:15:23,950 --> 00:15:23,960
that I mentioned, couldn't uh couldn't
 

1053
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:25,750
that I mentioned, couldn't uh couldn't
publish those, right? They're just for

1054
00:15:25,750 --> 00:15:25,760
publish those, right? They're just for
 

1055
00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,270
publish those, right? They're just for
internal use.

1056
00:15:27,270 --> 00:15:27,280
internal use.
 

1057
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,830
internal use.
I thought that that was a shame because

1058
00:15:29,830 --> 00:15:29,840
I thought that that was a shame because
 

1059
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:31,910
I thought that that was a shame because
right now most of the world is kind of

1060
00:15:31,910 --> 00:15:31,920
right now most of the world is kind of
 

1061
00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:32,950
right now most of the world is kind of
asleep at the wheel and doesn't really

1062
00:15:32,950 --> 00:15:32,960
asleep at the wheel and doesn't really
 

1063
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:34,310
asleep at the wheel and doesn't really
realize what's going on with AI and

1064
00:15:34,310 --> 00:15:34,320
realize what's going on with AI and
 

1065
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:35,790
realize what's going on with AI and
doesn't really realize what's coming in

1066
00:15:35,790 --> 00:15:35,800
doesn't really realize what's coming in
 

1067
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,910
doesn't really realize what's coming in
the pipeline a couple years from now.

1068
00:15:37,910 --> 00:15:37,920
the pipeline a couple years from now.
 

1069
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:39,470
the pipeline a couple years from now.
And the companies aren't really

1070
00:15:39,470 --> 00:15:39,480
And the companies aren't really
 

1071
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,350
And the companies aren't really
incentivized to tell people that much

1072
00:15:41,350 --> 00:15:41,360
incentivized to tell people that much
 

1073
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:42,590
incentivized to tell people that much
about it. I mean,

1074
00:15:42,590 --> 00:15:42,600
about it. I mean,
 

1075
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,470
about it. I mean,
they say some vague stuff in a sort of

1076
00:15:44,470 --> 00:15:44,480
they say some vague stuff in a sort of
 

1077
00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:46,110
they say some vague stuff in a sort of
hypey way, but

1078
00:15:46,110 --> 00:15:46,120
hypey way, but
 

1079
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,510
hypey way, but
um

1080
00:15:48,510 --> 00:15:48,520

 

1081
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:49,390

you know, well, they didn't want me to

1082
00:15:49,390 --> 00:15:49,400
you know, well, they didn't want me to
 

1083
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:50,870
you know, well, they didn't want me to
publish the scenario, for example,

1084
00:15:50,870 --> 00:15:50,880
publish the scenario, for example,
 

1085
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:52,390
publish the scenario, for example,
laying out like here's

1086
00:15:52,390 --> 00:15:52,400
laying out like here's
 

1087
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,030
laying out like here's
how things might actually look.

1088
00:15:54,030 --> 00:15:54,040
how things might actually look.
 

1089
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:55,150
how things might actually look.
>> I'm just kind of super curious as to

1090
00:15:55,150 --> 00:15:55,160
>> I'm just kind of super curious as to
 

1091
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:56,470
>> I'm just kind of super curious as to
what it's like being in a company like

1092
00:15:56,470 --> 00:15:56,480
what it's like being in a company like
 

1093
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,070
what it's like being in a company like
that when they you know, chat GPT-3 is

1094
00:15:59,070 --> 00:15:59,080
that when they you know, chat GPT-3 is
 

1095
00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:00,790
that when they you know, chat GPT-3 is
released. You were there at that time,

1096
00:16:00,790 --> 00:16:00,800
released. You were there at that time,
 

1097
00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:01,110
released. You were there at that time,
right?

1098
00:16:01,110 --> 00:16:01,120
right?
 

1099
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:01,870
right?
>> Mhm.

1100
00:16:01,870 --> 00:16:01,880
>> Mhm.
 

1101
00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:03,030
>> Mhm.
>> Um which was a moment where I think the

1102
00:16:03,030 --> 00:16:03,040
>> Um which was a moment where I think the
 

1103
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:04,750
>> Um which was a moment where I think the
whole world stood up and realized that

1104
00:16:04,750 --> 00:16:04,760
whole world stood up and realized that
 

1105
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,830
whole world stood up and realized that
this technology was

1106
00:16:06,830 --> 00:16:06,840
this technology was
 

1107
00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:07,990
this technology was
powerful.

1108
00:16:07,990 --> 00:16:08,000
powerful.
 

1109
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:08,230
powerful.
>> Yeah.

1110
00:16:08,230 --> 00:16:08,240
>> Yeah.
 

1111
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:09,550
>> Yeah.
>> Um and the conversation really began

1112
00:16:09,550 --> 00:16:09,560
>> Um and the conversation really began
 

1113
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:11,910
>> Um and the conversation really began
from a society level.

1114
00:16:11,910 --> 00:16:11,920
from a society level.
 

1115
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,390
from a society level.
Um company starts growing super quickly.

1116
00:16:14,390 --> 00:16:14,400
Um company starts growing super quickly.
 

1117
00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:14,910
Um company starts growing super quickly.
>> Yeah.

1118
00:16:14,910 --> 00:16:14,920
>> Yeah.
 

1119
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:16,030
>> Yeah.
>> Quicker than I think anybody could ever

1120
00:16:16,030 --> 00:16:16,040
>> Quicker than I think anybody could ever
 

1121
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:17,430
>> Quicker than I think anybody could ever
have imagined.

1122
00:16:17,430 --> 00:16:17,440
have imagined.
 

1123
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,630
have imagined.
And what what was it like inside there?

1124
00:16:19,630 --> 00:16:19,640
And what what was it like inside there?
 

1125
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:21,830
And what what was it like inside there?
What did you see change um over over

1126
00:16:21,830 --> 00:16:21,840
What did you see change um over over
 

1127
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:22,990
What did you see change um over over
that period of time?

1128
00:16:22,990 --> 00:16:23,000
that period of time?
 

1129
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:24,590
that period of time?
>> I remember one all-hands meeting where

1130
00:16:24,590 --> 00:16:24,600
>> I remember one all-hands meeting where
 

1131
00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:25,950
>> I remember one all-hands meeting where
Ilya said something like

1132
00:16:25,950 --> 00:16:25,960
Ilya said something like
 

1133
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:26,670
Ilya said something like
>> Ilya being

1134
00:16:26,670 --> 00:16:26,680
>> Ilya being
 

1135
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,790
>> Ilya being
>> Ilya Sutskever, who was um head of

1136
00:16:28,790 --> 00:16:28,800
>> Ilya Sutskever, who was um head of
 

1137
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:30,630
>> Ilya Sutskever, who was um head of
research at that time. He said something

1138
00:16:30,630 --> 00:16:30,640
research at that time. He said something
 

1139
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,030
research at that time. He said something
like, "Okay, now the world is starting

1140
00:16:32,030 --> 00:16:32,040
like, "Okay, now the world is starting
 

1141
00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:33,590
like, "Okay, now the world is starting
to pay attention. Each of you is going

1142
00:16:33,590 --> 00:16:33,600
to pay attention. Each of you is going
 

1143
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:34,990
to pay attention. Each of you is going
to be the most popular person at every

1144
00:16:34,990 --> 00:16:35,000
to be the most popular person at every
 

1145
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:36,390
to be the most popular person at every
party

1146
00:16:36,390 --> 00:16:36,400
party
 

1147
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,390
party
uh for the next year.

1148
00:16:38,390 --> 00:16:38,400
uh for the next year.
 

1149
00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:39,710
uh for the next year.
Don't let it get to your head. Focus on

1150
00:16:39,710 --> 00:16:39,720
Don't let it get to your head. Focus on
 

1151
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,496
Don't let it get to your head. Focus on
the mission. Got to build AGI."

1152
00:16:41,496 --> 00:16:41,506
the mission. Got to build AGI."
 

1153
00:16:41,506 --> 00:16:41,990
the mission. Got to build AGI."
>> [laughter]

1154
00:16:41,990 --> 00:16:42,000
>> [laughter]
 

1155
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:43,950
>> [laughter]
>> The company grew a lot. It already

1156
00:16:43,950 --> 00:16:43,960
>> The company grew a lot. It already
 

1157
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:45,550
>> The company grew a lot. It already
wasn't really feeling like a nonprofit

1158
00:16:45,550 --> 00:16:45,560
wasn't really feeling like a nonprofit
 

1159
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:47,390
wasn't really feeling like a nonprofit
when I joined, but it definitely didn't

1160
00:16:47,390 --> 00:16:47,400
when I joined, but it definitely didn't
 

1161
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:48,790
when I joined, but it definitely didn't
feel like a nonprofit by the time I

1162
00:16:48,790 --> 00:16:48,800
feel like a nonprofit by the time I
 

1163
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,550
feel like a nonprofit by the time I
left. Um lots of new people came in.

1164
00:16:52,550 --> 00:16:52,560
left. Um lots of new people came in.
 

1165
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,710
left. Um lots of new people came in.
Ironically, the like

1166
00:16:54,710 --> 00:16:54,720
Ironically, the like
 

1167
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,790
Ironically, the like
amount of conversation about

1168
00:16:57,790 --> 00:16:57,800
amount of conversation about
 

1169
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,230
amount of conversation about
superintelligence and the implications

1170
00:17:00,230 --> 00:17:00,240
superintelligence and the implications
 

1171
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,270
superintelligence and the implications
of superintelligence arguably you sort

1172
00:17:02,270 --> 00:17:02,280
of superintelligence arguably you sort
 

1173
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,590
of superintelligence arguably you sort
of went down over time

1174
00:17:04,590 --> 00:17:04,600
of went down over time
 

1175
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,670
of went down over time
due to this growth, right? So, because

1176
00:17:07,670 --> 00:17:07,680
due to this growth, right? So, because
 

1177
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:08,910
due to this growth, right? So, because
the company would like double and then

1178
00:17:08,910 --> 00:17:08,920
the company would like double and then
 

1179
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:10,470
the company would like double and then
double again and then double again, all

1180
00:17:10,470 --> 00:17:10,480
double again and then double again, all
 

1181
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,110
double again and then double again, all
these new people were coming in from

1182
00:17:12,110 --> 00:17:12,120
these new people were coming in from
 

1183
00:17:12,120 --> 00:17:13,829
these new people were coming in from
other parts of the tech industry who

1184
00:17:13,829 --> 00:17:13,839
other parts of the tech industry who
 

1185
00:17:13,839 --> 00:17:14,829
other parts of the tech industry who
hadn't really been thinking about these

1186
00:17:14,829 --> 00:17:14,839
hadn't really been thinking about these
 

1187
00:17:14,839 --> 00:17:15,990
hadn't really been thinking about these
things and were attracted by the high

1188
00:17:15,990 --> 00:17:16,000
things and were attracted by the high
 

1189
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:16,870
things and were attracted by the high
salaries.

1190
00:17:16,870 --> 00:17:16,880
salaries.
 

1191
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,550
salaries.
>> You lost $2 million

1192
00:17:18,550 --> 00:17:18,560
>> You lost $2 million
 

1193
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,829
>> You lost $2 million
for not signing an anti-disparagement

1194
00:17:20,829 --> 00:17:20,839
for not signing an anti-disparagement
 

1195
00:17:20,839 --> 00:17:21,870
for not signing an anti-disparagement
clause,

1196
00:17:21,870 --> 00:17:21,880
clause,
 

1197
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:23,670
clause,
which would mean you could speak you

1198
00:17:23,670 --> 00:17:23,680
which would mean you could speak you
 

1199
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,350
which would mean you could speak you
couldn't criticize the company.

1200
00:17:25,350 --> 00:17:25,360
couldn't criticize the company.
 

1201
00:17:25,360 --> 00:17:27,550
couldn't criticize the company.
>> Ah, yes. Well, so um I got to keep the

1202
00:17:27,550 --> 00:17:27,560
>> Ah, yes. Well, so um I got to keep the
 

1203
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:28,189
>> Ah, yes. Well, so um I got to keep the
money.

1204
00:17:28,189 --> 00:17:28,199
money.
 

1205
00:17:28,199 --> 00:17:28,870
money.
>> Oh, you got to keep the money?

1206
00:17:28,870 --> 00:17:28,880
>> Oh, you got to keep the money?
 

1207
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,710
>> Oh, you got to keep the money?
>> what happened was after I had left, said

1208
00:17:31,710 --> 00:17:31,720
>> what happened was after I had left, said
 

1209
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,510
>> what happened was after I had left, said
my goodbyes, etc.

1210
00:17:33,510 --> 00:17:33,520
my goodbyes, etc.
 

1211
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,630
my goodbyes, etc.
Um I got the the exit paperwork and it

1212
00:17:36,630 --> 00:17:36,640
Um I got the the exit paperwork and it
 

1213
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,070
Um I got the the exit paperwork and it
included this clause that said you

1214
00:17:38,070 --> 00:17:38,080
included this clause that said you
 

1215
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:39,390
included this clause that said you
basically have to agree not to criticize

1216
00:17:39,390 --> 00:17:39,400
basically have to agree not to criticize
 

1217
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:40,790
basically have to agree not to criticize
the company again.

1218
00:17:40,790 --> 00:17:40,800
the company again.
 

1219
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:42,150
the company again.
Um and also a clause saying you can't

1220
00:17:42,150 --> 00:17:42,160
Um and also a clause saying you can't
 

1221
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:43,750
Um and also a clause saying you can't
tell anyone about this.

1222
00:17:43,750 --> 00:17:43,760
tell anyone about this.
 

1223
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,790
tell anyone about this.
And so

1224
00:17:45,790 --> 00:17:45,800
And so
 

1225
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:47,910
And so
I thought that was kind of

1226
00:17:47,910 --> 00:17:47,920
I thought that was kind of
 

1227
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:49,350
I thought that was kind of
rich coming from a nonprofit that's

1228
00:17:49,350 --> 00:17:49,360
rich coming from a nonprofit that's
 

1229
00:17:49,360 --> 00:17:50,510
rich coming from a nonprofit that's
supposed to be,

1230
00:17:50,510 --> 00:17:50,520
supposed to be,
 

1231
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:51,430
supposed to be,
you know, for the benefit of all

1232
00:17:51,430 --> 00:17:51,440
you know, for the benefit of all
 

1233
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,630
you know, for the benefit of all
humanity. So, I didn't sign it. And if

1234
00:17:54,630 --> 00:17:54,640
humanity. So, I didn't sign it. And if
 

1235
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:55,950
humanity. So, I didn't sign it. And if
you don't sign, you don't get to keep

1236
00:17:55,950 --> 00:17:55,960
you don't sign, you don't get to keep
 

1237
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,150
you don't sign, you don't get to keep
your equity. So, your compensation, you

1238
00:17:58,150 --> 00:17:58,160
your equity. So, your compensation, you
 

1239
00:17:58,160 --> 00:17:59,950
your equity. So, your compensation, you
know, what what they pay you is a bunch

1240
00:17:59,950 --> 00:17:59,960
know, what what they pay you is a bunch
 

1241
00:17:59,960 --> 00:18:02,510
know, what what they pay you is a bunch
of money and then also a bunch of

1242
00:18:02,510 --> 00:18:02,520
of money and then also a bunch of
 

1243
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,710
of money and then also a bunch of
stock, basically. But then they had this

1244
00:18:04,710 --> 00:18:04,720
stock, basically. But then they had this
 

1245
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,470
stock, basically. But then they had this
stuff in the contract that

1246
00:18:06,470 --> 00:18:06,480
stuff in the contract that
 

1247
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,590
stuff in the contract that
they get to yank back your your stock if

1248
00:18:09,590 --> 00:18:09,600
they get to yank back your your stock if
 

1249
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:11,590
they get to yank back your your stock if
you don't sign this thing.

1250
00:18:11,590 --> 00:18:11,600
you don't sign this thing.
 

1251
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:12,550
you don't sign this thing.
Um

1252
00:18:12,550 --> 00:18:12,560
Um
 

1253
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,430
Um
and my wife and I, you know, were

1254
00:18:15,430 --> 00:18:15,440
and my wife and I, you know, were
 

1255
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,030
and my wife and I, you know, were
uh upset about this. We talked about it

1256
00:18:17,030 --> 00:18:17,040
uh upset about this. We talked about it
 

1257
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,910
uh upset about this. We talked about it
for like a month or two, consulted some

1258
00:18:18,910 --> 00:18:18,920
for like a month or two, consulted some
 

1259
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:20,950
for like a month or two, consulted some
lawyers, um and then ultimately decided

1260
00:18:20,950 --> 00:18:20,960
lawyers, um and then ultimately decided
 

1261
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:22,790
lawyers, um and then ultimately decided
to just refuse to sign.

1262
00:18:22,790 --> 00:18:22,800
to just refuse to sign.
 

1263
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,470
to just refuse to sign.
>> Which would mean you lost you would have

1264
00:18:24,470 --> 00:18:24,480
>> Which would mean you lost you would have
 

1265
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:25,630
>> Which would mean you lost you would have
lost $2 million.

1266
00:18:25,630 --> 00:18:25,640
lost $2 million.
 

1267
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:27,750
lost $2 million.
>> That's right. Which was like 80% of our

1268
00:18:27,750 --> 00:18:27,760
>> That's right. Which was like 80% of our
 

1269
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,470
>> That's right. Which was like 80% of our
net worth at the time.

1270
00:18:29,470 --> 00:18:29,480
net worth at the time.
 

1271
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,030
net worth at the time.
Um fortunately, uh

1272
00:18:32,030 --> 00:18:32,040
Um fortunately, uh
 

1273
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,910
Um fortunately, uh
it didn't go the way we expected. It

1274
00:18:33,910 --> 00:18:33,920
it didn't go the way we expected. It
 

1275
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,350
it didn't go the way we expected. It
blew up basically on the internet. Like

1276
00:18:36,350 --> 00:18:36,360
blew up basically on the internet. Like
 

1277
00:18:36,360 --> 00:18:37,790
blew up basically on the internet. Like
when people heard that that we had done

1278
00:18:37,790 --> 00:18:37,800
when people heard that that we had done
 

1279
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,190
when people heard that that we had done
this and that we had said no, it became

1280
00:18:40,190 --> 00:18:40,200
this and that we had said no, it became
 

1281
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,070
this and that we had said no, it became
like this huge scandal. Employees at the

1282
00:18:42,070 --> 00:18:42,080
like this huge scandal. Employees at the
 

1283
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:43,870
like this huge scandal. Employees at the
company started like asking questions in

1284
00:18:43,870 --> 00:18:43,880
company started like asking questions in
 

1285
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:45,910
company started like asking questions in
Slack and like asking leadership like,

1286
00:18:45,910 --> 00:18:45,920
Slack and like asking leadership like,
 

1287
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,950
Slack and like asking leadership like,
wait, what? Like why are you going to

1288
00:18:47,950 --> 00:18:47,960
wait, what? Like why are you going to
 

1289
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:49,310
wait, what? Like why are you going to
take away our equity? What is this? You

1290
00:18:49,310 --> 00:18:49,320
take away our equity? What is this? You
 

1291
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:50,550
take away our equity? What is this? You
know, cuz a lot of people hadn't really

1292
00:18:50,550 --> 00:18:50,560
know, cuz a lot of people hadn't really
 

1293
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:52,510
know, cuz a lot of people hadn't really
noticed this before. It had been

1294
00:18:52,510 --> 00:18:52,520
noticed this before. It had been
 

1295
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:53,870
noticed this before. It had been
whispered about, but it hadn't been sort

1296
00:18:53,870 --> 00:18:53,880
whispered about, but it hadn't been sort
 

1297
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:54,870
whispered about, but it hadn't been sort
of like

1298
00:18:54,870 --> 00:18:54,880
of like
 

1299
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,190
of like
a thing that most employees knew about.

1300
00:18:57,190 --> 00:18:57,200
a thing that most employees knew about.
 

1301
00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:58,350
a thing that most employees knew about.
Um and so they backtracked and they

1302
00:18:58,350 --> 00:18:58,360
Um and so they backtracked and they
 

1303
00:18:58,360 --> 00:18:59,390
Um and so they backtracked and they
said, "Never mind, never mind. We'll

1304
00:18:59,390 --> 00:18:59,400
said, "Never mind, never mind. We'll
 

1305
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:00,510
said, "Never mind, never mind. We'll
change the paperwork. You can keep the

1306
00:19:00,510 --> 00:19:00,520
change the paperwork. You can keep the
 

1307
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:01,670
change the paperwork. You can keep the
equity.

1308
00:19:01,670 --> 00:19:01,680
equity.
 

1309
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:02,790
equity.
It's fine."

1310
00:19:02,790 --> 00:19:02,800
It's fine."
 

1311
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,030
It's fine."
>> And so management came out and said he

1312
00:19:04,030 --> 00:19:04,040
>> And so management came out and said he
 

1313
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:05,710
>> And so management came out and said he
was embarrassed that he didn't realize

1314
00:19:05,710 --> 00:19:05,720
was embarrassed that he didn't realize
 

1315
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:06,110
was embarrassed that he didn't realize
this was going

1316
00:19:06,110 --> 00:19:06,120
this was going
 

1317
00:19:06,120 --> 00:19:08,190
this was going
>> Yeah, he had no idea, apparently.

1318
00:19:08,190 --> 00:19:08,200
>> Yeah, he had no idea, apparently.
 

1319
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:09,430
>> Yeah, he had no idea, apparently.
>> You don't believe him?

1320
00:19:09,430 --> 00:19:09,440
>> You don't believe him?
 

1321
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:10,310
>> You don't believe him?
>> No.

1322
00:19:10,310 --> 00:19:10,320
>> No.
 

1323
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:11,750
>> No.
I think he probably knew. And if he

1324
00:19:11,750 --> 00:19:11,760
I think he probably knew. And if he
 

1325
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:12,870
I think he probably knew. And if he
didn't know, then people close to him

1326
00:19:12,870 --> 00:19:12,880
didn't know, then people close to him
 

1327
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:14,750
didn't know, then people close to him
probably did, such as his head lawyer.

1328
00:19:14,750 --> 00:19:14,760
probably did, such as his head lawyer.
 

1329
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,630
probably did, such as his head lawyer.
>> Why did you decide not to take the $2

1330
00:19:17,630 --> 00:19:17,640
>> Why did you decide not to take the $2
 

1331
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,230
>> Why did you decide not to take the $2
million?

1332
00:19:19,230 --> 00:19:19,240
million?
 

1333
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:20,670
million?
I mean,

1334
00:19:20,670 --> 00:19:20,680
I mean,
 

1335
00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:22,230
I mean,
most people would have, I think.

1336
00:19:22,230 --> 00:19:22,240
most people would have, I think.
 

1337
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:23,470
most people would have, I think.
>> It's true, most people would have, and

1338
00:19:23,470 --> 00:19:23,480
>> It's true, most people would have, and
 

1339
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:24,910
>> It's true, most people would have, and
most people did.

1340
00:19:24,910 --> 00:19:24,920
most people did.
 

1341
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,910
most people did.
And you know, money is nice, but like

1342
00:19:27,910 --> 00:19:27,920
And you know, money is nice, but like
 

1343
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:29,790
And you know, money is nice, but like
it's not the only thing, you know?

1344
00:19:29,790 --> 00:19:29,800
it's not the only thing, you know?
 

1345
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:31,150
it's not the only thing, you know?
Sometimes it's good to take a stand on

1346
00:19:31,150 --> 00:19:31,160
Sometimes it's good to take a stand on
 

1347
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:32,470
Sometimes it's good to take a stand on
principle.

1348
00:19:32,470 --> 00:19:32,480
principle.
 

1349
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:33,830
principle.
I I keep mentioning superintelligence.

1350
00:19:33,830 --> 00:19:33,840
I I keep mentioning superintelligence.
 

1351
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:35,670
I I keep mentioning superintelligence.
Perhaps I should say more about like

1352
00:19:35,670 --> 00:19:35,680
Perhaps I should say more about like
 

1353
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:36,830
Perhaps I should say more about like
the

1354
00:19:36,830 --> 00:19:36,840
the
 

1355
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,150
the
the sequence of events that the

1356
00:19:38,150 --> 00:19:38,160
the sequence of events that the
 

1357
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,110
the sequence of events that the
companies are planning to do.

1358
00:19:40,110 --> 00:19:40,120
companies are planning to do.
 

1359
00:19:40,120 --> 00:19:41,310
companies are planning to do.
So,

1360
00:19:41,310 --> 00:19:41,320
So,
 

1361
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:42,830
So,
right now, they're focusing on

1362
00:19:42,830 --> 00:19:42,840
right now, they're focusing on
 

1363
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,830
right now, they're focusing on
automating coding. They're taking their

1364
00:19:44,830 --> 00:19:44,840
automating coding. They're taking their
 

1365
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:46,670
automating coding. They're taking their
AIs, they're making them bigger, they're

1366
00:19:46,670 --> 00:19:46,680
AIs, they're making them bigger, they're
 

1367
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,470
AIs, they're making them bigger, they're
training them for longer, and they're

1368
00:19:48,470 --> 00:19:48,480
training them for longer, and they're
 

1369
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,350
training them for longer, and they're
especially focusing the training on

1370
00:19:50,350 --> 00:19:50,360
especially focusing the training on
 

1371
00:19:50,360 --> 00:19:51,910
especially focusing the training on
getting them to be good at autonomously

1372
00:19:51,910 --> 00:19:51,920
getting them to be good at autonomously
 

1373
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,750
getting them to be good at autonomously
writing and editing code. Because

1374
00:19:55,750 --> 00:19:55,760
writing and editing code. Because
 

1375
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:57,230
writing and editing code. Because
uh that will help the companies go

1376
00:19:57,230 --> 00:19:57,240
uh that will help the companies go
 

1377
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:58,790
uh that will help the companies go
faster, right? If they can automate the

1378
00:19:58,790 --> 00:19:58,800
faster, right? If they can automate the
 

1379
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,190
faster, right? If they can automate the
code, then they can do their own work

1380
00:20:01,190 --> 00:20:01,200
code, then they can do their own work
 

1381
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,150
code, then they can do their own work
better and faster, and accelerate

1382
00:20:03,150 --> 00:20:03,160
better and faster, and accelerate
 

1383
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:04,230
better and faster, and accelerate
progress.

1384
00:20:04,230 --> 00:20:04,240
progress.
 

1385
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:05,390
progress.
The next step, which they've already

1386
00:20:05,390 --> 00:20:05,400
The next step, which they've already
 

1387
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,390
The next step, which they've already
begun, is to

1388
00:20:07,390 --> 00:20:07,400
begun, is to
 

1389
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,230
begun, is to
look at the rest of the research process

1390
00:20:09,230 --> 00:20:09,240
look at the rest of the research process
 

1391
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,470
look at the rest of the research process
as well. Coming up with ideas,

1392
00:20:11,470 --> 00:20:11,480
as well. Coming up with ideas,
 

1393
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,870
as well. Coming up with ideas,
um analyzing experiments, communicating

1394
00:20:13,870 --> 00:20:13,880
um analyzing experiments, communicating
 

1395
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:15,430
um analyzing experiments, communicating
those results.

1396
00:20:15,430 --> 00:20:15,440
those results.
 

1397
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,310
those results.
All the other parts of of the research

1398
00:20:17,310 --> 00:20:17,320
All the other parts of of the research
 

1399
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:18,390
All the other parts of of the research
process, they're trying to figure out

1400
00:20:18,390 --> 00:20:18,400
process, they're trying to figure out
 

1401
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:19,870
process, they're trying to figure out
how to train AIs to be good at those as

1402
00:20:19,870 --> 00:20:19,880
how to train AIs to be good at those as
 

1403
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:20,750
how to train AIs to be good at those as
well.

1404
00:20:20,750 --> 00:20:20,760
well.
 

1405
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,750
well.
So that they can have AIs do the entire

1406
00:20:22,750 --> 00:20:22,760
So that they can have AIs do the entire
 

1407
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,310
So that they can have AIs do the entire
thing autonomously.

1408
00:20:24,310 --> 00:20:24,320
thing autonomously.
 

1409
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,030
thing autonomously.
>> When you say do the entire thing, what

1410
00:20:26,030 --> 00:20:26,040
>> When you say do the entire thing, what
 

1411
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:26,710
>> When you say do the entire thing, what
you mean [clears throat]

1412
00:20:26,710 --> 00:20:26,720
you mean [clears throat]
 

1413
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:27,750
you mean [clears throat]
do the entire thing?

1414
00:20:27,750 --> 00:20:27,760
do the entire thing?
 

1415
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:29,270
do the entire thing?
>> So like Anthropic and OpenAI in

1416
00:20:29,270 --> 00:20:29,280
>> So like Anthropic and OpenAI in
 

1417
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,230
>> So like Anthropic and OpenAI in
particular are trying to automate

1418
00:20:31,230 --> 00:20:31,240
particular are trying to automate
 

1419
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:32,830
particular are trying to automate
themselves. Like they're trying to make

1420
00:20:32,830 --> 00:20:32,840
themselves. Like they're trying to make
 

1421
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:34,150
themselves. Like they're trying to make
it the case that

1422
00:20:34,150 --> 00:20:34,160
it the case that
 

1423
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:35,310
it the case that
um they don't really need human

1424
00:20:35,310 --> 00:20:35,320
um they don't really need human
 

1425
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,910
um they don't really need human
employees anymore. Uh they just have a

1426
00:20:37,910 --> 00:20:37,920
employees anymore. Uh they just have a
 

1427
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,190
employees anymore. Uh they just have a
giant army of AIs that's

1428
00:20:40,190 --> 00:20:40,200
giant army of AIs that's
 

1429
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:41,630
giant army of AIs that's
churning away,

1430
00:20:41,630 --> 00:20:41,640
churning away,
 

1431
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:43,670
churning away,
doing all this autonomous research to

1432
00:20:43,670 --> 00:20:43,680
doing all this autonomous research to
 

1433
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,670
doing all this autonomous research to
make better AIs, to train the new AIs,

1434
00:20:46,670 --> 00:20:46,680
make better AIs, to train the new AIs,
 

1435
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:48,510
make better AIs, to train the new AIs,
put them in charge, so they can make

1436
00:20:48,510 --> 00:20:48,520
put them in charge, so they can make
 

1437
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:50,670
put them in charge, so they can make
even better AIs and so forth. And of

1438
00:20:50,670 --> 00:20:50,680
even better AIs and so forth. And of
 

1439
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,630
even better AIs and so forth. And of
course, not just not all just happening

1440
00:20:52,630 --> 00:20:52,640
course, not just not all just happening
 

1441
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:53,990
course, not just not all just happening
internally, but also like interfacing

1442
00:20:53,990 --> 00:20:54,000
internally, but also like interfacing
 

1443
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:55,190
internally, but also like interfacing
with the world, right? Like going out

1444
00:20:55,190 --> 00:20:55,200
with the world, right? Like going out
 

1445
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:56,150
with the world, right? Like going out
and talking to people, collecting the

1446
00:20:56,150 --> 00:20:56,160
and talking to people, collecting the
 

1447
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:57,630
and talking to people, collecting the
data, setting up the training

1448
00:20:57,630 --> 00:20:57,640
data, setting up the training
 

1449
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:58,870
data, setting up the training
environments,

1450
00:20:58,870 --> 00:20:58,880
environments,
 

1451
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,550
environments,
doing the business deals, and so forth.

1452
00:21:00,550 --> 00:21:00,560
doing the business deals, and so forth.
 

1453
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,590
doing the business deals, and so forth.
Like they're they're trying to automate

1454
00:21:02,590 --> 00:21:02,600
Like they're they're trying to automate
 

1455
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,270
Like they're they're trying to automate
all of that. The reason why they're

1456
00:21:04,270 --> 00:21:04,280
all of that. The reason why they're
 

1457
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,310
all of that. The reason why they're
doing this is because they're trying to

1458
00:21:06,310 --> 00:21:06,320
doing this is because they're trying to
 

1459
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,030
doing this is because they're trying to
get to a position where they have

1460
00:21:09,030 --> 00:21:09,040
get to a position where they have
 

1461
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,630
get to a position where they have
AIs that are superhuman

1462
00:21:11,630 --> 00:21:11,640
AIs that are superhuman
 

1463
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,590
AIs that are superhuman
at everything, superintelligence, and

1464
00:21:13,590 --> 00:21:13,600
at everything, superintelligence, and
 

1465
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:14,750
at everything, superintelligence, and
they're trying to get there before their

1466
00:21:14,750 --> 00:21:14,760
they're trying to get there before their
 

1467
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:16,190
they're trying to get there before their
competitors do.

1468
00:21:16,190 --> 00:21:16,200
competitors do.
 

1469
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:17,390
competitors do.
Needless to say, this is incredibly

1470
00:21:17,390 --> 00:21:17,400
Needless to say, this is incredibly
 

1471
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,510
Needless to say, this is incredibly
dangerous, I would say, you know. And in

1472
00:21:20,510 --> 00:21:20,520
dangerous, I would say, you know. And in
 

1473
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,350
dangerous, I would say, you know. And in
addition to being dangerous,

1474
00:21:22,350 --> 00:21:22,360
addition to being dangerous,
 

1475
00:21:22,360 --> 00:21:24,190
addition to being dangerous,
it's a power grab, right? Like if they

1476
00:21:24,190 --> 00:21:24,200
it's a power grab, right? Like if they
 

1477
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,510
it's a power grab, right? Like if they
actually succeed at this, then they'll

1478
00:21:26,510 --> 00:21:26,520
actually succeed at this, then they'll
 

1479
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,710
actually succeed at this, then they'll
be sitting on top of this army of

1480
00:21:28,710 --> 00:21:28,720
be sitting on top of this army of
 

1481
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,190
be sitting on top of this army of
superhuman AIs that will give them

1482
00:21:31,190 --> 00:21:31,200
superhuman AIs that will give them
 

1483
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,630
superhuman AIs that will give them
immense leverage over all sorts of other

1484
00:21:33,630 --> 00:21:33,640
immense leverage over all sorts of other
 

1485
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,830
immense leverage over all sorts of other
actors in the economy in so far as they

1486
00:21:35,830 --> 00:21:35,840
actors in the economy in so far as they
 

1487
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:36,790
actors in the economy in so far as they
can work out something with the

1488
00:21:36,790 --> 00:21:36,800
can work out something with the
 

1489
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,470
can work out something with the
presidents and, you know, integrate it

1490
00:21:38,470 --> 00:21:38,480
presidents and, you know, integrate it
 

1491
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,230
presidents and, you know, integrate it
into the military or whatever, then that

1492
00:21:40,230 --> 00:21:40,240
into the military or whatever, then that
 

1493
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,750
into the military or whatever, then that
would give the US immense hard power

1494
00:21:42,750 --> 00:21:42,760
would give the US immense hard power
 

1495
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,670
would give the US immense hard power
over all of the countries, right?

1496
00:21:44,670 --> 00:21:44,680
over all of the countries, right?
 

1497
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,030
over all of the countries, right?
Obviously, nobody knows exactly when

1498
00:21:46,030 --> 00:21:46,040
Obviously, nobody knows exactly when
 

1499
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:47,470
Obviously, nobody knows exactly when
this is happening.

1500
00:21:47,470 --> 00:21:47,480
this is happening.
 

1501
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,030
this is happening.
But a very disquieting thing has

1502
00:21:49,030 --> 00:21:49,040
But a very disquieting thing has
 

1503
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,830
But a very disquieting thing has
happened over the last year to me,

1504
00:21:51,830 --> 00:21:51,840
happened over the last year to me,
 

1505
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,430
happened over the last year to me,
which is that when we published AI 2027,

1506
00:21:55,430 --> 00:21:55,440
which is that when we published AI 2027,
 

1507
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,430
which is that when we published AI 2027,
people were generally of the opinion

1508
00:21:57,430 --> 00:21:57,440
people were generally of the opinion
 

1509
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,790
people were generally of the opinion
that my timelines were too short.

1510
00:21:59,790 --> 00:21:59,800
that my timelines were too short.
 

1511
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,070
that my timelines were too short.
And that like probably it would take

1512
00:22:01,070 --> 00:22:01,080
And that like probably it would take
 

1513
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,390
And that like probably it would take
more than 2027 until we got to

1514
00:22:04,390 --> 00:22:04,400
more than 2027 until we got to
 

1515
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,110
more than 2027 until we got to
the sort of events that I was just

1516
00:22:06,110 --> 00:22:06,120
the sort of events that I was just
 

1517
00:22:06,120 --> 00:22:07,750
the sort of events that I was just
mentioning, you know, uh recursive

1518
00:22:07,750 --> 00:22:07,760
mentioning, you know, uh recursive
 

1519
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:09,350
mentioning, you know, uh recursive
self-improvement, AIs automating the

1520
00:22:09,350 --> 00:22:09,360
self-improvement, AIs automating the
 

1521
00:22:09,360 --> 00:22:10,630
self-improvement, AIs automating the
whole research process,

1522
00:22:10,630 --> 00:22:10,640
whole research process,
 

1523
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,150
whole research process,
superintelligence.

1524
00:22:12,150 --> 00:22:12,160
superintelligence.
 

1525
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,190
superintelligence.
These These types of milestones

1526
00:22:14,190 --> 00:22:14,200
These These types of milestones
 

1527
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,990
These These types of milestones
um they happen in 2027 in AI 2027,

1528
00:22:17,990 --> 00:22:18,000
um they happen in 2027 in AI 2027,
 

1529
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:19,230
um they happen in 2027 in AI 2027,
>> which is this research paper you

1530
00:22:19,230 --> 00:22:19,240
>> which is this research paper you
 

1531
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:19,710
>> which is this research paper you
published.

1532
00:22:19,710 --> 00:22:19,720
published.
 

1533
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:20,990
published.
>> That's right. It's It's a scenario

1534
00:22:20,990 --> 00:22:21,000
>> That's right. It's It's a scenario
 

1535
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,150
>> That's right. It's It's a scenario
forecast that sort of lays out like

1536
00:22:23,150 --> 00:22:23,160
forecast that sort of lays out like
 

1537
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,190
forecast that sort of lays out like
month by month a possible future

1538
00:22:25,190 --> 00:22:25,200
month by month a possible future
 

1539
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,590
month by month a possible future
trajectory. There was sort of like At

1540
00:22:27,590 --> 00:22:27,600
trajectory. There was sort of like At
 

1541
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:28,910
trajectory. There was sort of like At
the time that we started writing, it was

1542
00:22:28,910 --> 00:22:28,920
the time that we started writing, it was
 

1543
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,430
the time that we started writing, it was
my best guess as to what would actually

1544
00:22:30,430 --> 00:22:30,440
my best guess as to what would actually
 

1545
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:31,750
my best guess as to what would actually
happen. Obviously, there's lots of

1546
00:22:31,750 --> 00:22:31,760
happen. Obviously, there's lots of
 

1547
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,550
happen. Obviously, there's lots of
uncertainty, but, you know, I thought

1548
00:22:33,550 --> 00:22:33,560
uncertainty, but, you know, I thought
 

1549
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,430
uncertainty, but, you know, I thought
it's valuable to make a concrete guess

1550
00:22:35,430 --> 00:22:35,440
it's valuable to make a concrete guess
 

1551
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:36,470
it's valuable to make a concrete guess
just to sort of see what it might look

1552
00:22:36,470 --> 00:22:36,480
just to sort of see what it might look
 

1553
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:37,350
just to sort of see what it might look
like.

1554
00:22:37,350 --> 00:22:37,360
like.
 

1555
00:22:37,360 --> 00:22:38,790
like.
And at the time we were writing this, a

1556
00:22:38,790 --> 00:22:38,800
And at the time we were writing this, a
 

1557
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,230
And at the time we were writing this, a
lot of my friends in the AI industry and

1558
00:22:41,230 --> 00:22:41,240
lot of my friends in the AI industry and
 

1559
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,110
lot of my friends in the AI industry and
in nonprofits and so forth that work on

1560
00:22:44,110 --> 00:22:44,120
in nonprofits and so forth that work on
 

1561
00:22:44,120 --> 00:22:45,830
in nonprofits and so forth that work on
AI, a lot of people were saying like,

1562
00:22:45,830 --> 00:22:45,840
AI, a lot of people were saying like,
 

1563
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,150
AI, a lot of people were saying like,
"Yeah, that stuff's going to happen, but

1564
00:22:47,150 --> 00:22:47,160
"Yeah, that stuff's going to happen, but
 

1565
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:48,270
"Yeah, that stuff's going to happen, but
like it'll probably take a couple years

1566
00:22:48,270 --> 00:22:48,280
like it'll probably take a couple years
 

1567
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,710
like it'll probably take a couple years
longer than you think."

1568
00:22:50,710 --> 00:22:50,720
longer than you think."
 

1569
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,350
longer than you think."
And now

1570
00:22:53,350 --> 00:22:53,360
And now
 

1571
00:22:53,360 --> 00:22:55,710
And now
it's more 50/50, especially when I go

1572
00:22:55,710 --> 00:22:55,720
it's more 50/50, especially when I go
 

1573
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,270
it's more 50/50, especially when I go
talk to people at Anthropic and OpenAI.

1574
00:22:58,270 --> 00:22:58,280
talk to people at Anthropic and OpenAI.
 

1575
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,390
talk to people at Anthropic and OpenAI.
They're often like,

1576
00:23:00,390 --> 00:23:00,400
They're often like,
 

1577
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,310
They're often like,
"Yeah, no, 2027, that's basically what's

1578
00:23:02,310 --> 00:23:02,320
"Yeah, no, 2027, that's basically what's
 

1579
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:03,670
"Yeah, no, 2027, that's basically what's
going to happen.

1580
00:23:03,670 --> 00:23:03,680
going to happen.
 

1581
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:05,990
going to happen.
Just like you wrote. Why did you Why did

1582
00:23:05,990 --> 00:23:06,000
Just like you wrote. Why did you Why did
 

1583
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:07,630
Just like you wrote. Why did you Why did
you become Why did you update your

1584
00:23:07,630 --> 00:23:07,640
you become Why did you update your
 

1585
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,270
you become Why did you update your
timelines? Oh, yeah, context for this is

1586
00:23:10,270 --> 00:23:10,280
timelines? Oh, yeah, context for this is
 

1587
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,190
timelines? Oh, yeah, context for this is
after after writing AI 2027,

1588
00:23:13,190 --> 00:23:13,200
after after writing AI 2027,
 

1589
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:14,750
after after writing AI 2027,
I shifted my timelines to be a little

1590
00:23:14,750 --> 00:23:14,760
I shifted my timelines to be a little
 

1591
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:15,870
I shifted my timelines to be a little
bit more conservative. So, at the time

1592
00:23:15,870 --> 00:23:15,880
bit more conservative. So, at the time
 

1593
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,190
bit more conservative. So, at the time
that we published, my 50% mark was in

1594
00:23:18,190 --> 00:23:18,200
that we published, my 50% mark was in
 

1595
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,790
that we published, my 50% mark was in
2028, not in 2027.

1596
00:23:20,790 --> 00:23:20,800
2028, not in 2027.
 

1597
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,910
2028, not in 2027.
And then after we published, progress

1598
00:23:22,910 --> 00:23:22,920
And then after we published, progress
 

1599
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:23,990
And then after we published, progress
just seemed like it was going a bit

1600
00:23:23,990 --> 00:23:24,000
just seemed like it was going a bit
 

1601
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,150
just seemed like it was going a bit
slower, and so I updated to 2030.

1602
00:23:27,150 --> 00:23:27,160
slower, and so I updated to 2030.
 

1603
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:28,590
slower, and so I updated to 2030.
Which is, you know, still could happen

1604
00:23:28,590 --> 00:23:28,600
Which is, you know, still could happen
 

1605
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,350
Which is, you know, still could happen
sooner, could happen later. 2030.

1606
00:23:31,350 --> 00:23:31,360
sooner, could happen later. 2030.
 

1607
00:23:31,360 --> 00:23:33,870
sooner, could happen later. 2030.
Um but now, when I talk to people in in

1608
00:23:33,870 --> 00:23:33,880
Um but now, when I talk to people in in
 

1609
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:35,350
Um but now, when I talk to people in in
the company, they're like, "It's not

1610
00:23:35,350 --> 00:23:35,360
the company, they're like, "It's not
 

1611
00:23:35,360 --> 00:23:36,670
the company, they're like, "It's not
going to take that long."

1612
00:23:36,670 --> 00:23:36,680
going to take that long."
 

1613
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,510
going to take that long."
They're like, "Oh, you need to shorten

1614
00:23:38,510 --> 00:23:38,520
They're like, "Oh, you need to shorten
 

1615
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,710
They're like, "Oh, you need to shorten
them again. Like, get them back to 2027

1616
00:23:40,710 --> 00:23:40,720
them again. Like, get them back to 2027
 

1617
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,470
them again. Like, get them back to 2027
or 2028, you know."

1618
00:23:42,470 --> 00:23:42,480
or 2028, you know."
 

1619
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,030
or 2028, you know."
Um so, that's a bit disquieting. Um

1620
00:23:45,030 --> 00:23:45,040
Um so, that's a bit disquieting. Um
 

1621
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:46,350
Um so, that's a bit disquieting. Um
again, don't know how long it's going to

1622
00:23:46,350 --> 00:23:46,360
again, don't know how long it's going to
 

1623
00:23:46,360 --> 00:23:49,150
again, don't know how long it's going to
take, but this is the stated plans of

1624
00:23:49,150 --> 00:23:49,160
take, but this is the stated plans of
 

1625
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:50,230
take, but this is the stated plans of
the uh companies is to do this

1626
00:23:50,230 --> 00:23:50,240
the uh companies is to do this
 

1627
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:51,910
the uh companies is to do this
incredibly dangerous thing, and they

1628
00:23:51,910 --> 00:23:51,920
incredibly dangerous thing, and they
 

1629
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:52,990
incredibly dangerous thing, and they
think that they're just a few years

1630
00:23:52,990 --> 00:23:53,000
think that they're just a few years
 

1631
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:53,590
think that they're just a few years
away.

1632
00:23:53,590 --> 00:23:53,600
away.
 

1633
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,070
away.
>> So, you wrote this um report here, What

1634
00:23:56,070 --> 00:23:56,080
>> So, you wrote this um report here, What
 

1635
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,630
>> So, you wrote this um report here, What
2026 Looks Like, and you wrote this in

1636
00:23:58,630 --> 00:23:58,640
2026 Looks Like, and you wrote this in
 

1637
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,150
2026 Looks Like, and you wrote this in
2021,

1638
00:24:00,150 --> 00:24:00,160
2021,
 

1639
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,230
2021,
and it was remarkably accurate. Helped

1640
00:24:02,230 --> 00:24:02,240
and it was remarkably accurate. Helped
 

1641
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,150
and it was remarkably accurate. Helped
make a name for yourself amongst um

1642
00:24:05,150 --> 00:24:05,160
make a name for yourself amongst um
 

1643
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,310
make a name for yourself amongst um
amongst uh everybody in AI. And I Which

1644
00:24:07,310 --> 00:24:07,320
amongst uh everybody in AI. And I Which
 

1645
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:08,590
amongst uh everybody in AI. And I Which
one was it that J.D. Vance, the vice

1646
00:24:08,590 --> 00:24:08,600
one was it that J.D. Vance, the vice
 

1647
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:09,910
one was it that J.D. Vance, the vice
president, read? I think it was this

1648
00:24:09,910 --> 00:24:09,920
president, read? I think it was this
 

1649
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,030
president, read? I think it was this
one, wasn't it? Yeah, this one. Um

1650
00:24:12,030 --> 00:24:12,040
one, wasn't it? Yeah, this one. Um
 

1651
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:13,550
one, wasn't it? Yeah, this one. Um
and then so, then you published this

1652
00:24:13,550 --> 00:24:13,560
and then so, then you published this
 

1653
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,550
and then so, then you published this
one, AI 2027, and this was published, I

1654
00:24:15,550 --> 00:24:15,560
one, AI 2027, and this was published, I
 

1655
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,590
one, AI 2027, and this was published, I
believe, in 2025.

1656
00:24:17,590 --> 00:24:17,600
believe, in 2025.
 

1657
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:18,790
believe, in 2025.
>> Uh yes, that's right. April.

1658
00:24:18,790 --> 00:24:18,800
>> Uh yes, that's right. April.
 

1659
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:19,310
>> Uh yes, that's right. April.
>> Yeah.

1660
00:24:19,310 --> 00:24:19,320
>> Yeah.
 

1661
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,230
>> Yeah.
>> What were you forecasting in here? What

1662
00:24:21,230 --> 00:24:21,240
>> What were you forecasting in here? What
 

1663
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:22,510
>> What were you forecasting in here? What
are What are the key things that you

1664
00:24:22,510 --> 00:24:22,520
are What are the key things that you
 

1665
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:23,550
are What are the key things that you
said in here for people that haven't

1666
00:24:23,550 --> 00:24:23,560
said in here for people that haven't
 

1667
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:24,150
said in here for people that haven't
read it?

1668
00:24:24,150 --> 00:24:24,160
read it?
 

1669
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,350
read it?
>> The high-level version of it is

1670
00:24:26,350 --> 00:24:26,360
>> The high-level version of it is
 

1671
00:24:26,360 --> 00:24:28,270
>> The high-level version of it is
they automate the coding, then they

1672
00:24:28,270 --> 00:24:28,280
they automate the coding, then they
 

1673
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:29,190
they automate the coding, then they
automate the rest of the research

1674
00:24:29,190 --> 00:24:29,200
automate the rest of the research
 

1675
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,110
automate the rest of the research
process, then the pace of progress

1676
00:24:31,110 --> 00:24:31,120
process, then the pace of progress
 

1677
00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:32,670
process, then the pace of progress
accelerates dramatically. They get to

1678
00:24:32,670 --> 00:24:32,680
accelerates dramatically. They get to
 

1679
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,270
accelerates dramatically. They get to
superintelligence. They're working with

1680
00:24:34,270 --> 00:24:34,280
superintelligence. They're working with
 

1681
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:35,910
superintelligence. They're working with
the government, specifically the

1682
00:24:35,910 --> 00:24:35,920
the government, specifically the
 

1683
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:36,990
the government, specifically the
president, the executive branch

1684
00:24:36,990 --> 00:24:37,000
president, the executive branch
 

1685
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,750
president, the executive branch
naturally wants to control this

1686
00:24:38,750 --> 00:24:38,760
naturally wants to control this
 

1687
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,190
naturally wants to control this
technology, in other words, wants to use

1688
00:24:40,190 --> 00:24:40,200
technology, in other words, wants to use
 

1689
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:41,950
technology, in other words, wants to use
it to beat China and integrate it into

1690
00:24:41,950 --> 00:24:41,960
it to beat China and integrate it into
 

1691
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,582
it to beat China and integrate it into
the military and so forth. By this

1692
00:24:43,582 --> 00:24:43,592
the military and so forth. By this
 

1693
00:24:43,592 --> 00:24:45,190
the military and so forth. By this
[snorts] point, it's sort of

1694
00:24:45,190 --> 00:24:45,200
[snorts] point, it's sort of
 

1695
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:46,950
[snorts] point, it's sort of
doing basically all the work itself. I

1696
00:24:46,950 --> 00:24:46,960
doing basically all the work itself. I
 

1697
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,430
doing basically all the work itself. I
mean, it's it's superintelligence, so

1698
00:24:49,430 --> 00:24:49,440
mean, it's it's superintelligence, so
 

1699
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:50,710
mean, it's it's superintelligence, so
it's coming up with all these great

1700
00:24:50,710 --> 00:24:50,720
it's coming up with all these great
 

1701
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,190
it's coming up with all these great
ideas for how to integrate itself into

1702
00:24:52,190 --> 00:24:52,200
ideas for how to integrate itself into
 

1703
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:52,950
ideas for how to integrate itself into
everything and all these new

1704
00:24:52,950 --> 00:24:52,960
everything and all these new
 

1705
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,110
everything and all these new
technologies it's invented and so forth.

1706
00:24:55,110 --> 00:24:55,120
technologies it's invented and so forth.
 

1707
00:24:55,120 --> 00:24:57,030
technologies it's invented and so forth.
And uh because of the race dynamics and

1708
00:24:57,030 --> 00:24:57,040
And uh because of the race dynamics and
 

1709
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,350
And uh because of the race dynamics and
because of the profit motive, they end

1710
00:24:58,350 --> 00:24:58,360
because of the profit motive, they end
 

1711
00:24:58,360 --> 00:25:00,190
because of the profit motive, they end
up deploying it everywhere. And it

1712
00:25:00,190 --> 00:25:00,200
up deploying it everywhere. And it
 

1713
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:01,550
up deploying it everywhere. And it
builds robot factories that build more

1714
00:25:01,550 --> 00:25:01,560
builds robot factories that build more
 

1715
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:02,870
builds robot factories that build more
robots that build more robot factories,

1716
00:25:02,870 --> 00:25:02,880
robots that build more robot factories,
 

1717
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,870
robots that build more robot factories,
etc. Transforms the world entirely.

1718
00:25:05,870 --> 00:25:05,880
etc. Transforms the world entirely.
 

1719
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,830
etc. Transforms the world entirely.
And then at some point it has enough

1720
00:25:07,830 --> 00:25:07,840
And then at some point it has enough
 

1721
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,430
And then at some point it has enough
power it, meaning the AIs, have enough

1722
00:25:10,430 --> 00:25:10,440
power it, meaning the AIs, have enough
 

1723
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,430
power it, meaning the AIs, have enough
power that they don't have to pretend to

1724
00:25:13,430 --> 00:25:13,440
power that they don't have to pretend to
 

1725
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,070
power that they don't have to pretend to
to be aligned anymore.

1726
00:25:15,070 --> 00:25:15,080
to be aligned anymore.
 

1727
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,150
to be aligned anymore.
Right? Um then they

1728
00:25:17,150 --> 00:25:17,160
Right? Um then they
 

1729
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,590
Right? Um then they
stop listening to orders.

1730
00:25:19,590 --> 00:25:19,600
stop listening to orders.
 

1731
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,430
stop listening to orders.
That's the race ending

1732
00:25:22,430 --> 00:25:22,440
That's the race ending
 

1733
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,110
That's the race ending
of the 2027.

1734
00:25:24,110 --> 00:25:24,120
of the 2027.
 

1735
00:25:24,120 --> 00:25:25,510
of the 2027.
We also wrote a sort of different

1736
00:25:25,510 --> 00:25:25,520
We also wrote a sort of different
 

1737
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,910
We also wrote a sort of different
branch, which is the slow down ending,

1738
00:25:27,910 --> 00:25:27,920
branch, which is the slow down ending,
 

1739
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,390
branch, which is the slow down ending,
which is intended to sort of illustrate

1740
00:25:30,390 --> 00:25:30,400
which is intended to sort of illustrate
 

1741
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,110
which is intended to sort of illustrate
the concentration of power issues um

1742
00:25:33,110 --> 00:25:33,120
the concentration of power issues um
 

1743
00:25:33,120 --> 00:25:35,030
the concentration of power issues um
that I mentioned previously. So,

1744
00:25:35,030 --> 00:25:35,040
that I mentioned previously. So,
 

1745
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:36,830
that I mentioned previously. So,
what if hypothetically

1746
00:25:36,830 --> 00:25:36,840
what if hypothetically
 

1747
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,630
what if hypothetically
the alignment issues get sorted out

1748
00:25:38,630 --> 00:25:38,640
the alignment issues get sorted out
 

1749
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:39,990
the alignment issues get sorted out
sufficiently quickly? Like what if it

1750
00:25:39,990 --> 00:25:40,000
sufficiently quickly? Like what if it
 

1751
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,550
sufficiently quickly? Like what if it
turns out that like

1752
00:25:41,550 --> 00:25:41,560
turns out that like
 

1753
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,670
turns out that like
it's not too hard. With 2 months of slow

1754
00:25:43,670 --> 00:25:43,680
it's not too hard. With 2 months of slow
 

1755
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,070
it's not too hard. With 2 months of slow
down, we can figure out how to make the

1756
00:25:45,070 --> 00:25:45,080
down, we can figure out how to make the
 

1757
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,150
down, we can figure out how to make the
AIs robustly do what we want um and have

1758
00:25:48,150 --> 00:25:48,160
AIs robustly do what we want um and have
 

1759
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:49,670
AIs robustly do what we want um and have
the values that we want them to have.

1760
00:25:49,670 --> 00:25:49,680
the values that we want them to have.
 

1761
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,230
the values that we want them to have.
So, that's one possible branch. And in

1762
00:25:51,230 --> 00:25:51,240
So, that's one possible branch. And in
 

1763
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,670
So, that's one possible branch. And in
that branch, uh it looks pretty similar,

1764
00:25:53,670 --> 00:25:53,680
that branch, uh it looks pretty similar,
 

1765
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,150
that branch, uh it looks pretty similar,
you know, they take the jobs, beat

1766
00:25:56,150 --> 00:25:56,160
you know, they take the jobs, beat
 

1767
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,470
you know, they take the jobs, beat
China, etc. Um

1768
00:25:58,470 --> 00:25:58,480
China, etc. Um
 

1769
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,790
China, etc. Um
but instead of the AIs ultimately

1770
00:26:00,790 --> 00:26:00,800
but instead of the AIs ultimately
 

1771
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:02,670
but instead of the AIs ultimately
killing everyone, they create this sort

1772
00:26:02,670 --> 00:26:02,680
killing everyone, they create this sort
 

1773
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,030
killing everyone, they create this sort
of amazing utopia. But the amazing

1774
00:26:05,030 --> 00:26:05,040
of amazing utopia. But the amazing
 

1775
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:06,550
of amazing utopia. But the amazing
utopia is

1776
00:26:06,550 --> 00:26:06,560
utopia is
 

1777
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,510
utopia is
whatever the people who control the AIs

1778
00:26:08,510 --> 00:26:08,520
whatever the people who control the AIs
 

1779
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,550
whatever the people who control the AIs
want it to be, right? And so that would

1780
00:26:10,550 --> 00:26:10,560
want it to be, right? And so that would
 

1781
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:11,670
want it to be, right? And so that would
be a very small group of people, like

1782
00:26:11,670 --> 00:26:11,680
be a very small group of people, like
 

1783
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:15,750
be a very small group of people, like
the presidents, some CEOs, etc.

1784
00:26:15,750 --> 00:26:15,760
the presidents, some CEOs, etc.
 

1785
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,830
the presidents, some CEOs, etc.
>> There should be a button just down below

1786
00:26:17,830 --> 00:26:17,840
>> There should be a button just down below
 

1787
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,790
>> There should be a button just down below
here. And if it says subscribe, you're

1788
00:26:19,790 --> 00:26:19,800
here. And if it says subscribe, you're
 

1789
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,710
here. And if it says subscribe, you're
already subscribed. If it says subscribe

1790
00:26:21,710 --> 00:26:21,720
already subscribed. If it says subscribe
 

1791
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,910
already subscribed. If it says subscribe
buh, that means you're not yet. And if

1792
00:26:23,910 --> 00:26:23,920
buh, that means you're not yet. And if
 

1793
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:25,070
buh, that means you're not yet. And if
you're not subscribed, please could you

1794
00:26:25,070 --> 00:26:25,080
you're not subscribed, please could you
 

1795
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,230
you're not subscribed, please could you
do us a favor and hit that button. It

1796
00:26:26,230 --> 00:26:26,240
do us a favor and hit that button. It
 

1797
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:27,990
do us a favor and hit that button. It
helps to show more than you know. And

1798
00:26:27,990 --> 00:26:28,000
helps to show more than you know. And
 

1799
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:29,430
helps to show more than you know. And
according to the algorithm, you're

1800
00:26:29,430 --> 00:26:29,440
according to the algorithm, you're
 

1801
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,030
according to the algorithm, you're
someone that watches our show, but you

1802
00:26:31,030 --> 00:26:31,040
someone that watches our show, but you
 

1803
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:32,270
someone that watches our show, but you
haven't yet hit that button. Thank you

1804
00:26:32,270 --> 00:26:32,280
haven't yet hit that button. Thank you
 

1805
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,470
haven't yet hit that button. Thank you
so much. Is there any possibility, do

1806
00:26:34,470 --> 00:26:34,480
so much. Is there any possibility, do
 

1807
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,270
so much. Is there any possibility, do
you think, that we never get to this

1808
00:26:36,270 --> 00:26:36,280
you think, that we never get to this
 

1809
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,590
you think, that we never get to this
thing called AGI? And and how do we

1810
00:26:38,590 --> 00:26:38,600
thing called AGI? And and how do we
 

1811
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,950
thing called AGI? And and how do we
distinguish AGI from this term super

1812
00:26:40,950 --> 00:26:40,960
distinguish AGI from this term super
 

1813
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,190
distinguish AGI from this term super
intelligence? What's the difference?

1814
00:26:42,190 --> 00:26:42,200
intelligence? What's the difference?
 

1815
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,870
intelligence? What's the difference?
>> Yeah, so the difference is that AGI is a

1816
00:26:43,870 --> 00:26:43,880
>> Yeah, so the difference is that AGI is a
 

1817
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,070
>> Yeah, so the difference is that AGI is a
more vague uh and weak term.

1818
00:26:46,070 --> 00:26:46,080
more vague uh and weak term.
 

1819
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:46,630
more vague uh and weak term.
>> Okay.

1820
00:26:46,630 --> 00:26:46,640
>> Okay.
 

1821
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,030
>> Okay.
>> So, super intelligence is a bit more

1822
00:26:48,030 --> 00:26:48,040
>> So, super intelligence is a bit more
 

1823
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:49,350
>> So, super intelligence is a bit more
precisely defined. It's better than the

1824
00:26:49,350 --> 00:26:49,360
precisely defined. It's better than the
 

1825
00:26:49,360 --> 00:26:51,070
precisely defined. It's better than the
best humans at everything, faster and

1826
00:26:51,070 --> 00:26:51,080
best humans at everything, faster and
 

1827
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,670
best humans at everything, faster and
cheaper. Um AGI is more like it stands

1828
00:26:53,670 --> 00:26:53,680
cheaper. Um AGI is more like it stands
 

1829
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,070
cheaper. Um AGI is more like it stands
for artificial general intelligence,

1830
00:26:55,070 --> 00:26:55,080
for artificial general intelligence,
 

1831
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,110
for artificial general intelligence,
which means AIs that can do things in

1832
00:26:57,110 --> 00:26:57,120
which means AIs that can do things in
 

1833
00:26:57,120 --> 00:26:58,670
which means AIs that can do things in
general rather than like some specific

1834
00:26:58,670 --> 00:26:58,680
general rather than like some specific
 

1835
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,710
general rather than like some specific
task. Yeah. And so arguably we've

1836
00:27:00,710 --> 00:27:00,720
task. Yeah. And so arguably we've
 

1837
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,750
task. Yeah. And so arguably we've
already achieved AGI, right? If you use

1838
00:27:02,750 --> 00:27:02,760
already achieved AGI, right? If you use
 

1839
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:04,430
already achieved AGI, right? If you use
cloud code or something like that, it's

1840
00:27:04,430 --> 00:27:04,440
cloud code or something like that, it's
 

1841
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,190
cloud code or something like that, it's
like it can do a lot of stuff. It's it's

1842
00:27:06,190 --> 00:27:06,200
like it can do a lot of stuff. It's it's
 

1843
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:07,550
like it can do a lot of stuff. It's it's
almost kind of like a little employee

1844
00:27:07,550 --> 00:27:07,560
almost kind of like a little employee
 

1845
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,430
almost kind of like a little employee
that you can like have go do stuff. So

1846
00:27:09,430 --> 00:27:09,440
that you can like have go do stuff. So
 

1847
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,230
that you can like have go do stuff. So
it's it is quite general.

1848
00:27:11,230 --> 00:27:11,240
it's it is quite general.
 

1849
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:12,990
it's it is quite general.
It's not maximally general though. Can't

1850
00:27:12,990 --> 00:27:13,000
It's not maximally general though. Can't
 

1851
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,030
It's not maximally general though. Can't
do everything. Whereas super

1852
00:27:14,030 --> 00:27:14,040
do everything. Whereas super
 

1853
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,790
do everything. Whereas super
intelligence by definition

1854
00:27:15,790 --> 00:27:15,800
intelligence by definition
 

1855
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:16,790
intelligence by definition
can do all the things that a human can

1856
00:27:16,790 --> 00:27:16,800
can do all the things that a human can
 

1857
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:17,750
can do all the things that a human can
do but better.

1858
00:27:17,750 --> 00:27:17,760
do but better.
 

1859
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,310
do but better.
>> And how does this sort of overlap with

1860
00:27:19,310 --> 00:27:19,320
>> And how does this sort of overlap with
 

1861
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,190
>> And how does this sort of overlap with
robotics? Because obviously that we're

1862
00:27:21,190 --> 00:27:21,200
robotics? Because obviously that we're
 

1863
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:22,390
robotics? Because obviously that we're
seeing this huge robotics boom at the

1864
00:27:22,390 --> 00:27:22,400
seeing this huge robotics boom at the
 

1865
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,670
seeing this huge robotics boom at the
moment. There are some real world things

1866
00:27:24,670 --> 00:27:24,680
moment. There are some real world things
 

1867
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,110
moment. There are some real world things
that humans can still do because these

1868
00:27:26,110 --> 00:27:26,120
that humans can still do because these
 

1869
00:27:26,120 --> 00:27:28,030
that humans can still do because these
AIs are still stuck in my computer.

1870
00:27:28,030 --> 00:27:28,040
AIs are still stuck in my computer.
 

1871
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,190
AIs are still stuck in my computer.
>> The way that people talk about this is

1872
00:27:29,190 --> 00:27:29,200
>> The way that people talk about this is
 

1873
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:30,150
>> The way that people talk about this is
that they

1874
00:27:30,150 --> 00:27:30,160
that they
 

1875
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:31,870
that they
basically just say we've achieved super

1876
00:27:31,870 --> 00:27:31,880
basically just say we've achieved super
 

1877
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,830
basically just say we've achieved super
intelligence for cognitive tasks. Then

1878
00:27:33,830 --> 00:27:33,840
intelligence for cognitive tasks. Then
 

1879
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:35,830
intelligence for cognitive tasks. Then
you can talk about like

1880
00:27:35,830 --> 00:27:35,840
you can talk about like
 

1881
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,190
you can talk about like
full super intelligence that can do the

1882
00:27:37,190 --> 00:27:37,200
full super intelligence that can do the
 

1883
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:38,030
full super intelligence that can do the
physical stuff.

1884
00:27:38,030 --> 00:27:38,040
physical stuff.
 

1885
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:39,350
physical stuff.
>> And are we going to get there? Are we

1886
00:27:39,350 --> 00:27:39,360
>> And are we going to get there? Are we
 

1887
00:27:39,360 --> 00:27:40,630
>> And are we going to get there? Are we
going to get there with both?

1888
00:27:40,630 --> 00:27:40,640
going to get there with both?
 

1889
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,150
going to get there with both?
>> I think so. I mean again, this is not

1890
00:27:42,150 --> 00:27:42,160
>> I think so. I mean again, this is not
 

1891
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:43,790
>> I think so. I mean again, this is not
something that we can be certain about.

1892
00:27:43,790 --> 00:27:43,800
something that we can be certain about.
 

1893
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,270
something that we can be certain about.
Um, you asked like is it possible we'll

1894
00:27:45,270 --> 00:27:45,280
Um, you asked like is it possible we'll
 

1895
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:46,470
Um, you asked like is it possible we'll
never get there? Yes, it's possible

1896
00:27:46,470 --> 00:27:46,480
never get there? Yes, it's possible
 

1897
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:47,670
never get there? Yes, it's possible
we'll never get there.

1898
00:27:47,670 --> 00:27:47,680
we'll never get there.
 

1899
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,270
we'll never get there.
I don't think it's likely though.

1900
00:27:49,270 --> 00:27:49,280
I don't think it's likely though.
 

1901
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:50,630
I don't think it's likely though.
I think that

1902
00:27:50,630 --> 00:27:50,640
I think that
 

1903
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:51,950
I think that
there's nothing sort of like magical

1904
00:27:51,950 --> 00:27:51,960
there's nothing sort of like magical
 

1905
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,030
there's nothing sort of like magical
about the human brain. It's

1906
00:27:54,030 --> 00:27:54,040
about the human brain. It's
 

1907
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,870
about the human brain. It's
you know, um, it's just a bunch of

1908
00:27:55,870 --> 00:27:55,880
you know, um, it's just a bunch of
 

1909
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,270
you know, um, it's just a bunch of
neurons. It is possible for a digital

1910
00:27:58,270 --> 00:27:58,280
neurons. It is possible for a digital
 

1911
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,070
neurons. It is possible for a digital
system to

1912
00:28:00,070 --> 00:28:00,080
system to
 

1913
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:01,910
system to
do similar functions in the same way

1914
00:28:01,910 --> 00:28:01,920
do similar functions in the same way
 

1915
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:03,310
do similar functions in the same way
that like,

1916
00:28:03,310 --> 00:28:03,320
that like,
 

1917
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,670
that like,
you know, a plane can fly

1918
00:28:05,670 --> 00:28:05,680
you know, a plane can fly
 

1919
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:06,950
you know, a plane can fly
just like a bird. Not in the same way as

1920
00:28:06,950 --> 00:28:06,960
just like a bird. Not in the same way as
 

1921
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,190
just like a bird. Not in the same way as
a bird necessarily. Like it doesn't have

1922
00:28:09,190 --> 00:28:09,200
a bird necessarily. Like it doesn't have
 

1923
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,310
a bird necessarily. Like it doesn't have
it's not flying in the same way that a

1924
00:28:10,310 --> 00:28:10,320
it's not flying in the same way that a
 

1925
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,390
it's not flying in the same way that a
bird flies, but it flies, you know?

1926
00:28:12,390 --> 00:28:12,400
bird flies, but it flies, you know?
 

1927
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,230
bird flies, but it flies, you know?
Um, so so it does seem like yeah, like

1928
00:28:15,230 --> 00:28:15,240
Um, so so it does seem like yeah, like
 

1929
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,030
Um, so so it does seem like yeah, like
seems possible.

1930
00:28:16,030 --> 00:28:16,040
seems possible.
 

1931
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:16,830
seems possible.
>> You've written all these, you know,

1932
00:28:16,830 --> 00:28:16,840
>> You've written all these, you know,
 

1933
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:18,230
>> You've written all these, you know,
these research reports. You're working

1934
00:28:18,230 --> 00:28:18,240
these research reports. You're working
 

1935
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:19,950
these research reports. You're working
on another one that'll be released um,

1936
00:28:19,950 --> 00:28:19,960
on another one that'll be released um,
 

1937
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,670
on another one that'll be released um,
likely on the 9th of July.

1938
00:28:22,670 --> 00:28:22,680
likely on the 9th of July.
 

1939
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,350
likely on the 9th of July.
You have worked inside OpenAI. You then

1940
00:28:25,350 --> 00:28:25,360
You have worked inside OpenAI. You then
 

1941
00:28:25,360 --> 00:28:27,270
You have worked inside OpenAI. You then
quit OpenAI because you were concerned

1942
00:28:27,270 --> 00:28:27,280
quit OpenAI because you were concerned
 

1943
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:28,910
quit OpenAI because you were concerned
about what was going on there and about

1944
00:28:28,910 --> 00:28:28,920
about what was going on there and about
 

1945
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:30,390
about what was going on there and about
the future of the industry. You know

1946
00:28:30,390 --> 00:28:30,400
the future of the industry. You know
 

1947
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,590
the future of the industry. You know
more than I do.

1948
00:28:32,590 --> 00:28:32,600
more than I do.
 

1949
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,190
more than I do.
Are you optimistic about the future or

1950
00:28:35,190 --> 00:28:35,200
Are you optimistic about the future or
 

1951
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,750
Are you optimistic about the future or
pessimistic? Are we heading to a bad

1952
00:28:36,750 --> 00:28:36,760
pessimistic? Are we heading to a bad
 

1953
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,150
pessimistic? Are we heading to a bad
place if things don't change um, based

1954
00:28:39,150 --> 00:28:39,160
place if things don't change um, based
 

1955
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:40,630
place if things don't change um, based
on everything that you know?

1956
00:28:40,630 --> 00:28:40,640
on everything that you know?
 

1957
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,110
on everything that you know?
>> I think we are headed to a bad place if

1958
00:28:42,110 --> 00:28:42,120
>> I think we are headed to a bad place if
 

1959
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:43,870
>> I think we are headed to a bad place if
things don't change. Um, I'm not

1960
00:28:43,870 --> 00:28:43,880
things don't change. Um, I'm not
 

1961
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,750
things don't change. Um, I'm not
confident in that. I would say something

1962
00:28:45,750 --> 00:28:45,760
confident in that. I would say something
 

1963
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:47,830
confident in that. I would say something
like 70%. It's very very hard to

1964
00:28:47,830 --> 00:28:47,840
like 70%. It's very very hard to
 

1965
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:49,310
like 70%. It's very very hard to
predict, of course, but yeah, it seems

1966
00:28:49,310 --> 00:28:49,320
predict, of course, but yeah, it seems
 

1967
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,390
predict, of course, but yeah, it seems
like the current default path is heading

1968
00:28:51,390 --> 00:28:51,400
like the current default path is heading
 

1969
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,070
like the current default path is heading
towards a very, very scary place.

1970
00:28:53,070 --> 00:28:53,080
towards a very, very scary place.
 

1971
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:54,670
towards a very, very scary place.
>> How do you contend with that personally

1972
00:28:54,670 --> 00:28:54,680
>> How do you contend with that personally
 

1973
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:55,590
>> How do you contend with that personally
and emotionally?

1974
00:28:55,590 --> 00:28:55,600
and emotionally?
 

1975
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,030
and emotionally?
>> Um

1976
00:28:57,030 --> 00:28:57,040
>> Um
 

1977
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,950
>> Um
it's rough. I mean, I think it It's the

1978
00:28:58,950 --> 00:28:58,960
it's rough. I mean, I think it It's the
 

1979
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,950
it's rough. I mean, I think it It's the
sort of thing that like

1980
00:29:01,950 --> 00:29:01,960
sort of thing that like
 

1981
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,190
sort of thing that like
gets me down

1982
00:29:04,190 --> 00:29:04,200
gets me down
 

1983
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,590
gets me down
on a regular basis, but also I've been

1984
00:29:06,590 --> 00:29:06,600
on a regular basis, but also I've been
 

1985
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,230
on a regular basis, but also I've been
dealing with this for so many years now

1986
00:29:08,230 --> 00:29:08,240
dealing with this for so many years now
 

1987
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:09,190
dealing with this for so many years now
that

1988
00:29:09,190 --> 00:29:09,200
that
 

1989
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:10,910
that
I've sort of gotten used to it, if that

1990
00:29:10,910 --> 00:29:10,920
I've sort of gotten used to it, if that
 

1991
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:15,390
I've sort of gotten used to it, if that
makes sense. Um

1992
00:29:15,390 --> 00:29:15,400

 

1993
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,790

yeah. Yeah, I I'll put it this way. I

1994
00:29:17,790 --> 00:29:17,800
yeah. Yeah, I I'll put it this way. I
 

1995
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,790
yeah. Yeah, I I'll put it this way. I
would be incredibly happy if all my

1996
00:29:19,790 --> 00:29:19,800
would be incredibly happy if all my
 

1997
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,230
would be incredibly happy if all my
predictions turn out to be wrong and

1998
00:29:22,230 --> 00:29:22,240
predictions turn out to be wrong and
 

1999
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:23,910
predictions turn out to be wrong and
uh and AI hits the wall, for example.

2000
00:29:23,910 --> 00:29:23,920
uh and AI hits the wall, for example.
 

2001
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:25,830
uh and AI hits the wall, for example.
>> It gets you down on a regular basis.

2002
00:29:25,830 --> 00:29:25,840
>> It gets you down on a regular basis.
 

2003
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,710
>> It gets you down on a regular basis.
>> I used to be known as a pretty chipper

2004
00:29:27,710 --> 00:29:27,720
>> I used to be known as a pretty chipper
 

2005
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,070
>> I used to be known as a pretty chipper
and optimistic person, but

2006
00:29:30,070 --> 00:29:30,080
and optimistic person, but
 

2007
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:31,830
and optimistic person, but
um in 2020

2008
00:29:31,830 --> 00:29:31,840
um in 2020
 

2009
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,070
um in 2020
my AI timelines predictions started

2010
00:29:34,070 --> 00:29:34,080
my AI timelines predictions started
 

2011
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,390
my AI timelines predictions started
collapsing due to GPT-3 and the scaling

2012
00:29:37,390 --> 00:29:37,400
collapsing due to GPT-3 and the scaling
 

2013
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,830
collapsing due to GPT-3 and the scaling
laws papers and um the bio anchor

2014
00:29:39,830 --> 00:29:39,840
laws papers and um the bio anchor
 

2015
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,110
laws papers and um the bio anchor
report, which I I can talk about if

2016
00:29:41,110 --> 00:29:41,120
report, which I I can talk about if
 

2017
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:42,870
report, which I I can talk about if
you're interested, but basically some

2018
00:29:42,870 --> 00:29:42,880
you're interested, but basically some
 

2019
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,950
you're interested, but basically some
events happened in 2020 that convinced

2020
00:29:44,950 --> 00:29:44,960
events happened in 2020 that convinced
 

2021
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,030
events happened in 2020 that convinced
me that actually this stuff was like

2022
00:29:47,030 --> 00:29:47,040
me that actually this stuff was like
 

2023
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:48,350
me that actually this stuff was like
quite plausibly coming by the end of the

2024
00:29:48,350 --> 00:29:48,360
quite plausibly coming by the end of the
 

2025
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:49,430
quite plausibly coming by the end of the
decade.

2026
00:29:49,430 --> 00:29:49,440
decade.
 

2027
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:50,590
decade.
And

2028
00:29:50,590 --> 00:29:50,600
And
 

2029
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,270
And
humanity is very obviously not ready for

2030
00:29:52,270 --> 00:29:52,280
humanity is very obviously not ready for
 

2031
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:53,750
humanity is very obviously not ready for
this, you know, in a whole bunch of

2032
00:29:53,750 --> 00:29:53,760
this, you know, in a whole bunch of
 

2033
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,550
this, you know, in a whole bunch of
different ways. And so that's obviously

2034
00:29:55,550 --> 00:29:55,560
different ways. And so that's obviously
 

2035
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:56,310
different ways. And so that's obviously
very scary.

2036
00:29:56,310 --> 00:29:56,320
very scary.
 

2037
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,030
very scary.
>> And that's a extremely scary world

2038
00:29:58,030 --> 00:29:58,040
>> And that's a extremely scary world
 

2039
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:58,990
>> And that's a extremely scary world
because of all the things you've said,

2040
00:29:58,990 --> 00:29:59,000
because of all the things you've said,
 

2041
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:00,590
because of all the things you've said,
but but again, because of this recursive

2042
00:30:00,590 --> 00:30:00,600
but but again, because of this recursive
 

2043
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,390
but but again, because of this recursive
self-improvement where AIs can train

2044
00:30:02,390 --> 00:30:02,400
self-improvement where AIs can train
 

2045
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,150
self-improvement where AIs can train
themselves. And at such point we're

2046
00:30:04,150 --> 00:30:04,160
themselves. And at such point we're
 

2047
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,990
themselves. And at such point we're
starting to lose hold of what's going on

2048
00:30:05,990 --> 00:30:06,000
starting to lose hold of what's going on
 

2049
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:06,350
starting to lose hold of what's going on
here.

2050
00:30:06,350 --> 00:30:06,360
here.
 

2051
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:07,510
here.
>> I mean, the AIs are already training

2052
00:30:07,510 --> 00:30:07,520
>> I mean, the AIs are already training
 

2053
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,070
>> I mean, the AIs are already training
themselves, to be clear. It's more like

2054
00:30:10,070 --> 00:30:10,080
themselves, to be clear. It's more like
 

2055
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,830
themselves, to be clear. It's more like
closing the entire research loop, right?

2056
00:30:11,830 --> 00:30:11,840
closing the entire research loop, right?
 

2057
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:12,230
closing the entire research loop, right?
So

2058
00:30:12,230 --> 00:30:12,240
So
 

2059
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:12,830
So
>> everything.

2060
00:30:12,830 --> 00:30:12,840
>> everything.
 

2061
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,670
>> everything.
>> Yeah, like right now a lot of the

2062
00:30:14,670 --> 00:30:14,680
>> Yeah, like right now a lot of the
 

2063
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,550
>> Yeah, like right now a lot of the
training data is generated by AIs. A lot

2064
00:30:17,550 --> 00:30:17,560
training data is generated by AIs. A lot
 

2065
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,110
training data is generated by AIs. A lot
of the reinforcement, like the grading

2066
00:30:20,110 --> 00:30:20,120
of the reinforcement, like the grading
 

2067
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:21,710
of the reinforcement, like the grading
that happens, doling out of positive and

2068
00:30:21,710 --> 00:30:21,720
that happens, doling out of positive and
 

2069
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,430
that happens, doling out of positive and
negative reinforcement, is itself done

2070
00:30:23,430 --> 00:30:23,440
negative reinforcement, is itself done
 

2071
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:24,070
negative reinforcement, is itself done
by AIs.

2072
00:30:24,070 --> 00:30:24,080
by AIs.
 

2073
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:25,590
by AIs.
>> Can you explain that in layman's terms

2074
00:30:25,590 --> 00:30:25,600
>> Can you explain that in layman's terms
 

2075
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:25,870
>> Can you explain that in layman's terms
for

2076
00:30:25,870 --> 00:30:25,880
for
 

2077
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,110
for
>> Yeah, so an important thing for

2078
00:30:27,110 --> 00:30:27,120
>> Yeah, so an important thing for
 

2079
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,310
>> Yeah, so an important thing for
everybody to understand is that modern

2080
00:30:29,310 --> 00:30:29,320
everybody to understand is that modern
 

2081
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,910
everybody to understand is that modern
AI systems are not software in the

2082
00:30:31,910 --> 00:30:31,920
AI systems are not software in the
 

2083
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:32,990
AI systems are not software in the
normal sense. I mean, they are

2084
00:30:32,990 --> 00:30:33,000
normal sense. I mean, they are
 

2085
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,710
normal sense. I mean, they are
technically software, but

2086
00:30:34,710 --> 00:30:34,720
technically software, but
 

2087
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,670
technically software, but
they're not lines of code, you know?

2088
00:30:36,670 --> 00:30:36,680
they're not lines of code, you know?
 

2089
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,790
they're not lines of code, you know?
It's not like some engineers at

2090
00:30:38,790 --> 00:30:38,800
It's not like some engineers at
 

2091
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,630
It's not like some engineers at
Anthropic went and wrote lines of code

2092
00:30:41,630 --> 00:30:41,640
Anthropic went and wrote lines of code
 

2093
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,870
Anthropic went and wrote lines of code
that basically says like, you know, when

2094
00:30:43,870 --> 00:30:43,880
that basically says like, you know, when
 

2095
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,310
that basically says like, you know, when
the user asks for this type of thing,

2096
00:30:46,310 --> 00:30:46,320
the user asks for this type of thing,
 

2097
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,350
the user asks for this type of thing,
then go do this type of thing for this

2098
00:30:48,350 --> 00:30:48,360
then go do this type of thing for this
 

2099
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:49,990
then go do this type of thing for this
many steps or whatever. There's nothing

2100
00:30:49,990 --> 00:30:50,000
many steps or whatever. There's nothing
 

2101
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,550
many steps or whatever. There's nothing
like that. Instead, it's a neural net,

2102
00:30:51,550 --> 00:30:51,560
like that. Instead, it's a neural net,
 

2103
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:52,070
like that. Instead, it's a neural net,
you know?

2104
00:30:52,070 --> 00:30:52,080
you know?
 

2105
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:53,350
you know?
>> What's that?

2106
00:30:53,350 --> 00:30:53,360
>> What's that?
 

2107
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:54,310
>> What's that?
>> Well,

2108
00:30:54,310 --> 00:30:54,320
>> Well,
 

2109
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:55,630
>> Well,
think about how the brain is a bunch of

2110
00:30:55,630 --> 00:30:55,640
think about how the brain is a bunch of
 

2111
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:56,870
think about how the brain is a bunch of
neurons connected to each other

2112
00:30:56,870 --> 00:30:56,880
neurons connected to each other
 

2113
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:57,430
neurons connected to each other
>> Yeah.

2114
00:30:57,430 --> 00:30:57,440
>> Yeah.
 

2115
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:58,870
>> Yeah.
>> that are firing

2116
00:30:58,870 --> 00:30:58,880
>> that are firing
 

2117
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,630
>> that are firing
um signals back and forth. The brain

2118
00:31:00,630 --> 00:31:00,640
um signals back and forth. The brain
 

2119
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,350
um signals back and forth. The brain
learns over time

2120
00:31:02,350 --> 00:31:02,360
learns over time
 

2121
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,270
learns over time
the types of patterns of firing that

2122
00:31:05,270 --> 00:31:05,280
the types of patterns of firing that
 

2123
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,110
the types of patterns of firing that
caused success, that caused a dopamine

2124
00:31:08,110 --> 00:31:08,120
caused success, that caused a dopamine
 

2125
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,550
caused success, that caused a dopamine
rush, or various other types of feedback

2126
00:31:10,550 --> 00:31:10,560
rush, or various other types of feedback
 

2127
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,150
rush, or various other types of feedback
get reinforced and fire more often. And

2128
00:31:13,150 --> 00:31:13,160
get reinforced and fire more often. And
 

2129
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:14,670
get reinforced and fire more often. And
the types of patterns that caused

2130
00:31:14,670 --> 00:31:14,680
the types of patterns that caused
 

2131
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,230
the types of patterns that caused
failure, like touching a hot stove, get

2132
00:31:17,230 --> 00:31:17,240
failure, like touching a hot stove, get
 

2133
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,550
failure, like touching a hot stove, get
anti-reinforced, they get, you know,

2134
00:31:19,550 --> 00:31:19,560
anti-reinforced, they get, you know,
 

2135
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,630
anti-reinforced, they get, you know,
um destroyed, so that they fire less

2136
00:31:21,630 --> 00:31:21,640
um destroyed, so that they fire less
 

2137
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,110
um destroyed, so that they fire less
often. And as a result of all of that,

2138
00:31:24,110 --> 00:31:24,120
often. And as a result of all of that,
 

2139
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,470
often. And as a result of all of that,
you over the course of years learn to

2140
00:31:27,470 --> 00:31:27,480
you over the course of years learn to
 

2141
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:28,790
you over the course of years learn to
act in the world, and you learn all

2142
00:31:28,790 --> 00:31:28,800
act in the world, and you learn all
 

2143
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:30,790
act in the world, and you learn all
sorts of skills, and you learn world

2144
00:31:30,790 --> 00:31:30,800
sorts of skills, and you learn world
 

2145
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,230
sorts of skills, and you learn world
models, you learn like beliefs about the

2146
00:31:32,230 --> 00:31:32,240
models, you learn like beliefs about the
 

2147
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:33,830
models, you learn like beliefs about the
world, and you can sort of like mentally

2148
00:31:33,830 --> 00:31:33,840
world, and you can sort of like mentally
 

2149
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:35,230
world, and you can sort of like mentally
simulate how it's going and stuff like

2150
00:31:35,230 --> 00:31:35,240
simulate how it's going and stuff like
 

2151
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,070
simulate how it's going and stuff like
that. So, artificial neural nets are

2152
00:31:37,070 --> 00:31:37,080
that. So, artificial neural nets are
 

2153
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,510
that. So, artificial neural nets are
like that, except artificial. So, it's

2154
00:31:39,510 --> 00:31:39,520
like that, except artificial. So, it's
 

2155
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,830
like that, except artificial. So, it's
it starts off as a giant

2156
00:31:42,830 --> 00:31:42,840
it starts off as a giant
 

2157
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,150
it starts off as a giant
tangled spaghetti mess of randomly

2158
00:31:45,150 --> 00:31:45,160
tangled spaghetti mess of randomly
 

2159
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,270
tangled spaghetti mess of randomly
generated uh

2160
00:31:47,270 --> 00:31:47,280
generated uh
 

2161
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:48,470
generated uh
artificial

2162
00:31:48,470 --> 00:31:48,480
artificial
 

2163
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,790
artificial
connections called parameters.

2164
00:31:50,790 --> 00:31:50,800
connections called parameters.
 

2165
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,270
connections called parameters.
These days, they might be something like

2166
00:31:52,270 --> 00:31:52,280
These days, they might be something like
 

2167
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,470
These days, they might be something like
10 trillion parameters

2168
00:31:54,470 --> 00:31:54,480
10 trillion parameters
 

2169
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,110
10 trillion parameters
uh it in the biggest AIs.

2170
00:31:57,110 --> 00:31:57,120
uh it in the biggest AIs.
 

2171
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,750
uh it in the biggest AIs.
So, it starts off randomly generated.

2172
00:31:58,750 --> 00:31:58,760
So, it starts off randomly generated.
 

2173
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,150
So, it starts off randomly generated.
So, it's of course completely useless.

2174
00:32:00,150 --> 00:32:00,160
So, it's of course completely useless.
 

2175
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:01,870
So, it's of course completely useless.
Like, if you

2176
00:32:01,870 --> 00:32:01,880
Like, if you
 

2177
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,070
Like, if you
give it some input, it'll just produce

2178
00:32:03,070 --> 00:32:03,080
give it some input, it'll just produce
 

2179
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:04,950
give it some input, it'll just produce
gibberish as an output. But then they

2180
00:32:04,950 --> 00:32:04,960
gibberish as an output. But then they
 

2181
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,390
gibberish as an output. But then they
train it, and they

2182
00:32:07,390 --> 00:32:07,400
train it, and they
 

2183
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,590
train it, and they
start with pre-training, which is where

2184
00:32:09,590 --> 00:32:09,600
start with pre-training, which is where
 

2185
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,310
start with pre-training, which is where
you give it a bunch of internet text,

2186
00:32:12,310 --> 00:32:12,320
you give it a bunch of internet text,
 

2187
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,470
you give it a bunch of internet text,
and you show it the first piece of text,

2188
00:32:14,470 --> 00:32:14,480
and you show it the first piece of text,
 

2189
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,310
and you show it the first piece of text,
and you put that in as the input, and

2190
00:32:16,310 --> 00:32:16,320
and you put that in as the input, and
 

2191
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,230
and you put that in as the input, and
then it gives a gibberish output,

2192
00:32:18,230 --> 00:32:18,240
then it gives a gibberish output,
 

2193
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,870
then it gives a gibberish output,
and then you positively or negatively

2194
00:32:20,870 --> 00:32:20,880
and then you positively or negatively
 

2195
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:22,950
and then you positively or negatively
reinforced it based on how accurate that

2196
00:32:22,950 --> 00:32:22,960
reinforced it based on how accurate that
 

2197
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:24,470
reinforced it based on how accurate that
output was at predicting the next piece

2198
00:32:24,470 --> 00:32:24,480
output was at predicting the next piece
 

2199
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,030
output was at predicting the next piece
of text. Um so, it's basically playing

2200
00:32:27,030 --> 00:32:27,040
of text. Um so, it's basically playing
 

2201
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,150
of text. Um so, it's basically playing
this game of like predict the next word.

2202
00:32:29,150 --> 00:32:29,160
this game of like predict the next word.
 

2203
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,070
this game of like predict the next word.
>> Isn't that how it happens with babies? I

2204
00:32:31,070 --> 00:32:31,080
>> Isn't that how it happens with babies? I
 

2205
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:32,390
>> Isn't that how it happens with babies? I
had a I think I had a neuroscientist

2206
00:32:32,390 --> 00:32:32,400
had a I think I had a neuroscientist
 

2207
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,070
had a I think I had a neuroscientist
tell me that babies have more neural

2208
00:32:34,070 --> 00:32:34,080
tell me that babies have more neural
 

2209
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:35,550
tell me that babies have more neural
connections

2210
00:32:35,550 --> 00:32:35,560
connections
 

2211
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,070
connections
um than adults. And yeah, it says yeah,

2212
00:32:38,070 --> 00:32:38,080
um than adults. And yeah, it says yeah,
 

2213
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:39,470
um than adults. And yeah, it says yeah,
toddlers have twice as many neural

2214
00:32:39,470 --> 00:32:39,480
toddlers have twice as many neural
 

2215
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,310
toddlers have twice as many neural
connections as adults. And they, I guess

2216
00:32:42,310 --> 00:32:42,320
connections as adults. And they, I guess
 

2217
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:43,990
connections as adults. And they, I guess
they whittle down through reinforcement.

2218
00:32:43,990 --> 00:32:44,000
they whittle down through reinforcement.
 

2219
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,150
they whittle down through reinforcement.
Yep. We have more pathways when we're

2220
00:32:46,150 --> 00:32:46,160
Yep. We have more pathways when we're
 

2221
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:48,030
Yep. We have more pathways when we're
younger. And just like the process of

2222
00:32:48,030 --> 00:32:48,040
younger. And just like the process of
 

2223
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,990
younger. And just like the process of
training an AI, we're trained down to

2224
00:32:49,990 --> 00:32:50,000
training an AI, we're trained down to
 

2225
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:51,590
training an AI, we're trained down to
like remove the ones that aren't useful

2226
00:32:51,590 --> 00:32:51,600
like remove the ones that aren't useful
 

2227
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,110
like remove the ones that aren't useful
and build up on the ones that are.

2228
00:32:53,110 --> 00:32:53,120
and build up on the ones that are.
 

2229
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:54,470
and build up on the ones that are.
>> Yeah, it's both pruning and

2230
00:32:54,470 --> 00:32:54,480
>> Yeah, it's both pruning and
 

2231
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,230
>> Yeah, it's both pruning and
strengthening. And it seems like in

2232
00:32:56,230 --> 00:32:56,240
strengthening. And it seems like in
 

2233
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:57,590
strengthening. And it seems like in
humans it's actually more pruning than

2234
00:32:57,590 --> 00:32:57,600
humans it's actually more pruning than
 

2235
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,950
humans it's actually more pruning than
strengthening, but it's both. Uh, and in

2236
00:32:59,950 --> 00:32:59,960
strengthening, but it's both. Uh, and in
 

2237
00:32:59,960 --> 00:33:02,230
strengthening, but it's both. Uh, and in
AI it's the same thing, it's both. So,

2238
00:33:02,230 --> 00:33:02,240
AI it's the same thing, it's both. So,
 

2239
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:03,830
AI it's the same thing, it's both. So,
the first portion of training is where

2240
00:33:03,830 --> 00:33:03,840
the first portion of training is where
 

2241
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,230
the first portion of training is where
they train the AI to predict text, which

2242
00:33:06,230 --> 00:33:06,240
they train the AI to predict text, which
 

2243
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,110
they train the AI to predict text, which
is kind of like training it to read. Um,

2244
00:33:08,110 --> 00:33:08,120
is kind of like training it to read. Um,
 

2245
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,590
is kind of like training it to read. Um,
and it it's a similar thing does happen

2246
00:33:09,590 --> 00:33:09,600
and it it's a similar thing does happen
 

2247
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,670
and it it's a similar thing does happen
in humans. So, basically,

2248
00:33:11,670 --> 00:33:11,680
in humans. So, basically,
 

2249
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,350
in humans. So, basically,
the the random tangle gradually takes

2250
00:33:14,350 --> 00:33:14,360
the the random tangle gradually takes
 

2251
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,990
the the random tangle gradually takes
shape and gradually sort of coalesces

2252
00:33:16,990 --> 00:33:17,000
shape and gradually sort of coalesces
 

2253
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,950
shape and gradually sort of coalesces
into more useful circuitry that has

2254
00:33:19,950 --> 00:33:19,960
into more useful circuitry that has
 

2255
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,710
into more useful circuitry that has
stored lots of facts about the world and

2256
00:33:21,710 --> 00:33:21,720
stored lots of facts about the world and
 

2257
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,710
stored lots of facts about the world and
has stored lots of skills for how to,

2258
00:33:24,710 --> 00:33:24,720
has stored lots of skills for how to,
 

2259
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,870
has stored lots of skills for how to,
you know, process information and

2260
00:33:26,870 --> 00:33:26,880
you know, process information and
 

2261
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:28,590
you know, process information and
transform it and then produce

2262
00:33:28,590 --> 00:33:28,600
transform it and then produce
 

2263
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:29,870
transform it and then produce
predictions.

2264
00:33:29,870 --> 00:33:29,880
predictions.
 

2265
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,190
predictions.
That's just the first step. After they

2266
00:33:31,190 --> 00:33:31,200
That's just the first step. After they
 

2267
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,670
That's just the first step. After they
do the pre-training, then they

2268
00:33:33,670 --> 00:33:33,680
do the pre-training, then they
 

2269
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,510
do the pre-training, then they
try to teach it more useful skills

2270
00:33:35,510 --> 00:33:35,520
try to teach it more useful skills
 

2271
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,110
try to teach it more useful skills
besides just predicting text. And so,

2272
00:33:38,110 --> 00:33:38,120
besides just predicting text. And so,
 

2273
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:39,910
besides just predicting text. And so,
you know, by the end of the process,

2274
00:33:39,910 --> 00:33:39,920
you know, by the end of the process,
 

2275
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,070
you know, by the end of the process,
they've thrown lots of coding problems

2276
00:33:42,070 --> 00:33:42,080
they've thrown lots of coding problems
 

2277
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:43,470
they've thrown lots of coding problems
at it. And they've said like, here's a

2278
00:33:43,470 --> 00:33:43,480
at it. And they've said like, here's a
 

2279
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,430
at it. And they've said like, here's a
coding problem, go. Here's a coding

2280
00:33:45,430 --> 00:33:45,440
coding problem, go. Here's a coding
 

2281
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,070
coding problem, go. Here's a coding
problem, here's an environment, you have

2282
00:33:47,070 --> 00:33:47,080
problem, here's an environment, you have
 

2283
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,190
problem, here's an environment, you have
access to this virtual computer, here's

2284
00:33:49,190 --> 00:33:49,200
access to this virtual computer, here's
 

2285
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:50,910
access to this virtual computer, here's
like the code base you're working with.

2286
00:33:50,910 --> 00:33:50,920
like the code base you're working with.
 

2287
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:52,310
like the code base you're working with.
You can write code, you can edit the

2288
00:33:52,310 --> 00:33:52,320
You can write code, you can edit the
 

2289
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:53,590
You can write code, you can edit the
code, you can run the code, you can read

2290
00:33:53,590 --> 00:33:53,600
code, you can run the code, you can read
 

2291
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,270
code, you can run the code, you can read
it, you can use the internet.

2292
00:33:56,270 --> 00:33:56,280
it, you can use the internet.
 

2293
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,550
it, you can use the internet.
Go, go, go. And it does that for a while

2294
00:33:58,550 --> 00:33:58,560
Go, go, go. And it does that for a while
 

2295
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,590
Go, go, go. And it does that for a while
and then based on how successful it is,

2296
00:34:00,590 --> 00:34:00,600
and then based on how successful it is,
 

2297
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,990
and then based on how successful it is,
reinforcement happens and they have

2298
00:34:02,990 --> 00:34:03,000
reinforcement happens and they have
 

2299
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,430
reinforcement happens and they have
thousands, maybe millions of examples of

2300
00:34:05,430 --> 00:34:05,440
thousands, maybe millions of examples of
 

2301
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:06,750
thousands, maybe millions of examples of
coding problems like that that they

2302
00:34:06,750 --> 00:34:06,760
coding problems like that that they
 

2303
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:08,310
coding problems like that that they
trained it on. And that's why they're so

2304
00:34:08,310 --> 00:34:08,320
trained it on. And that's why they're so
 

2305
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:09,710
trained it on. And that's why they're so
good at coding now.

2306
00:34:09,710 --> 00:34:09,720
good at coding now.
 

2307
00:34:09,720 --> 00:34:11,110
good at coding now.
>> So, what does superintelligence look

2308
00:34:11,110 --> 00:34:11,120
>> So, what does superintelligence look
 

2309
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:12,710
>> So, what does superintelligence look
like in this regard? Is it just more of

2310
00:34:12,710 --> 00:34:12,720
like in this regard? Is it just more of
 

2311
00:34:12,720 --> 00:34:14,230
like in this regard? Is it just more of
these connections? And how would they

2312
00:34:14,230 --> 00:34:14,240
these connections? And how would they
 

2313
00:34:14,240 --> 00:34:16,149
these connections? And how would they
get more connections? Can you explain

2314
00:34:16,149 --> 00:34:16,159
get more connections? Can you explain
 

2315
00:34:16,159 --> 00:34:17,149
get more connections? Can you explain
that to me like I'm

2316
00:34:17,149 --> 00:34:17,159
that to me like I'm
 

2317
00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:19,190
that to me like I'm
>> So, there's different AI models, right?

2318
00:34:19,190 --> 00:34:19,200
>> So, there's different AI models, right?
 

2319
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:20,750
>> So, there's different AI models, right?
So, there's like,

2320
00:34:20,750 --> 00:34:20,760
So, there's like,
 

2321
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,230
So, there's like,
you know, GPT-3 and GPT-4 and GPT-4.5

2322
00:34:23,230 --> 00:34:23,240
you know, GPT-3 and GPT-4 and GPT-4.5
 

2323
00:34:23,240 --> 00:34:26,710
you know, GPT-3 and GPT-4 and GPT-4.5
and GPT-5 and GPT-5.5 and 5.6, right?

2324
00:34:26,710 --> 00:34:26,720
and GPT-5 and GPT-5.5 and 5.6, right?
 

2325
00:34:26,720 --> 00:34:28,790
and GPT-5 and GPT-5.5 and 5.6, right?
Sometimes they're just the same previous

2326
00:34:28,790 --> 00:34:28,800
Sometimes they're just the same previous
 

2327
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,030
Sometimes they're just the same previous
model but with extra training. Sometimes

2328
00:34:31,030 --> 00:34:31,040
model but with extra training. Sometimes
 

2329
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:32,110
model but with extra training. Sometimes
they're are new model that's been

2330
00:34:32,110 --> 00:34:32,120
they're are new model that's been
 

2331
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,110
they're are new model that's been
trained from scratch, including starting

2332
00:34:34,110 --> 00:34:34,120
trained from scratch, including starting
 

2333
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,510
trained from scratch, including starting
the whole pre-training process again.

2334
00:34:36,510 --> 00:34:36,520
the whole pre-training process again.
 

2335
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,590
the whole pre-training process again.
Over the last couple years, they've done

2336
00:34:38,590 --> 00:34:38,600
Over the last couple years, they've done
 

2337
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,149
Over the last couple years, they've done
several new rounds of starting over from

2338
00:34:40,149 --> 00:34:40,159
several new rounds of starting over from
 

2339
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:41,950
several new rounds of starting over from
scratch. And typically when they start

2340
00:34:41,950 --> 00:34:41,960
scratch. And typically when they start
 

2341
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,030
scratch. And typically when they start
over from scratch, they make the whole

2342
00:34:44,030 --> 00:34:44,040
over from scratch, they make the whole
 

2343
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,790
over from scratch, they make the whole
thing bigger, the the artificial brain

2344
00:34:45,790 --> 00:34:45,800
thing bigger, the the artificial brain
 

2345
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,350
thing bigger, the the artificial brain
much bigger. Right now they're at

2346
00:34:47,350 --> 00:34:47,360
much bigger. Right now they're at
 

2347
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,270
much bigger. Right now they're at
something like 10 trillion parameters.

2348
00:34:49,270 --> 00:34:49,280
something like 10 trillion parameters.
 

2349
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,909
something like 10 trillion parameters.
Back in 2020, um

2350
00:34:51,909 --> 00:34:51,919
Back in 2020, um
 

2351
00:34:51,919 --> 00:34:55,149
Back in 2020, um
it was more like 175 billion.

2352
00:34:55,149 --> 00:34:55,159
it was more like 175 billion.
 

2353
00:34:55,159 --> 00:34:56,629
it was more like 175 billion.
So, we've grown like two orders of

2354
00:34:56,629 --> 00:34:56,639
So, we've grown like two orders of
 

2355
00:34:56,639 --> 00:34:57,750
So, we've grown like two orders of
magnitude

2356
00:34:57,750 --> 00:34:57,760
magnitude
 

2357
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:58,710
magnitude
uh in 6 years.

2358
00:34:58,710 --> 00:34:58,720
uh in 6 years.
 

2359
00:34:58,720 --> 00:34:59,790
uh in 6 years.
>> Two orders of magnitude.

2360
00:34:59,790 --> 00:34:59,800
>> Two orders of magnitude.
 

2361
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,430
>> Two orders of magnitude.
>> Yeah, like two 10 x's. So, 100 x, right?

2362
00:35:03,430 --> 00:35:03,440
>> Yeah, like two 10 x's. So, 100 x, right?
 

2363
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,590
>> Yeah, like two 10 x's. So, 100 x, right?
So, that process is continuing. Um

2364
00:35:06,590 --> 00:35:06,600
So, that process is continuing. Um
 

2365
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,110
So, that process is continuing. Um
they're also improving the algorithms

2366
00:35:08,110 --> 00:35:08,120
they're also improving the algorithms
 

2367
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:09,910
they're also improving the algorithms
themselves. So, they're not literally

2368
00:35:09,910 --> 00:35:09,920
themselves. So, they're not literally
 

2369
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,070
themselves. So, they're not literally
just the same type of AI but bigger.

2370
00:35:12,070 --> 00:35:12,080
just the same type of AI but bigger.
 

2371
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:13,590
just the same type of AI but bigger.
They've also come up with all sorts of

2372
00:35:13,590 --> 00:35:13,600
They've also come up with all sorts of
 

2373
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,390
They've also come up with all sorts of
ideas for how to change the structure of

2374
00:35:16,390 --> 00:35:16,400
ideas for how to change the structure of
 

2375
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,030
ideas for how to change the structure of
the of the connections in the neurons

2376
00:35:18,030 --> 00:35:18,040
the of the connections in the neurons
 

2377
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:19,870
the of the connections in the neurons
and so forth and change the like

2378
00:35:19,870 --> 00:35:19,880
and so forth and change the like
 

2379
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,550
and so forth and change the like
reinforcement

2380
00:35:21,550 --> 00:35:21,560
reinforcement
 

2381
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:22,910
reinforcement
algorithms that they're using and to

2382
00:35:22,910 --> 00:35:22,920
algorithms that they're using and to
 

2383
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,110
algorithms that they're using and to
change the training data that they're

2384
00:35:25,110 --> 00:35:25,120
change the training data that they're
 

2385
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:26,230
change the training data that they're
training on.

2386
00:35:26,230 --> 00:35:26,240
training on.
 

2387
00:35:26,240 --> 00:35:27,950
training on.
All sorts of tweaks that have made this

2388
00:35:27,950 --> 00:35:27,960
All sorts of tweaks that have made this
 

2389
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:29,030
All sorts of tweaks that have made this
whole thing more efficient.

2390
00:35:29,030 --> 00:35:29,040
whole thing more efficient.
 

2391
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:30,830
whole thing more efficient.
>> We're literally building a brain.

2392
00:35:30,830 --> 00:35:30,840
>> We're literally building a brain.
 

2393
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,550
>> We're literally building a brain.
>> Basically, yeah. As they make more

2394
00:35:32,550 --> 00:35:32,560
>> Basically, yeah. As they make more
 

2395
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:33,750
>> Basically, yeah. As they make more
brains, they're getting better at making

2396
00:35:33,750 --> 00:35:33,760
brains, they're getting better at making
 

2397
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,590
brains, they're getting better at making
They're making them bigger and making

2398
00:35:35,590 --> 00:35:35,600
They're making them bigger and making
 

2399
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:36,990
They're making them bigger and making
them more efficient and so forth.

2400
00:35:36,990 --> 00:35:37,000
them more efficient and so forth.
 

2401
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:38,710
them more efficient and so forth.
>> And it's literally modeled on the brain,

2402
00:35:38,710 --> 00:35:38,720
>> And it's literally modeled on the brain,
 

2403
00:35:38,720 --> 00:35:39,830
>> And it's literally modeled on the brain,
like the way it works, right?

2404
00:35:39,830 --> 00:35:39,840
like the way it works, right?
 

2405
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:41,270
like the way it works, right?
>> It's It's certainly heavily inspired by

2406
00:35:41,270 --> 00:35:41,280
>> It's It's certainly heavily inspired by
 

2407
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:42,990
>> It's It's certainly heavily inspired by
the brain, but I I shouldn't overstate

2408
00:35:42,990 --> 00:35:43,000
the brain, but I I shouldn't overstate
 

2409
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,470
the brain, but I I shouldn't overstate
the the analogy. Like there's lots of

2410
00:35:44,470 --> 00:35:44,480
the the analogy. Like there's lots of
 

2411
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,270
the the analogy. Like there's lots of
differences, too. So, for example, the

2412
00:35:46,270 --> 00:35:46,280
differences, too. So, for example, the
 

2413
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,350
differences, too. So, for example, the
transformer architecture um

2414
00:35:48,350 --> 00:35:48,360
transformer architecture um
 

2415
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:49,030
transformer architecture um
>> Which is

2416
00:35:49,030 --> 00:35:49,040
>> Which is
 

2417
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:50,750
>> Which is
>> Which is the architecture that they use

2418
00:35:50,750 --> 00:35:50,760
>> Which is the architecture that they use
 

2419
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,910
>> Which is the architecture that they use
for for these LLMs

2420
00:35:52,910 --> 00:35:52,920
for for these LLMs
 

2421
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,190
for for these LLMs
uh is not really recurrent. So, the

2422
00:35:55,190 --> 00:35:55,200
uh is not really recurrent. So, the
 

2423
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,510
uh is not really recurrent. So, the
information sort of flows one way rather

2424
00:35:57,510 --> 00:35:57,520
information sort of flows one way rather
 

2425
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:58,830
information sort of flows one way rather
than allowing all these sort of little

2426
00:35:58,830 --> 00:35:58,840
than allowing all these sort of little
 

2427
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,870
than allowing all these sort of little
loops on the inside. Also, the the

2428
00:36:00,870 --> 00:36:00,880
loops on the inside. Also, the the
 

2429
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:02,830
loops on the inside. Also, the the
backpropagation algorithm is different

2430
00:36:02,830 --> 00:36:02,840
backpropagation algorithm is different
 

2431
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,830
backpropagation algorithm is different
from the sort of um learning that

2432
00:36:04,830 --> 00:36:04,840
from the sort of um learning that
 

2433
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,430
from the sort of um learning that
naturally happens in human brains. So,

2434
00:36:06,430 --> 00:36:06,440
naturally happens in human brains. So,
 

2435
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:07,670
naturally happens in human brains. So,
there are some differences, but yes,

2436
00:36:07,670 --> 00:36:07,680
there are some differences, but yes,
 

2437
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,310
there are some differences, but yes,
like broadly speaking, uh we are sort of

2438
00:36:10,310 --> 00:36:10,320
like broadly speaking, uh we are sort of
 

2439
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:11,710
like broadly speaking, uh we are sort of
making artificial brains. It's kind of

2440
00:36:11,710 --> 00:36:11,720
making artificial brains. It's kind of
 

2441
00:36:11,720 --> 00:36:14,030
making artificial brains. It's kind of
like for brains what like a plane is for

2442
00:36:14,030 --> 00:36:14,040
like for brains what like a plane is for
 

2443
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:14,630
like for brains what like a plane is for
a bird.

2444
00:36:14,630 --> 00:36:14,640
a bird.
 

2445
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:15,310
a bird.
>> Mhm. Yeah, that's a [clears throat]

2446
00:36:15,310 --> 00:36:15,320
>> Mhm. Yeah, that's a [clears throat]
 

2447
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,430
>> Mhm. Yeah, that's a [clears throat]
really good analogy.

2448
00:36:16,430 --> 00:36:16,440
really good analogy.
 

2449
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:16,910
really good analogy.
>> Yeah.

2450
00:36:16,910 --> 00:36:16,920
>> Yeah.
 

2451
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:18,150
>> Yeah.
>> That that analogy helped me think

2452
00:36:18,150 --> 00:36:18,160
>> That that analogy helped me think
 

2453
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:19,150
>> That that analogy helped me think
through a bunch of questions people

2454
00:36:19,150 --> 00:36:19,160
through a bunch of questions people
 

2455
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,150
through a bunch of questions people
often ask about AI when they said, "Can

2456
00:36:21,150 --> 00:36:21,160
often ask about AI when they said, "Can
 

2457
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:22,830
often ask about AI when they said, "Can
it be creative?"

2458
00:36:22,830 --> 00:36:22,840
it be creative?"
 

2459
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,830
it be creative?"
But actually that analogy kind of helps

2460
00:36:24,830 --> 00:36:24,840
But actually that analogy kind of helps
 

2461
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:25,870
But actually that analogy kind of helps
me understand that actually that maybe

2462
00:36:25,870 --> 00:36:25,880
me understand that actually that maybe
 

2463
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,510
me understand that actually that maybe
that's not the question.

2464
00:36:27,510 --> 00:36:27,520
that's not the question.
 

2465
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,390
that's not the question.
It's can it produce something that you

2466
00:36:29,390 --> 00:36:29,400
It's can it produce something that you
 

2467
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:30,990
It's can it produce something that you
would consider to be creative because

2468
00:36:30,990 --> 00:36:31,000
would consider to be creative because
 

2469
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:32,150
would consider to be creative because
[clears throat] creativity is people

2470
00:36:32,150 --> 00:36:32,160
[clears throat] creativity is people
 

2471
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:33,830
[clears throat] creativity is people
think of it as like a process, but

2472
00:36:33,830 --> 00:36:33,840
think of it as like a process, but
 

2473
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,110
think of it as like a process, but
actually it's it's judged based on the

2474
00:36:35,110 --> 00:36:35,120
actually it's it's judged based on the
 

2475
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:36,590
actually it's it's judged based on the
output, isn't it?

2476
00:36:36,590 --> 00:36:36,600
output, isn't it?
 

2477
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:37,990
output, isn't it?
>> I mean you you can get philosophical

2478
00:36:37,990 --> 00:36:38,000
>> I mean you you can get philosophical
 

2479
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,910
>> I mean you you can get philosophical
about like is it truly creativity that

2480
00:36:39,910 --> 00:36:39,920
about like is it truly creativity that
 

2481
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:41,550
about like is it truly creativity that
they have, but you can also be like

2482
00:36:41,550 --> 00:36:41,560
they have, but you can also be like
 

2483
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:42,670
they have, but you can also be like
well, I mean just look at all the stuff

2484
00:36:42,670 --> 00:36:42,680
well, I mean just look at all the stuff
 

2485
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:43,435
well, I mean just look at all the stuff
they're accomplishing,

2486
00:36:43,435 --> 00:36:43,445
they're accomplishing,
 

2487
00:36:43,445 --> 00:36:43,990
they're accomplishing,
>> [laughter]

2488
00:36:43,990 --> 00:36:44,000
>> [laughter]
 

2489
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:45,990
>> [laughter]
>> you know, and it seems like they're

2490
00:36:45,990 --> 00:36:46,000
>> you know, and it seems like they're
 

2491
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:47,550
>> you know, and it seems like they're
going to be accomplishing a lot more in

2492
00:36:47,550 --> 00:36:47,560
going to be accomplishing a lot more in
 

2493
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:48,750
going to be accomplishing a lot more in
the near future.

2494
00:36:48,750 --> 00:36:48,760
the near future.
 

2495
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,310
the near future.
>> Yeah, I do I I asked the question about

2496
00:36:50,310 --> 00:36:50,320
>> Yeah, I do I I asked the question about
 

2497
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:51,470
>> Yeah, I do I I asked the question about
how this weighs on you personally

2498
00:36:51,470 --> 00:36:51,480
how this weighs on you personally
 

2499
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,550
how this weighs on you personally
because I can I can sense that you're

2500
00:36:53,550 --> 00:36:53,560
because I can I can sense that you're
 

2501
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,670
because I can I can sense that you're
actually personally bothered.

2502
00:36:55,670 --> 00:36:55,680
actually personally bothered.
 

2503
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:56,710
actually personally bothered.
>> I mean that I think the situation is

2504
00:36:56,710 --> 00:36:56,720
>> I mean that I think the situation is
 

2505
00:36:56,720 --> 00:37:00,030
>> I mean that I think the situation is
crazy. Like

2506
00:37:00,030 --> 00:37:00,040

 

2507
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:01,430

first of all, it's very exciting. Like

2508
00:37:01,430 --> 00:37:01,440
first of all, it's very exciting. Like
 

2509
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:02,790
first of all, it's very exciting. Like
AI is really fascinating and interesting

2510
00:37:02,790 --> 00:37:02,800
AI is really fascinating and interesting
 

2511
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,350
AI is really fascinating and interesting
stuff. I've been following the field for

2512
00:37:04,350 --> 00:37:04,360
stuff. I've been following the field for
 

2513
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:05,910
stuff. I've been following the field for
more than a decade now.

2514
00:37:05,910 --> 00:37:05,920
more than a decade now.
 

2515
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,350
more than a decade now.
I've been part of it

2516
00:37:07,350 --> 00:37:07,360
I've been part of it
 

2517
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,710
I've been part of it
for some years and um

2518
00:37:09,710 --> 00:37:09,720
for some years and um
 

2519
00:37:09,720 --> 00:37:11,230
for some years and um
it's really cool, really interesting and

2520
00:37:11,230 --> 00:37:11,240
it's really cool, really interesting and
 

2521
00:37:11,240 --> 00:37:13,870
it's really cool, really interesting and
it's really fun to think about what's

2522
00:37:13,870 --> 00:37:13,880
it's really fun to think about what's
 

2523
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:15,550
it's really fun to think about what's
going on inside these artificial brains

2524
00:37:15,550 --> 00:37:15,560
going on inside these artificial brains
 

2525
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:16,790
going on inside these artificial brains
and why they are the way that they are

2526
00:37:16,790 --> 00:37:16,800
and why they are the way that they are
 

2527
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:18,270
and why they are the way that they are
and it's really cool to see all the

2528
00:37:18,270 --> 00:37:18,280
and it's really cool to see all the
 

2529
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,230
and it's really cool to see all the
applications of this technology out in

2530
00:37:20,230 --> 00:37:20,240
applications of this technology out in
 

2531
00:37:20,240 --> 00:37:21,270
applications of this technology out in
the world.

2532
00:37:21,270 --> 00:37:21,280
the world.
 

2533
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,430
the world.
But it really seems like we're on a

2534
00:37:23,430 --> 00:37:23,440
But it really seems like we're on a
 

2535
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,230
But it really seems like we're on a
pretty scary path and the more you think

2536
00:37:25,230 --> 00:37:25,240
pretty scary path and the more you think
 

2537
00:37:25,240 --> 00:37:28,230
pretty scary path and the more you think
about it, the more worried you get and

2538
00:37:28,230 --> 00:37:28,240
about it, the more worried you get and
 

2539
00:37:28,240 --> 00:37:30,110
about it, the more worried you get and
you know, in stories

2540
00:37:30,110 --> 00:37:30,120
you know, in stories
 

2541
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:31,670
you know, in stories
it always ends well, but this is real

2542
00:37:31,670 --> 00:37:31,680
it always ends well, but this is real
 

2543
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:32,750
it always ends well, but this is real
life.

2544
00:37:32,750 --> 00:37:32,760
life.
 

2545
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:36,030
life.
And I I think we have to sort of

2546
00:37:36,030 --> 00:37:36,040
And I I think we have to sort of
 

2547
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,150
And I I think we have to sort of
stare reality in the face and tell it

2548
00:37:38,150 --> 00:37:38,160
stare reality in the face and tell it
 

2549
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:39,710
stare reality in the face and tell it
and realize that like it might not

2550
00:37:39,710 --> 00:37:39,720
and realize that like it might not
 

2551
00:37:39,720 --> 00:37:41,550
and realize that like it might not
actually end well, you know.

2552
00:37:41,550 --> 00:37:41,560
actually end well, you know.
 

2553
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,390
actually end well, you know.
>> Were there any recent

2554
00:37:43,390 --> 00:37:43,400
>> Were there any recent
 

2555
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,070
>> Were there any recent
dare I say I was going to say eureka

2556
00:37:45,070 --> 00:37:45,080
dare I say I was going to say eureka
 

2557
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:46,710
dare I say I was going to say eureka
moments, but paradigm shifting moments

2558
00:37:46,710 --> 00:37:46,720
moments, but paradigm shifting moments
 

2559
00:37:46,720 --> 00:37:49,350
moments, but paradigm shifting moments
where even your own sort of mental model

2560
00:37:49,350 --> 00:37:49,360
where even your own sort of mental model
 

2561
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:50,750
where even your own sort of mental model
of what's going on here and how this is

2562
00:37:50,750 --> 00:37:50,760
of what's going on here and how this is
 

2563
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,430
of what's going on here and how this is
going to look were changed for better or

2564
00:37:52,430 --> 00:37:52,440
going to look were changed for better or
 

2565
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:53,430
going to look were changed for better or
for worse?

2566
00:37:53,430 --> 00:37:53,440
for worse?
 

2567
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:54,750
for worse?
>> For better or for worse and probably for

2568
00:37:54,750 --> 00:37:54,760
>> For better or for worse and probably for
 

2569
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:56,910
>> For better or for worse and probably for
worse, things are kind of on track for

2570
00:37:56,910 --> 00:37:56,920
worse, things are kind of on track for
 

2571
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:58,870
worse, things are kind of on track for
AI 2027. There are a few things that

2572
00:37:58,870 --> 00:37:58,880
AI 2027. There are a few things that
 

2573
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,630
AI 2027. There are a few things that
have been different not exactly like

2574
00:38:00,630 --> 00:38:00,640
have been different not exactly like
 

2575
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:02,310
have been different not exactly like
paradigm shift differences, but like

2576
00:38:02,310 --> 00:38:02,320
paradigm shift differences, but like
 

2577
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:03,550
paradigm shift differences, but like
there have been some differences from

2578
00:38:03,550 --> 00:38:03,560
there have been some differences from
 

2579
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:04,990
there have been some differences from
what we expected at the time we wrote

2580
00:38:04,990 --> 00:38:05,000
what we expected at the time we wrote
 

2581
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:06,470
what we expected at the time we wrote
this. So

2582
00:38:06,470 --> 00:38:06,480
this. So
 

2583
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:07,670
this. So
the government has actually got involved

2584
00:38:07,670 --> 00:38:07,680
the government has actually got involved
 

2585
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,030
the government has actually got involved
faster than we expected and has been

2586
00:38:09,030 --> 00:38:09,040
faster than we expected and has been
 

2587
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:10,950
faster than we expected and has been
more aggressive than we expected. So the

2588
00:38:10,950 --> 00:38:10,960
more aggressive than we expected. So the
 

2589
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,390
more aggressive than we expected. So the
export controls on mythos being the

2590
00:38:13,390 --> 00:38:13,400
export controls on mythos being the
 

2591
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,190
export controls on mythos being the
biggest example and also threatening

2592
00:38:15,190 --> 00:38:15,200
biggest example and also threatening
 

2593
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:16,590
biggest example and also threatening
Anthropic with

2594
00:38:16,590 --> 00:38:16,600
Anthropic with
 

2595
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:17,670
Anthropic with
being destroyed by the defense

2596
00:38:17,670 --> 00:38:17,680
being destroyed by the defense
 

2597
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,470
being destroyed by the defense
production production act.

2598
00:38:19,470 --> 00:38:19,480
production production act.
 

2599
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:19,721
production production act.
Um

2600
00:38:19,721 --> 00:38:19,731
Um
 

2601
00:38:19,731 --> 00:38:20,190
Um
>> [clears throat]

2602
00:38:20,190 --> 00:38:20,200
>> [clears throat]
 

2603
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:21,910
>> [clears throat]
>> Another thing that's been surprising to

2604
00:38:21,910 --> 00:38:21,920
>> Another thing that's been surprising to
 

2605
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,030
>> Another thing that's been surprising to
us is that Anthropic in particular has

2606
00:38:24,030 --> 00:38:24,040
us is that Anthropic in particular has
 

2607
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,190
us is that Anthropic in particular has
gone from second place to first place in

2608
00:38:26,190 --> 00:38:26,200
gone from second place to first place in
 

2609
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,990
gone from second place to first place in
the sort of in the race basically.

2610
00:38:28,990 --> 00:38:29,000
the sort of in the race basically.
 

2611
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:30,630
the sort of in the race basically.
>> Why do you think that happened? Because

2612
00:38:30,630 --> 00:38:30,640
>> Why do you think that happened? Because
 

2613
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,070
>> Why do you think that happened? Because
it seemed like ChatGPT were out front

2614
00:38:33,070 --> 00:38:33,080
it seemed like ChatGPT were out front
 

2615
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:34,870
it seemed like ChatGPT were out front
and clear as it relates relates to

2616
00:38:34,870 --> 00:38:34,880
and clear as it relates relates to
 

2617
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:36,390
and clear as it relates relates to
OpenAI were out front and clear but

2618
00:38:36,390 --> 00:38:36,400
OpenAI were out front and clear but
 

2619
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,790
OpenAI were out front and clear but
suddenly Anthropic have uh

2620
00:38:38,790 --> 00:38:38,800
suddenly Anthropic have uh
 

2621
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:39,990
suddenly Anthropic have uh
lapped them.

2622
00:38:39,990 --> 00:38:40,000
lapped them.
 

2623
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,510
lapped them.
>> Yeah, I mean I guess they have um

2624
00:38:42,510 --> 00:38:42,520
>> Yeah, I mean I guess they have um
 

2625
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,590
>> Yeah, I mean I guess they have um
probably higher talent density

2626
00:38:44,590 --> 00:38:44,600
probably higher talent density
 

2627
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,190
probably higher talent density
um and better strategy

2628
00:38:46,190 --> 00:38:46,200
um and better strategy
 

2629
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,670
um and better strategy
but not by a lot but enough to make the

2630
00:38:48,670 --> 00:38:48,680
but not by a lot but enough to make the
 

2631
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:49,270
but not by a lot but enough to make the
difference.

2632
00:38:49,270 --> 00:38:49,280
difference.
 

2633
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,910
difference.
>> Why do you think they have more talent?

2634
00:38:51,910 --> 00:38:51,920
>> Why do you think they have more talent?
 

2635
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,230
>> Why do you think they have more talent?
>> Well

2636
00:38:53,230 --> 00:38:53,240
>> Well
 

2637
00:38:53,240 --> 00:38:54,910
>> Well
they don't have more compute. Like what

2638
00:38:54,910 --> 00:38:54,920
they don't have more compute. Like what
 

2639
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:56,470
they don't have more compute. Like what
are the inputs, right? Like they're in

2640
00:38:56,470 --> 00:38:56,480
are the inputs, right? Like they're in
 

2641
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,510
are the inputs, right? Like they're in
the lead now, they used to be behind.

2642
00:38:58,510 --> 00:38:58,520
the lead now, they used to be behind.
 

2643
00:38:58,520 --> 00:38:59,710
the lead now, they used to be behind.
What are the possible explanations for

2644
00:38:59,710 --> 00:38:59,720
What are the possible explanations for
 

2645
00:38:59,720 --> 00:39:01,830
What are the possible explanations for
this? Well, it could have been that they

2646
00:39:01,830 --> 00:39:01,840
this? Well, it could have been that they
 

2647
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:03,270
this? Well, it could have been that they
had more resources like more compute

2648
00:39:03,270 --> 00:39:03,280
had more resources like more compute
 

2649
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:04,430
had more resources like more compute
more money but that's not true. They

2650
00:39:04,430 --> 00:39:04,440
more money but that's not true. They
 

2651
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:07,510
more money but that's not true. They
have less resources less money, right?

2652
00:39:07,510 --> 00:39:07,520
have less resources less money, right?
 

2653
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:10,230
have less resources less money, right?
So then I guess talent's what is is the

2654
00:39:10,230 --> 00:39:10,240
So then I guess talent's what is is the
 

2655
00:39:10,240 --> 00:39:12,270
So then I guess talent's what is is the
next best alternative. You could maybe

2656
00:39:12,270 --> 00:39:12,280
next best alternative. You could maybe
 

2657
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:13,510
next best alternative. You could maybe
say strategy.

2658
00:39:13,510 --> 00:39:13,520
say strategy.
 

2659
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:15,310
say strategy.
Some combination of those things, yeah.

2660
00:39:15,310 --> 00:39:15,320
Some combination of those things, yeah.
 

2661
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:16,550
Some combination of those things, yeah.
Something that wasn't just like the

2662
00:39:16,550 --> 00:39:16,560
Something that wasn't just like the
 

2663
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,670
Something that wasn't just like the
amount of resources they had.

2664
00:39:18,670 --> 00:39:18,680
amount of resources they had.
 

2665
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:20,390
amount of resources they had.
>> Just like Jon Jones where marginal

2666
00:39:20,390 --> 00:39:20,400
>> Just like Jon Jones where marginal
 

2667
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:21,470
>> Just like Jon Jones where marginal
improvements in your cognitive

2668
00:39:21,470 --> 00:39:21,480
improvements in your cognitive
 

2669
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:23,270
improvements in your cognitive
performance can have a massive impact.

2670
00:39:23,270 --> 00:39:23,280
performance can have a massive impact.
 

2671
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,070
performance can have a massive impact.
Sometimes I podcast for 10 hours a day.

2672
00:39:25,070 --> 00:39:25,080
Sometimes I podcast for 10 hours a day.
 

2673
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:26,790
Sometimes I podcast for 10 hours a day.
Over the last couple of weeks I've been

2674
00:39:26,790 --> 00:39:26,800
Over the last couple of weeks I've been
 

2675
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:28,670
Over the last couple of weeks I've been
in filming for a TV show and then I have

2676
00:39:28,670 --> 00:39:28,680
in filming for a TV show and then I have
 

2677
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:30,150
in filming for a TV show and then I have
like one or two days off to get all of

2678
00:39:30,150 --> 00:39:30,160
like one or two days off to get all of
 

2679
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:31,950
like one or two days off to get all of
my work done which means there's lots of

2680
00:39:31,950 --> 00:39:31,960
my work done which means there's lots of
 

2681
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,270
my work done which means there's lots of
cognitive load. And so I turn to ketones

2682
00:39:34,270 --> 00:39:34,280
cognitive load. And so I turn to ketones
 

2683
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,270
cognitive load. And so I turn to ketones
because I find myself more articulate,

2684
00:39:36,270 --> 00:39:36,280
because I find myself more articulate,
 

2685
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,430
because I find myself more articulate,
able to think more clearly, able to work

2686
00:39:38,430 --> 00:39:38,440
able to think more clearly, able to work
 

2687
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,110
able to think more clearly, able to work
out better when I'm fueled by ketones.

2688
00:39:41,110 --> 00:39:41,120
out better when I'm fueled by ketones.
 

2689
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:42,630
out better when I'm fueled by ketones.
And so the reason I became a convert of

2690
00:39:42,630 --> 00:39:42,640
And so the reason I became a convert of
 

2691
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:43,870
And so the reason I became a convert of
this company and the reason why they now

2692
00:39:43,870 --> 00:39:43,880
this company and the reason why they now
 

2693
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,030
this company and the reason why they now
are sponsoring this podcast is because I

2694
00:39:46,030 --> 00:39:46,040
are sponsoring this podcast is because I
 

2695
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:47,110
are sponsoring this podcast is because I
remember one of my team members called

2696
00:39:47,110 --> 00:39:47,120
remember one of my team members called
 

2697
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:48,510
remember one of my team members called
Christiana, she tried it once and came

2698
00:39:48,510 --> 00:39:48,520
Christiana, she tried it once and came
 

2699
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:50,110
Christiana, she tried it once and came
up to my desk and she goes this is the

2700
00:39:50,110 --> 00:39:50,120
up to my desk and she goes this is the
 

2701
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,510
up to my desk and she goes this is the
best product ever made. And I think in

2702
00:39:52,510 --> 00:39:52,520
best product ever made. And I think in
 

2703
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:53,990
best product ever made. And I think in
part that's because she really cares

2704
00:39:53,990 --> 00:39:54,000
part that's because she really cares
 

2705
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:55,910
part that's because she really cares
about those cognitive benefits as I do

2706
00:39:55,910 --> 00:39:55,920
about those cognitive benefits as I do
 

2707
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:57,910
about those cognitive benefits as I do
as Jon Jones does and as I think most of

2708
00:39:57,910 --> 00:39:57,920
as Jon Jones does and as I think most of
 

2709
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,390
as Jon Jones does and as I think most of
my listeners probably will. So if you

2710
00:39:59,390 --> 00:39:59,400
my listeners probably will. So if you
 

2711
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:01,350
my listeners probably will. So if you
haven't tried these yet, all you have to

2712
00:40:01,350 --> 00:40:01,360
haven't tried these yet, all you have to
 

2713
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:05,470
haven't tried these yet, all you have to
do is go to ketone.com/steven

2714
00:40:05,470 --> 00:40:05,480

 

2715
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:06,910

and you'll also get 30% off your first

2716
00:40:06,910 --> 00:40:06,920
and you'll also get 30% off your first
 

2717
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:08,430
and you'll also get 30% off your first
subscription order. You'll get exclusive

2718
00:40:08,430 --> 00:40:08,440
subscription order. You'll get exclusive
 

2719
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,670
subscription order. You'll get exclusive
ketone IQ merch and of course cognitive

2720
00:40:11,670 --> 00:40:11,680
ketone IQ merch and of course cognitive
 

2721
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,390
ketone IQ merch and of course cognitive
benefits that might just change your

2722
00:40:13,390 --> 00:40:13,400
benefits that might just change your
 

2723
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:14,470
benefits that might just change your
life.

2724
00:40:14,470 --> 00:40:14,480
life.
 

2725
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,390
life.
Much of the reason most people haven't

2726
00:40:16,390 --> 00:40:16,400
Much of the reason most people haven't
 

2727
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:17,750
Much of the reason most people haven't
posted content or built their personal

2728
00:40:17,750 --> 00:40:17,760
posted content or built their personal
 

2729
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,310
posted content or built their personal
brand is because it's hard and it's time

2730
00:40:20,310 --> 00:40:20,320
brand is because it's hard and it's time
 

2731
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,270
brand is because it's hard and it's time
consuming and we're all very very busy

2732
00:40:22,270 --> 00:40:22,280
consuming and we're all very very busy
 

2733
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:23,750
consuming and we're all very very busy
and if you've never posted something

2734
00:40:23,750 --> 00:40:23,760
and if you've never posted something
 

2735
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:25,150
and if you've never posted something
before,

2736
00:40:25,150 --> 00:40:25,160
before,
 

2737
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:26,990
before,
there's so many factors in your

2738
00:40:26,990 --> 00:40:27,000
there's so many factors in your
 

2739
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:28,670
there's so many factors in your
psychology that stop you wanting to

2740
00:40:28,670 --> 00:40:28,680
psychology that stop you wanting to
 

2741
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:30,830
psychology that stop you wanting to
post. What people will think of you. Am

2742
00:40:30,830 --> 00:40:30,840
post. What people will think of you. Am
 

2743
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:32,270
post. What people will think of you. Am
I doing this right? Is the thing I'm

2744
00:40:32,270 --> 00:40:32,280
I doing this right? Is the thing I'm
 

2745
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,950
I doing this right? Is the thing I'm
saying absolutely stupid? All of these

2746
00:40:34,950 --> 00:40:34,960
saying absolutely stupid? All of these
 

2747
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:36,590
saying absolutely stupid? All of these
result in paralysis which means you

2748
00:40:36,590 --> 00:40:36,600
result in paralysis which means you
 

2749
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,830
result in paralysis which means you
don't post and your feed goes bad.

2750
00:40:39,830 --> 00:40:39,840
don't post and your feed goes bad.
 

2751
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,230
don't post and your feed goes bad.
I'm an investor in a company called

2752
00:40:41,230 --> 00:40:41,240
I'm an investor in a company called
 

2753
00:40:41,240 --> 00:40:42,750
I'm an investor in a company called
Stand Store which you've probably heard

2754
00:40:42,750 --> 00:40:42,760
Stand Store which you've probably heard
 

2755
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:43,910
Stand Store which you've probably heard
me talk about and what they've been

2756
00:40:43,910 --> 00:40:43,920
me talk about and what they've been
 

2757
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:45,710
me talk about and what they've been
building is this new tool called Stanley

2758
00:40:45,710 --> 00:40:45,720
building is this new tool called Stanley
 

2759
00:40:45,720 --> 00:40:48,150
building is this new tool called Stanley
that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks

2760
00:40:48,150 --> 00:40:48,160
that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks
 

2761
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:49,310
that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks
at your tone of voice, looks at your

2762
00:40:49,310 --> 00:40:49,320
at your tone of voice, looks at your
 

2763
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:50,750
at your tone of voice, looks at your
history, looks at your best performing

2764
00:40:50,750 --> 00:40:50,760
history, looks at your best performing
 

2765
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:52,750
history, looks at your best performing
posts and tells you what you should

2766
00:40:52,750 --> 00:40:52,760
posts and tells you what you should
 

2767
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,950
posts and tells you what you should
post, makes those posts for you. You can

2768
00:40:54,950 --> 00:40:54,960
post, makes those posts for you. You can
 

2769
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,270
post, makes those posts for you. You can
also you just use it for inspiration and

2770
00:40:57,270 --> 00:40:57,280
also you just use it for inspiration and
 

2771
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:58,590
also you just use it for inspiration and
sometimes what we need when we're

2772
00:40:58,590 --> 00:40:58,600
sometimes what we need when we're
 

2773
00:40:58,600 --> 00:40:59,710
sometimes what we need when we're
thinking about doing a post for our

2774
00:40:59,710 --> 00:40:59,720
thinking about doing a post for our
 

2775
00:40:59,720 --> 00:41:02,230
thinking about doing a post for our
social media channels is inspiration.

2776
00:41:02,230 --> 00:41:02,240
social media channels is inspiration.
 

2777
00:41:02,240 --> 00:41:03,830
social media channels is inspiration.
Building an audience has fundamentally

2778
00:41:03,830 --> 00:41:03,840
Building an audience has fundamentally
 

2779
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,310
Building an audience has fundamentally
changed my life and I think it could

2780
00:41:05,310 --> 00:41:05,320
changed my life and I think it could
 

2781
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,550
changed my life and I think it could
change yours too. So, I'm inviting you

2782
00:41:07,550 --> 00:41:07,560
change yours too. So, I'm inviting you
 

2783
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,830
change yours too. So, I'm inviting you
to give this new tool a shot and let me

2784
00:41:09,830 --> 00:41:09,840
to give this new tool a shot and let me
 

2785
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:11,430
to give this new tool a shot and let me
know what you think. All you have to do

2786
00:41:11,430 --> 00:41:11,440
know what you think. All you have to do
 

2787
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:13,510
know what you think. All you have to do
is search coach.stand.store

2788
00:41:13,510 --> 00:41:13,520
is search coach.stand.store
 

2789
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,070
is search coach.stand.store
now to get started.

2790
00:41:16,070 --> 00:41:16,080
now to get started.
 

2791
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:17,710
now to get started.
>> Uh a friend of mine who knows some of

2792
00:41:17,710 --> 00:41:17,720
>> Uh a friend of mine who knows some of
 

2793
00:41:17,720 --> 00:41:19,670
>> Uh a friend of mine who knows some of
these people sat me down once upon a

2794
00:41:19,670 --> 00:41:19,680
these people sat me down once upon a
 

2795
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:21,270
these people sat me down once upon a
time in London. He's actually said this

2796
00:41:21,270 --> 00:41:21,280
time in London. He's actually said this
 

2797
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:22,990
time in London. He's actually said this
a few times to me but I remember one

2798
00:41:22,990 --> 00:41:23,000
a few times to me but I remember one
 

2799
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,390
a few times to me but I remember one
particular conversation where he says

2800
00:41:25,390 --> 00:41:25,400
particular conversation where he says
 

2801
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:26,470
particular conversation where he says
that

2802
00:41:26,470 --> 00:41:26,480
that
 

2803
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,030
that
some of these AI CEOs predict the

2804
00:41:29,030 --> 00:41:29,040
some of these AI CEOs predict the
 

2805
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,430
some of these AI CEOs predict the
probability of extinction at being I

2806
00:41:31,430 --> 00:41:31,440
probability of extinction at being I
 

2807
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:32,990
probability of extinction at being I
think he said 7%. I don't know why I

2808
00:41:32,990 --> 00:41:33,000
think he said 7%. I don't know why I
 

2809
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:33,870
think he said 7%. I don't know why I
have that number in my head but I

2810
00:41:33,870 --> 00:41:33,880
have that number in my head but I
 

2811
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:35,710
have that number in my head but I
remember it being less than 10% and the

2812
00:41:35,710 --> 00:41:35,720
remember it being less than 10% and the
 

2813
00:41:35,720 --> 00:41:37,950
remember it being less than 10% and the
point he was making to me was that even

2814
00:41:37,950 --> 00:41:37,960
point he was making to me was that even
 

2815
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,270
point he was making to me was that even
if it was 1%. Like if there was 100

2816
00:41:40,270 --> 00:41:40,280
if it was 1%. Like if there was 100
 

2817
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:41,630
if it was 1%. Like if there was 100
buttons on this table now

2818
00:41:41,630 --> 00:41:41,640
buttons on this table now
 

2819
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:42,230
buttons on this table now
>> Yeah.

2820
00:41:42,230 --> 00:41:42,240
>> Yeah.
 

2821
00:41:42,240 --> 00:41:44,270
>> Yeah.
>> and one of them would end the world.

2822
00:41:44,270 --> 00:41:44,280
>> and one of them would end the world.
 

2823
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:45,030
>> and one of them would end the world.
Would I dare

2824
00:41:45,030 --> 00:41:45,040
Would I dare
 

2825
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:46,430
Would I dare
>> I wouldn't press any of them

2826
00:41:46,430 --> 00:41:46,440
>> I wouldn't press any of them
 

2827
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:47,470
>> I wouldn't press any of them
>> you know. [laughter]

2828
00:41:47,470 --> 00:41:47,480
>> you know. [laughter]
 

2829
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:48,110
>> you know. [laughter]
Um

2830
00:41:48,110 --> 00:41:48,120
Um
 

2831
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:48,950
Um
>> No.

2832
00:41:48,950 --> 00:41:48,960
>> No.
 

2833
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:50,630
>> No.
>> I wouldn't press any of them but he made

2834
00:41:50,630 --> 00:41:50,640
>> I wouldn't press any of them but he made
 

2835
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:52,070
>> I wouldn't press any of them but he made
the case to me that these AI CEOs are

2836
00:41:52,070 --> 00:41:52,080
the case to me that these AI CEOs are
 

2837
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:53,470
the case to me that these AI CEOs are
very smart and they understand super

2838
00:41:53,470 --> 00:41:53,480
very smart and they understand super
 

2839
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:54,630
very smart and they understand super
intelligence and that they think

2840
00:41:54,630 --> 00:41:54,640
intelligence and that they think
 

2841
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:55,910
intelligence and that they think
actually if there was 100 buttons on

2842
00:41:55,910 --> 00:41:55,920
actually if there was 100 buttons on
 

2843
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,110
actually if there was 100 buttons on
this table right now, maybe 10 of them

2844
00:41:58,110 --> 00:41:58,120
this table right now, maybe 10 of them
 

2845
00:41:58,120 --> 00:41:59,950
this table right now, maybe 10 of them
could end the world. I've heard you say,

2846
00:41:59,950 --> 00:41:59,960
could end the world. I've heard you say,
 

2847
00:41:59,960 --> 00:42:01,310
could end the world. I've heard you say,
I think it was on the the the Daily

2848
00:42:01,310 --> 00:42:01,320
I think it was on the the the Daily
 

2849
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:02,630
I think it was on the the the Daily
Show, the interview you did, you said

2850
00:42:02,630 --> 00:42:02,640
Show, the interview you did, you said
 

2851
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:04,350
Show, the interview you did, you said
that you think there's a 70% chance of

2852
00:42:04,350 --> 00:42:04,360
that you think there's a 70% chance of
 

2853
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,430
that you think there's a 70% chance of
human extinction due to AI.

2854
00:42:06,430 --> 00:42:06,440
human extinction due to AI.
 

2855
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,310
human extinction due to AI.
>> I wouldn't say human extinction exactly.

2856
00:42:08,310 --> 00:42:08,320
>> I wouldn't say human extinction exactly.
 

2857
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:09,990
>> I wouldn't say human extinction exactly.
I'd say something like 70% chance that

2858
00:42:09,990 --> 00:42:10,000
I'd say something like 70% chance that
 

2859
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:11,350
I'd say something like 70% chance that
this goes horribly wrong like human

2860
00:42:11,350 --> 00:42:11,360
this goes horribly wrong like human
 

2861
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:12,350
this goes horribly wrong like human
extinction but that's just one of

2862
00:42:12,350 --> 00:42:12,360
extinction but that's just one of
 

2863
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:13,950
extinction but that's just one of
several possibilities. But yeah,

2864
00:42:13,950 --> 00:42:13,960
several possibilities. But yeah,
 

2865
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:15,950
several possibilities. But yeah,
basically

2866
00:42:15,950 --> 00:42:15,960
basically
 

2867
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:17,870
basically
Like for example, possibly the AIs take

2868
00:42:17,870 --> 00:42:17,880
Like for example, possibly the AIs take
 

2869
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,070
Like for example, possibly the AIs take
over and then don't actually kill

2870
00:42:20,070 --> 00:42:20,080
over and then don't actually kill
 

2871
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:20,990
over and then don't actually kill
everyone.

2872
00:42:20,990 --> 00:42:21,000
everyone.
 

2873
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,270
everyone.
You know, maybe they do something else.

2874
00:42:23,270 --> 00:42:23,280
You know, maybe they do something else.
 

2875
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:24,510
You know, maybe they do something else.
Like just just cuz they've taken over

2876
00:42:24,510 --> 00:42:24,520
Like just just cuz they've taken over
 

2877
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:25,590
Like just just cuz they've taken over
doesn't mean they're

2878
00:42:25,590 --> 00:42:25,600
doesn't mean they're
 

2879
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:26,870
doesn't mean they're
definitely going to kill us, right? They

2880
00:42:26,870 --> 00:42:26,880
definitely going to kill us, right? They
 

2881
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:28,070
definitely going to kill us, right? They
might, but they could do something else.

2882
00:42:28,070 --> 00:42:28,080
might, but they could do something else.
 

2883
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:29,350
might, but they could do something else.
So that's what that's that's why I don't

2884
00:42:29,350 --> 00:42:29,360
So that's what that's that's why I don't
 

2885
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:30,830
So that's what that's that's why I don't
usually say like

2886
00:42:30,830 --> 00:42:30,840
usually say like
 

2887
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:32,110
usually say like
70% chance of like actual human

2888
00:42:32,110 --> 00:42:32,120
70% chance of like actual human
 

2889
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,790
70% chance of like actual human
extinction, but 70% chance of like

2890
00:42:34,790 --> 00:42:34,800
extinction, but 70% chance of like
 

2891
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:36,710
extinction, but 70% chance of like
something like AIs taking over, some

2892
00:42:36,710 --> 00:42:36,720
something like AIs taking over, some
 

2893
00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:38,150
something like AIs taking over, some
some sort of very big catastrophe like

2894
00:42:38,150 --> 00:42:38,160
some sort of very big catastrophe like
 

2895
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:39,510
some sort of very big catastrophe like
that that could lead to human

2896
00:42:39,510 --> 00:42:39,520
that that could lead to human
 

2897
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:39,830
that that could lead to human
extinction.

2898
00:42:39,830 --> 00:42:39,840
extinction.
 

2899
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:40,670
extinction.
>> I see what you mean. So two points

2900
00:42:40,670 --> 00:42:40,680
>> I see what you mean. So two points
 

2901
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,390
>> I see what you mean. So two points
there, which is you've been around these

2902
00:42:42,390 --> 00:42:42,400
there, which is you've been around these
 

2903
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,110
there, which is you've been around these
CEOs. I mean you've worked for Sam

2904
00:42:44,110 --> 00:42:44,120
CEOs. I mean you've worked for Sam
 

2905
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,550
CEOs. I mean you've worked for Sam
Altman at OpenAI before you quit.

2906
00:42:46,550 --> 00:42:46,560
Altman at OpenAI before you quit.
 

2907
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,070
Altman at OpenAI before you quit.
Do you think that they think there's a

2908
00:42:48,070 --> 00:42:48,080
Do you think that they think there's a
 

2909
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:49,430
Do you think that they think there's a
chance of human extinction?

2910
00:42:49,430 --> 00:42:49,440
chance of human extinction?
 

2911
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:50,470
chance of human extinction?
>> Yes.

2912
00:42:50,470 --> 00:42:50,480
>> Yes.
 

2913
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:51,510
>> Yes.
But

2914
00:42:51,510 --> 00:42:51,520
But
 

2915
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:52,630
But
I think that the important thing to

2916
00:42:52,630 --> 00:42:52,640
I think that the important thing to
 

2917
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:54,190
I think that the important thing to
understand is that

2918
00:42:54,190 --> 00:42:54,200
understand is that
 

2919
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,430
understand is that
like people sort of believe what they

2920
00:42:56,430 --> 00:42:56,440
like people sort of believe what they
 

2921
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:58,710
like people sort of believe what they
need to believe in order to think that

2922
00:42:58,710 --> 00:42:58,720
need to believe in order to think that
 

2923
00:42:58,720 --> 00:43:00,190
need to believe in order to think that
they're great people and that they need

2924
00:43:00,190 --> 00:43:00,200
they're great people and that they need
 

2925
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:01,590
they're great people and that they need
to keep doing what they're doing. This

2926
00:43:01,590 --> 00:43:01,600
to keep doing what they're doing. This
 

2927
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,070
to keep doing what they're doing. This
is what rationalization is. And so I

2928
00:43:04,070 --> 00:43:04,080
is what rationalization is. And so I
 

2929
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:05,870
is what rationalization is. And so I
think that the tech CEOs have like

2930
00:43:05,870 --> 00:43:05,880
think that the tech CEOs have like
 

2931
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,750
think that the tech CEOs have like
genuinely convinced themselves that like

2932
00:43:08,750 --> 00:43:08,760
genuinely convinced themselves that like
 

2933
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:10,470
genuinely convinced themselves that like
probably things are going to be fine and

2934
00:43:10,470 --> 00:43:10,480
probably things are going to be fine and
 

2935
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:12,030
probably things are going to be fine and
that the way to make things fine is for

2936
00:43:12,030 --> 00:43:12,040
that the way to make things fine is for
 

2937
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:13,110
that the way to make things fine is for
them to keep doing what they're doing.

2938
00:43:13,110 --> 00:43:13,120
them to keep doing what they're doing.
 

2939
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:14,310
them to keep doing what they're doing.
And like they need to like make sure

2940
00:43:14,310 --> 00:43:14,320
And like they need to like make sure
 

2941
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,350
And like they need to like make sure
that like, you know, Sam needs to make

2942
00:43:16,350 --> 00:43:16,360
that like, you know, Sam needs to make
 

2943
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,150
that like, you know, Sam needs to make
Sam's probably thinking like can't let

2944
00:43:18,150 --> 00:43:18,160
Sam's probably thinking like can't let
 

2945
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:19,750
Sam's probably thinking like can't let
Dario or Elon

2946
00:43:19,750 --> 00:43:19,760
Dario or Elon
 

2947
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:21,670
Dario or Elon
get there first, you know, I know

2948
00:43:21,670 --> 00:43:21,680
get there first, you know, I know
 

2949
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,150
get there first, you know, I know
Dario's thinking Sam can't get there

2950
00:43:23,150 --> 00:43:23,160
Dario's thinking Sam can't get there
 

2951
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:25,030
Dario's thinking Sam can't get there
first. Elon's thinking that like, you

2952
00:43:25,030 --> 00:43:25,040
first. Elon's thinking that like, you
 

2953
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:26,270
first. Elon's thinking that like, you
know, they they they've all probably

2954
00:43:26,270 --> 00:43:26,280
know, they they they've all probably
 

2955
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:27,670
know, they they they've all probably
convinced themselves that like, oh yeah,

2956
00:43:27,670 --> 00:43:27,680
convinced themselves that like, oh yeah,
 

2957
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:28,910
convinced themselves that like, oh yeah,
like maybe it'll go horribly wrong, but

2958
00:43:28,910 --> 00:43:28,920
like maybe it'll go horribly wrong, but
 

2959
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:29,990
like maybe it'll go horribly wrong, but
like

2960
00:43:29,990 --> 00:43:30,000
like
 

2961
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:31,110
like
probably it's going to be fine and

2962
00:43:31,110 --> 00:43:31,120
probably it's going to be fine and
 

2963
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:32,510
probably it's going to be fine and
probably

2964
00:43:32,510 --> 00:43:32,520
probably
 

2965
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:33,590
probably
you know,

2966
00:43:33,590 --> 00:43:33,600
you know,
 

2967
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,310
you know,
I should be the one in charge.

2968
00:43:35,310 --> 00:43:35,320
I should be the one in charge.
 

2969
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:36,830
I should be the one in charge.
>> It appears to me that Anthropic are the

2970
00:43:36,830 --> 00:43:36,840
>> It appears to me that Anthropic are the
 

2971
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,870
>> It appears to me that Anthropic are the
only ones that are all talking about the

2972
00:43:38,870 --> 00:43:38,880
only ones that are all talking about the
 

2973
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:40,270
only ones that are all talking about the
potential chance of extinction or

2974
00:43:40,270 --> 00:43:40,280
potential chance of extinction or
 

2975
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,670
potential chance of extinction or
catastrophic event or

2976
00:43:42,670 --> 00:43:42,680
catastrophic event or
 

2977
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,470
catastrophic event or
um the down the real downside still.

2978
00:43:44,470 --> 00:43:44,480
um the down the real downside still.
 

2979
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:45,790
um the down the real downside still.
They seem to be the only ones that are

2980
00:43:45,790 --> 00:43:45,800
They seem to be the only ones that are
 

2981
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:47,630
They seem to be the only ones that are
still publishing on it and now they're

2982
00:43:47,630 --> 00:43:47,640
still publishing on it and now they're
 

2983
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:49,070
still publishing on it and now they're
actually becoming the enemy in many

2984
00:43:49,070 --> 00:43:49,080
actually becoming the enemy in many
 

2985
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:50,230
actually becoming the enemy in many
respects of the

2986
00:43:50,230 --> 00:43:50,240
respects of the
 

2987
00:43:50,240 --> 00:43:50,670
respects of the
>> Yeah.

2988
00:43:50,670 --> 00:43:50,680
>> Yeah.
 

2989
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,190
>> Yeah.
>> the tech industry in San Francisco. I'm

2990
00:43:52,190 --> 00:43:52,200
>> the tech industry in San Francisco. I'm
 

2991
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:53,550
>> the tech industry in San Francisco. I'm
watching a lot of interviews and it's

2992
00:43:53,550 --> 00:43:53,560
watching a lot of interviews and it's
 

2993
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,110
watching a lot of interviews and it's
everyone's attacking Dario because he's

2994
00:43:55,110 --> 00:43:55,120
everyone's attacking Dario because he's
 

2995
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:56,270
everyone's attacking Dario because he's
saying, "Listen, things could go bad."

2996
00:43:56,270 --> 00:43:56,280
saying, "Listen, things could go bad."
 

2997
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,070
saying, "Listen, things could go bad."
They're calling him a doomer uh and

2998
00:43:58,070 --> 00:43:58,080
They're calling him a doomer uh and
 

2999
00:43:58,080 --> 00:43:59,390
They're calling him a doomer uh and
questioning his incentives. Even with

3000
00:43:59,390 --> 00:43:59,400
questioning his incentives. Even with
 

3001
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,750
questioning his incentives. Even with
Mythos, which is a an a Claude model

3002
00:44:01,750 --> 00:44:01,760
Mythos, which is a an a Claude model
 

3003
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:03,510
Mythos, which is a an a Claude model
that they started to warn the world

3004
00:44:03,510 --> 00:44:03,520
that they started to warn the world
 

3005
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,710
that they started to warn the world
about, again, he is attacked immediately

3006
00:44:05,710 --> 00:44:05,720
about, again, he is attacked immediately
 

3007
00:44:05,720 --> 00:44:06,750
about, again, he is attacked immediately
for saying that.

3008
00:44:06,750 --> 00:44:06,760
for saying that.
 

3009
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:07,470
for saying that.
>> Yeah.

3010
00:44:07,470 --> 00:44:07,480
>> Yeah.
 

3011
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,390
>> Yeah.
>> My question is, do you see him as being

3012
00:44:09,390 --> 00:44:09,400
>> My question is, do you see him as being
 

3013
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:10,670
>> My question is, do you see him as being
slightly different from Sam in this

3014
00:44:10,670 --> 00:44:10,680
slightly different from Sam in this
 

3015
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:11,870
slightly different from Sam in this
regard?

3016
00:44:11,870 --> 00:44:11,880
regard?
 

3017
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,310
regard?
>> Yeah, I mean, it seems like Anthropic

3018
00:44:14,310 --> 00:44:14,320
>> Yeah, I mean, it seems like Anthropic
 

3019
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:17,870
>> Yeah, I mean, it seems like Anthropic
and Stereo have been more willing to

3020
00:44:17,870 --> 00:44:17,880
and Stereo have been more willing to
 

3021
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:19,790
and Stereo have been more willing to
say and do things that are costly to the

3022
00:44:19,790 --> 00:44:19,800
say and do things that are costly to the
 

3023
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:21,350
say and do things that are costly to the
bottom line.

3024
00:44:21,350 --> 00:44:21,360
bottom line.
 

3025
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,870
bottom line.
Uh and at least in the last year or so.

3026
00:44:23,870 --> 00:44:23,880
Uh and at least in the last year or so.
 

3027
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,710
Uh and at least in the last year or so.
That's an example of it. Um like I don't

3028
00:44:25,710 --> 00:44:25,720
That's an example of it. Um like I don't
 

3029
00:44:25,720 --> 00:44:26,870
That's an example of it. Um like I don't
think that really wins them favors in

3030
00:44:26,870 --> 00:44:26,880
think that really wins them favors in
 

3031
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,030
think that really wins them favors in
the administration or among their

3032
00:44:29,030 --> 00:44:29,040
the administration or among their
 

3033
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,230
the administration or among their
investors to say that type of thing. And

3034
00:44:32,230 --> 00:44:32,240
investors to say that type of thing. And
 

3035
00:44:32,240 --> 00:44:34,350
investors to say that type of thing. And
you know, a better example is just the

3036
00:44:34,350 --> 00:44:34,360
you know, a better example is just the
 

3037
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:35,510
you know, a better example is just the
whole fight between the Department of

3038
00:44:35,510 --> 00:44:35,520
whole fight between the Department of
 

3039
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:36,990
whole fight between the Department of
War and Anthropic was an example of them

3040
00:44:36,990 --> 00:44:37,000
War and Anthropic was an example of them
 

3041
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:38,750
War and Anthropic was an example of them
doing something that like cost them a

3042
00:44:38,750 --> 00:44:38,760
doing something that like cost them a
 

3043
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,150
doing something that like cost them a
lot of money and even more importantly

3044
00:44:40,150 --> 00:44:40,160
lot of money and even more importantly
 

3045
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:41,830
lot of money and even more importantly
cost them a lot of power

3046
00:44:41,830 --> 00:44:41,840
cost them a lot of power
 

3047
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:43,230
cost them a lot of power
for

3048
00:44:43,230 --> 00:44:43,240
for
 

3049
00:44:43,240 --> 00:44:44,670
for
something that like like they could have

3050
00:44:44,670 --> 00:44:44,680
something that like like they could have
 

3051
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:46,750
something that like like they could have
just signed the contract, you know.

3052
00:44:46,750 --> 00:44:46,760
just signed the contract, you know.
 

3053
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,550
just signed the contract, you know.
That said, I really don't want to be in

3054
00:44:48,550 --> 00:44:48,560
That said, I really don't want to be in
 

3055
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:50,550
That said, I really don't want to be in
a situation where we're like, which CEO

3056
00:44:50,550 --> 00:44:50,560
a situation where we're like, which CEO
 

3057
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:52,750
a situation where we're like, which CEO
is the least bad CEO? Let's support that

3058
00:44:52,750 --> 00:44:52,760
is the least bad CEO? Let's support that
 

3059
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,390
is the least bad CEO? Let's support that
one. You know, like none of these people

3060
00:44:54,390 --> 00:44:54,400
one. You know, like none of these people
 

3061
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:55,790
one. You know, like none of these people
should be trusted

3062
00:44:55,790 --> 00:44:55,800
should be trusted
 

3063
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:57,510
should be trusted
uh with that much power, basically.

3064
00:44:57,510 --> 00:44:57,520
uh with that much power, basically.
 

3065
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:58,230
uh with that much power, basically.
>> Nobody should.

3066
00:44:58,230 --> 00:44:58,240
>> Nobody should.
 

3067
00:44:58,240 --> 00:44:59,270
>> Nobody should.
>> Nobody should.

3068
00:44:59,270 --> 00:44:59,280
>> Nobody should.
 

3069
00:44:59,280 --> 00:44:59,830
>> Nobody should.
>> Regardless.

3070
00:44:59,830 --> 00:44:59,840
>> Regardless.
 

3071
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:00,710
>> Regardless.
>> Regardless, yeah.

3072
00:45:00,710 --> 00:45:00,720
>> Regardless, yeah.
 

3073
00:45:00,720 --> 00:45:02,590
>> Regardless, yeah.
>> Mhm. So, uh on this point of the

3074
00:45:02,590 --> 00:45:02,600
>> Mhm. So, uh on this point of the
 

3075
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,270
>> Mhm. So, uh on this point of the
buttons, you you you do believe that

3076
00:45:04,270 --> 00:45:04,280
buttons, you you you do believe that
 

3077
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:05,990
buttons, you you you do believe that
they think there's a credible chance of

3078
00:45:05,990 --> 00:45:06,000
they think there's a credible chance of
 

3079
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:06,750
they think there's a credible chance of
extinction.

3080
00:45:06,750 --> 00:45:06,760
extinction.
 

3081
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:07,230
extinction.
>> Yeah, but they've [clears throat]

3082
00:45:07,230 --> 00:45:07,240
>> Yeah, but they've [clears throat]
 

3083
00:45:07,240 --> 00:45:08,790
>> Yeah, but they've [clears throat]
convinced themselves that like it's

3084
00:45:08,790 --> 00:45:08,800
convinced themselves that like it's
 

3085
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:10,950
convinced themselves that like it's
probably fine and also it'll be even

3086
00:45:10,950 --> 00:45:10,960
probably fine and also it'll be even
 

3087
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:13,430
probably fine and also it'll be even
worse if I'm not doing it, you know.

3088
00:45:13,430 --> 00:45:13,440
worse if I'm not doing it, you know.
 

3089
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:14,230
worse if I'm not doing it, you know.
Like that's that's what they'll say

3090
00:45:14,230 --> 00:45:14,240
Like that's that's what they'll say
 

3091
00:45:14,240 --> 00:45:15,470
Like that's that's what they'll say
inside the companies, too. Like the two

3092
00:45:15,470 --> 00:45:15,480
inside the companies, too. Like the two
 

3093
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,110
inside the companies, too. Like the two
people will be like, okay, well, if we

3094
00:45:17,110 --> 00:45:17,120
people will be like, okay, well, if we
 

3095
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:18,150
people will be like, okay, well, if we
stop,

3096
00:45:18,150 --> 00:45:18,160
stop,
 

3097
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:19,070
stop,
what about the other guys? Like they're

3098
00:45:19,070 --> 00:45:19,080
what about the other guys? Like they're
 

3099
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:21,350
what about the other guys? Like they're
not going to stop, you know?

3100
00:45:21,350 --> 00:45:21,360
not going to stop, you know?
 

3101
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:22,430
not going to stop, you know?
>> Yeah, this is this is always been why

3102
00:45:22,430 --> 00:45:22,440
>> Yeah, this is this is always been why
 

3103
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:23,750
>> Yeah, this is this is always been why
I've had this outstanding question,

3104
00:45:23,750 --> 00:45:23,760
I've had this outstanding question,
 

3105
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:25,190
I've had this outstanding question,
which is how does this not go bad when

3106
00:45:25,190 --> 00:45:25,200
which is how does this not go bad when
 

3107
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,110
which is how does this not go bad when
human incentives seem to rule the day

3108
00:45:27,110 --> 00:45:27,120
human incentives seem to rule the day
 

3109
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:28,910
human incentives seem to rule the day
when you look at history and all of the

3110
00:45:28,910 --> 00:45:28,920
when you look at history and all of the
 

3111
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:30,110
when you look at history and all of the
human incentives are saying, well, if

3112
00:45:30,110 --> 00:45:30,120
human incentives are saying, well, if
 

3113
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,150
human incentives are saying, well, if
you you're damned if you do,

3114
00:45:32,150 --> 00:45:32,160
you you're damned if you do,
 

3115
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:33,630
you you're damned if you do,
I you're damned if you carry on

3116
00:45:33,630 --> 00:45:33,640
I you're damned if you carry on
 

3117
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:34,950
I you're damned if you carry on
developing these bigger and bigger

3118
00:45:34,950 --> 00:45:34,960
developing these bigger and bigger
 

3119
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,390
developing these bigger and bigger
bigger AI brains, but you're also then

3120
00:45:37,390 --> 00:45:37,400
bigger AI brains, but you're also then
 

3121
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:38,670
bigger AI brains, but you're also then
damned if you don't from an a

3122
00:45:38,670 --> 00:45:38,680
damned if you don't from an a
 

3123
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:40,270
damned if you don't from an a
geographical perspective cuz the United

3124
00:45:40,270 --> 00:45:40,280
geographical perspective cuz the United
 

3125
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:41,910
geographical perspective cuz the United
States will lose to that country or this

3126
00:45:41,910 --> 00:45:41,920
States will lose to that country or this
 

3127
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:43,670
States will lose to that country or this
company will lose to that company. So,

3128
00:45:43,670 --> 00:45:43,680
company will lose to that company. So,
 

3129
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:44,990
company will lose to that company. So,
when you just look at human incentives

3130
00:45:44,990 --> 00:45:45,000
when you just look at human incentives
 

3131
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:46,510
when you just look at human incentives
and goes, how does how does if just you

3132
00:45:46,510 --> 00:45:46,520
and goes, how does how does if just you
 

3133
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:48,350
and goes, how does how does if just you
purely incentives and disincentives, how

3134
00:45:48,350 --> 00:45:48,360
purely incentives and disincentives, how
 

3135
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:49,350
purely incentives and disincentives, how
does this end? Well, it carries on

3136
00:45:49,350 --> 00:45:49,360
does this end? Well, it carries on
 

3137
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:50,310
does this end? Well, it carries on
going.

3138
00:45:50,310 --> 00:45:50,320
going.
 

3139
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:52,030
going.
>> Seems like it. I mean, there there is a

3140
00:45:52,030 --> 00:45:52,040
>> Seems like it. I mean, there there is a
 

3141
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:53,350
>> Seems like it. I mean, there there is a
caveat to that, which is a hopeful

3142
00:45:53,350 --> 00:45:53,360
caveat to that, which is a hopeful
 

3143
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:55,350
caveat to that, which is a hopeful
caveat, which is that

3144
00:45:55,350 --> 00:45:55,360
caveat, which is that
 

3145
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:56,750
caveat, which is that
first of all, if the world wakes up to

3146
00:45:56,750 --> 00:45:56,760
first of all, if the world wakes up to
 

3147
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:57,950
first of all, if the world wakes up to
all of this,

3148
00:45:57,950 --> 00:45:57,960
all of this,
 

3149
00:45:57,960 --> 00:45:59,430
all of this,
then there can be a more serious

3150
00:45:59,430 --> 00:45:59,440
then there can be a more serious
 

3151
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,590
then there can be a more serious
conversation about regulation and

3152
00:46:02,590 --> 00:46:02,600
conversation about regulation and
 

3153
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:03,990
conversation about regulation and
international treaties and things like

3154
00:46:03,990 --> 00:46:04,000
international treaties and things like
 

3155
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:05,630
international treaties and things like
that. And that can change the

3156
00:46:05,630 --> 00:46:05,640
that. And that can change the
 

3157
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:07,990
that. And that can change the
incentives, right? So, the government

3158
00:46:07,990 --> 00:46:08,000
incentives, right? So, the government
 

3159
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,430
incentives, right? So, the government
could come in and say like actually

3160
00:46:10,430 --> 00:46:10,440
could come in and say like actually
 

3161
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:11,430
could come in and say like actually
here's some rules that you all have to

3162
00:46:11,430 --> 00:46:11,440
here's some rules that you all have to
 

3163
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:12,990
here's some rules that you all have to
follow. And because they're rules that

3164
00:46:12,990 --> 00:46:13,000
follow. And because they're rules that
 

3165
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:14,710
follow. And because they're rules that
you all have to follow, then you're not

3166
00:46:14,710 --> 00:46:14,720
you all have to follow, then you're not
 

3167
00:46:14,720 --> 00:46:16,990
you all have to follow, then you're not
incentivized to like

3168
00:46:16,990 --> 00:46:17,000
incentivized to like
 

3169
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:18,910
incentivized to like
break them anymore because you get

3170
00:46:18,910 --> 00:46:18,920
break them anymore because you get
 

3171
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:20,750
break them anymore because you get
punished if you break them and

3172
00:46:20,750 --> 00:46:20,760
punished if you break them and
 

3173
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:21,870
punished if you break them and
everyone else is also following them,

3174
00:46:21,870 --> 00:46:21,880
everyone else is also following them,
 

3175
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,230
everyone else is also following them,
too. And so, you know, it's fine. So, so

3176
00:46:24,230 --> 00:46:24,240
too. And so, you know, it's fine. So, so
 

3177
00:46:24,240 --> 00:46:25,870
too. And so, you know, it's fine. So, so
there is that sort of like ray of hope

3178
00:46:25,870 --> 00:46:25,880
there is that sort of like ray of hope
 

3179
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,390
there is that sort of like ray of hope
that like we can change the incentives

3180
00:46:28,390 --> 00:46:28,400
that like we can change the incentives
 

3181
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,030
that like we can change the incentives
if the government and especially the US

3182
00:46:31,030 --> 00:46:31,040
if the government and especially the US
 

3183
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:32,150
if the government and especially the US
government but then later other

3184
00:46:32,150 --> 00:46:32,160
government but then later other
 

3185
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,390
government but then later other
countries act to to change the

3186
00:46:34,390 --> 00:46:34,400
countries act to to change the
 

3187
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:35,830
countries act to to change the
incentives. But that's not going to

3188
00:46:35,830 --> 00:46:35,840
incentives. But that's not going to
 

3189
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:37,590
incentives. But that's not going to
happen until people sort of wake up to

3190
00:46:37,590 --> 00:46:37,600
happen until people sort of wake up to
 

3191
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:38,710
happen until people sort of wake up to
all of this.

3192
00:46:38,710 --> 00:46:38,720
all of this.
 

3193
00:46:38,720 --> 00:46:39,830
all of this.
The second thing is that even

3194
00:46:39,830 --> 00:46:39,840
The second thing is that even
 

3195
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:41,390
The second thing is that even
individually

3196
00:46:41,390 --> 00:46:41,400
individually
 

3197
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,590
individually
at some point

3198
00:46:43,590 --> 00:46:43,600
at some point
 

3199
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:45,750
at some point
you know, Dario or Sam or Elon might

3200
00:46:45,750 --> 00:46:45,760
you know, Dario or Sam or Elon might
 

3201
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,110
you know, Dario or Sam or Elon might
realize that like actually it's like not

3202
00:46:48,110 --> 00:46:48,120
realize that like actually it's like not
 

3203
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:50,150
realize that like actually it's like not
even in their own interest

3204
00:46:50,150 --> 00:46:50,160
even in their own interest
 

3205
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:52,630
even in their own interest
to to keep racing unilaterally.

3206
00:46:52,630 --> 00:46:52,640
to to keep racing unilaterally.
 

3207
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,430
to to keep racing unilaterally.
And it it on the problem with that is

3208
00:46:54,430 --> 00:46:54,440
And it it on the problem with that is
 

3209
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:55,750
And it it on the problem with that is
it's only if it gets extremely obvious

3210
00:46:55,750 --> 00:46:55,760
it's only if it gets extremely obvious
 

3211
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:57,870
it's only if it gets extremely obvious
and extremely dire. So, like

3212
00:46:57,870 --> 00:46:57,880
and extremely dire. So, like
 

3213
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,950
and extremely dire. So, like
in in AI 2027, in that scenario, there's

3214
00:47:00,950 --> 00:47:00,960
in in AI 2027, in that scenario, there's
 

3215
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:02,910
in in AI 2027, in that scenario, there's
this choice point that I mentioned. And

3216
00:47:02,910 --> 00:47:02,920
this choice point that I mentioned. And
 

3217
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,470
this choice point that I mentioned. And
in one case the AIs are misaligned and

3218
00:47:04,470 --> 00:47:04,480
in one case the AIs are misaligned and
 

3219
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,750
in one case the AIs are misaligned and
the other case the AIs are aligned.

3220
00:47:06,750 --> 00:47:06,760
the other case the AIs are aligned.
 

3221
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:08,790
the other case the AIs are aligned.
At that choice point, we have like one

3222
00:47:08,790 --> 00:47:08,800
At that choice point, we have like one
 

3223
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:10,350
At that choice point, we have like one
branch that depicts the the misalignment

3224
00:47:10,350 --> 00:47:10,360
branch that depicts the the misalignment
 

3225
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:11,790
branch that depicts the the misalignment
ending and one branch that depicts like

3226
00:47:11,790 --> 00:47:11,800
ending and one branch that depicts like
 

3227
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,110
ending and one branch that depicts like
they they slow down a bit and solve the

3228
00:47:13,110 --> 00:47:13,120
they they slow down a bit and solve the
 

3229
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:13,950
they they slow down a bit and solve the
alignment issues.

3230
00:47:13,950 --> 00:47:13,960
alignment issues.
 

3231
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:14,430
alignment issues.
>> Mhm.

3232
00:47:14,430 --> 00:47:14,440
>> Mhm.
 

3233
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:16,710
>> Mhm.
>> The instigator for that choice point is

3234
00:47:16,710 --> 00:47:16,720
>> The instigator for that choice point is
 

3235
00:47:16,720 --> 00:47:17,990
>> The instigator for that choice point is
they see some evidence that their AI

3236
00:47:17,990 --> 00:47:18,000
they see some evidence that their AI
 

3237
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:19,990
they see some evidence that their AI
might be misaligned and plotting against

3238
00:47:19,990 --> 00:47:20,000
might be misaligned and plotting against
 

3239
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:20,830
might be misaligned and plotting against
them.

3240
00:47:20,830 --> 00:47:20,840
them.
 

3241
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:22,470
them.
Right? So, if you actually see that

3242
00:47:22,470 --> 00:47:22,480
Right? So, if you actually see that
 

3243
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:23,670
Right? So, if you actually see that
evidence

3244
00:47:23,670 --> 00:47:23,680
evidence
 

3245
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:24,950
evidence
then it's like

3246
00:47:24,950 --> 00:47:24,960
then it's like
 

3247
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:26,550
then it's like
oh gosh, uh

3248
00:47:26,550 --> 00:47:26,560
oh gosh, uh
 

3249
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:28,310
oh gosh, uh
maybe we shouldn't put it in charge of

3250
00:47:28,310 --> 00:47:28,320
maybe we shouldn't put it in charge of
 

3251
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:31,030
maybe we shouldn't put it in charge of
everything and let it rip, you know?

3252
00:47:31,030 --> 00:47:31,040
everything and let it rip, you know?
 

3253
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:32,350
everything and let it rip, you know?
Because that evidence is staring us

3254
00:47:32,350 --> 00:47:32,360
Because that evidence is staring us
 

3255
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:33,590
Because that evidence is staring us
right in the face that it's this

3256
00:47:33,590 --> 00:47:33,600
right in the face that it's this
 

3257
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,910
right in the face that it's this
untrustworthy, you know? But if they

3258
00:47:35,910 --> 00:47:35,920
untrustworthy, you know? But if they
 

3259
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:37,350
untrustworthy, you know? But if they
don't see that sort of very clear

3260
00:47:37,350 --> 00:47:37,360
don't see that sort of very clear
 

3261
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,350
don't see that sort of very clear
evidence, then

3262
00:47:39,350 --> 00:47:39,360
evidence, then
 

3263
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:40,270
evidence, then
I think they're going to convince

3264
00:47:40,270 --> 00:47:40,280
I think they're going to convince
 

3265
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:41,750
I think they're going to convince
themselves that they need to keep going,

3266
00:47:41,750 --> 00:47:41,760
themselves that they need to keep going,
 

3267
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,230
themselves that they need to keep going,
you know? But maybe they will see very

3268
00:47:43,230 --> 00:47:43,240
you know? But maybe they will see very
 

3269
00:47:43,240 --> 00:47:45,230
you know? But maybe they will see very
clear evidence like that. In which case,

3270
00:47:45,230 --> 00:47:45,240
clear evidence like that. In which case,
 

3271
00:47:45,240 --> 00:47:46,590
clear evidence like that. In which case,
even if we don't have regulation, they

3272
00:47:46,590 --> 00:47:46,600
even if we don't have regulation, they
 

3273
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:48,590
even if we don't have regulation, they
might just sort of voluntarily stop.

3274
00:47:48,590 --> 00:47:48,600
might just sort of voluntarily stop.
 

3275
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,310
might just sort of voluntarily stop.
Um so, that's the second ray of hope.

3276
00:47:51,310 --> 00:47:51,320
Um so, that's the second ray of hope.
 

3277
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:52,670
Um so, that's the second ray of hope.
Like overall, I don't think that we're

3278
00:47:52,670 --> 00:47:52,680
Like overall, I don't think that we're
 

3279
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,163
Like overall, I don't think that we're
like definitely doomed, you know? Like

3280
00:47:54,163 --> 00:47:54,173
like definitely doomed, you know? Like
 

3281
00:47:54,173 --> 00:47:56,510
like definitely doomed, you know? Like
[snorts] I said 70% but like

3282
00:47:56,510 --> 00:47:56,520
[snorts] I said 70% but like
 

3283
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:57,950
[snorts] I said 70% but like
I could see it working out pretty well

3284
00:47:57,950 --> 00:47:57,960
I could see it working out pretty well
 

3285
00:47:57,960 --> 00:47:58,950
I could see it working out pretty well
as well.

3286
00:47:58,950 --> 00:47:58,960
as well.
 

3287
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:00,510
as well.
>> Hm.

3288
00:48:00,510 --> 00:48:00,520
>> Hm.
 

3289
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:02,470
>> Hm.
What about uh jobs?

3290
00:48:02,470 --> 00:48:02,480
What about uh jobs?
 

3291
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:03,950
What about uh jobs?
>> Yeah.

3292
00:48:03,950 --> 00:48:03,960
>> Yeah.
 

3293
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:06,030
>> Yeah.
So, I think I think I'm excited to at

3294
00:48:06,030 --> 00:48:06,040
So, I think I think I'm excited to at
 

3295
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:07,990
So, I think I think I'm excited to at
some point get into the new thing which

3296
00:48:07,990 --> 00:48:08,000
some point get into the new thing which
 

3297
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:09,228
some point get into the new thing which
is the more optimistic

3298
00:48:09,228 --> 00:48:09,238
is the more optimistic
 

3299
00:48:09,238 --> 00:48:09,430
is the more optimistic
>> [clears throat]

3300
00:48:09,430 --> 00:48:09,440
>> [clears throat]
 

3301
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:10,750
>> [clears throat]
>> positive vision.

3302
00:48:10,750 --> 00:48:10,760
>> positive vision.
 

3303
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,230
>> positive vision.
Uh and that will have a lot to say about

3304
00:48:12,230 --> 00:48:12,240
Uh and that will have a lot to say about
 

3305
00:48:12,240 --> 00:48:13,150
Uh and that will have a lot to say about
this.

3306
00:48:13,150 --> 00:48:13,160
this.
 

3307
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:16,270
this.
Because in the in the in the prediction,

3308
00:48:16,270 --> 00:48:16,280
Because in the in the in the prediction,
 

3309
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:18,550
Because in the in the in the prediction,
you know, in the year 2027, by the time

3310
00:48:18,550 --> 00:48:18,560
you know, in the year 2027, by the time
 

3311
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,390
you know, in the year 2027, by the time
everyone loses their jobs, there are

3312
00:48:20,390 --> 00:48:20,400
everyone loses their jobs, there are
 

3313
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,110
everyone loses their jobs, there are
worse things happening. Or like it's

3314
00:48:22,110 --> 00:48:22,120
worse things happening. Or like it's
 

3315
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:23,390
worse things happening. Or like it's
it's kind of like too late by that

3316
00:48:23,390 --> 00:48:23,400
it's kind of like too late by that
 

3317
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,510
it's kind of like too late by that
point. Um but yes, like once if I mean

3318
00:48:26,510 --> 00:48:26,520
point. Um but yes, like once if I mean
 

3319
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:27,430
point. Um but yes, like once if I mean
just just think about it. If the

3320
00:48:27,430 --> 00:48:27,440
just just think about it. If the
 

3321
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:28,470
just just think about it. If the
companies do manage to build

3322
00:48:28,470 --> 00:48:28,480
companies do manage to build
 

3323
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,190
companies do manage to build
superintelligence, then by definition,

3324
00:48:31,190 --> 00:48:31,200
superintelligence, then by definition,
 

3325
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:33,150
superintelligence, then by definition,
they're going to be able to take almost

3326
00:48:33,150 --> 00:48:33,160
they're going to be able to take almost
 

3327
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,510
they're going to be able to take almost
all the jobs or all the jobs, right? Cuz

3328
00:48:35,510 --> 00:48:35,520
all the jobs or all the jobs, right? Cuz
 

3329
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:37,030
all the jobs or all the jobs, right? Cuz
it's better, faster, and cheaper than

3330
00:48:37,030 --> 00:48:37,040
it's better, faster, and cheaper than
 

3331
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:38,550
it's better, faster, and cheaper than
the best humans at everything.

3332
00:48:38,550 --> 00:48:38,560
the best humans at everything.
 

3333
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:39,830
the best humans at everything.
>> And that's I mean, the timeline is by

3334
00:48:39,830 --> 00:48:39,840
>> And that's I mean, the timeline is by
 

3335
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,030
>> And that's I mean, the timeline is by
the end of sort of 2030, you reckon you

3336
00:48:42,030 --> 00:48:42,040
the end of sort of 2030, you reckon you
 

3337
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:43,630
the end of sort of 2030, you reckon you
think superintelligence might arrive.

3338
00:48:43,630 --> 00:48:43,640
think superintelligence might arrive.
 

3339
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:44,710
think superintelligence might arrive.
I'm trying to think about when we could

3340
00:48:44,710 --> 00:48:44,720
I'm trying to think about when we could
 

3341
00:48:44,720 --> 00:48:46,430
I'm trying to think about when we could
start to see job displacement in the

3342
00:48:46,430 --> 00:48:46,440
start to see job displacement in the
 

3343
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:46,990
start to see job displacement in the
economy.

3344
00:48:46,990 --> 00:48:47,000
economy.
 

3345
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:48,030
economy.
>> We're already starting to see a little

3346
00:48:48,030 --> 00:48:48,040
>> We're already starting to see a little
 

3347
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:49,390
>> We're already starting to see a little
bit of it now, but not very much.

3348
00:48:49,390 --> 00:48:49,400
bit of it now, but not very much.
 

3349
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:49,910
bit of it now, but not very much.
>> Why?

3350
00:48:49,910 --> 00:48:49,920
>> Why?
 

3351
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,030
>> Why?
>> Um cuz the AIs aren't good enough yet.

3352
00:48:52,030 --> 00:48:52,040
>> Um cuz the AIs aren't good enough yet.
 

3353
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:52,990
>> Um cuz the AIs aren't good enough yet.
Like they're they're they're they're

3354
00:48:52,990 --> 00:48:53,000
Like they're they're they're they're
 

3355
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,710
Like they're they're they're they're
impressive, but they're not like

3356
00:48:55,710 --> 00:48:55,720
impressive, but they're not like
 

3357
00:48:55,720 --> 00:48:58,030
impressive, but they're not like
they're not just a a drop-in replacement

3358
00:48:58,030 --> 00:48:58,040
they're not just a a drop-in replacement
 

3359
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:00,270
they're not just a a drop-in replacement
for a human worker in almost any field.

3360
00:49:00,270 --> 00:49:00,280
for a human worker in almost any field.
 

3361
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,270
for a human worker in almost any field.
>> And do you think that will be sudden?

3362
00:49:02,270 --> 00:49:02,280
>> And do you think that will be sudden?
 

3363
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:05,190
>> And do you think that will be sudden?
>> I think it'll be sudden because of the

3364
00:49:05,190 --> 00:49:05,200
>> I think it'll be sudden because of the
 

3365
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:07,030
>> I think it'll be sudden because of the
intelligence explosion dynamics or

3366
00:49:07,030 --> 00:49:07,040
intelligence explosion dynamics or
 

3367
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,630
intelligence explosion dynamics or
recursive self-improvement dynamics. So,

3368
00:49:09,630 --> 00:49:09,640
recursive self-improvement dynamics. So,
 

3369
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:11,110
recursive self-improvement dynamics. So,
you could imagine a different world

3370
00:49:11,110 --> 00:49:11,120
you could imagine a different world
 

3371
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:12,350
you could imagine a different world
where

3372
00:49:12,350 --> 00:49:12,360
where
 

3373
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:13,310
where
it's gradual.

3374
00:49:13,310 --> 00:49:13,320
it's gradual.
 

3375
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:13,750
it's gradual.
>> Mhm.

3376
00:49:13,750 --> 00:49:13,760
>> Mhm.
 

3377
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:14,550
>> Mhm.
>> And and this [clears throat] is this is

3378
00:49:14,550 --> 00:49:14,560
>> And and this [clears throat] is this is
 

3379
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:15,670
>> And and this [clears throat] is this is
maybe how it is in a lot of science

3380
00:49:15,670 --> 00:49:15,680
maybe how it is in a lot of science
 

3381
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,350
maybe how it is in a lot of science
fiction is,

3382
00:49:17,350 --> 00:49:17,360
fiction is,
 

3383
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:19,190
fiction is,
you know, the AIs gradually get better

3384
00:49:19,190 --> 00:49:19,200
you know, the AIs gradually get better
 

3385
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:20,670
you know, the AIs gradually get better
at a bunch of things and

3386
00:49:20,670 --> 00:49:20,680
at a bunch of things and
 

3387
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:22,030
at a bunch of things and
you know, they gradually automate like

3388
00:49:22,030 --> 00:49:22,040
you know, they gradually automate like
 

3389
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:23,830
you know, they gradually automate like
this one industry like pharma, then they

3390
00:49:23,830 --> 00:49:23,840
this one industry like pharma, then they
 

3391
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:25,470
this one industry like pharma, then they
automate like

3392
00:49:25,470 --> 00:49:25,480
automate like
 

3393
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:27,550
automate like
you know, steering drones, then they

3394
00:49:27,550 --> 00:49:27,560
you know, steering drones, then they
 

3395
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:29,390
you know, steering drones, then they
automate like driving cars or something

3396
00:49:29,390 --> 00:49:29,400
automate like driving cars or something
 

3397
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,590
automate like driving cars or something
like that. Um

3398
00:49:31,590 --> 00:49:31,600
like that. Um
 

3399
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:32,830
like that. Um
but what's different about the real

3400
00:49:32,830 --> 00:49:32,840
but what's different about the real
 

3401
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,790
but what's different about the real
world is that the companies have

3402
00:49:35,790 --> 00:49:35,800
world is that the companies have
 

3403
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:37,510
world is that the companies have
converged on this strategy of automating

3404
00:49:37,510 --> 00:49:37,520
converged on this strategy of automating
 

3405
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:39,190
converged on this strategy of automating
themselves first.

3406
00:49:39,190 --> 00:49:39,200
themselves first.
 

3407
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:40,390
themselves first.
You know, automating the AI research

3408
00:49:40,390 --> 00:49:40,400
You know, automating the AI research
 

3409
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:41,950
You know, automating the AI research
process.

3410
00:49:41,950 --> 00:49:41,960
process.
 

3411
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,110
process.
And so,

3412
00:49:44,110 --> 00:49:44,120
And so,
 

3413
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:45,390
And so,
if they are allowed to continue with the

3414
00:49:45,390 --> 00:49:45,400
if they are allowed to continue with the
 

3415
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,070
if they are allowed to continue with the
strategy,

3416
00:49:47,070 --> 00:49:47,080
strategy,
 

3417
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,430
strategy,
we're not going to see like,

3418
00:49:49,430 --> 00:49:49,440
we're not going to see like,
 

3419
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:52,190
we're not going to see like,
you know, the robot taxis and like the

3420
00:49:52,190 --> 00:49:52,200
you know, the robot taxis and like the
 

3421
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:54,470
you know, the robot taxis and like the
plumber robots and

3422
00:49:54,470 --> 00:49:54,480
plumber robots and
 

3423
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,350
plumber robots and
you know, the lawyer AIs. We're not

3424
00:49:56,350 --> 00:49:56,360
you know, the lawyer AIs. We're not
 

3425
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:57,750
you know, the lawyer AIs. We're not
going to see that sort of like broad

3426
00:49:57,750 --> 00:49:57,760
going to see that sort of like broad
 

3427
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:59,790
going to see that sort of like broad
diffusion of AI into the economy

3428
00:49:59,790 --> 00:49:59,800
diffusion of AI into the economy
 

3429
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:02,190
diffusion of AI into the economy
happening first because that's not what

3430
00:50:02,190 --> 00:50:02,200
happening first because that's not what
 

3431
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:03,470
happening first because that's not what
they're focusing on first. They're

3432
00:50:03,470 --> 00:50:03,480
they're focusing on first. They're
 

3433
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:05,350
they're focusing on first. They're
focusing on automating themselves,

3434
00:50:05,350 --> 00:50:05,360
focusing on automating themselves,
 

3435
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:06,550
focusing on automating themselves,
automating their own research so that

3436
00:50:06,550 --> 00:50:06,560
automating their own research so that
 

3437
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,030
automating their own research so that
they can do everything that they're

3438
00:50:08,030 --> 00:50:08,040
they can do everything that they're
 

3439
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:09,350
they can do everything that they're
doing faster.

3440
00:50:09,350 --> 00:50:09,360
doing faster.
 

3441
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:11,270
doing faster.
And they want that to sort of get going

3442
00:50:11,270 --> 00:50:11,280
And they want that to sort of get going
 

3443
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:13,430
And they want that to sort of get going
and get to

3444
00:50:13,430 --> 00:50:13,440
and get to
 

3445
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:14,470
and get to
you know,

3446
00:50:14,470 --> 00:50:14,480
you know,
 

3447
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:15,990
you know,
very high levels of intelligence, very

3448
00:50:15,990 --> 00:50:16,000
very high levels of intelligence, very
 

3449
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,510
very high levels of intelligence, very
high levels of general intelligence um

3450
00:50:18,510 --> 00:50:18,520
high levels of general intelligence um
 

3451
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:20,310
high levels of general intelligence um
and then deploy more out to the economy.

3452
00:50:20,310 --> 00:50:20,320
and then deploy more out to the economy.
 

3453
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:22,470
and then deploy more out to the economy.
economy. Right? So,

3454
00:50:22,470 --> 00:50:22,480
economy. Right? So,
 

3455
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:23,990
economy. Right? So,
by the time it's actually coming for

3456
00:50:23,990 --> 00:50:24,000
by the time it's actually coming for
 

3457
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,750
by the time it's actually coming for
like all these different jobs,

3458
00:50:26,750 --> 00:50:26,760
like all these different jobs,
 

3459
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:28,670
like all these different jobs,
they will have had fully autonomous AI

3460
00:50:28,670 --> 00:50:28,680
they will have had fully autonomous AI
 

3461
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,990
they will have had fully autonomous AI
research happening for months, maybe

3462
00:50:30,990 --> 00:50:31,000
research happening for months, maybe
 

3463
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:32,830
research happening for months, maybe
years, you know?

3464
00:50:32,830 --> 00:50:32,840
years, you know?
 

3465
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:34,910
years, you know?
And that means that like the AIs will be

3466
00:50:34,910 --> 00:50:34,920
And that means that like the AIs will be
 

3467
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:37,470
And that means that like the AIs will be
vastly superhuman at AI research and

3468
00:50:37,470 --> 00:50:37,480
vastly superhuman at AI research and
 

3469
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:38,990
vastly superhuman at AI research and
probably also vastly superhuman at lots

3470
00:50:38,990 --> 00:50:39,000
probably also vastly superhuman at lots
 

3471
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:40,950
probably also vastly superhuman at lots
of other things just as a side effect,

3472
00:50:40,950 --> 00:50:40,960
of other things just as a side effect,
 

3473
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:42,230
of other things just as a side effect,
you know?

3474
00:50:42,230 --> 00:50:42,240
you know?
 

3475
00:50:42,240 --> 00:50:43,190
you know?
If you're wondering what this looks

3476
00:50:43,190 --> 00:50:43,200
If you're wondering what this looks
 

3477
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:44,750
If you're wondering what this looks
like, well,

3478
00:50:44,750 --> 00:50:44,760
like, well,
 

3479
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:45,750
like, well,
we wrote about what it looks like. It's

3480
00:50:45,750 --> 00:50:45,760
we wrote about what it looks like. It's
 

3481
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:48,350
we wrote about what it looks like. It's
sort of like this this wave smashing

3482
00:50:48,350 --> 00:50:48,360
sort of like this this wave smashing
 

3483
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:50,110
sort of like this this wave smashing
through the economy after they do the

3484
00:50:50,110 --> 00:50:50,120
through the economy after they do the
 

3485
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,070
through the economy after they do the
intelligence explosion internally.

3486
00:50:52,070 --> 00:50:52,080
intelligence explosion internally.
 

3487
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:54,030
intelligence explosion internally.
>> What I'm hearing there is that because

3488
00:50:54,030 --> 00:50:54,040
>> What I'm hearing there is that because
 

3489
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:56,390
>> What I'm hearing there is that because
the AI will be able to improve itself

3490
00:50:56,390 --> 00:50:56,400
the AI will be able to improve itself
 

3491
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:57,990
the AI will be able to improve itself
and train itself, it'll be getting

3492
00:50:57,990 --> 00:50:58,000
and train itself, it'll be getting
 

3493
00:50:58,000 --> 00:50:59,710
and train itself, it'll be getting
better at everything at once and then

3494
00:50:59,710 --> 00:50:59,720
better at everything at once and then
 

3495
00:50:59,720 --> 00:51:02,470
better at everything at once and then
it'll be released at kind of once.

3496
00:51:02,470 --> 00:51:02,480
it'll be released at kind of once.
 

3497
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:03,310
it'll be released at kind of once.
Is that accurate?

3498
00:51:03,310 --> 00:51:03,320
Is that accurate?
 

3499
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,070
Is that accurate?
>> it's it's not it's not even exactly that

3500
00:51:05,070 --> 00:51:05,080
>> it's it's not it's not even exactly that
 

3501
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:06,550
>> it's it's not it's not even exactly that
because even if it's mostly just getting

3502
00:51:06,550 --> 00:51:06,560
because even if it's mostly just getting
 

3503
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:07,670
because even if it's mostly just getting
better at the things that it's doing

3504
00:51:07,670 --> 00:51:07,680
better at the things that it's doing
 

3505
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:09,350
better at the things that it's doing
like research,

3506
00:51:09,350 --> 00:51:09,360
like research,
 

3507
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,390
like research,
that'll have some spillover effects

3508
00:51:11,390 --> 00:51:11,400
that'll have some spillover effects
 

3509
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:13,070
that'll have some spillover effects
to other skills as well.

3510
00:51:13,070 --> 00:51:13,080
to other skills as well.
 

3511
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:14,790
to other skills as well.
And then when it turns to the focusing

3512
00:51:14,790 --> 00:51:14,800
And then when it turns to the focusing
 

3513
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:16,390
And then when it turns to the focusing
on the those other skills, it'll be able

3514
00:51:16,390 --> 00:51:16,400
on the those other skills, it'll be able
 

3515
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:17,710
on the those other skills, it'll be able
to do them very fast.

3516
00:51:17,710 --> 00:51:17,720
to do them very fast.
 

3517
00:51:17,720 --> 00:51:19,630
to do them very fast.
>> What jobs remain in such a scenario, do

3518
00:51:19,630 --> 00:51:19,640
>> What jobs remain in such a scenario, do
 

3519
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:20,950
>> What jobs remain in such a scenario, do
you think?

3520
00:51:20,950 --> 00:51:20,960
you think?
 

3521
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:22,110
you think?
>> I think that's actually a political

3522
00:51:22,110 --> 00:51:22,120
>> I think that's actually a political
 

3523
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:23,710
>> I think that's actually a political
question, not a technical question.

3524
00:51:23,710 --> 00:51:23,720
question, not a technical question.
 

3525
00:51:23,720 --> 00:51:24,350
question, not a technical question.
>> Because

3526
00:51:24,350 --> 00:51:24,360
>> Because
 

3527
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,510
>> Because
>> Because on a technical level, all the

3528
00:51:26,510 --> 00:51:26,520
>> Because on a technical level, all the
 

3529
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,110
>> Because on a technical level, all the
jobs can be done by the AIs

3530
00:51:29,110 --> 00:51:29,120
jobs can be done by the AIs
 

3531
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:30,950
jobs can be done by the AIs
if they've reached that level.

3532
00:51:30,950 --> 00:51:30,960
if they've reached that level.
 

3533
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:33,070
if they've reached that level.
And so, it's a question of what jobs are

3534
00:51:33,070 --> 00:51:33,080
And so, it's a question of what jobs are
 

3535
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:34,270
And so, it's a question of what jobs are
allowed

3536
00:51:34,270 --> 00:51:34,280
allowed
 

3537
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:34,990
allowed
for them to do.

3538
00:51:34,990 --> 00:51:35,000
for them to do.
 

3539
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:36,030
for them to do.
>> And what kind of jobs wouldn't be

3540
00:51:36,030 --> 00:51:36,040
>> And what kind of jobs wouldn't be
 

3541
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:37,830
>> And what kind of jobs wouldn't be
allowed, do you think?

3542
00:51:37,830 --> 00:51:37,840
allowed, do you think?
 

3543
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:39,950
allowed, do you think?
>> That depends on who's in charge. So,

3544
00:51:39,950 --> 00:51:39,960
>> That depends on who's in charge. So,
 

3545
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:40,790
>> That depends on who's in charge. So,
there'd be some sort of political

3546
00:51:40,790 --> 00:51:40,800
there'd be some sort of political
 

3547
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:41,910
there'd be some sort of political
conversation about like what we're going

3548
00:51:41,910 --> 00:51:41,920
conversation about like what we're going
 

3549
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:43,030
conversation about like what we're going
to allow and disallow.

3550
00:51:43,030 --> 00:51:43,040
to allow and disallow.
 

3551
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:44,470
to allow and disallow.
>> I mean, in this scenario, the humans are

3552
00:51:44,470 --> 00:51:44,480
>> I mean, in this scenario, the humans are
 

3553
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,750
>> I mean, in this scenario, the humans are
still controlling them, the AIs.

3554
00:51:46,750 --> 00:51:46,760
still controlling them, the AIs.
 

3555
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:47,710
still controlling them, the AIs.
>> Depends on what you mean by control,

3556
00:51:47,710 --> 00:51:47,720
>> Depends on what you mean by control,
 

3557
00:51:47,720 --> 00:51:49,230
>> Depends on what you mean by control,
right? So, there's like

3558
00:51:49,230 --> 00:51:49,240
right? So, there's like
 

3559
00:51:49,240 --> 00:51:50,630
right? So, there's like
there's do the AIs actually have the

3560
00:51:50,630 --> 00:51:50,640
there's do the AIs actually have the
 

3561
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:51,990
there's do the AIs actually have the
goals and values that you want them to

3562
00:51:51,990 --> 00:51:52,000
goals and values that you want them to
 

3563
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,350
goals and values that you want them to
have, and are they going to robustly

3564
00:51:54,350 --> 00:51:54,360
have, and are they going to robustly
 

3565
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:56,030
have, and are they going to robustly
do that and behave as intended into the

3566
00:51:56,030 --> 00:51:56,040
do that and behave as intended into the
 

3567
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:57,790
do that and behave as intended into the
future? And then there's like are they

3568
00:51:57,790 --> 00:51:57,800
future? And then there's like are they
 

3569
00:51:57,800 --> 00:51:59,230
future? And then there's like are they
obeying your orders for now?

3570
00:51:59,230 --> 00:51:59,240
obeying your orders for now?
 

3571
00:51:59,240 --> 00:52:00,350
obeying your orders for now?
>> Are they obeying the orders is really

3572
00:52:00,350 --> 00:52:00,360
>> Are they obeying the orders is really
 

3573
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:00,990
>> Are they obeying the orders is really
what I'm saying.

3574
00:52:00,990 --> 00:52:01,000
what I'm saying.
 

3575
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:03,350
what I'm saying.
>> Yeah. So, like even in AI 24/7 in the

3576
00:52:03,350 --> 00:52:03,360
>> Yeah. So, like even in AI 24/7 in the
 

3577
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:04,590
>> Yeah. So, like even in AI 24/7 in the
scenario where the AIs take over and

3578
00:52:04,590 --> 00:52:04,600
scenario where the AIs take over and
 

3579
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:06,430
scenario where the AIs take over and
kill everyone, there's a period of like

3580
00:52:06,430 --> 00:52:06,440
kill everyone, there's a period of like
 

3581
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:07,870
kill everyone, there's a period of like
several years where they're still

3582
00:52:07,870 --> 00:52:07,880
several years where they're still
 

3583
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:09,430
several years where they're still
obeying orders,

3584
00:52:09,430 --> 00:52:09,440
obeying orders,
 

3585
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:10,750
obeying orders,
and they're, you know,

3586
00:52:10,750 --> 00:52:10,760
and they're, you know,
 

3587
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:12,510
and they're, you know,
taking some jobs but not other jobs, and

3588
00:52:12,510 --> 00:52:12,520
taking some jobs but not other jobs, and
 

3589
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:14,470
taking some jobs but not other jobs, and
they're helping to make better weapons

3590
00:52:14,470 --> 00:52:14,480
they're helping to make better weapons
 

3591
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:17,150
they're helping to make better weapons
that the US government can use to like

3592
00:52:17,150 --> 00:52:17,160
that the US government can use to like
 

3593
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:18,830
that the US government can use to like
do its arms race with China and so

3594
00:52:18,830 --> 00:52:18,840
do its arms race with China and so
 

3595
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:22,950
do its arms race with China and so
forth. And that's why they're able to

3596
00:52:22,950 --> 00:52:22,960
forth. And that's why they're able to
 

3597
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:26,030
forth. And that's why they're able to
get so much power so quickly is because

3598
00:52:26,030 --> 00:52:26,040
get so much power so quickly is because
 

3599
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:27,430
get so much power so quickly is because
the governments and the corporations and

3600
00:52:27,430 --> 00:52:27,440
the governments and the corporations and
 

3601
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,550
the governments and the corporations and
so forth trust them and is deliberately

3602
00:52:30,550 --> 00:52:30,560
so forth trust them and is deliberately
 

3603
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,630
so forth trust them and is deliberately
deploying them into all of these

3604
00:52:32,630 --> 00:52:32,640
deploying them into all of these
 

3605
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:34,830
deploying them into all of these
positions because it thinks that things

3606
00:52:34,830 --> 00:52:34,840
positions because it thinks that things
 

3607
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:35,830
positions because it thinks that things
are fine.

3608
00:52:35,830 --> 00:52:35,840
are fine.
 

3609
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:37,110
are fine.
But because these things are neural

3610
00:52:37,110 --> 00:52:37,120
But because these things are neural
 

3611
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:38,110
But because these things are neural
nets,

3612
00:52:38,110 --> 00:52:38,120
nets,
 

3613
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:39,950
nets,
you can't just like look inside and see

3614
00:52:39,950 --> 00:52:39,960
you can't just like look inside and see
 

3615
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:41,150
you can't just like look inside and see
what it's really thinking. You can't

3616
00:52:41,150 --> 00:52:41,160
what it's really thinking. You can't
 

3617
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:42,430
what it's really thinking. You can't
really tell.

3618
00:52:42,430 --> 00:52:42,440
really tell.
 

3619
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:43,830
really tell.
>> I think this is a really important point

3620
00:52:43,830 --> 00:52:43,840
>> I think this is a really important point
 

3621
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:45,670
>> I think this is a really important point
because unlike software where we can

3622
00:52:45,670 --> 00:52:45,680
because unlike software where we can
 

3623
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:46,710
because unlike software where we can
look at the code and see what's going

3624
00:52:46,710 --> 00:52:46,720
look at the code and see what's going
 

3625
00:52:46,720 --> 00:52:49,150
look at the code and see what's going
on, theoretically, with AI you're saying

3626
00:52:49,150 --> 00:52:49,160
on, theoretically, with AI you're saying
 

3627
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:51,070
on, theoretically, with AI you're saying
that we don't know what why it's making

3628
00:52:51,070 --> 00:52:51,080
that we don't know what why it's making
 

3629
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:52,390
that we don't know what why it's making
the decisions that it's making cuz we

3630
00:52:52,390 --> 00:52:52,400
the decisions that it's making cuz we
 

3631
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:53,710
the decisions that it's making cuz we
can't get inside.

3632
00:52:53,710 --> 00:52:53,720
can't get inside.
 

3633
00:52:53,720 --> 00:52:55,670
can't get inside.
>> One note of optimism is that it doesn't

3634
00:52:55,670 --> 00:52:55,680
>> One note of optimism is that it doesn't
 

3635
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:57,630
>> One note of optimism is that it doesn't
necessarily have to be that way. Like

3636
00:52:57,630 --> 00:52:57,640
necessarily have to be that way. Like
 

3637
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,150
necessarily have to be that way. Like
there's a a subfield of machine learning

3638
00:52:59,150 --> 00:52:59,160
there's a a subfield of machine learning
 

3639
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,310
there's a a subfield of machine learning
called mechanistic interpretability, and

3640
00:53:01,310 --> 00:53:01,320
called mechanistic interpretability, and
 

3641
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:02,510
called mechanistic interpretability, and
a a broader subfield called

3642
00:53:02,510 --> 00:53:02,520
a a broader subfield called
 

3643
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:04,590
a a broader subfield called
interpretability more generally that's

3644
00:53:04,590 --> 00:53:04,600
interpretability more generally that's
 

3645
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,150
interpretability more generally that's
trying to solve that problem and trying

3646
00:53:06,150 --> 00:53:06,160
trying to solve that problem and trying
 

3647
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,510
trying to solve that problem and trying
to take these these trained artificial

3648
00:53:08,510 --> 00:53:08,520
to take these these trained artificial
 

3649
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:10,150
to take these these trained artificial
neural nets and piece [snorts] them

3650
00:53:10,150 --> 00:53:10,160
neural nets and piece [snorts] them
 

3651
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:11,950
neural nets and piece [snorts] them
apart and understand

3652
00:53:11,950 --> 00:53:11,960
apart and understand
 

3653
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:13,270
apart and understand
like how the information is flowing and

3654
00:53:13,270 --> 00:53:13,280
like how the information is flowing and
 

3655
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:15,550
like how the information is flowing and
how the decisions are being made, so to

3656
00:53:15,550 --> 00:53:15,560
how the decisions are being made, so to
 

3657
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:17,790
how the decisions are being made, so to
speak. Um the problem is just it's a

3658
00:53:17,790 --> 00:53:17,800
speak. Um the problem is just it's a
 

3659
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:18,950
speak. Um the problem is just it's a
very inherently hard problem. If you

3660
00:53:18,950 --> 00:53:18,960
very inherently hard problem. If you
 

3661
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:21,870
very inherently hard problem. If you
have 10 trillion connections to look at,

3662
00:53:21,870 --> 00:53:21,880
have 10 trillion connections to look at,
 

3663
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:23,270
have 10 trillion connections to look at,
you can look at any particular group of

3664
00:53:23,270 --> 00:53:23,280
you can look at any particular group of
 

3665
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:24,910
you can look at any particular group of
them and be like, "Okay, so this is how

3666
00:53:24,910 --> 00:53:24,920
them and be like, "Okay, so this is how
 

3667
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:26,430
them and be like, "Okay, so this is how
like this particular connection works."

3668
00:53:26,430 --> 00:53:26,440
like this particular connection works."
 

3669
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:28,350
like this particular connection works."
But like how do you get a sense of the

3670
00:53:28,350 --> 00:53:28,360
But like how do you get a sense of the
 

3671
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:29,430
But like how do you get a sense of the
whole, you know? How do you get a sense

3672
00:53:29,430 --> 00:53:29,440
whole, you know? How do you get a sense
 

3673
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:30,430
whole, you know? How do you get a sense
of like

3674
00:53:30,430 --> 00:53:30,440
of like
 

3675
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:31,550
of like
what's happening at a high level? And

3676
00:53:31,550 --> 00:53:31,560
what's happening at a high level? And
 

3677
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:32,830
what's happening at a high level? And
the answer is, "Well, it might be

3678
00:53:32,830 --> 00:53:32,840
the answer is, "Well, it might be
 

3679
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:34,390
the answer is, "Well, it might be
impossible." But people are working on

3680
00:53:34,390 --> 00:53:34,400
impossible." But people are working on
 

3681
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,910
impossible." But people are working on
it and they are making progress, and

3682
00:53:36,910 --> 00:53:36,920
it and they are making progress, and
 

3683
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:38,550
it and they are making progress, and
if they can make enough progress, then

3684
00:53:38,550 --> 00:53:38,560
if they can make enough progress, then
 

3685
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:39,870
if they can make enough progress, then
we're in a very different and much

3686
00:53:39,870 --> 00:53:39,880
we're in a very different and much
 

3687
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:42,510
we're in a very different and much
brighter world. I think that it would be

3688
00:53:42,510 --> 00:53:42,520
brighter world. I think that it would be
 

3689
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:44,190
brighter world. I think that it would be
much less likely for us to get into

3690
00:53:44,190 --> 00:53:44,200
much less likely for us to get into
 

3691
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,310
much less likely for us to get into
those loss of control scenarios if we

3692
00:53:46,310 --> 00:53:46,320
those loss of control scenarios if we
 

3693
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:47,950
those loss of control scenarios if we
could just actually see what our AIs

3694
00:53:47,950 --> 00:53:47,960
could just actually see what our AIs
 

3695
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:50,310
could just actually see what our AIs
were thinking and why and how at any

3696
00:53:50,310 --> 00:53:50,320
were thinking and why and how at any
 

3697
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:51,430
were thinking and why and how at any
given time.

3698
00:53:51,430 --> 00:53:51,440
given time.
 

3699
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:51,830
given time.
Right?

3700
00:53:51,830 --> 00:53:51,840
Right?
 

3701
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:52,270
Right?
>> Yeah.

3702
00:53:52,270 --> 00:53:52,280
>> Yeah.
 

3703
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:53,750
>> Yeah.
>> So, we would still have the other

3704
00:53:53,750 --> 00:53:53,760
>> So, we would still have the other
 

3705
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:55,150
>> So, we would still have the other
problems to worry about, but at least we

3706
00:53:55,150 --> 00:53:55,160
problems to worry about, but at least we
 

3707
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:56,270
problems to worry about, but at least we
could mostly solve that one.

3708
00:53:56,270 --> 00:53:56,280
could mostly solve that one.
 

3709
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:57,470
could mostly solve that one.
>> It is pretty crazy to think that we're

3710
00:53:57,470 --> 00:53:57,480
>> It is pretty crazy to think that we're
 

3711
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:59,190
>> It is pretty crazy to think that we're
building a technology, a brain that we

3712
00:53:59,190 --> 00:53:59,200
building a technology, a brain that we
 

3713
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:00,110
building a technology, a brain that we
don't understand.

3714
00:54:00,110 --> 00:54:00,120
don't understand.
 

3715
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:01,750
don't understand.
>> Yeah, it's pretty crazy. I mean, it's

3716
00:54:01,750 --> 00:54:01,760
>> Yeah, it's pretty crazy. I mean, it's
 

3717
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:02,990
>> Yeah, it's pretty crazy. I mean, it's
one of those things where like

3718
00:54:02,990 --> 00:54:03,000
one of those things where like
 

3719
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:05,070
one of those things where like
>> In a movie, like a sci-fi movie, a bunch

3720
00:54:05,070 --> 00:54:05,080
>> In a movie, like a sci-fi movie, a bunch
 

3721
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:06,550
>> In a movie, like a sci-fi movie, a bunch
of scientists sit around this big brain

3722
00:54:06,550 --> 00:54:06,560
of scientists sit around this big brain
 

3723
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:07,630
of scientists sit around this big brain
and they're all just like they're

3724
00:54:07,630 --> 00:54:07,640
and they're all just like they're
 

3725
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:08,870
and they're all just like they're
they're making it more they're feeding

3726
00:54:08,870 --> 00:54:08,880
they're making it more they're feeding
 

3727
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:09,510
they're making it more they're feeding
it.

3728
00:54:09,510 --> 00:54:09,520
it.
 

3729
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:09,790
it.
>> Yeah.

3730
00:54:09,790 --> 00:54:09,800
>> Yeah.
 

3731
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:10,870
>> Yeah.
>> And they don't really know what the

3732
00:54:10,870 --> 00:54:10,880
>> And they don't really know what the
 

3733
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:11,110
>> And they don't really know what the
it is.

3734
00:54:11,110 --> 00:54:11,120
it is.
 

3735
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:12,230
it is.
>> Yeah, I mean, it's it's kind of just

3736
00:54:12,230 --> 00:54:12,240
>> Yeah, I mean, it's it's kind of just
 

3737
00:54:12,240 --> 00:54:13,590
>> Yeah, I mean, it's it's kind of just
like obviously a dangerous thing to be

3738
00:54:13,590 --> 00:54:13,600
like obviously a dangerous thing to be
 

3739
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:14,230
like obviously a dangerous thing to be
doing.

3740
00:54:14,230 --> 00:54:14,240
doing.
 

3741
00:54:14,240 --> 00:54:14,590
doing.
>> Yeah.

3742
00:54:14,590 --> 00:54:14,600
>> Yeah.
 

3743
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:16,510
>> Yeah.
>> Um but we're doing it anyway because of

3744
00:54:16,510 --> 00:54:16,520
>> Um but we're doing it anyway because of
 

3745
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:18,030
>> Um but we're doing it anyway because of
this history of how the field has

3746
00:54:18,030 --> 00:54:18,040
this history of how the field has
 

3747
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,190
this history of how the field has
developed in the last 10 years where

3748
00:54:20,190 --> 00:54:20,200
developed in the last 10 years where
 

3749
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:21,390
developed in the last 10 years where
you know, people were like, "Oh wow,

3750
00:54:21,390 --> 00:54:21,400
you know, people were like, "Oh wow,
 

3751
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:23,110
you know, people were like, "Oh wow,
yeah, that's obviously dangerous. Oh no,

3752
00:54:23,110 --> 00:54:23,120
yeah, that's obviously dangerous. Oh no,
 

3753
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:24,830
yeah, that's obviously dangerous. Oh no,
what if someone else did it and did a

3754
00:54:24,830 --> 00:54:24,840
what if someone else did it and did a
 

3755
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:26,670
what if someone else did it and did a
bad job of it? Therefore, we should do

3756
00:54:26,670 --> 00:54:26,680
bad job of it? Therefore, we should do
 

3757
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,110
bad job of it? Therefore, we should do
it and do a good job of it and now

3758
00:54:29,110 --> 00:54:29,120
it and do a good job of it and now
 

3759
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:30,870
it and do a good job of it and now
they're in this race where

3760
00:54:30,870 --> 00:54:30,880
they're in this race where
 

3761
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:32,070
they're in this race where
where they're racing each other and

3762
00:54:32,070 --> 00:54:32,080
where they're racing each other and
 

3763
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:33,030
where they're racing each other and
they're also under all sorts of

3764
00:54:33,030 --> 00:54:33,040
they're also under all sorts of
 

3765
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:34,470
they're also under all sorts of
political pressure to like pretend that

3766
00:54:34,470 --> 00:54:34,480
political pressure to like pretend that
 

3767
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,710
political pressure to like pretend that
it's not as bad as it seems because

3768
00:54:36,710 --> 00:54:36,720
it's not as bad as it seems because
 

3769
00:54:36,720 --> 00:54:38,190
it's not as bad as it seems because
they don't want to like

3770
00:54:38,190 --> 00:54:38,200
they don't want to like
 

3771
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:39,470
they don't want to like
anger their investors, they don't want

3772
00:54:39,470 --> 00:54:39,480
anger their investors, they don't want
 

3773
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,590
anger their investors, they don't want
to anger the White House.

3774
00:54:41,590 --> 00:54:41,600
to anger the White House.
 

3775
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:43,030
to anger the White House.
>> One of the the key questions we had from

3776
00:54:43,030 --> 00:54:43,040
>> One of the the key questions we had from
 

3777
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:44,590
>> One of the the key questions we had from
our audience was which and I kind of

3778
00:54:44,590 --> 00:54:44,600
our audience was which and I kind of
 

3779
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:46,790
our audience was which and I kind of
asked you this in part, but which jobs

3780
00:54:46,790 --> 00:54:46,800
asked you this in part, but which jobs
 

3781
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,190
asked you this in part, but which jobs
are genuinely likely to survive AI and

3782
00:54:49,190 --> 00:54:49,200
are genuinely likely to survive AI and
 

3783
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:51,150
are genuinely likely to survive AI and
what skills should people \{slash\}

3784
00:54:51,150 --> 00:54:51,160
what skills should people \{slash\}
 

3785
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:52,990
what skills should people \{slash\}
students focus on over the next 10

3786
00:54:52,990 --> 00:54:53,000
students focus on over the next 10
 

3787
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:53,830
students focus on over the next 10
years?

3788
00:54:53,830 --> 00:54:53,840
years?
 

3789
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:55,750
years?
>> That's kind of like

3790
00:54:55,750 --> 00:54:55,760
>> That's kind of like
 

3791
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:57,750
>> That's kind of like
like imagine if you were someone living

3792
00:54:57,750 --> 00:54:57,760
like imagine if you were someone living
 

3793
00:54:57,760 --> 00:54:59,670
like imagine if you were someone living
in Mexico

3794
00:54:59,670 --> 00:54:59,680
in Mexico
 

3795
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:03,310
in Mexico
in like 1500 and then you hear that like

3796
00:55:03,310 --> 00:55:03,320
in like 1500 and then you hear that like
 

3797
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:05,910
in like 1500 and then you hear that like
the conquistadors are coming.

3798
00:55:05,910 --> 00:55:05,920
the conquistadors are coming.
 

3799
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:06,910
the conquistadors are coming.
You could be asking yourself like,

3800
00:55:06,910 --> 00:55:06,920
You could be asking yourself like,
 

3801
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:08,030
You could be asking yourself like,
"Okay, well, what sort of job should I

3802
00:55:08,030 --> 00:55:08,040
"Okay, well, what sort of job should I
 

3803
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,310
"Okay, well, what sort of job should I
be switching to to like survive this

3804
00:55:10,310 --> 00:55:10,320
be switching to to like survive this
 

3805
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:11,590
be switching to to like survive this
transition?"

3806
00:55:11,590 --> 00:55:11,600
transition?"
 

3807
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:13,750
transition?"
But like, you have a lot more to worry

3808
00:55:13,750 --> 00:55:13,760
But like, you have a lot more to worry
 

3809
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:15,830
But like, you have a lot more to worry
about besides that. But yes, I think I

3810
00:55:15,830 --> 00:55:15,840
about besides that. But yes, I think I
 

3811
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,350
about besides that. But yes, I think I
would say that like if we managed to

3812
00:55:17,350 --> 00:55:17,360
would say that like if we managed to
 

3813
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,790
would say that like if we managed to
avoid the loss of control problem

3814
00:55:19,790 --> 00:55:19,800
avoid the loss of control problem
 

3815
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:21,910
avoid the loss of control problem
and we end up with humans still

3816
00:55:21,910 --> 00:55:21,920
and we end up with humans still
 

3817
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:23,670
and we end up with humans still
in charge of the AIs and humans can like

3818
00:55:23,670 --> 00:55:23,680
in charge of the AIs and humans can like
 

3819
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:25,070
in charge of the AIs and humans can like
say what the AIs goals and values are

3820
00:55:25,070 --> 00:55:25,080
say what the AIs goals and values are
 

3821
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,230
say what the AIs goals and values are
supposed to be even as they become much

3822
00:55:27,230 --> 00:55:27,240
supposed to be even as they become much
 

3823
00:55:27,240 --> 00:55:28,950
supposed to be even as they become much
smarter than humans and even as they run

3824
00:55:28,950 --> 00:55:28,960
smarter than humans and even as they run
 

3825
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:30,550
smarter than humans and even as they run
the whole economy

3826
00:55:30,550 --> 00:55:30,560
the whole economy
 

3827
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:32,150
the whole economy
then probably there will be regulation

3828
00:55:32,150 --> 00:55:32,160
then probably there will be regulation
 

3829
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,190
then probably there will be regulation
that protects some areas

3830
00:55:34,190 --> 00:55:34,200
that protects some areas
 

3831
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:36,070
that protects some areas
and you can try to guess at what those

3832
00:55:36,070 --> 00:55:36,080
and you can try to guess at what those
 

3833
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:37,830
and you can try to guess at what those
areas might be. Maybe stuff that's more

3834
00:55:37,830 --> 00:55:37,840
areas might be. Maybe stuff that's more
 

3835
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:39,550
areas might be. Maybe stuff that's more
like

3836
00:55:39,550 --> 00:55:39,560
like
 

3837
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:41,510
like
like like judges potentially.

3838
00:55:41,510 --> 00:55:41,520
like like judges potentially.
 

3839
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,390
like like judges potentially.
>> What about podcasters?

3840
00:55:44,390 --> 00:55:44,400
>> What about podcasters?
 

3841
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:44,950
>> What about podcasters?
Be honest.

3842
00:55:44,950 --> 00:55:44,960
Be honest.
 

3843
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:47,910
Be honest.
>> Probably not podcasters, I think. Um

3844
00:55:47,910 --> 00:55:47,920
>> Probably not podcasters, I think. Um
 

3845
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:49,630
>> Probably not podcasters, I think. Um
stuff like

3846
00:55:49,630 --> 00:55:49,640
stuff like
 

3847
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:51,070
stuff like
you know, being a nanny

3848
00:55:51,070 --> 00:55:51,080
you know, being a nanny
 

3849
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,310
you know, being a nanny
maybe, right? Like I think that even if

3850
00:55:53,310 --> 00:55:53,320
maybe, right? Like I think that even if
 

3851
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:55,310
maybe, right? Like I think that even if
there's a robot nanny that's like really

3852
00:55:55,310 --> 00:55:55,320
there's a robot nanny that's like really
 

3853
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:56,590
there's a robot nanny that's like really
really good, I think a bunch of people

3854
00:55:56,590 --> 00:55:56,600
really good, I think a bunch of people
 

3855
00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:57,870
really good, I think a bunch of people
might prefer to have an actual human

3856
00:55:57,870 --> 00:55:57,880
might prefer to have an actual human
 

3857
00:55:57,880 --> 00:55:59,070
might prefer to have an actual human
because they might be creeped out by the

3858
00:55:59,070 --> 00:55:59,080
because they might be creeped out by the
 

3859
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,390
because they might be creeped out by the
idea of a really good robot nanny. So,

3860
00:56:01,390 --> 00:56:01,400
idea of a really good robot nanny. So,
 

3861
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:02,550
idea of a really good robot nanny. So,
you can sort of you can sort of reason

3862
00:56:02,550 --> 00:56:02,560
you can sort of you can sort of reason
 

3863
00:56:02,560 --> 00:56:05,030
you can sort of you can sort of reason
like that. There's also like

3864
00:56:05,030 --> 00:56:05,040
like that. There's also like
 

3865
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:06,190
like that. There's also like
stuff that might be legally protected.

3866
00:56:06,190 --> 00:56:06,200
stuff that might be legally protected.
 

3867
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:08,070
stuff that might be legally protected.
Like maybe judges, for example, like are

3868
00:56:08,070 --> 00:56:08,080
Like maybe judges, for example, like are
 

3869
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:09,070
Like maybe judges, for example, like are
going to be legally required to be

3870
00:56:09,070 --> 00:56:09,080
going to be legally required to be
 

3871
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:10,750
going to be legally required to be
humans and not robots.

3872
00:56:10,750 --> 00:56:10,760
humans and not robots.
 

3873
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:12,070
humans and not robots.
>> Some people say though there's going to

3874
00:56:12,070 --> 00:56:12,080
>> Some people say though there's going to
 

3875
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:13,590
>> Some people say though there's going to
be so many jobs created that we can't

3876
00:56:13,590 --> 00:56:13,600
be so many jobs created that we can't
 

3877
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:15,190
be so many jobs created that we can't
foresee right now like there was in the

3878
00:56:15,190 --> 00:56:15,200
foresee right now like there was in the
 

3879
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:17,150
foresee right now like there was in the
industrial revolution or the internet

3880
00:56:17,150 --> 00:56:17,160
industrial revolution or the internet
 

3881
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:18,510
industrial revolution or the internet
boom or whatever.

3882
00:56:18,510 --> 00:56:18,520
boom or whatever.
 

3883
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:20,350
boom or whatever.
>> The problem with that is that

3884
00:56:20,350 --> 00:56:20,360
>> The problem with that is that
 

3885
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,470
>> The problem with that is that
um past technological advancements have

3886
00:56:23,470 --> 00:56:23,480
um past technological advancements have
 

3887
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:25,910
um past technological advancements have
been more narrow. They've like automated

3888
00:56:25,910 --> 00:56:25,920
been more narrow. They've like automated
 

3889
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:27,950
been more narrow. They've like automated
some things but not everything.

3890
00:56:27,950 --> 00:56:27,960
some things but not everything.
 

3891
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:29,670
some things but not everything.
But we are talking about a hypothetical

3892
00:56:29,670 --> 00:56:29,680
But we are talking about a hypothetical
 

3893
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:30,990
But we are talking about a hypothetical
future situation in which everything

3894
00:56:30,990 --> 00:56:31,000
future situation in which everything
 

3895
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:33,470
future situation in which everything
gets automated. So, there isn't any new

3896
00:56:33,470 --> 00:56:33,480
gets automated. So, there isn't any new
 

3897
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:35,790
gets automated. So, there isn't any new
job that you could do that AI couldn't

3898
00:56:35,790 --> 00:56:35,800
job that you could do that AI couldn't
 

3899
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:37,270
job that you could do that AI couldn't
also do.

3900
00:56:37,270 --> 00:56:37,280
also do.
 

3901
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:38,990
also do.
Except if it's like protected by

3902
00:56:38,990 --> 00:56:39,000
Except if it's like protected by
 

3903
00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:40,430
Except if it's like protected by
regulation or something. That's that's

3904
00:56:40,430 --> 00:56:40,440
regulation or something. That's that's
 

3905
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:43,070
regulation or something. That's that's
that's also a thing. But so like for

3906
00:56:43,070 --> 00:56:43,080
that's also a thing. But so like for
 

3907
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:44,950
that's also a thing. But so like for
example, right now there's this sort of

3908
00:56:44,950 --> 00:56:44,960
example, right now there's this sort of
 

3909
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:47,630
example, right now there's this sort of
like cycle where

3910
00:56:47,630 --> 00:56:47,640
like cycle where
 

3911
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:48,550
like cycle where
you know

3912
00:56:48,550 --> 00:56:48,560
you know
 

3913
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:50,110
you know
the AI's learn to do a certain thing

3914
00:56:50,110 --> 00:56:50,120
the AI's learn to do a certain thing
 

3915
00:56:50,120 --> 00:56:54,470
the AI's learn to do a certain thing
like write copy or like draft code or

3916
00:56:54,470 --> 00:56:54,480
like write copy or like draft code or
 

3917
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:56,150
like write copy or like draft code or
like debug something.

3918
00:56:56,150 --> 00:56:56,160
like debug something.
 

3919
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:57,390
like debug something.
And then humans who used to do that

3920
00:56:57,390 --> 00:56:57,400
And then humans who used to do that
 

3921
00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:00,710
And then humans who used to do that
thing switch to managing AIs or switch

3922
00:57:00,710 --> 00:57:00,720
thing switch to managing AIs or switch
 

3923
00:57:00,720 --> 00:57:01,830
thing switch to managing AIs or switch
to doing the other stuff that the AIs

3924
00:57:01,830 --> 00:57:01,840
to doing the other stuff that the AIs
 

3925
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:03,030
to doing the other stuff that the AIs
can't do.

3926
00:57:03,030 --> 00:57:03,040
can't do.
 

3927
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:04,830
can't do.
And that's why there's been this dynamic

3928
00:57:04,830 --> 00:57:04,840
And that's why there's been this dynamic
 

3929
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:06,430
And that's why there's been this dynamic
historically of

3930
00:57:06,430 --> 00:57:06,440
historically of
 

3931
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:08,710
historically of
you know, new jobs opening up and people

3932
00:57:08,710 --> 00:57:08,720
you know, new jobs opening up and people
 

3933
00:57:08,720 --> 00:57:10,710
you know, new jobs opening up and people
flooding to them. But

3934
00:57:10,710 --> 00:57:10,720
flooding to them. But
 

3935
00:57:10,720 --> 00:57:11,710
flooding to them. But
if it gets to the point where the AIs

3936
00:57:11,710 --> 00:57:11,720
if it gets to the point where the AIs
 

3937
00:57:11,720 --> 00:57:13,390
if it gets to the point where the AIs
can do everything that humans can do and

3938
00:57:13,390 --> 00:57:13,400
can do everything that humans can do and
 

3939
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:15,230
can do everything that humans can do and
better and faster and cheaper, then

3940
00:57:15,230 --> 00:57:15,240
better and faster and cheaper, then
 

3941
00:57:15,240 --> 00:57:16,470
better and faster and cheaper, then
whatever that new job is that you might

3942
00:57:16,470 --> 00:57:16,480
whatever that new job is that you might
 

3943
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:17,590
whatever that new job is that you might
have switched to, that the AIs can

3944
00:57:17,590 --> 00:57:17,600
have switched to, that the AIs can
 

3945
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:18,910
have switched to, that the AIs can
switch to that too and they'll already

3946
00:57:18,910 --> 00:57:18,920
switch to that too and they'll already
 

3947
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:20,990
switch to that too and they'll already
be be better at it than you.

3948
00:57:20,990 --> 00:57:21,000
be be better at it than you.
 

3949
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:22,670
be be better at it than you.
>> Because we haven't seen widespread

3950
00:57:22,670 --> 00:57:22,680
>> Because we haven't seen widespread
 

3951
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:24,270
>> Because we haven't seen widespread
unemployment yet in the economy, do you

3952
00:57:24,270 --> 00:57:24,280
unemployment yet in the economy, do you
 

3953
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:25,390
unemployment yet in the economy, do you
think people are getting a little bit

3954
00:57:25,390 --> 00:57:25,400
think people are getting a little bit
 

3955
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:26,950
think people are getting a little bit
complacent because what I'm seeing on my

3956
00:57:26,950 --> 00:57:26,960
complacent because what I'm seeing on my
 

3957
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:28,230
complacent because what I'm seeing on my
timeline is a lot of people saying I

3958
00:57:28,230 --> 00:57:28,240
timeline is a lot of people saying I
 

3959
00:57:28,240 --> 00:57:29,710
timeline is a lot of people saying I
told you so, I told you everything would

3960
00:57:29,710 --> 00:57:29,720
told you so, I told you everything would
 

3961
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:32,790
told you so, I told you everything would
be fine. And when you look at the the US

3962
00:57:32,790 --> 00:57:32,800
be fine. And when you look at the the US
 

3963
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:34,630
be fine. And when you look at the the US
unemployment rate, currently the it's

3964
00:57:34,630 --> 00:57:34,640
unemployment rate, currently the it's
 

3965
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:36,630
unemployment rate, currently the it's
flat to slightly down. If you look at

3966
00:57:36,630 --> 00:57:36,640
flat to slightly down. If you look at
 

3967
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,550
flat to slightly down. If you look at
the UK, it is up. The trend is up

3968
00:57:39,550 --> 00:57:39,560
the UK, it is up. The trend is up
 

3969
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:41,590
the UK, it is up. The trend is up
compared to last year. We're at about 5%

3970
00:57:41,590 --> 00:57:41,600
compared to last year. We're at about 5%
 

3971
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:43,870
compared to last year. We're at about 5%
unemployment. The US is at 4.2%

3972
00:57:43,870 --> 00:57:43,880
unemployment. The US is at 4.2%
 

3973
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:44,670
unemployment. The US is at 4.2%
unemployment.

3974
00:57:44,670 --> 00:57:44,680
unemployment.
 

3975
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:46,590
unemployment.
>> Yeah. Basically, nobody has said that

3976
00:57:46,590 --> 00:57:46,600
>> Yeah. Basically, nobody has said that
 

3977
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:48,150
>> Yeah. Basically, nobody has said that
there would be mass unemployment by now.

3978
00:57:48,150 --> 00:57:48,160
there would be mass unemployment by now.
 

3979
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:49,750
there would be mass unemployment by now.
Or at least we didn't say that. You

3980
00:57:49,750 --> 00:57:49,760
Or at least we didn't say that. You
 

3981
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:51,390
Or at least we didn't say that. You
know, and we were historically one of

3982
00:57:51,390 --> 00:57:51,400
know, and we were historically one of
 

3983
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:53,670
know, and we were historically one of
the more bullish people on AI progress.

3984
00:57:53,670 --> 00:57:53,680
the more bullish people on AI progress.
 

3985
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:55,390
the more bullish people on AI progress.
In AI 2027, because of the dynamics that

3986
00:57:55,390 --> 00:57:55,400
In AI 2027, because of the dynamics that
 

3987
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:57,230
In AI 2027, because of the dynamics that
we just described, the mass unemployment

3988
00:57:57,230 --> 00:57:57,240
we just described, the mass unemployment
 

3989
00:57:57,240 --> 00:57:59,550
we just described, the mass unemployment
doesn't happen until 2028 or 2029 after

3990
00:57:59,550 --> 00:57:59,560
doesn't happen until 2028 or 2029 after
 

3991
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:01,190
doesn't happen until 2028 or 2029 after
they already have superintelligence.

3992
00:58:01,190 --> 00:58:01,200
they already have superintelligence.
 

3993
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:02,790
they already have superintelligence.
Because, again, the companies aren't

3994
00:58:02,790 --> 00:58:02,800
Because, again, the companies aren't
 

3995
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:04,950
Because, again, the companies aren't
trying to cause mass unemployment as

3996
00:58:04,950 --> 00:58:04,960
trying to cause mass unemployment as
 

3997
00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:08,150
trying to cause mass unemployment as
step one. That's like step three after

3998
00:58:08,150 --> 00:58:08,160
step one. That's like step three after
 

3999
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:09,310
step one. That's like step three after
you know, it's like step one, automate

4000
00:58:09,310 --> 00:58:09,320
you know, it's like step one, automate
 

4001
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:10,670
you know, it's like step one, automate
themselves.

4002
00:58:10,670 --> 00:58:10,680
themselves.
 

4003
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:12,390
themselves.
Step two,

4004
00:58:12,390 --> 00:58:12,400
Step two,
 

4005
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:13,670
Step two,
have this recursive self-improvement to

4006
00:58:13,670 --> 00:58:13,680
have this recursive self-improvement to
 

4007
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:15,830
have this recursive self-improvement to
get to superintelligence. Step three,

4008
00:58:15,830 --> 00:58:15,840
get to superintelligence. Step three,
 

4009
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:17,190
get to superintelligence. Step three,
expand out into the economy and automate

4010
00:58:17,190 --> 00:58:17,200
expand out into the economy and automate
 

4011
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:18,790
expand out into the economy and automate
everything. And so,

4012
00:58:18,790 --> 00:58:18,800
everything. And so,
 

4013
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:20,790
everything. And so,
this is really unfortunate from

4014
00:58:20,790 --> 00:58:20,800
this is really unfortunate from
 

4015
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:22,910
this is really unfortunate from
humanity's perspective, because one

4016
00:58:22,910 --> 00:58:22,920
humanity's perspective, because one
 

4017
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:24,830
humanity's perspective, because one
might have hoped that

4018
00:58:24,830 --> 00:58:24,840
might have hoped that
 

4019
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:26,350
might have hoped that
if there was this broad wave of

4020
00:58:26,350 --> 00:58:26,360
if there was this broad wave of
 

4021
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:27,910
if there was this broad wave of
automation going through the economy,

4022
00:58:27,910 --> 00:58:27,920
automation going through the economy,
 

4023
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:29,710
automation going through the economy,
people would sit up and pay attention

4024
00:58:29,710 --> 00:58:29,720
people would sit up and pay attention
 

4025
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:31,630
people would sit up and pay attention
and think about where all this is headed

4026
00:58:31,630 --> 00:58:31,640
and think about where all this is headed
 

4027
00:58:31,640 --> 00:58:34,510
and think about where all this is headed
and demand good regulations from the

4028
00:58:34,510 --> 00:58:34,520
and demand good regulations from the
 

4029
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:35,710
and demand good regulations from the
government.

4030
00:58:35,710 --> 00:58:35,720
government.
 

4031
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:36,750
government.
But,

4032
00:58:36,750 --> 00:58:36,760
But,
 

4033
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:37,950
But,
that's not actually what the strategy of

4034
00:58:37,950 --> 00:58:37,960
that's not actually what the strategy of
 

4035
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:39,070
that's not actually what the strategy of
the companies are taking. You know,

4036
00:58:39,070 --> 00:58:39,080
the companies are taking. You know,
 

4037
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:39,830
the companies are taking. You know,
they're going to be getting the

4038
00:58:39,830 --> 00:58:39,840
they're going to be getting the
 

4039
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:41,190
they're going to be getting the
superintelligence first and then doing

4040
00:58:41,190 --> 00:58:41,200
superintelligence first and then doing
 

4041
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:42,550
superintelligence first and then doing
the broad wave of automation, which

4042
00:58:42,550 --> 00:58:42,560
the broad wave of automation, which
 

4043
00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:44,270
the broad wave of automation, which
means that by the time they're actually

4044
00:58:44,270 --> 00:58:44,280
means that by the time they're actually
 

4045
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:45,550
means that by the time they're actually
doing all of that,

4046
00:58:45,550 --> 00:58:45,560
doing all of that,
 

4047
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:47,910
doing all of that,
uh well, it's already going to be moving

4048
00:58:47,910 --> 00:58:47,920
uh well, it's already going to be moving
 

4049
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:49,470
uh well, it's already going to be moving
very fast and the AIs will already be

4050
00:58:49,470 --> 00:58:49,480
very fast and the AIs will already be
 

4051
00:58:49,480 --> 00:58:50,270
very fast and the AIs will already be
very powerful.

4052
00:58:50,270 --> 00:58:50,280
very powerful.
 

4053
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:52,630
very powerful.
>> In your 2027 report, so you wrote that

4054
00:58:52,630 --> 00:58:52,640
>> In your 2027 report, so you wrote that
 

4055
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:56,110
>> In your 2027 report, so you wrote that
in 2025, but it is called AI 2027, you

4056
00:58:56,110 --> 00:58:56,120
in 2025, but it is called AI 2027, you
 

4057
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:58,310
in 2025, but it is called AI 2027, you
said that in mid-2025 we'd have the

4058
00:58:58,310 --> 00:58:58,320
said that in mid-2025 we'd have the
 

4059
00:58:58,320 --> 00:58:59,950
said that in mid-2025 we'd have the
autonomous employee, which is sort of

4060
00:58:59,950 --> 00:58:59,960
autonomous employee, which is sort of
 

4061
00:58:59,960 --> 00:59:01,750
autonomous employee, which is sort of
like AI agents taking instructions over

4062
00:59:01,750 --> 00:59:01,760
like AI agents taking instructions over
 

4063
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:04,270
like AI agents taking instructions over
Slack or Teams.

4064
00:59:04,270 --> 00:59:04,280
Slack or Teams.
 

4065
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:06,150
Slack or Teams.
That happened. I've actually got an AI

4066
00:59:06,150 --> 00:59:06,160
That happened. I've actually got an AI
 

4067
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:07,710
That happened. I've actually got an AI
agent in my WhatsApp I can talk to. Of

4068
00:59:07,710 --> 00:59:07,720
agent in my WhatsApp I can talk to. Of
 

4069
00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:09,310
agent in my WhatsApp I can talk to. Of
course, you've got Claude by exploded,

4070
00:59:09,310 --> 00:59:09,320
course, you've got Claude by exploded,
 

4071
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:10,830
course, you've got Claude by exploded,
obviously, around the world. And and

4072
00:59:10,830 --> 00:59:10,840
obviously, around the world. And and
 

4073
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:12,110
obviously, around the world. And and
now, um you know, Claude have talked

4074
00:59:12,110 --> 00:59:12,120
now, um you know, Claude have talked
 

4075
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:14,390
now, um you know, Claude have talked
about uh their new Slack integration.

4076
00:59:14,390 --> 00:59:14,400
about uh their new Slack integration.
 

4077
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:15,510
about uh their new Slack integration.
But, lots of people are using agents

4078
00:59:15,510 --> 00:59:15,520
But, lots of people are using agents
 

4079
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,590
But, lots of people are using agents
now. And that happened, I'd say for us

4080
00:59:17,590 --> 00:59:17,600
now. And that happened, I'd say for us
 

4081
00:59:17,600 --> 00:59:19,310
now. And that happened, I'd say for us
at the We really sort of caught onto it

4082
00:59:19,310 --> 00:59:19,320
at the We really sort of caught onto it
 

4083
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,550
at the We really sort of caught onto it
at the the start of 2026.

4084
00:59:21,550 --> 00:59:21,560
at the the start of 2026.
 

4085
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:24,350
at the the start of 2026.
You also said by 2026 companies begin

4086
00:59:24,350 --> 00:59:24,360
You also said by 2026 companies begin
 

4087
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:25,790
You also said by 2026 companies begin
replacing entire corporate departments

4088
00:59:25,790 --> 00:59:25,800
replacing entire corporate departments
 

4089
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:28,470
replacing entire corporate departments
with AI agent subscriptions. 2027, the

4090
00:59:28,470 --> 00:59:28,480
with AI agent subscriptions. 2027, the
 

4091
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:31,030
with AI agent subscriptions. 2027, the
final job. AI automates the job of the

4092
00:59:31,030 --> 00:59:31,040
final job. AI automates the job of the
 

4093
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:32,830
final job. AI automates the job of the
human AI researchers themselves and

4094
00:59:32,830 --> 00:59:32,840
human AI researchers themselves and
 

4095
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:34,470
human AI researchers themselves and
begins the machine learning research to

4096
00:59:34,470 --> 00:59:34,480
begins the machine learning research to
 

4097
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:35,830
begins the machine learning research to
upgrade and build the next generation of

4098
00:59:35,830 --> 00:59:35,840
upgrade and build the next generation of
 

4099
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:36,670
upgrade and build the next generation of
AIs.

4100
00:59:36,670 --> 00:59:36,680
AIs.
 

4101
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:38,990
AIs.
>> Yeah, yeah. So, again, timelines.

4102
00:59:38,990 --> 00:59:39,000
>> Yeah, yeah. So, again, timelines.
 

4103
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:40,990
>> Yeah, yeah. So, again, timelines.
We are uncertain about how long it will

4104
00:59:40,990 --> 00:59:41,000
We are uncertain about how long it will
 

4105
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:42,870
We are uncertain about how long it will
take to achieve these milestones. In

4106
00:59:42,870 --> 00:59:42,880
take to achieve these milestones. In
 

4107
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:44,790
take to achieve these milestones. In
this scenario, they happen at those

4108
00:59:44,790 --> 00:59:44,800
this scenario, they happen at those
 

4109
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:46,710
this scenario, they happen at those
times, but

4110
00:59:46,710 --> 00:59:46,720
times, but
 

4111
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:47,950
times, but
by the time we had actually published

4112
00:59:47,950 --> 00:59:47,960
by the time we had actually published
 

4113
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:49,510
by the time we had actually published
this scenario, our timelines had shifted

4114
00:59:49,510 --> 00:59:49,520
this scenario, our timelines had shifted
 

4115
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:51,030
this scenario, our timelines had shifted
back a little bit. Specifically, mine

4116
00:59:51,030 --> 00:59:51,040
back a little bit. Specifically, mine
 

4117
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:53,070
back a little bit. Specifically, mine
had. So, like

4118
00:59:53,070 --> 00:59:53,080
had. So, like
 

4119
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:55,150
had. So, like
my 50% mark was 2028.

4120
00:59:55,150 --> 00:59:55,160
my 50% mark was 2028.
 

4121
00:59:55,160 --> 00:59:55,470
my 50% mark was 2028.
>> Mhm.

4122
00:59:55,470 --> 00:59:55,480
>> Mhm.
 

4123
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:56,990
>> Mhm.
>> For that for the full automation of AI

4124
00:59:56,990 --> 00:59:57,000
>> For that for the full automation of AI
 

4125
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,830
>> For that for the full automation of AI
research milestone, not 2027.

4126
00:59:59,830 --> 00:59:59,840
research milestone, not 2027.
 

4127
00:59:59,840 --> 01:00:00,830
research milestone, not 2027.
Uh

4128
01:00:00,830 --> 01:00:00,840
Uh
 

4129
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:02,270
Uh
and then other people on my team had

4130
01:00:02,270 --> 01:00:02,280
and then other people on my team had
 

4131
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:05,390
and then other people on my team had
more like 2030, 2031, things like that.

4132
01:00:05,390 --> 01:00:05,400
more like 2030, 2031, things like that.
 

4133
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:07,590
more like 2030, 2031, things like that.
So, I I I kind of want to like

4134
01:00:07,590 --> 01:00:07,600
So, I I I kind of want to like
 

4135
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:08,630
So, I I I kind of want to like
maybe try to illustrate this with the

4136
01:00:08,630 --> 01:00:08,640
maybe try to illustrate this with the
 

4137
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:09,830
maybe try to illustrate this with the
you know we have like this probability

4138
01:00:09,830 --> 01:00:09,840
you know we have like this probability
 

4139
01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:11,310
you know we have like this probability
distribution. It's like a

4140
01:00:11,310 --> 01:00:11,320
distribution. It's like a
 

4141
01:00:11,320 --> 01:00:13,870
distribution. It's like a
smeared out probability mass. And like

4142
01:00:13,870 --> 01:00:13,880
smeared out probability mass. And like
 

4143
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:16,310
smeared out probability mass. And like
the 50% mark is this particular year,

4144
01:00:16,310 --> 01:00:16,320
the 50% mark is this particular year,
 

4145
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:17,830
the 50% mark is this particular year,
but there's like a lot of possibility

4146
01:00:17,830 --> 01:00:17,840
but there's like a lot of possibility
 

4147
01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:18,790
but there's like a lot of possibility
that it happens

4148
01:00:18,790 --> 01:00:18,800
that it happens
 

4149
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:19,070
that it happens
>> Later.

4150
01:00:19,070 --> 01:00:19,080
>> Later.
 

4151
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:21,510
>> Later.
>> years earlier or years later, right?

4152
01:00:21,510 --> 01:00:21,520
>> years earlier or years later, right?
 

4153
01:00:21,520 --> 01:00:24,590
>> years earlier or years later, right?
>> Got you. What is this AI 2040?

4154
01:00:24,590 --> 01:00:24,600
>> Got you. What is this AI 2040?
 

4155
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:26,710
>> Got you. What is this AI 2040?
>> So, AI 2027 was our best guess

4156
01:00:26,710 --> 01:00:26,720
>> So, AI 2027 was our best guess
 

4157
01:00:26,720 --> 01:00:27,630
>> So, AI 2027 was our best guess
prediction as to how things would

4158
01:00:27,630 --> 01:00:27,640
prediction as to how things would
 

4159
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:28,230
prediction as to how things would
actually go.

4160
01:00:28,230 --> 01:00:28,240
actually go.
 

4161
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:28,910
actually go.
>> Yeah.

4162
01:00:28,910 --> 01:00:28,920
>> Yeah.
 

4163
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:31,670
>> Yeah.
>> AI 2040 plan A is our recommendation for

4164
01:00:31,670 --> 01:00:31,680
>> AI 2040 plan A is our recommendation for
 

4165
01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:34,310
>> AI 2040 plan A is our recommendation for
how things should go. So, we called it

4166
01:00:34,310 --> 01:00:34,320
how things should go. So, we called it
 

4167
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:37,510
how things should go. So, we called it
AI 2040 because in this scenario, uh

4168
01:00:37,510 --> 01:00:37,520
AI 2040 because in this scenario, uh
 

4169
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:39,950
AI 2040 because in this scenario, uh
they build superintelligence in 2040

4170
01:00:39,950 --> 01:00:39,960
they build superintelligence in 2040
 

4171
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:41,310
they build superintelligence in 2040
instead of much sooner because they

4172
01:00:41,310 --> 01:00:41,320
instead of much sooner because they
 

4173
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:42,550
instead of much sooner because they
delay things.

4174
01:00:42,550 --> 01:00:42,560
delay things.
 

4175
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:44,030
delay things.
>> Why do they delay things?

4176
01:00:44,030 --> 01:00:44,040
>> Why do they delay things?
 

4177
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,670
>> Why do they delay things?
>> To manage the risks and make sure that

4178
01:00:46,670 --> 01:00:46,680
>> To manage the risks and make sure that
 

4179
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:48,630
>> To manage the risks and make sure that
power is distributed equitably.

4180
01:00:48,630 --> 01:00:48,640
power is distributed equitably.
 

4181
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:50,790
power is distributed equitably.
They basically like

4182
01:00:50,790 --> 01:00:50,800
They basically like
 

4183
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:52,550
They basically like
regulate AI development so that it still

4184
01:00:52,550 --> 01:00:52,560
regulate AI development so that it still
 

4185
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:54,270
regulate AI development so that it still
continues, but at a slower, more

4186
01:00:54,270 --> 01:00:54,280
continues, but at a slower, more
 

4187
01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:56,830
continues, but at a slower, more
reasonable pace uh in a more transparent

4188
01:00:56,830 --> 01:00:56,840
reasonable pace uh in a more transparent
 

4189
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:57,990
reasonable pace uh in a more transparent
and safe way

4190
01:00:57,990 --> 01:00:58,000
and safe way
 

4191
01:00:58,000 --> 01:00:59,910
and safe way
and spread out over more countries and

4192
01:00:59,910 --> 01:00:59,920
and spread out over more countries and
 

4193
01:00:59,920 --> 01:01:02,350
and spread out over more countries and
companies. And as a result, they get to

4194
01:01:02,350 --> 01:01:02,360
companies. And as a result, they get to
 

4195
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:04,590
companies. And as a result, they get to
superintelligence in 2040 instead of in

4196
01:01:04,590 --> 01:01:04,600
superintelligence in 2040 instead of in
 

4197
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:06,430
superintelligence in 2040 instead of in
say 2030.

4198
01:01:06,430 --> 01:01:06,440
say 2030.
 

4199
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:08,830
say 2030.
And then we call it plan A because

4200
01:01:08,830 --> 01:01:08,840
And then we call it plan A because
 

4201
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:10,150
And then we call it plan A because
well, it's our recommendation. Like

4202
01:01:10,150 --> 01:01:10,160
well, it's our recommendation. Like
 

4203
01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:12,750
well, it's our recommendation. Like
we've we've come up with a plan for

4204
01:01:12,750 --> 01:01:12,760
we've we've come up with a plan for
 

4205
01:01:12,760 --> 01:01:15,550
we've we've come up with a plan for
what government should do. And uh

4206
01:01:15,550 --> 01:01:15,560
what government should do. And uh
 

4207
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:17,150
what government should do. And uh
the scenario is an illustration of what

4208
01:01:17,150 --> 01:01:17,160
the scenario is an illustration of what
 

4209
01:01:17,160 --> 01:01:18,590
the scenario is an illustration of what
it might look like to implement that

4210
01:01:18,590 --> 01:01:18,600
it might look like to implement that
 

4211
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:20,870
it might look like to implement that
plan. In a similar way to how AI 2027 is

4212
01:01:20,870 --> 01:01:20,880
plan. In a similar way to how AI 2027 is
 

4213
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:22,790
plan. In a similar way to how AI 2027 is
kind of an an illustration of what it

4214
01:01:22,790 --> 01:01:22,800
kind of an an illustration of what it
 

4215
01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:24,190
kind of an an illustration of what it
would might look like

4216
01:01:24,190 --> 01:01:24,200
would might look like
 

4217
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:25,310
would might look like
to do with the companies are currently

4218
01:01:25,310 --> 01:01:25,320
to do with the companies are currently
 

4219
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:27,870
to do with the companies are currently
planning to do. If that makes sense.

4220
01:01:27,870 --> 01:01:27,880
planning to do. If that makes sense.
 

4221
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:29,430
planning to do. If that makes sense.
>> And is this wishful thinking or is this

4222
01:01:29,430 --> 01:01:29,440
>> And is this wishful thinking or is this
 

4223
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:30,670
>> And is this wishful thinking or is this
what you think is going to happen?

4224
01:01:30,670 --> 01:01:30,680
what you think is going to happen?
 

4225
01:01:30,680 --> 01:01:32,430
what you think is going to happen?
>> No, it's definitely not what we think is

4226
01:01:32,430 --> 01:01:32,440
>> No, it's definitely not what we think is
 

4227
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:33,190
>> No, it's definitely not what we think is
going to happen.

4228
01:01:33,190 --> 01:01:33,200
going to happen.
 

4229
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:34,070
going to happen.
>> It's not what you think is going to

4230
01:01:34,070 --> 01:01:34,080
>> It's not what you think is going to
 

4231
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:34,390
>> It's not what you think is going to
happen?

4232
01:01:34,390 --> 01:01:34,400
happen?
 

4233
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:35,670
happen?
>> No, no, what we think is going to happen

4234
01:01:35,670 --> 01:01:35,680
>> No, no, what we think is going to happen
 

4235
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:36,830
>> No, no, what we think is going to happen
is still

4236
01:01:36,830 --> 01:01:36,840
is still
 

4237
01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:38,870
is still
something more like this, right? We we

4238
01:01:38,870 --> 01:01:38,880
something more like this, right? We we
 

4239
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:40,630
something more like this, right? We we
don't expect the world to listen to us,

4240
01:01:40,630 --> 01:01:40,640
don't expect the world to listen to us,
 

4241
01:01:40,640 --> 01:01:43,030
don't expect the world to listen to us,
right? This is our recommendation, but

4242
01:01:43,030 --> 01:01:43,040
right? This is our recommendation, but
 

4243
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:44,830
right? This is our recommendation, but
we we we hope that that people do

4244
01:01:44,830 --> 01:01:44,840
we we we hope that that people do
 

4245
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:45,950
we we we hope that that people do
something like this and we think it's

4246
01:01:45,950 --> 01:01:45,960
something like this and we think it's
 

4247
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,430
something like this and we think it's
possible, but it's not our like

4248
01:01:48,430 --> 01:01:48,440
possible, but it's not our like
 

4249
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:49,710
possible, but it's not our like
prediction for what's going to happen by

4250
01:01:49,710 --> 01:01:49,720
prediction for what's going to happen by
 

4251
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:51,190
prediction for what's going to happen by
default, you know.

4252
01:01:51,190 --> 01:01:51,200
default, you know.
 

4253
01:01:51,200 --> 01:01:53,470
default, you know.
>> So, I do want to run through the plans,

4254
01:01:53,470 --> 01:01:53,480
>> So, I do want to run through the plans,
 

4255
01:01:53,480 --> 01:01:55,550
>> So, I do want to run through the plans,
the potential plans, and also plan A,

4256
01:01:55,550 --> 01:01:55,560
the potential plans, and also plan A,
 

4257
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:57,190
the potential plans, and also plan A,
but um just to close off on how things

4258
01:01:57,190 --> 01:01:57,200
but um just to close off on how things
 

4259
01:01:57,200 --> 01:01:58,870
but um just to close off on how things
might look after the year cuz I think I

4260
01:01:58,870 --> 01:01:58,880
might look after the year cuz I think I
 

4261
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:00,230
might look after the year cuz I think I
wanted to touch on robotics, too, and

4262
01:02:00,230 --> 01:02:00,240
wanted to touch on robotics, too, and
 

4263
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:02,230
wanted to touch on robotics, too, and
I've got this graph here which talks

4264
01:02:02,230 --> 01:02:02,240
I've got this graph here which talks
 

4265
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:04,030
I've got this graph here which talks
about share of labor output.

4266
01:02:04,030 --> 01:02:04,040
about share of labor output.
 

4267
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:04,350
about share of labor output.
>> Yes.

4268
01:02:04,350 --> 01:02:04,360
>> Yes.
 

4269
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:04,670
>> Yes.
>> Yeah.

4270
01:02:04,670 --> 01:02:04,680
>> Yeah.
 

4271
01:02:04,680 --> 01:02:06,310
>> Yeah.
>> Um which I found to be quite striking.

4272
01:02:06,310 --> 01:02:06,320
>> Um which I found to be quite striking.
 

4273
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:07,590
>> Um which I found to be quite striking.
I've been sat here wondering as an

4274
01:02:07,590 --> 01:02:07,600
I've been sat here wondering as an
 

4275
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:09,270
I've been sat here wondering as an
employer who employs hundreds and

4276
01:02:09,270 --> 01:02:09,280
employer who employs hundreds and
 

4277
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:10,630
employer who employs hundreds and
hundreds of people

4278
01:02:10,630 --> 01:02:10,640
hundreds of people
 

4279
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:11,790
hundreds of people
when when all this stuff is going to

4280
01:02:11,790 --> 01:02:11,800
when when all this stuff is going to
 

4281
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:13,710
when when all this stuff is going to
happen. And you know, we're still hiring

4282
01:02:13,710 --> 01:02:13,720
happen. And you know, we're still hiring
 

4283
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:15,990
happen. And you know, we're still hiring
more people as things stand. There are

4284
01:02:15,990 --> 01:02:16,000
more people as things stand. There are
 

4285
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:18,590
more people as things stand. There are
some roles where our consideration is

4286
01:02:18,590 --> 01:02:18,600
some roles where our consideration is
 

4287
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:21,030
some roles where our consideration is
changing, shifting considerably.

4288
01:02:21,030 --> 01:02:21,040
changing, shifting considerably.
 

4289
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:22,550
changing, shifting considerably.
And I'd have to say that, you know,

4290
01:02:22,550 --> 01:02:22,560
And I'd have to say that, you know,
 

4291
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:23,750
And I'd have to say that, you know,
we're probably in the phase where our

4292
01:02:23,750 --> 01:02:23,760
we're probably in the phase where our
 

4293
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:25,710
we're probably in the phase where our
teams are AI-powered and they're using

4294
01:02:25,710 --> 01:02:25,720
teams are AI-powered and they're using
 

4295
01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:27,870
teams are AI-powered and they're using
agents to do some of their work now.

4296
01:02:27,870 --> 01:02:27,880
agents to do some of their work now.
 

4297
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:29,110
agents to do some of their work now.
But I'm wondering as an employer like

4298
01:02:29,110 --> 01:02:29,120
But I'm wondering as an employer like
 

4299
01:02:29,120 --> 01:02:30,270
But I'm wondering as an employer like
when is it

4300
01:02:30,270 --> 01:02:30,280
when is it
 

4301
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:31,830
when is it
when does this happen?

4302
01:02:31,830 --> 01:02:31,840
when does this happen?
 

4303
01:02:31,840 --> 01:02:33,630
when does this happen?
>> Yeah, great question. So, if we could

4304
01:02:33,630 --> 01:02:33,640
>> Yeah, great question. So, if we could
 

4305
01:02:33,640 --> 01:02:35,030
>> Yeah, great question. So, if we could
maybe zoom in on this a little bit.

4306
01:02:35,030 --> 01:02:35,040
maybe zoom in on this a little bit.
 

4307
01:02:35,040 --> 01:02:36,310
maybe zoom in on this a little bit.
>> it on the screen.

4308
01:02:36,310 --> 01:02:36,320
>> it on the screen.
 

4309
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:38,310
>> it on the screen.
>> So, this is in the AI 2040 plan A

4310
01:02:38,310 --> 01:02:38,320
>> So, this is in the AI 2040 plan A
 

4311
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:41,190
>> So, this is in the AI 2040 plan A
scenario. And notably in that scenario,

4312
01:02:41,190 --> 01:02:41,200
scenario. And notably in that scenario,
 

4313
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:42,910
scenario. And notably in that scenario,
there's significant regulation

4314
01:02:42,910 --> 01:02:42,920
there's significant regulation
 

4315
01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:45,350
there's significant regulation
introduced in 2029 that slows down the

4316
01:02:45,350 --> 01:02:45,360
introduced in 2029 that slows down the
 

4317
01:02:45,360 --> 01:02:46,910
introduced in 2029 that slows down the
pace of AI development.

4318
01:02:46,910 --> 01:02:46,920
pace of AI development.
 

4319
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:48,430
pace of AI development.
In the scenario, they do that sort of at

4320
01:02:48,430 --> 01:02:48,440
In the scenario, they do that sort of at
 

4321
01:02:48,440 --> 01:02:50,990
In the scenario, they do that sort of at
the last moment. So, in the scenario, if

4322
01:02:50,990 --> 01:02:51,000
the last moment. So, in the scenario, if
 

4323
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:52,710
the last moment. So, in the scenario, if
they hadn't done that, then it was about

4324
01:02:52,710 --> 01:02:52,720
they hadn't done that, then it was about
 

4325
01:02:52,720 --> 01:02:54,750
they hadn't done that, then it was about
to take off similar to how it does in

4326
01:02:54,750 --> 01:02:54,760
to take off similar to how it does in
 

4327
01:02:54,760 --> 01:02:56,190
to take off similar to how it does in
the AI 2027.

4328
01:02:56,190 --> 01:02:56,200
the AI 2027.
 

4329
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:57,830
the AI 2027.
Um but as you can see like in the

4330
01:02:57,830 --> 01:02:57,840
Um but as you can see like in the
 

4331
01:02:57,840 --> 01:02:59,950
Um but as you can see like in the
scenario, there's still

4332
01:02:59,950 --> 01:02:59,960
scenario, there's still
 

4333
01:02:59,960 --> 01:03:02,030
scenario, there's still
a bunch of jobs

4334
01:03:02,030 --> 01:03:02,040
a bunch of jobs
 

4335
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:03,990
a bunch of jobs
at the point that they implement it. And

4336
01:03:03,990 --> 01:03:04,000
at the point that they implement it. And
 

4337
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:04,950
at the point that they implement it. And
this gets back to what I was saying

4338
01:03:04,950 --> 01:03:04,960
this gets back to what I was saying
 

4339
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:06,710
this gets back to what I was saying
earlier is that if you wait until most

4340
01:03:06,710 --> 01:03:06,720
earlier is that if you wait until most
 

4341
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:08,430
earlier is that if you wait until most
people have lost their jobs

4342
01:03:08,430 --> 01:03:08,440
people have lost their jobs
 

4343
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:10,910
people have lost their jobs
to regulate the AI companies, that's

4344
01:03:10,910 --> 01:03:10,920
to regulate the AI companies, that's
 

4345
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:12,950
to regulate the AI companies, that's
already too late because

4346
01:03:12,950 --> 01:03:12,960
already too late because
 

4347
01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:14,310
already too late because
they will probably already have super

4348
01:03:14,310 --> 01:03:14,320
they will probably already have super
 

4349
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:15,990
they will probably already have super
intelligent AI by then because their

4350
01:03:15,990 --> 01:03:16,000
intelligent AI by then because their
 

4351
01:03:16,000 --> 01:03:17,110
intelligent AI by then because their
strategy is to first get super

4352
01:03:17,110 --> 01:03:17,120
strategy is to first get super
 

4353
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:18,670
strategy is to first get super
intelligent AI and then do all that

4354
01:03:18,670 --> 01:03:18,680
intelligent AI and then do all that
 

4355
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:19,030
intelligent AI and then do all that
stuff.

4356
01:03:19,030 --> 01:03:19,040
stuff.
 

4357
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:20,510
stuff.
>> think you say that it would collapse the

4358
01:03:20,510 --> 01:03:20,520
>> think you say that it would collapse the
 

4359
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:21,990
>> think you say that it would collapse the
economy and cause even more harm to

4360
01:03:21,990 --> 01:03:22,000
economy and cause even more harm to
 

4361
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:23,750
economy and cause even more harm to
suddenly regulate something that all of

4362
01:03:23,750 --> 01:03:23,760
suddenly regulate something that all of
 

4363
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:24,910
suddenly regulate something that all of
us and all of our lives were then at

4364
01:03:24,910 --> 01:03:24,920
us and all of our lives were then at
 

4365
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:26,350
us and all of our lives were then at
that point relying on.

4366
01:03:26,350 --> 01:03:26,360
that point relying on.
 

4367
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:27,870
that point relying on.
>> Oh, but it's a risk well worth taking. I

4368
01:03:27,870 --> 01:03:27,880
>> Oh, but it's a risk well worth taking. I
 

4369
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:30,150
>> Oh, but it's a risk well worth taking. I
mean, we It's true that right now a lot

4370
01:03:30,150 --> 01:03:30,160
mean, we It's true that right now a lot
 

4371
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:31,510
mean, we It's true that right now a lot
of people use AI for a lot of things,

4372
01:03:31,510 --> 01:03:31,520
of people use AI for a lot of things,
 

4373
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:34,470
of people use AI for a lot of things,
but like if we could somehow slow or

4374
01:03:34,470 --> 01:03:34,480
but like if we could somehow slow or
 

4375
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:36,270
but like if we could somehow slow or
halt AI development now to set up a

4376
01:03:36,270 --> 01:03:36,280
halt AI development now to set up a
 

4377
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:37,910
halt AI development now to set up a
better way to do it, that would be well

4378
01:03:37,910 --> 01:03:37,920
better way to do it, that would be well
 

4379
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:39,750
better way to do it, that would be well
worth it. Um even though there would be

4380
01:03:39,750 --> 01:03:39,760
worth it. Um even though there would be
 

4381
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:40,990
worth it. Um even though there would be
significant costs.

4382
01:03:40,990 --> 01:03:41,000
significant costs.
 

4383
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:42,870
significant costs.
>> But you can't over here, right? Can you?

4384
01:03:42,870 --> 01:03:42,880
>> But you can't over here, right? Can you?
 

4385
01:03:42,880 --> 01:03:44,950
>> But you can't over here, right? Can you?
At this point where AI and robotics are

4386
01:03:44,950 --> 01:03:44,960
At this point where AI and robotics are
 

4387
01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:46,550
At this point where AI and robotics are
doing most of the labor output.

4388
01:03:46,550 --> 01:03:46,560
doing most of the labor output.
 

4389
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:47,870
doing most of the labor output.
>> That's right. But in but in but in in

4390
01:03:47,870 --> 01:03:47,880
>> That's right. But in but in but in in
 

4391
01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:49,950
>> That's right. But in but in but in in
this scenario, in the AI 2040 Plan A

4392
01:03:49,950 --> 01:03:49,960
this scenario, in the AI 2040 Plan A
 

4393
01:03:49,960 --> 01:03:51,670
this scenario, in the AI 2040 Plan A
scenario, they put in the regulations in

4394
01:03:51,670 --> 01:03:51,680
scenario, they put in the regulations in
 

4395
01:03:51,680 --> 01:03:52,950
scenario, they put in the regulations in
2029.

4396
01:03:52,950 --> 01:03:52,960
2029.
 

4397
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:54,350
2029.
And then they slowly and carefully

4398
01:03:54,350 --> 01:03:54,360
And then they slowly and carefully
 

4399
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:56,070
And then they slowly and carefully
develop AI

4400
01:03:56,070 --> 01:03:56,080
develop AI
 

4401
01:03:56,080 --> 01:03:58,070
develop AI
in a way that avoids all the problems,

4402
01:03:58,070 --> 01:03:58,080
in a way that avoids all the problems,
 

4403
01:03:58,080 --> 01:03:59,790
in a way that avoids all the problems,
which we can get into in a little bit.

4404
01:03:59,790 --> 01:03:59,800
which we can get into in a little bit.
 

4405
01:03:59,800 --> 01:04:01,310
which we can get into in a little bit.
And so eventually, yes, eventually the

4406
01:04:01,310 --> 01:04:01,320
And so eventually, yes, eventually the
 

4407
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:03,630
And so eventually, yes, eventually the
AIs take the jobs. Eventually

4408
01:04:03,630 --> 01:04:03,640
AIs take the jobs. Eventually
 

4409
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:05,030
AIs take the jobs. Eventually
basically the whole economy is run by

4410
01:04:05,030 --> 01:04:05,040
basically the whole economy is run by
 

4411
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:07,030
basically the whole economy is run by
AIs and robots, but it it happens

4412
01:04:07,030 --> 01:04:07,040
AIs and robots, but it it happens
 

4413
01:04:07,040 --> 01:04:09,030
AIs and robots, but it it happens
gradually over the course of

4414
01:04:09,030 --> 01:04:09,040
gradually over the course of
 

4415
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:11,430
gradually over the course of
the 2030s instead of happening in this

4416
01:04:11,430 --> 01:04:11,440
the 2030s instead of happening in this
 

4417
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:13,790
the 2030s instead of happening in this
sort of crazy shock,

4418
01:04:13,790 --> 01:04:13,800
sort of crazy shock,
 

4419
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:15,310
sort of crazy shock,
you know, a year later.

4420
01:04:15,310 --> 01:04:15,320
you know, a year later.
 

4421
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:17,750
you know, a year later.
Right? Because in this scenario, they

4422
01:04:17,750 --> 01:04:17,760
Right? Because in this scenario, they
 

4423
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:19,510
Right? Because in this scenario, they
don't let the companies

4424
01:04:19,510 --> 01:04:19,520
don't let the companies
 

4425
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:21,310
don't let the companies
recursively self-improve and get to

4426
01:04:21,310 --> 01:04:21,320
recursively self-improve and get to
 

4427
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:23,230
recursively self-improve and get to
super intelligence as fast as possible.

4428
01:04:23,230 --> 01:04:23,240
super intelligence as fast as possible.
 

4429
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:25,110
super intelligence as fast as possible.
Instead, they regulate AI development so

4430
01:04:25,110 --> 01:04:25,120
Instead, they regulate AI development so
 

4431
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:27,230
Instead, they regulate AI development so
that the core capabilities of the AIs

4432
01:04:27,230 --> 01:04:27,240
that the core capabilities of the AIs
 

4433
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:29,830
that the core capabilities of the AIs
are improving at a more reasonable pace

4434
01:04:29,830 --> 01:04:29,840
are improving at a more reasonable pace
 

4435
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:32,230
are improving at a more reasonable pace
and also in a more transparent way so

4436
01:04:32,230 --> 01:04:32,240
and also in a more transparent way so
 

4437
01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:34,470
and also in a more transparent way so
that the scientific community can see

4438
01:04:34,470 --> 01:04:34,480
that the scientific community can see
 

4439
01:04:34,480 --> 01:04:36,550
that the scientific community can see
what's going on and help make it safe.

4440
01:04:36,550 --> 01:04:36,560
what's going on and help make it safe.
 

4441
01:04:36,560 --> 01:04:37,710
what's going on and help make it safe.
>> But it's

4442
01:04:37,710 --> 01:04:37,720
>> But it's
 

4443
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:39,390
>> But it's
I guess I noticed here that in both your

4444
01:04:39,390 --> 01:04:39,400
I guess I noticed here that in both your
 

4445
01:04:39,400 --> 01:04:42,550
I guess I noticed here that in both your
scenarios, eventually AI and robotics do

4446
01:04:42,550 --> 01:04:42,560
scenarios, eventually AI and robotics do
 

4447
01:04:42,560 --> 01:04:43,510
scenarios, eventually AI and robotics do
pretty much all the jobs.

4448
01:04:43,510 --> 01:04:43,520
pretty much all the jobs.
 

4449
01:04:43,520 --> 01:04:44,830
pretty much all the jobs.
>> Yes.

4450
01:04:44,830 --> 01:04:44,840
>> Yes.
 

4451
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:46,510
>> Yes.
>> So you kind of side there with Elon when

4452
01:04:46,510 --> 01:04:46,520
>> So you kind of side there with Elon when
 

4453
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:50,070
>> So you kind of side there with Elon when
Elon says that working will be a choice.

4454
01:04:50,070 --> 01:04:50,080
Elon says that working will be a choice.
 

4455
01:04:50,080 --> 01:04:53,030
Elon says that working will be a choice.
>> Uh

4456
01:04:53,030 --> 01:04:53,040

 

4457
01:04:53,040 --> 01:04:53,990

>> Because I mean we're going to have to

4458
01:04:53,990 --> 01:04:54,000
>> Because I mean we're going to have to
 

4459
01:04:54,000 --> 01:04:55,670
>> Because I mean we're going to have to
>> I mean, if [laughter] it by definition

4460
01:04:55,670 --> 01:04:55,680
>> I mean, if [laughter] it by definition
 

4461
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:57,670
>> I mean, if [laughter] it by definition
if it can do all the things, then

4462
01:04:57,670 --> 01:04:57,680
if it can do all the things, then
 

4463
01:04:57,680 --> 01:05:00,270
if it can do all the things, then
it can do all the things. I think that

4464
01:05:00,270 --> 01:05:00,280
it can do all the things. I think that
 

4465
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:01,430
it can do all the things. I think that
there's a question of like should we

4466
01:05:01,430 --> 01:05:01,440
there's a question of like should we
 

4467
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:02,830
there's a question of like should we
allow there to be AIs that can do all

4468
01:05:02,830 --> 01:05:02,840
allow there to be AIs that can do all
 

4469
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:04,990
allow there to be AIs that can do all
the things, right? Some people think

4470
01:05:04,990 --> 01:05:05,000
the things, right? Some people think
 

4471
01:05:05,000 --> 01:05:07,270
the things, right? Some people think
that the answer is no and we should just

4472
01:05:07,270 --> 01:05:07,280
that the answer is no and we should just
 

4473
01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:09,550
that the answer is no and we should just
shut it all down and prevent these types

4474
01:05:09,550 --> 01:05:09,560
shut it all down and prevent these types
 

4475
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:10,910
shut it all down and prevent these types
of AIs from being created in the first

4476
01:05:10,910 --> 01:05:10,920
of AIs from being created in the first
 

4477
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:13,310
of AIs from being created in the first
place. And we're actually kind of

4478
01:05:13,310 --> 01:05:13,320
place. And we're actually kind of
 

4479
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:15,470
place. And we're actually kind of
sympathetic to that. We we have our

4480
01:05:15,470 --> 01:05:15,480
sympathetic to that. We we have our
 

4481
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:16,910
sympathetic to that. We we have our
Should we bring out the plans diagram?

4482
01:05:16,910 --> 01:05:16,920
Should we bring out the plans diagram?
 

4483
01:05:16,920 --> 01:05:18,710
Should we bring out the plans diagram?
>> Yeah.

4484
01:05:18,710 --> 01:05:18,720
>> Yeah.
 

4485
01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:21,750
>> Yeah.
>> Thanks. Yeah. So,

4486
01:05:21,750 --> 01:05:21,760
>> Thanks. Yeah. So,
 

4487
01:05:21,760 --> 01:05:24,470
>> Thanks. Yeah. So,
our scenario is called AI 2040 plan A.

4488
01:05:24,470 --> 01:05:24,480
our scenario is called AI 2040 plan A.
 

4489
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:25,630
our scenario is called AI 2040 plan A.
It's a scenario in which they slow down

4490
01:05:25,630 --> 01:05:25,640
It's a scenario in which they slow down
 

4491
01:05:25,640 --> 01:05:27,030
It's a scenario in which they slow down
AI development to make a super

4492
01:05:27,030 --> 01:05:27,040
AI development to make a super
 

4493
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:28,430
AI development to make a super
intelligence happen in 2040 instead of

4494
01:05:28,430 --> 01:05:28,440
intelligence happen in 2040 instead of
 

4495
01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:30,070
intelligence happen in 2040 instead of
earlier. And plan A is our

4496
01:05:30,070 --> 01:05:30,080
earlier. And plan A is our
 

4497
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:31,150
earlier. And plan A is our
recommendation. So, this is sort of

4498
01:05:31,150 --> 01:05:31,160
recommendation. So, this is sort of
 

4499
01:05:31,160 --> 01:05:33,110
recommendation. So, this is sort of
illustrating our recommendation. But,

4500
01:05:33,110 --> 01:05:33,120
illustrating our recommendation. But,
 

4501
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:34,870
illustrating our recommendation. But,
for comparison, we made like mini

4502
01:05:34,870 --> 01:05:34,880
for comparison, we made like mini
 

4503
01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:36,830
for comparison, we made like mini
scenarios illustrating different

4504
01:05:36,830 --> 01:05:36,840
scenarios illustrating different
 

4505
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:39,070
scenarios illustrating different
alternative plans, which we call plan S,

4506
01:05:39,070 --> 01:05:39,080
alternative plans, which we call plan S,
 

4507
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:41,910
alternative plans, which we call plan S,
plan B, plan C, and plan D.

4508
01:05:41,910 --> 01:05:41,920
plan B, plan C, and plan D.
 

4509
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:44,110
plan B, plan C, and plan D.
Plan D is basically

4510
01:05:44,110 --> 01:05:44,120
Plan D is basically
 

4511
01:05:44,120 --> 01:05:45,950
Plan D is basically
the same thing that happens in AI 2027.

4512
01:05:45,950 --> 01:05:45,960
the same thing that happens in AI 2027.
 

4513
01:05:45,960 --> 01:05:47,710
the same thing that happens in AI 2027.
Like, the race continues. There's very

4514
01:05:47,710 --> 01:05:47,720
Like, the race continues. There's very
 

4515
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:49,150
Like, the race continues. There's very
little regulation.

4516
01:05:49,150 --> 01:05:49,160
little regulation.
 

4517
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:51,430
little regulation.
Um you can read about that in AI 2027.

4518
01:05:51,430 --> 01:05:51,440
Um you can read about that in AI 2027.
 

4519
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:54,030
Um you can read about that in AI 2027.
Plan C also very similar to what happens

4520
01:05:54,030 --> 01:05:54,040
Plan C also very similar to what happens
 

4521
01:05:54,040 --> 01:05:55,790
Plan C also very similar to what happens
in the slow down ending of AI 2027 where

4522
01:05:55,790 --> 01:05:55,800
in the slow down ending of AI 2027 where
 

4523
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:57,270
in the slow down ending of AI 2027 where
they solve the alignment problems. So,

4524
01:05:57,270 --> 01:05:57,280
they solve the alignment problems. So,
 

4525
01:05:57,280 --> 01:05:58,830
they solve the alignment problems. So,
in that ending,

4526
01:05:58,830 --> 01:05:58,840
in that ending,
 

4527
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:01,350
in that ending,
they like slow down a little bit,

4528
01:06:01,350 --> 01:06:01,360
they like slow down a little bit,
 

4529
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:03,350
they like slow down a little bit,
pivot more resources to AI alignment and

4530
01:06:03,350 --> 01:06:03,360
pivot more resources to AI alignment and
 

4531
01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:05,270
pivot more resources to AI alignment and
AI safety research,

4532
01:06:05,270 --> 01:06:05,280
AI safety research,
 

4533
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:07,070
AI safety research,
get lucky and succeed, and now they have

4534
01:06:07,070 --> 01:06:07,080
get lucky and succeed, and now they have
 

4535
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:08,390
get lucky and succeed, and now they have
aligned AIs,

4536
01:06:08,390 --> 01:06:08,400
aligned AIs,
 

4537
01:06:08,400 --> 01:06:11,270
aligned AIs,
and then they speed up again and take

4538
01:06:11,270 --> 01:06:11,280
and then they speed up again and take
 

4539
01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:12,510
and then they speed up again and take
all the jobs and beat China and all

4540
01:06:12,510 --> 01:06:12,520
all the jobs and beat China and all
 

4541
01:06:12,520 --> 01:06:13,550
all the jobs and beat China and all
those things.

4542
01:06:13,550 --> 01:06:13,560
those things.
 

4543
01:06:13,560 --> 01:06:16,550
those things.
Plan B is

4544
01:06:16,550 --> 01:06:16,560
Plan B is
 

4545
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:20,070
Plan B is
it's kind of like plan C in that

4546
01:06:20,070 --> 01:06:20,080
it's kind of like plan C in that
 

4547
01:06:20,080 --> 01:06:21,030
it's kind of like plan C in that
well,

4548
01:06:21,030 --> 01:06:21,040
well,
 

4549
01:06:21,040 --> 01:06:23,350
well,
basically in plan B, you're

4550
01:06:23,350 --> 01:06:23,360
basically in plan B, you're
 

4551
01:06:23,360 --> 01:06:25,030
basically in plan B, you're
uh being more aggressive towards China

4552
01:06:25,030 --> 01:06:25,040
uh being more aggressive towards China
 

4553
01:06:25,040 --> 01:06:26,230
uh being more aggressive towards China
and you're like

4554
01:06:26,230 --> 01:06:26,240
and you're like
 

4555
01:06:26,240 --> 01:06:28,190
and you're like
taking actions to sabotage or cyber

4556
01:06:28,190 --> 01:06:28,200
taking actions to sabotage or cyber
 

4557
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:30,350
taking actions to sabotage or cyber
attack them to like keep them behind so

4558
01:06:30,350 --> 01:06:30,360
attack them to like keep them behind so
 

4559
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:32,670
attack them to like keep them behind so
that you have more breathing room to to

4560
01:06:32,670 --> 01:06:32,680
that you have more breathing room to to
 

4561
01:06:32,680 --> 01:06:34,430
that you have more breathing room to to
solve the alignment problems yourself.

4562
01:06:34,430 --> 01:06:34,440
solve the alignment problems yourself.
 

4563
01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:37,950
solve the alignment problems yourself.
Plan A is our recommendation. It's uh

4564
01:06:37,950 --> 01:06:37,960
Plan A is our recommendation. It's uh
 

4565
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:39,190
Plan A is our recommendation. It's uh
domestic regulation and then an

4566
01:06:39,190 --> 01:06:39,200
domestic regulation and then an
 

4567
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:40,550
domestic regulation and then an
international deal

4568
01:06:40,550 --> 01:06:40,560
international deal
 

4569
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:42,430
international deal
to continue building AI, but in a much

4570
01:06:42,430 --> 01:06:42,440
to continue building AI, but in a much
 

4571
01:06:42,440 --> 01:06:43,910
to continue building AI, but in a much
better way.

4572
01:06:43,910 --> 01:06:43,920
better way.
 

4573
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:46,390
better way.
Plan S is shut it all down.

4574
01:06:46,390 --> 01:06:46,400
Plan S is shut it all down.
 

4575
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:48,830
Plan S is shut it all down.
If you want to have a future where

4576
01:06:48,830 --> 01:06:48,840
If you want to have a future where
 

4577
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:50,550
If you want to have a future where
there aren't AIs running around that can

4578
01:06:50,550 --> 01:06:50,560
there aren't AIs running around that can
 

4579
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:52,310
there aren't AIs running around that can
do everything better and faster than

4580
01:06:52,310 --> 01:06:52,320
do everything better and faster than
 

4581
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:54,190
do everything better and faster than
humans, you kind of want something like

4582
01:06:54,190 --> 01:06:54,200
humans, you kind of want something like
 

4583
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:56,910
humans, you kind of want something like
plan S. What What do you want?

4584
01:06:56,910 --> 01:06:56,920
plan S. What What do you want?
 

4585
01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:58,870
plan S. What What do you want?
Plan A is our recommendation.

4586
01:06:58,870 --> 01:06:58,880
Plan A is our recommendation.
 

4587
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:00,910
Plan A is our recommendation.
I think that I'm sympathetic to plan S,

4588
01:07:00,910 --> 01:07:00,920
I think that I'm sympathetic to plan S,
 

4589
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:03,510
I think that I'm sympathetic to plan S,
but for reasons we explained, we

4590
01:07:03,510 --> 01:07:03,520
but for reasons we explained, we
 

4591
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:04,910
but for reasons we explained, we
recommend plan A instead.

4592
01:07:04,910 --> 01:07:04,920
recommend plan A instead.
 

4593
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:06,630
recommend plan A instead.
>> And And do you think is most probable?

4594
01:07:06,630 --> 01:07:06,640
>> And And do you think is most probable?
 

4595
01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:07,390
>> And And do you think is most probable?
If you're being honest?

4596
01:07:07,390 --> 01:07:07,400
If you're being honest?
 

4597
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:08,390
If you're being honest?
>> Plan D.

4598
01:07:08,390 --> 01:07:08,400
>> Plan D.
 

4599
01:07:08,400 --> 01:07:09,550
>> Plan D.
>> Which is that they just

4600
01:07:09,550 --> 01:07:09,560
>> Which is that they just
 

4601
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:11,150
>> Which is that they just
>> yeah, 24/7 type of thing where they keep

4602
01:07:11,150 --> 01:07:11,160
>> yeah, 24/7 type of thing where they keep
 

4603
01:07:11,160 --> 01:07:12,750
>> yeah, 24/7 type of thing where they keep
racing. They don't really slow down

4604
01:07:12,750 --> 01:07:12,760
racing. They don't really slow down
 

4605
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:13,990
racing. They don't really slow down
significantly.

4606
01:07:13,990 --> 01:07:14,000
significantly.
 

4607
01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:14,990
significantly.
Um

4608
01:07:14,990 --> 01:07:15,000
Um
 

4609
01:07:15,000 --> 01:07:16,670
Um
and uh

4610
01:07:16,670 --> 01:07:16,680
and uh
 

4611
01:07:16,680 --> 01:07:18,430
and uh
things happen extremely fast.

4612
01:07:18,430 --> 01:07:18,440
things happen extremely fast.
 

4613
01:07:18,440 --> 01:07:19,630
things happen extremely fast.
The diagram sort of explains like

4614
01:07:19,630 --> 01:07:19,640
The diagram sort of explains like
 

4615
01:07:19,640 --> 01:07:21,230
The diagram sort of explains like
roughly the reasoning behind this, too.

4616
01:07:21,230 --> 01:07:21,240
roughly the reasoning behind this, too.
 

4617
01:07:21,240 --> 01:07:22,950
roughly the reasoning behind this, too.
So, like there's this high-level thing

4618
01:07:22,950 --> 01:07:22,960
So, like there's this high-level thing
 

4619
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:24,110
So, like there's this high-level thing
of like

4620
01:07:24,110 --> 01:07:24,120
of like
 

4621
01:07:24,120 --> 01:07:26,190
of like
do you want to keep racing

4622
01:07:26,190 --> 01:07:26,200
do you want to keep racing
 

4623
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:27,510
do you want to keep racing
as fast as possible to make the AI

4624
01:07:27,510 --> 01:07:27,520
as fast as possible to make the AI
 

4625
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:29,150
as fast as possible to make the AI
smarter and smarter, to put them in

4626
01:07:29,150 --> 01:07:29,160
smarter and smarter, to put them in
 

4627
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:30,750
smarter and smarter, to put them in
charge of more things so that we can

4628
01:07:30,750 --> 01:07:30,760
charge of more things so that we can
 

4629
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:31,950
charge of more things so that we can
beat China?

4630
01:07:31,950 --> 01:07:31,960
beat China?
 

4631
01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:32,830
beat China?
You know,

4632
01:07:32,830 --> 01:07:32,840
You know,
 

4633
01:07:32,840 --> 01:07:35,150
You know,
if you're happy with that, then

4634
01:07:35,150 --> 01:07:35,160
if you're happy with that, then
 

4635
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:36,870
if you're happy with that, then
you get down and it says variation of

4636
01:07:36,870 --> 01:07:36,880
you get down and it says variation of
 

4637
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:37,950
you get down and it says variation of
happens here.

4638
01:07:37,950 --> 01:07:37,960
happens here.
 

4639
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:41,510
happens here.
If you are worried about that, well

4640
01:07:41,510 --> 01:07:41,520
If you are worried about that, well
 

4641
01:07:41,520 --> 01:07:43,150
If you are worried about that, well
you get to something like this.

4642
01:07:43,150 --> 01:07:43,160
you get to something like this.
 

4643
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:44,350
you get to something like this.
There's more different options besides

4644
01:07:44,350 --> 01:07:44,360
There's more different options besides
 

4645
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:46,350
There's more different options besides
these, but this is kind of like the ones

4646
01:07:46,350 --> 01:07:46,360
these, but this is kind of like the ones
 

4647
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:50,150
these, but this is kind of like the ones
that we could compress onto a screen.

4648
01:07:50,150 --> 01:07:50,160
that we could compress onto a screen.
 

4649
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:51,150
that we could compress onto a screen.
>> Do you have children?

4650
01:07:51,150 --> 01:07:51,160
>> Do you have children?
 

4651
01:07:51,160 --> 01:07:55,510
>> Do you have children?
>> Yeah, I have two children.

4652
01:07:55,510 --> 01:07:55,520

 

4653
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:56,870

It's kind of sad.

4654
01:07:56,870 --> 01:07:56,880
It's kind of sad.
 

4655
01:07:56,880 --> 01:07:58,870
It's kind of sad.
Like

4656
01:07:58,870 --> 01:07:58,880
Like
 

4657
01:07:58,880 --> 01:07:59,830
Like
I think that one way or another this

4658
01:07:59,830 --> 01:07:59,840
I think that one way or another this
 

4659
01:07:59,840 --> 01:08:01,070
I think that one way or another this
will probably all be over by the time

4660
01:08:01,070 --> 01:08:01,080
will probably all be over by the time
 

4661
01:08:01,080 --> 01:08:02,750
will probably all be over by the time
they're old enough to

4662
01:08:02,750 --> 01:08:02,760
they're old enough to
 

4663
01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:05,030
they're old enough to
join the workforce.

4664
01:08:05,030 --> 01:08:05,040
join the workforce.
 

4665
01:08:05,040 --> 01:08:05,830
join the workforce.
So, I don't think they'll ever join the

4666
01:08:05,830 --> 01:08:05,840
So, I don't think they'll ever join the
 

4667
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:07,550
So, I don't think they'll ever join the
workforce.

4668
01:08:07,550 --> 01:08:07,560
workforce.
 

4669
01:08:07,560 --> 01:08:08,870
workforce.
>> When you say this will be all over by

4670
01:08:08,870 --> 01:08:08,880
>> When you say this will be all over by
 

4671
01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:09,950
>> When you say this will be all over by
the time they join the What do you mean

4672
01:08:09,950 --> 01:08:09,960
the time they join the What do you mean
 

4673
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:13,470
the time they join the What do you mean
by this will be all over?

4674
01:08:13,470 --> 01:08:13,480

 

4675
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:15,910

>> So, these milestones that I described,

4676
01:08:15,910 --> 01:08:15,920
>> So, these milestones that I described,
 

4677
01:08:15,920 --> 01:08:17,390
>> So, these milestones that I described,
like AIs automating the AI research, AIs

4678
01:08:17,390 --> 01:08:17,400
like AIs automating the AI research, AIs
 

4679
01:08:17,400 --> 01:08:20,749
like AIs automating the AI research, AIs
getting super intelligent. Um

4680
01:08:20,749 --> 01:08:20,759
getting super intelligent. Um
 

4681
01:08:20,759 --> 01:08:23,230
getting super intelligent. Um
AIs then exploding onto the economy,

4682
01:08:23,230 --> 01:08:23,240
AIs then exploding onto the economy,
 

4683
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:24,749
AIs then exploding onto the economy,
taking the jobs, building robot

4684
01:08:24,749 --> 01:08:24,759
taking the jobs, building robot
 

4685
01:08:24,759 --> 01:08:25,829
taking the jobs, building robot
factories to build more robots to build

4686
01:08:25,829 --> 01:08:25,839
factories to build more robots to build
 

4687
01:08:25,839 --> 01:08:27,030
factories to build more robots to build
more factories,

4688
01:08:27,030 --> 01:08:27,040
more factories,
 

4689
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:29,590
more factories,
etc. GDP starting to

4690
01:08:29,590 --> 01:08:29,600
etc. GDP starting to
 

4691
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:30,829
etc. GDP starting to
go vertical.

4692
01:08:30,829 --> 01:08:30,839
go vertical.
 

4693
01:08:30,839 --> 01:08:32,190
go vertical.
That sort of thing is what I mean. Like

4694
01:08:32,190 --> 01:08:32,200
That sort of thing is what I mean. Like
 

4695
01:08:32,200 --> 01:08:34,190
That sort of thing is what I mean. Like
all of those events transpiring.

4696
01:08:34,190 --> 01:08:34,200
all of those events transpiring.
 

4697
01:08:34,200 --> 01:08:35,749
all of those events transpiring.
Maybe there's like you know, 10, 20%

4698
01:08:35,749 --> 01:08:35,759
Maybe there's like you know, 10, 20%
 

4699
01:08:35,759 --> 01:08:37,630
Maybe there's like you know, 10, 20%
chance or something that

4700
01:08:37,630 --> 01:08:37,640
chance or something that
 

4701
01:08:37,640 --> 01:08:38,789
chance or something that
hits the wall

4702
01:08:38,789 --> 01:08:38,799
hits the wall
 

4703
01:08:38,799 --> 01:08:41,150
hits the wall
and and none of this comes to pass even

4704
01:08:41,150 --> 01:08:41,160
and and none of this comes to pass even
 

4705
01:08:41,160 --> 01:08:43,590
and and none of this comes to pass even
if you don't do anything.

4706
01:08:43,590 --> 01:08:43,600
if you don't do anything.
 

4707
01:08:43,600 --> 01:08:45,150
if you don't do anything.
>> How old is your oldest?

4708
01:08:45,150 --> 01:08:45,160
>> How old is your oldest?
 

4709
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:45,710
>> How old is your oldest?
>> Six.

4710
01:08:45,710 --> 01:08:45,720
>> Six.
 

4711
01:08:45,720 --> 01:08:46,829
>> Six.
>> Six.

4712
01:08:46,829 --> 01:08:46,839
>> Six.
 

4713
01:08:46,839 --> 01:08:47,710
>> Six.
Boy or girl?

4714
01:08:47,710 --> 01:08:47,720
Boy or girl?
 

4715
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:48,190
Boy or girl?
>> Girl.

4716
01:08:48,190 --> 01:08:48,200
>> Girl.
 

4717
01:08:48,200 --> 01:08:49,670
>> Girl.
>> Girl. So, your daughter comes to you and

4718
01:08:49,670 --> 01:08:49,680
>> Girl. So, your daughter comes to you and
 

4719
01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:51,550
>> Girl. So, your daughter comes to you and
says, "Dad, what should I um what should

4720
01:08:51,550 --> 01:08:51,560
says, "Dad, what should I um what should
 

4721
01:08:51,560 --> 01:08:52,950
says, "Dad, what should I um what should
I study in school?"

4722
01:08:52,950 --> 01:08:52,960
I study in school?"
 

4723
01:08:52,960 --> 01:08:55,309
I study in school?"
>> I mean, again, like if these radical

4724
01:08:55,309 --> 01:08:55,319
>> I mean, again, like if these radical
 

4725
01:08:55,319 --> 01:08:57,870
>> I mean, again, like if these radical
transformations happen, then

4726
01:08:57,870 --> 01:08:57,880
transformations happen, then
 

4727
01:08:57,880 --> 01:08:58,870
transformations happen, then
the world will just look completely

4728
01:08:58,870 --> 01:08:58,880
the world will just look completely
 

4729
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:00,309
the world will just look completely
different and

4730
01:09:00,309 --> 01:09:00,319
different and
 

4731
01:09:00,319 --> 01:09:01,710
different and
what sort of jobs you set yourself up

4732
01:09:01,710 --> 01:09:01,720
what sort of jobs you set yourself up
 

4733
01:09:01,720 --> 01:09:03,309
what sort of jobs you set yourself up
for basically, won't matter that much,

4734
01:09:03,309 --> 01:09:03,319
for basically, won't matter that much,
 

4735
01:09:03,319 --> 01:09:06,550
for basically, won't matter that much,
probably. I would say um that the thing

4736
01:09:06,550 --> 01:09:06,560
probably. I would say um that the thing
 

4737
01:09:06,560 --> 01:09:08,030
probably. I would say um that the thing
to do is

4738
01:09:08,030 --> 01:09:08,040
to do is
 

4739
01:09:08,040 --> 01:09:09,309
to do is
well, A, try to make it actually go

4740
01:09:09,309 --> 01:09:09,319
well, A, try to make it actually go
 

4741
01:09:09,319 --> 01:09:10,710
well, A, try to make it actually go
well. Like, if you can exert any

4742
01:09:10,710 --> 01:09:10,720
well. Like, if you can exert any
 

4743
01:09:10,720 --> 01:09:12,710
well. Like, if you can exert any
influence at all on history and how this

4744
01:09:12,710 --> 01:09:12,720
influence at all on history and how this
 

4745
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:14,070
influence at all on history and how this
all develops, you should be trying very

4746
01:09:14,070 --> 01:09:14,080
all develops, you should be trying very
 

4747
01:09:14,080 --> 01:09:16,309
all develops, you should be trying very
hard to steer the future in better

4748
01:09:16,309 --> 01:09:16,319
hard to steer the future in better
 

4749
01:09:16,319 --> 01:09:17,550
hard to steer the future in better
directions.

4750
01:09:17,550 --> 01:09:17,560
directions.
 

4751
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:18,789
directions.
And then separately from that, on a

4752
01:09:18,789 --> 01:09:18,799
And then separately from that, on a
 

4753
01:09:18,799 --> 01:09:21,390
And then separately from that, on a
personal level, you should focus on

4754
01:09:21,390 --> 01:09:21,400
personal level, you should focus on
 

4755
01:09:21,400 --> 01:09:23,430
personal level, you should focus on
well,

4756
01:09:23,430 --> 01:09:23,440
well,
 

4757
01:09:23,440 --> 01:09:25,430
well,
being a good person and doing things

4758
01:09:25,430 --> 01:09:25,440
being a good person and doing things
 

4759
01:09:25,440 --> 01:09:26,550
being a good person and doing things
that are sort of good in their for their

4760
01:09:26,550 --> 01:09:26,560
that are sort of good in their for their
 

4761
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:28,030
that are sort of good in their for their
own sake, rather than good because

4762
01:09:28,030 --> 01:09:28,040
own sake, rather than good because
 

4763
01:09:28,040 --> 01:09:30,030
own sake, rather than good because
they'll set you up for later employment

4764
01:09:30,030 --> 01:09:30,040
they'll set you up for later employment
 

4765
01:09:30,040 --> 01:09:31,269
they'll set you up for later employment
because that later employment is going

4766
01:09:31,269 --> 01:09:31,279
because that later employment is going
 

4767
01:09:31,279 --> 01:09:34,110
because that later employment is going
to be very uncertain um basically.

4768
01:09:34,110 --> 01:09:34,120
to be very uncertain um basically.
 

4769
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:35,829
to be very uncertain um basically.
>> Elon talks about this age of abundance

4770
01:09:35,829 --> 01:09:35,839
>> Elon talks about this age of abundance
 

4771
01:09:35,839 --> 01:09:37,430
>> Elon talks about this age of abundance
we're heading towards.

4772
01:09:37,430 --> 01:09:37,440
we're heading towards.
 

4773
01:09:37,440 --> 01:09:38,710
we're heading towards.
Age of abundance

4774
01:09:38,710 --> 01:09:38,720
Age of abundance
 

4775
01:09:38,720 --> 01:09:40,789
Age of abundance
>> There'll definitely be abundance.

4776
01:09:40,789 --> 01:09:40,799
>> There'll definitely be abundance.
 

4777
01:09:40,799 --> 01:09:42,470
>> There'll definitely be abundance.
The question is who controls the

4778
01:09:42,470 --> 01:09:42,480
The question is who controls the
 

4779
01:09:42,480 --> 01:09:43,749
The question is who controls the
abundance?

4780
01:09:43,749 --> 01:09:43,759
abundance?
 

4781
01:09:43,759 --> 01:09:45,230
abundance?
And what do they do with it?

4782
01:09:45,230 --> 01:09:45,240
And what do they do with it?
 

4783
01:09:45,240 --> 01:09:48,070
And what do they do with it?
Right? Are the AIs controlled by anyone?

4784
01:09:48,070 --> 01:09:48,080
Right? Are the AIs controlled by anyone?
 

4785
01:09:48,080 --> 01:09:49,789
Right? Are the AIs controlled by anyone?
Or are they doing their own thing?

4786
01:09:49,789 --> 01:09:49,799
Or are they doing their own thing?
 

4787
01:09:49,799 --> 01:09:51,390
Or are they doing their own thing?
And then if they are controlled by

4788
01:09:51,390 --> 01:09:51,400
And then if they are controlled by
 

4789
01:09:51,400 --> 01:09:53,510
And then if they are controlled by
people, who controls them? And what do

4790
01:09:53,510 --> 01:09:53,520
people, who controls them? And what do
 

4791
01:09:53,520 --> 01:09:55,030
people, who controls them? And what do
they do? And what's the sort of like

4792
01:09:55,030 --> 01:09:55,040
they do? And what's the sort of like
 

4793
01:09:55,040 --> 01:09:57,150
they do? And what's the sort of like
political structure governing how they

4794
01:09:57,150 --> 01:09:57,160
political structure governing how they
 

4795
01:09:57,160 --> 01:09:58,190
political structure governing how they
make those decisions?

4796
01:09:58,190 --> 01:09:58,200
make those decisions?
 

4797
01:09:58,200 --> 01:09:59,310
make those decisions?
>> I think it was Geoffrey Hinton that said

4798
01:09:59,310 --> 01:09:59,320
>> I think it was Geoffrey Hinton that said
 

4799
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:01,430
>> I think it was Geoffrey Hinton that said
to me, he said there's no example in

4800
01:10:01,430 --> 01:10:01,440
to me, he said there's no example in
 

4801
01:10:01,440 --> 01:10:05,750
to me, he said there's no example in
nature where a more intelligent species

4802
01:10:05,750 --> 01:10:05,760
nature where a more intelligent species
 

4803
01:10:05,760 --> 01:10:09,590
nature where a more intelligent species
is has less control than a less

4804
01:10:09,590 --> 01:10:09,600
is has less control than a less
 

4805
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:12,150
is has less control than a less
intelligent species. Thus saying that

4806
01:10:12,150 --> 01:10:12,160
intelligent species. Thus saying that
 

4807
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:13,870
intelligent species. Thus saying that
we're quite arrogant to think that in a

4808
01:10:13,870 --> 01:10:13,880
we're quite arrogant to think that in a
 

4809
01:10:13,880 --> 01:10:16,230
we're quite arrogant to think that in a
world where there's this artificial

4810
01:10:16,230 --> 01:10:16,240
world where there's this artificial
 

4811
01:10:16,240 --> 01:10:18,150
world where there's this artificial
brain that's a gazillion times the size

4812
01:10:18,150 --> 01:10:18,160
brain that's a gazillion times the size
 

4813
01:10:18,160 --> 01:10:19,550
brain that's a gazillion times the size
of mine, that I'm going to give it

4814
01:10:19,550 --> 01:10:19,560
of mine, that I'm going to give it
 

4815
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:20,270
of mine, that I'm going to give it
orders.

4816
01:10:20,270 --> 01:10:20,280
orders.
 

4817
01:10:20,280 --> 01:10:22,430
orders.
>> Yeah. I mean, that that's the thing is I

4818
01:10:22,430 --> 01:10:22,440
>> Yeah. I mean, that that's the thing is I
 

4819
01:10:22,440 --> 01:10:24,070
>> Yeah. I mean, that that's the thing is I
I think it's like

4820
01:10:24,070 --> 01:10:24,080
I think it's like
 

4821
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,070
I think it's like
that should be our default assumption.

4822
01:10:26,070 --> 01:10:26,080
that should be our default assumption.
 

4823
01:10:26,080 --> 01:10:27,150
that should be our default assumption.
Is that like, well, there's these

4824
01:10:27,150 --> 01:10:27,160
Is that like, well, there's these
 

4825
01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:29,110
Is that like, well, there's these
brains, we can't see exactly what

4826
01:10:29,110 --> 01:10:29,120
brains, we can't see exactly what
 

4827
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:30,590
brains, we can't see exactly what
they're thinking. We're going to make

4828
01:10:30,590 --> 01:10:30,600
they're thinking. We're going to make
 

4829
01:10:30,600 --> 01:10:31,750
they're thinking. We're going to make
them smarter than us and put them in

4830
01:10:31,750 --> 01:10:31,760
them smarter than us and put them in
 

4831
01:10:31,760 --> 01:10:33,110
them smarter than us and put them in
charge of everything.

4832
01:10:33,110 --> 01:10:33,120
charge of everything.
 

4833
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:33,750
charge of everything.
>> And then we're going to give them

4834
01:10:33,750 --> 01:10:33,760
>> And then we're going to give them
 

4835
01:10:33,760 --> 01:10:34,390
>> And then we're going to give them
bodies.

4836
01:10:34,390 --> 01:10:34,400
bodies.
 

4837
01:10:34,400 --> 01:10:35,510
bodies.
>> Yeah. And then they're going to be

4838
01:10:35,510 --> 01:10:35,520
>> Yeah. And then they're going to be
 

4839
01:10:35,520 --> 01:10:36,830
>> Yeah. And then they're going to be
autonomously building new factories and

4840
01:10:36,830 --> 01:10:36,840
autonomously building new factories and
 

4841
01:10:36,840 --> 01:10:38,710
autonomously building new factories and
so forth. And like, how is this supposed

4842
01:10:38,710 --> 01:10:38,720
so forth. And like, how is this supposed
 

4843
01:10:38,720 --> 01:10:40,750
so forth. And like, how is this supposed
to end well again? Like, isn't this just

4844
01:10:40,750 --> 01:10:40,760
to end well again? Like, isn't this just
 

4845
01:10:40,760 --> 01:10:43,950
to end well again? Like, isn't this just
exactly like us picking a new species

4846
01:10:43,950 --> 01:10:43,960
exactly like us picking a new species
 

4847
01:10:43,960 --> 01:10:45,630
exactly like us picking a new species
that's then going to outcompete us when

4848
01:10:45,630 --> 01:10:45,640
that's then going to outcompete us when
 

4849
01:10:45,640 --> 01:10:47,670
that's then going to outcompete us when
it doesn't need us anymore? Like, I

4850
01:10:47,670 --> 01:10:47,680
it doesn't need us anymore? Like, I
 

4851
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:48,790
it doesn't need us anymore? Like, I
think that is just the default

4852
01:10:48,790 --> 01:10:48,800
think that is just the default
 

4853
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:50,430
think that is just the default
trajectory. Now, there's a whole

4854
01:10:50,430 --> 01:10:50,440
trajectory. Now, there's a whole
 

4855
01:10:50,440 --> 01:10:51,990
trajectory. Now, there's a whole
argument we can get into about like ways

4856
01:10:51,990 --> 01:10:52,000
argument we can get into about like ways
 

4857
01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:53,110
argument we can get into about like ways
that we could get off of that default

4858
01:10:53,110 --> 01:10:53,120
that we could get off of that default
 

4859
01:10:53,120 --> 01:10:55,350
that we could get off of that default
trajectory. So, for example, there's

4860
01:10:55,350 --> 01:10:55,360
trajectory. So, for example, there's
 

4861
01:10:55,360 --> 01:10:56,670
trajectory. So, for example, there's
research into interpretability that I

4862
01:10:56,670 --> 01:10:56,680
research into interpretability that I
 

4863
01:10:56,680 --> 01:10:58,310
research into interpretability that I
described previously. And if that

4864
01:10:58,310 --> 01:10:58,320
described previously. And if that
 

4865
01:10:58,320 --> 01:11:00,190
described previously. And if that
research bears fruit, then you will be

4866
01:11:00,190 --> 01:11:00,200
research bears fruit, then you will be
 

4867
01:11:00,200 --> 01:11:01,110
research bears fruit, then you will be
able to actually see what they're

4868
01:11:01,110 --> 01:11:01,120
able to actually see what they're
 

4869
01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:02,230
able to actually see what they're
thinking. And then that would be an

4870
01:11:02,230 --> 01:11:02,240
thinking. And then that would be an
 

4871
01:11:02,240 --> 01:11:04,670
thinking. And then that would be an
excellent tool for shaping them and

4872
01:11:04,670 --> 01:11:04,680
excellent tool for shaping them and
 

4873
01:11:04,680 --> 01:11:05,830
excellent tool for shaping them and
controlling them and making sure that

4874
01:11:05,830 --> 01:11:05,840
controlling them and making sure that
 

4875
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:07,270
controlling them and making sure that
they do what we want, right? There's

4876
01:11:07,270 --> 01:11:07,280
they do what we want, right? There's
 

4877
01:11:07,280 --> 01:11:08,870
they do what we want, right? There's
other sorts of um

4878
01:11:08,870 --> 01:11:08,880
other sorts of um
 

4879
01:11:08,880 --> 01:11:10,990
other sorts of um
AI alignment research agendas that are

4880
01:11:10,990 --> 01:11:11,000
AI alignment research agendas that are
 

4881
01:11:11,000 --> 01:11:13,070
AI alignment research agendas that are
making progress. And if enough of those

4882
01:11:13,070 --> 01:11:13,080
making progress. And if enough of those
 

4883
01:11:13,080 --> 01:11:15,430
making progress. And if enough of those
agendas succeed sufficiently, we can

4884
01:11:15,430 --> 01:11:15,440
agendas succeed sufficiently, we can
 

4885
01:11:15,440 --> 01:11:17,350
agendas succeed sufficiently, we can
avoid this problem. Of course, also

4886
01:11:17,350 --> 01:11:17,360
avoid this problem. Of course, also
 

4887
01:11:17,360 --> 01:11:18,710
avoid this problem. Of course, also
there's the regulatory side, too, where

4888
01:11:18,710 --> 01:11:18,720
there's the regulatory side, too, where
 

4889
01:11:18,720 --> 01:11:20,110
there's the regulatory side, too, where
like part of what makes this difficult

4890
01:11:20,110 --> 01:11:20,120
like part of what makes this difficult
 

4891
01:11:20,120 --> 01:11:22,350
like part of what makes this difficult
is that we're building these AIs in race

4892
01:11:22,350 --> 01:11:22,360
is that we're building these AIs in race
 

4893
01:11:22,360 --> 01:11:24,150
is that we're building these AIs in race
conditions, you know? Like the the

4894
01:11:24,150 --> 01:11:24,160
conditions, you know? Like the the
 

4895
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:26,430
conditions, you know? Like the the
companies are secretive about their

4896
01:11:26,430 --> 01:11:26,440
companies are secretive about their
 

4897
01:11:26,440 --> 01:11:28,590
companies are secretive about their
recipes for making these AIs because

4898
01:11:28,590 --> 01:11:28,600
recipes for making these AIs because
 

4899
01:11:28,600 --> 01:11:30,670
recipes for making these AIs because
it's secrets that they want to protect

4900
01:11:30,670 --> 01:11:30,680
it's secrets that they want to protect
 

4901
01:11:30,680 --> 01:11:32,230
it's secrets that they want to protect
so that other people can't copy them.

4902
01:11:32,230 --> 01:11:32,240
so that other people can't copy them.
 

4903
01:11:32,240 --> 01:11:34,590
so that other people can't copy them.
And so a lot of this is happening, you

4904
01:11:34,590 --> 01:11:34,600
And so a lot of this is happening, you
 

4905
01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:35,870
And so a lot of this is happening, you
know, behind closed doors. Only a few

4906
01:11:35,870 --> 01:11:35,880
know, behind closed doors. Only a few
 

4907
01:11:35,880 --> 01:11:37,630
know, behind closed doors. Only a few
people can really see

4908
01:11:37,630 --> 01:11:37,640
people can really see
 

4909
01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:39,190
people can really see
the recipes that they're using to train

4910
01:11:39,190 --> 01:11:39,200
the recipes that they're using to train
 

4911
01:11:39,200 --> 01:11:41,110
the recipes that they're using to train
these AIs and and so forth. And then

4912
01:11:41,110 --> 01:11:41,120
these AIs and and so forth. And then
 

4913
01:11:41,120 --> 01:11:43,190
these AIs and and so forth. And then
oftentimes when the AIs

4914
01:11:43,190 --> 01:11:43,200
oftentimes when the AIs
 

4915
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:44,870
oftentimes when the AIs
behave in unexpected ways or even just

4916
01:11:44,870 --> 01:11:44,880
behave in unexpected ways or even just
 

4917
01:11:44,880 --> 01:11:46,790
behave in unexpected ways or even just
like blatantly misaligned ways,

4918
01:11:46,790 --> 01:11:46,800
like blatantly misaligned ways,
 

4919
01:11:46,800 --> 01:11:47,870
like blatantly misaligned ways,
sometimes that information doesn't

4920
01:11:47,870 --> 01:11:47,880
sometimes that information doesn't
 

4921
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:49,310
sometimes that information doesn't
really flow out to the public because

4922
01:11:49,310 --> 01:11:49,320
really flow out to the public because
 

4923
01:11:49,320 --> 01:11:50,190
really flow out to the public because
the companies are not really

4924
01:11:50,190 --> 01:11:50,200
the companies are not really
 

4925
01:11:50,200 --> 01:11:52,630
the companies are not really
incentivized to tell everyone about how

4926
01:11:52,630 --> 01:11:52,640
incentivized to tell everyone about how
 

4927
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:53,990
incentivized to tell everyone about how
they messed up and how their AI is evil.

4928
01:11:53,990 --> 01:11:54,000
they messed up and how their AI is evil.
 

4929
01:11:54,000 --> 01:11:55,630
they messed up and how their AI is evil.
It's just not very conducive to

4930
01:11:55,630 --> 01:11:55,640
It's just not very conducive to
 

4931
01:11:55,640 --> 01:11:58,110
It's just not very conducive to
scientific progress on these issues. If

4932
01:11:58,110 --> 01:11:58,120
scientific progress on these issues. If
 

4933
01:11:58,120 --> 01:11:59,670
scientific progress on these issues. If
the regulatory system was different,

4934
01:11:59,670 --> 01:11:59,680
the regulatory system was different,
 

4935
01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:00,830
the regulatory system was different,
then perhaps we could be in a better

4936
01:12:00,830 --> 01:12:00,840
then perhaps we could be in a better
 

4937
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:02,830
then perhaps we could be in a better
situation, make faster progress. Also,

4938
01:12:02,830 --> 01:12:02,840
situation, make faster progress. Also,
 

4939
01:12:02,840 --> 01:12:05,270
situation, make faster progress. Also,
of course, we wouldn't be planning to

4940
01:12:05,270 --> 01:12:05,280
of course, we wouldn't be planning to
 

4941
01:12:05,280 --> 01:12:06,950
of course, we wouldn't be planning to
put these AIs in charge of everything as

4942
01:12:06,950 --> 01:12:06,960
put these AIs in charge of everything as
 

4943
01:12:06,960 --> 01:12:08,350
put these AIs in charge of everything as
fast as possible. And we wouldn't be

4944
01:12:08,350 --> 01:12:08,360
fast as possible. And we wouldn't be
 

4945
01:12:08,360 --> 01:12:10,510
fast as possible. And we wouldn't be
planning to like let them self-improve,

4946
01:12:10,510 --> 01:12:10,520
planning to like let them self-improve,
 

4947
01:12:10,520 --> 01:12:12,110
planning to like let them self-improve,
you know? Like the these are choices

4948
01:12:12,110 --> 01:12:12,120
you know? Like the these are choices
 

4949
01:12:12,120 --> 01:12:17,710
you know? Like the these are choices
that we could not make, you know?

4950
01:12:17,710 --> 01:12:17,720

 

4951
01:12:17,720 --> 01:12:19,550

>> I don't speak Vietnamese, but this show

4952
01:12:19,550 --> 01:12:19,560
>> I don't speak Vietnamese, but this show
 

4953
01:12:19,560 --> 01:12:21,710
>> I don't speak Vietnamese, but this show
can because of AI video technology from

4954
01:12:21,710 --> 01:12:21,720
can because of AI video technology from
 

4955
01:12:21,720 --> 01:12:23,630
can because of AI video technology from
our sponsor, HeyGen. I get messages

4956
01:12:23,630 --> 01:12:23,640
our sponsor, HeyGen. I get messages
 

4957
01:12:23,640 --> 01:12:24,750
our sponsor, HeyGen. I get messages
every single week from those of you

4958
01:12:24,750 --> 01:12:24,760
every single week from those of you
 

4959
01:12:24,760 --> 01:12:26,550
every single week from those of you
listening to the Current CEO all around

4960
01:12:26,550 --> 01:12:26,560
listening to the Current CEO all around
 

4961
01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:28,070
listening to the Current CEO all around
the world, and you express how much

4962
01:12:28,070 --> 01:12:28,080
the world, and you express how much
 

4963
01:12:28,080 --> 01:12:29,830
the world, and you express how much
impact it's had on you and your life.

4964
01:12:29,830 --> 01:12:29,840
impact it's had on you and your life.
 

4965
01:12:29,840 --> 01:12:31,070
impact it's had on you and your life.
And if that's true, then those

4966
01:12:31,070 --> 01:12:31,080
And if that's true, then those
 

4967
01:12:31,080 --> 01:12:32,430
And if that's true, then those
conversations shouldn't only reach

4968
01:12:32,430 --> 01:12:32,440
conversations shouldn't only reach
 

4969
01:12:32,440 --> 01:12:34,750
conversations shouldn't only reach
people in English. HeyGen can take one

4970
01:12:34,750 --> 01:12:34,760
people in English. HeyGen can take one
 

4971
01:12:34,760 --> 01:12:36,510
people in English. HeyGen can take one
recording of me and deliver in any

4972
01:12:36,510 --> 01:12:36,520
recording of me and deliver in any
 

4973
01:12:36,520 --> 01:12:38,550
recording of me and deliver in any
language while keeping my voice, timing,

4974
01:12:38,550 --> 01:12:38,560
language while keeping my voice, timing,
 

4975
01:12:38,560 --> 01:12:41,350
language while keeping my voice, timing,
and expressions intact. But you don't

4976
01:12:41,350 --> 01:12:41,360
and expressions intact. But you don't
 

4977
01:12:41,360 --> 01:12:43,630
and expressions intact. But you don't
need a studio like this to make it work

4978
01:12:43,630 --> 01:12:43,640
need a studio like this to make it work
 

4979
01:12:43,640 --> 01:12:46,630
need a studio like this to make it work
for you. Record 15 seconds of yourself

4980
01:12:46,630 --> 01:12:46,640
for you. Record 15 seconds of yourself
 

4981
01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:48,110
for you. Record 15 seconds of yourself
and get an AI avatar that delivers

4982
01:12:48,110 --> 01:12:48,120
and get an AI avatar that delivers
 

4983
01:12:48,120 --> 01:12:51,470
and get an AI avatar that delivers
studio-quality video in over 175

4984
01:12:51,470 --> 01:12:51,480
studio-quality video in over 175
 

4985
01:12:51,480 --> 01:12:54,270
studio-quality video in over 175
languages. We're up to 20 languages now,

4986
01:12:54,270 --> 01:12:54,280
languages. We're up to 20 languages now,
 

4987
01:12:54,280 --> 01:12:56,350
languages. We're up to 20 languages now,
and we're not the only ones using it.

4988
01:12:56,350 --> 01:12:56,360
and we're not the only ones using it.
 

4989
01:12:56,360 --> 01:12:58,750
and we're not the only ones using it.
HeyGen is already used by 30 million

4990
01:12:58,750 --> 01:12:58,760
HeyGen is already used by 30 million
 

4991
01:12:58,760 --> 01:13:01,070
HeyGen is already used by 30 million
people, including 85% of the Fortune

4992
01:13:01,070 --> 01:13:01,080
people, including 85% of the Fortune
 

4993
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:02,590
people, including 85% of the Fortune
100. Whether you're building an audience

4994
01:13:02,590 --> 01:13:02,600
100. Whether you're building an audience
 

4995
01:13:02,600 --> 01:13:04,390
100. Whether you're building an audience
on social media, launching an online

4996
01:13:04,390 --> 01:13:04,400
on social media, launching an online
 

4997
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:05,950
on social media, launching an online
course, or rolling out training across

4998
01:13:05,950 --> 01:13:05,960
course, or rolling out training across
 

4999
01:13:05,960 --> 01:13:08,630
course, or rolling out training across
your team, check out HeyGen now. Your

5000
01:13:08,630 --> 01:13:08,640
your team, check out HeyGen now. Your
 

5001
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:10,830
your team, check out HeyGen now. Your
first three videos are totally free at

5002
01:13:10,830 --> 01:13:10,840
first three videos are totally free at
 

5003
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:13,030
first three videos are totally free at
heygen.com/doac.

5004
01:13:13,030 --> 01:13:13,040
heygen.com/doac.
 

5005
01:13:13,040 --> 01:13:16,710
heygen.com/doac.
That's h e y g e n dot com slash d o a

5006
01:13:16,710 --> 01:13:16,720
That's h e y g e n dot com slash d o a
 

5007
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:18,990
That's h e y g e n dot com slash d o a
c. See you there.

5008
01:13:18,990 --> 01:13:19,000
c. See you there.
 

5009
01:13:19,000 --> 01:13:20,870
c. See you there.
>> Ilya was As you said, he was one of the

5010
01:13:20,870 --> 01:13:20,880
>> Ilya was As you said, he was one of the
 

5011
01:13:20,880 --> 01:13:22,270
>> Ilya was As you said, he was one of the
leaders at OpenAI, and he left and he

5012
01:13:22,270 --> 01:13:22,280
leaders at OpenAI, and he left and he
 

5013
01:13:22,280 --> 01:13:23,630
leaders at OpenAI, and he left and he
started his own company now, Safe

5014
01:13:23,630 --> 01:13:23,640
started his own company now, Safe
 

5015
01:13:23,640 --> 01:13:25,430
started his own company now, Safe
Superintelligence.

5016
01:13:25,430 --> 01:13:25,440
Superintelligence.
 

5017
01:13:25,440 --> 01:13:27,070
Superintelligence.
Very curious name of a company, Safe

5018
01:13:27,070 --> 01:13:27,080
Very curious name of a company, Safe
 

5019
01:13:27,080 --> 01:13:29,110
Very curious name of a company, Safe
Superintelligence, after leaving OpenAI.

5020
01:13:29,110 --> 01:13:29,120
Superintelligence, after leaving OpenAI.
 

5021
01:13:29,120 --> 01:13:30,390
Superintelligence, after leaving OpenAI.
Did you ever get to work with him?

5022
01:13:30,390 --> 01:13:30,400
Did you ever get to work with him?
 

5023
01:13:30,400 --> 01:13:31,950
Did you ever get to work with him?
>> Uh I wasn't directly working with him. I

5024
01:13:31,950 --> 01:13:31,960
>> Uh I wasn't directly working with him. I
 

5025
01:13:31,960 --> 01:13:33,190
>> Uh I wasn't directly working with him. I
had a couple chats with him.

5026
01:13:33,190 --> 01:13:33,200
had a couple chats with him.
 

5027
01:13:33,200 --> 01:13:35,470
had a couple chats with him.
>> Do you think he's he's genuinely

5028
01:13:35,470 --> 01:13:35,480
>> Do you think he's he's genuinely
 

5029
01:13:35,480 --> 01:13:36,630
>> Do you think he's he's genuinely
concerned as well?

5030
01:13:36,630 --> 01:13:36,640
concerned as well?
 

5031
01:13:36,640 --> 01:13:39,030
concerned as well?
>> I think he is, but I think it's I think

5032
01:13:39,030 --> 01:13:39,040
>> I think he is, but I think it's I think
 

5033
01:13:39,040 --> 01:13:43,270
>> I think he is, but I think it's I think
he's similar to these other CEOs, where

5034
01:13:43,270 --> 01:13:43,280
he's similar to these other CEOs, where
 

5035
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:44,270
he's similar to these other CEOs, where
I mean, just think about the sort of

5036
01:13:44,270 --> 01:13:44,280
I mean, just think about the sort of
 

5037
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:45,390
I mean, just think about the sort of
incentives that they're under, right?

5038
01:13:45,390 --> 01:13:45,400
incentives that they're under, right?
 

5039
01:13:45,400 --> 01:13:47,670
incentives that they're under, right?
Like

5040
01:13:47,670 --> 01:13:47,680
Like
 

5041
01:13:47,680 --> 01:13:49,550
Like
they can sort of see the problem,

5042
01:13:49,550 --> 01:13:49,560
they can sort of see the problem,
 

5043
01:13:49,560 --> 01:13:50,990
they can sort of see the problem,
and then they can

5044
01:13:50,990 --> 01:13:51,000
and then they can
 

5045
01:13:51,000 --> 01:13:52,870
and then they can
be like, okay, but like if I don't if I

5046
01:13:52,870 --> 01:13:52,880
be like, okay, but like if I don't if I
 

5047
01:13:52,880 --> 01:13:55,350
be like, okay, but like if I don't if I
stop, if I quit my job, and or do

5048
01:13:55,350 --> 01:13:55,360
stop, if I quit my job, and or do
 

5049
01:13:55,360 --> 01:13:56,510
stop, if I quit my job, and or do
something else,

5050
01:13:56,510 --> 01:13:56,520
something else,
 

5051
01:13:56,520 --> 01:13:57,670
something else,
that's not going to solve the problem,

5052
01:13:57,670 --> 01:13:57,680
that's not going to solve the problem,
 

5053
01:13:57,680 --> 01:13:59,030
that's not going to solve the problem,
cuz the other CEOs are going to keep

5054
01:13:59,030 --> 01:13:59,040
cuz the other CEOs are going to keep
 

5055
01:13:59,040 --> 01:14:00,510
cuz the other CEOs are going to keep
going.

5056
01:14:00,510 --> 01:14:00,520
going.
 

5057
01:14:00,520 --> 01:14:01,790
going.
And even if all of us didn't go, then

5058
01:14:01,790 --> 01:14:01,800
And even if all of us didn't go, then
 

5059
01:14:01,800 --> 01:14:03,590
And even if all of us didn't go, then
maybe China would keep going. So, like,

5060
01:14:03,590 --> 01:14:03,600
maybe China would keep going. So, like,
 

5061
01:14:03,600 --> 01:14:04,710
maybe China would keep going. So, like,
man, it seems like this is just going to

5062
01:14:04,710 --> 01:14:04,720
man, it seems like this is just going to
 

5063
01:14:04,720 --> 01:14:05,870
man, it seems like this is just going to
happen one way or another, whether I do

5064
01:14:05,870 --> 01:14:05,880
happen one way or another, whether I do
 

5065
01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:08,110
happen one way or another, whether I do
anything about it or not.

5066
01:14:08,110 --> 01:14:08,120
anything about it or not.
 

5067
01:14:08,120 --> 01:14:09,830
anything about it or not.
I guess I should be involved, you know,

5068
01:14:09,830 --> 01:14:09,840
I guess I should be involved, you know,
 

5069
01:14:09,840 --> 01:14:11,150
I guess I should be involved, you know,
and like maybe I can make it go well,

5070
01:14:11,150 --> 01:14:11,160
and like maybe I can make it go well,
 

5071
01:14:11,160 --> 01:14:12,750
and like maybe I can make it go well,
and at any rate, like I don't want to be

5072
01:14:12,750 --> 01:14:12,760
and at any rate, like I don't want to be
 

5073
01:14:12,760 --> 01:14:14,270
and at any rate, like I don't want to be
out in the cold while these other people

5074
01:14:14,270 --> 01:14:14,280
out in the cold while these other people
 

5075
01:14:14,280 --> 01:14:15,230
out in the cold while these other people
I don't trust are in charge of

5076
01:14:15,230 --> 01:14:15,240
I don't trust are in charge of
 

5077
01:14:15,240 --> 01:14:16,830
I don't trust are in charge of
everything. So, they all sort of like

5078
01:14:16,830 --> 01:14:16,840
everything. So, they all sort of like
 

5079
01:14:16,840 --> 01:14:17,910
everything. So, they all sort of like
reason through all of this and then

5080
01:14:17,910 --> 01:14:17,920
reason through all of this and then
 

5081
01:14:17,920 --> 01:14:19,830
reason through all of this and then
convince themselves that like the thing

5082
01:14:19,830 --> 01:14:19,840
convince themselves that like the thing
 

5083
01:14:19,840 --> 01:14:20,870
convince themselves that like the thing
to do is for them

5084
01:14:20,870 --> 01:14:20,880
to do is for them
 

5085
01:14:20,880 --> 01:14:21,590
to do is for them
>> to build their AI.

5086
01:14:21,590 --> 01:14:21,600
>> to build their AI.
 

5087
01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:22,870
>> to build their AI.
>> build it and to do it better. And I

5088
01:14:22,870 --> 01:14:22,880
>> build it and to do it better. And I
 

5089
01:14:22,880 --> 01:14:25,310
>> build it and to do it better. And I
think Ilya's just the latest example of

5090
01:14:25,310 --> 01:14:25,320
think Ilya's just the latest example of
 

5091
01:14:25,320 --> 01:14:27,990
think Ilya's just the latest example of
this. Elon's another example. Dario's

5092
01:14:27,990 --> 01:14:28,000
this. Elon's another example. Dario's
 

5093
01:14:28,000 --> 01:14:29,390
this. Elon's another example. Dario's
another example.

5094
01:14:29,390 --> 01:14:29,400
another example.
 

5095
01:14:29,400 --> 01:14:30,670
another example.
You know, arguably OpenAI at the

5096
01:14:30,670 --> 01:14:30,680
You know, arguably OpenAI at the
 

5097
01:14:30,680 --> 01:14:32,390
You know, arguably OpenAI at the
beginning, Sam was an example, although

5098
01:14:32,390 --> 01:14:32,400
beginning, Sam was an example, although
 

5099
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:34,830
beginning, Sam was an example, although
like Elon and Dario were at OpenAI early

5100
01:14:34,830 --> 01:14:34,840
like Elon and Dario were at OpenAI early
 

5101
01:14:34,840 --> 01:14:35,510
like Elon and Dario were at OpenAI early
on, so

5102
01:14:35,510 --> 01:14:35,520
on, so
 

5103
01:14:35,520 --> 01:14:36,790
on, so
>> What do you think they should all do

5104
01:14:36,790 --> 01:14:36,800
>> What do you think they should all do
 

5105
01:14:36,800 --> 01:14:37,550
>> What do you think they should all do
then?

5106
01:14:37,550 --> 01:14:37,560
then?
 

5107
01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:38,950
then?
>> So, I think what should happen is some

5108
01:14:38,950 --> 01:14:38,960
>> So, I think what should happen is some
 

5109
01:14:38,960 --> 01:14:40,710
>> So, I think what should happen is some
sort of international regulation, or at

5110
01:14:40,710 --> 01:14:40,720
sort of international regulation, or at
 

5111
01:14:40,720 --> 01:14:42,150
sort of international regulation, or at
least domestic regulation, similar to

5112
01:14:42,150 --> 01:14:42,160
least domestic regulation, similar to
 

5113
01:14:42,160 --> 01:14:43,550
least domestic regulation, similar to
what we described in plan A.

5114
01:14:43,550 --> 01:14:43,560
what we described in plan A.
 

5115
01:14:43,560 --> 01:14:45,230
what we described in plan A.
>> Okay, so talk me through plan A.

5116
01:14:45,230 --> 01:14:45,240
>> Okay, so talk me through plan A.
 

5117
01:14:45,240 --> 01:14:46,030
>> Okay, so talk me through plan A.
>> Yeah.

5118
01:14:46,030 --> 01:14:46,040
>> Yeah.
 

5119
01:14:46,040 --> 01:14:48,750
>> Yeah.
So, in this scenario

5120
01:14:48,750 --> 01:14:48,760
So, in this scenario
 

5121
01:14:48,760 --> 01:14:51,470
So, in this scenario
AI takes longer to the to get to

5122
01:14:51,470 --> 01:14:51,480
AI takes longer to the to get to
 

5123
01:14:51,480 --> 01:14:52,870
AI takes longer to the to get to
recursive self-improvement and full

5124
01:14:52,870 --> 01:14:52,880
recursive self-improvement and full
 

5125
01:14:52,880 --> 01:14:54,110
recursive self-improvement and full
automation of AI research than it does

5126
01:14:54,110 --> 01:14:54,120
automation of AI research than it does
 

5127
01:14:54,120 --> 01:14:56,470
automation of AI research than it does
in 2027. We figured that we should try

5128
01:14:56,470 --> 01:14:56,480
in 2027. We figured that we should try
 

5129
01:14:56,480 --> 01:14:57,750
in 2027. We figured that we should try
to illustrate like a range of different

5130
01:14:57,750 --> 01:14:57,760
to illustrate like a range of different
 

5131
01:14:57,760 --> 01:14:59,230
to illustrate like a range of different
possibilities because we do have those

5132
01:14:59,230 --> 01:14:59,240
possibilities because we do have those
 

5133
01:14:59,240 --> 01:15:01,550
possibilities because we do have those
sort of uncertainty intervals. So, we

5134
01:15:01,550 --> 01:15:01,560
sort of uncertainty intervals. So, we
 

5135
01:15:01,560 --> 01:15:04,070
sort of uncertainty intervals. So, we
chose 2030 as the

5136
01:15:04,070 --> 01:15:04,080
chose 2030 as the
 

5137
01:15:04,080 --> 01:15:05,990
chose 2030 as the
moment when full automation would

5138
01:15:05,990 --> 01:15:06,000
moment when full automation would
 

5139
01:15:06,000 --> 01:15:07,390
moment when full automation would
finally be achieved and things would

5140
01:15:07,390 --> 01:15:07,400
finally be achieved and things would
 

5141
01:15:07,400 --> 01:15:08,750
finally be achieved and things would
really kick off.

5142
01:15:08,750 --> 01:15:08,760
really kick off.
 

5143
01:15:08,760 --> 01:15:11,150
really kick off.
And then working backwards from that

5144
01:15:11,150 --> 01:15:11,160
And then working backwards from that
 

5145
01:15:11,160 --> 01:15:12,350
And then working backwards from that
when's the last moment you could really

5146
01:15:12,350 --> 01:15:12,360
when's the last moment you could really
 

5147
01:15:12,360 --> 01:15:15,070
when's the last moment you could really
have good regulation? 2029. So, in this

5148
01:15:15,070 --> 01:15:15,080
have good regulation? 2029. So, in this
 

5149
01:15:15,080 --> 01:15:16,150
have good regulation? 2029. So, in this
scenario

5150
01:15:16,150 --> 01:15:16,160
scenario
 

5151
01:15:16,160 --> 01:15:17,630
scenario
AI progress slows down a little bit

5152
01:15:17,630 --> 01:15:17,640
AI progress slows down a little bit
 

5153
01:15:17,640 --> 01:15:20,270
AI progress slows down a little bit
naturally and the AI companies keep keep

5154
01:15:20,270 --> 01:15:20,280
naturally and the AI companies keep keep
 

5155
01:15:20,280 --> 01:15:22,390
naturally and the AI companies keep keep
racing, but they don't quite succeed in

5156
01:15:22,390 --> 01:15:22,400
racing, but they don't quite succeed in
 

5157
01:15:22,400 --> 01:15:25,510
racing, but they don't quite succeed in
automating uh themselves in 2027 or in

5158
01:15:25,510 --> 01:15:25,520
automating uh themselves in 2027 or in
 

5159
01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:27,870
automating uh themselves in 2027 or in
2028 or in 2029, but they're getting

5160
01:15:27,870 --> 01:15:27,880
2028 or in 2029, but they're getting
 

5161
01:15:27,880 --> 01:15:28,790
2028 or in 2029, but they're getting
really close and they're going to do it

5162
01:15:28,790 --> 01:15:28,800
really close and they're going to do it
 

5163
01:15:28,800 --> 01:15:30,030
really close and they're going to do it
in 2030.

5164
01:15:30,030 --> 01:15:30,040
in 2030.
 

5165
01:15:30,040 --> 01:15:31,750
in 2030.
And then in 2029, the government steps

5166
01:15:31,750 --> 01:15:31,760
And then in 2029, the government steps
 

5167
01:15:31,760 --> 01:15:34,110
And then in 2029, the government steps
in and regulates them. What regulations

5168
01:15:34,110 --> 01:15:34,120
in and regulates them. What regulations
 

5169
01:15:34,120 --> 01:15:35,510
in and regulates them. What regulations
do they do? Well, they basically just

5170
01:15:35,510 --> 01:15:35,520
do they do? Well, they basically just
 

5171
01:15:35,520 --> 01:15:37,150
do they do? Well, they basically just
shut it down temporarily.

5172
01:15:37,150 --> 01:15:37,160
shut it down temporarily.
 

5173
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:39,630
shut it down temporarily.
>> Can I ask um

5174
01:15:39,630 --> 01:15:39,640
>> Can I ask um
 

5175
01:15:39,640 --> 01:15:41,990
>> Can I ask um
how does the elections overlay with your

5176
01:15:41,990 --> 01:15:42,000
how does the elections overlay with your
 

5177
01:15:42,000 --> 01:15:43,430
how does the elections overlay with your
time frames here? Because there's going

5178
01:15:43,430 --> 01:15:43,440
time frames here? Because there's going
 

5179
01:15:43,440 --> 01:15:44,510
time frames here? Because there's going
to be a big election, isn't there in

5180
01:15:44,510 --> 01:15:44,520
to be a big election, isn't there in
 

5181
01:15:44,520 --> 01:15:46,270
to be a big election, isn't there in
2028?

5182
01:15:46,270 --> 01:15:46,280
2028?
 

5183
01:15:46,280 --> 01:15:47,830
2028?
And it seems now that sentiment has

5184
01:15:47,830 --> 01:15:47,840
And it seems now that sentiment has
 

5185
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:49,910
And it seems now that sentiment has
really really turned against AI in in

5186
01:15:49,910 --> 01:15:49,920
really really turned against AI in in
 

5187
01:15:49,920 --> 01:15:51,830
really really turned against AI in in
sort of in the general public and that

5188
01:15:51,830 --> 01:15:51,840
sort of in the general public and that
 

5189
01:15:51,840 --> 01:15:53,270
sort of in the general public and that
it will be one of the big ticket items

5190
01:15:53,270 --> 01:15:53,280
it will be one of the big ticket items
 

5191
01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:54,670
it will be one of the big ticket items
on the on the ballot.

5192
01:15:54,670 --> 01:15:54,680
on the on the ballot.
 

5193
01:15:54,680 --> 01:15:55,950
on the on the ballot.
>> We think that it'll be maybe the most

5194
01:15:55,950 --> 01:15:55,960
>> We think that it'll be maybe the most
 

5195
01:15:55,960 --> 01:15:57,870
>> We think that it'll be maybe the most
important issue in the presidential

5196
01:15:57,870 --> 01:15:57,880
important issue in the presidential
 

5197
01:15:57,880 --> 01:16:00,070
important issue in the presidential
election in 2028. Um I think a lot of

5198
01:16:00,070 --> 01:16:00,080
election in 2028. Um I think a lot of
 

5199
01:16:00,080 --> 01:16:02,110
election in 2028. Um I think a lot of
people most people will be quite

5200
01:16:02,110 --> 01:16:02,120
people most people will be quite
 

5201
01:16:02,120 --> 01:16:03,710
people most people will be quite
concerned about where things are headed

5202
01:16:03,710 --> 01:16:03,720
concerned about where things are headed
 

5203
01:16:03,720 --> 01:16:06,790
concerned about where things are headed
and that's part of why we we chose

5204
01:16:06,790 --> 01:16:06,800
and that's part of why we we chose
 

5205
01:16:06,800 --> 01:16:07,990
and that's part of why we we chose
to depict things the way they were doing

5206
01:16:07,990 --> 01:16:08,000
to depict things the way they were doing
 

5207
01:16:08,000 --> 01:16:09,750
to depict things the way they were doing
in this scenario because that helps

5208
01:16:09,750 --> 01:16:09,760
in this scenario because that helps
 

5209
01:16:09,760 --> 01:16:10,950
in this scenario because that helps
explain why they might do this sort of

5210
01:16:10,950 --> 01:16:10,960
explain why they might do this sort of
 

5211
01:16:10,960 --> 01:16:13,070
explain why they might do this sort of
regulation in 2029 is that the voters

5212
01:16:13,070 --> 01:16:13,080
regulation in 2029 is that the voters
 

5213
01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:13,990
regulation in 2029 is that the voters
have been demanding it and the

5214
01:16:13,990 --> 01:16:14,000
have been demanding it and the
 

5215
01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:14,950
have been demanding it and the
presidential candidates have been

5216
01:16:14,950 --> 01:16:14,960
presidential candidates have been
 

5217
01:16:14,960 --> 01:16:15,830
presidential candidates have been
promising it.

5218
01:16:15,830 --> 01:16:15,840
promising it.
 

5219
01:16:15,840 --> 01:16:18,110
promising it.
>> And in this scenario and then 2027,

5220
01:16:18,110 --> 01:16:18,120
>> And in this scenario and then 2027,
 

5221
01:16:18,120 --> 01:16:19,790
>> And in this scenario and then 2027,
would the general public have felt the

5222
01:16:19,790 --> 01:16:19,800
would the general public have felt the
 

5223
01:16:19,800 --> 01:16:21,910
would the general public have felt the
consequences of AI much more severely

5224
01:16:21,910 --> 01:16:21,920
consequences of AI much more severely
 

5225
01:16:21,920 --> 01:16:23,670
consequences of AI much more severely
than they have now by then?

5226
01:16:23,670 --> 01:16:23,680
than they have now by then?
 

5227
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:24,710
than they have now by then?
>> Yes.

5228
01:16:24,710 --> 01:16:24,720
>> Yes.
 

5229
01:16:24,720 --> 01:16:26,510
>> Yes.
Although still even in 2029 in this

5230
01:16:26,510 --> 01:16:26,520
Although still even in 2029 in this
 

5231
01:16:26,520 --> 01:16:27,630
Although still even in 2029 in this
scenario, they still mostly have the

5232
01:16:27,630 --> 01:16:27,640
scenario, they still mostly have the
 

5233
01:16:27,640 --> 01:16:29,870
scenario, they still mostly have the
jobs as as depicted here, right? So, in

5234
01:16:29,870 --> 01:16:29,880
jobs as as depicted here, right? So, in
 

5235
01:16:29,880 --> 01:16:32,390
jobs as as depicted here, right? So, in
in 2029 in this scenario, lots of jobs

5236
01:16:32,390 --> 01:16:32,400
in 2029 in this scenario, lots of jobs
 

5237
01:16:32,400 --> 01:16:34,710
in 2029 in this scenario, lots of jobs
now involve managing AI agents.

5238
01:16:34,710 --> 01:16:34,720
now involve managing AI agents.
 

5239
01:16:34,720 --> 01:16:35,990
now involve managing AI agents.
You you mentioned you have an AI agent,

5240
01:16:35,990 --> 01:16:36,000
You you mentioned you have an AI agent,
 

5241
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:38,710
You you mentioned you have an AI agent,
right? Well, in 2029 in this scenario,

5242
01:16:38,710 --> 01:16:38,720
right? Well, in 2029 in this scenario,
 

5243
01:16:38,720 --> 01:16:40,670
right? Well, in 2029 in this scenario,
the AI agents will be much better. Still

5244
01:16:40,670 --> 01:16:40,680
the AI agents will be much better. Still
 

5245
01:16:40,680 --> 01:16:42,190
the AI agents will be much better. Still
though, not enough to just completely do

5246
01:16:42,190 --> 01:16:42,200
though, not enough to just completely do
 

5247
01:16:42,200 --> 01:16:43,990
though, not enough to just completely do
everything. You know, that was the sort

5248
01:16:43,990 --> 01:16:44,000
everything. You know, that was the sort
 

5249
01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:45,870
everything. You know, that was the sort
of thing that would come in 2030

5250
01:16:45,870 --> 01:16:45,880
of thing that would come in 2030
 

5251
01:16:45,880 --> 01:16:47,910
of thing that would come in 2030
in this in this timeline. Again, we're

5252
01:16:47,910 --> 01:16:47,920
in this in this timeline. Again, we're
 

5253
01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:49,310
in this in this timeline. Again, we're
uncertain about timelines.

5254
01:16:49,310 --> 01:16:49,320
uncertain about timelines.
 

5255
01:16:49,320 --> 01:16:50,750
uncertain about timelines.
Things could go faster than depicted in

5256
01:16:50,750 --> 01:16:50,760
Things could go faster than depicted in
 

5257
01:16:50,760 --> 01:16:51,950
Things could go faster than depicted in
this scenario, and in fact, I think

5258
01:16:51,950 --> 01:16:51,960
this scenario, and in fact, I think
 

5259
01:16:51,960 --> 01:16:53,550
this scenario, and in fact, I think
things probably will go a bit faster

5260
01:16:53,550 --> 01:16:53,560
things probably will go a bit faster
 

5261
01:16:53,560 --> 01:16:54,990
things probably will go a bit faster
than depicted in this scenario, but

5262
01:16:54,990 --> 01:16:55,000
than depicted in this scenario, but
 

5263
01:16:55,000 --> 01:16:56,310
than depicted in this scenario, but
we're uncertain. We already did the very

5264
01:16:56,310 --> 01:16:56,320
we're uncertain. We already did the very
 

5265
01:16:56,320 --> 01:16:57,550
we're uncertain. We already did the very
fast timeline scenario, so now we're

5266
01:16:57,550 --> 01:16:57,560
fast timeline scenario, so now we're
 

5267
01:16:57,560 --> 01:16:59,430
fast timeline scenario, so now we're
doing the slower timeline scenario. But,

5268
01:16:59,430 --> 01:16:59,440
doing the slower timeline scenario. But,
 

5269
01:16:59,440 --> 01:17:00,070
doing the slower timeline scenario. But,
maybe we should talk about the

5270
01:17:00,070 --> 01:17:00,080
maybe we should talk about the
 

5271
01:17:00,080 --> 01:17:02,990
maybe we should talk about the
high-level goals. So,

5272
01:17:02,990 --> 01:17:03,000
high-level goals. So,
 

5273
01:17:03,000 --> 01:17:05,070
high-level goals. So,
they want to have AI continue, but in a

5274
01:17:05,070 --> 01:17:05,080
they want to have AI continue, but in a
 

5275
01:17:05,080 --> 01:17:07,070
they want to have AI continue, but in a
slower pace so that they can make it

5276
01:17:07,070 --> 01:17:07,080
slower pace so that they can make it
 

5277
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:07,790
slower pace so that they can make it
safe.

5278
01:17:07,790 --> 01:17:07,800
safe.
 

5279
01:17:07,800 --> 01:17:09,350
safe.
>> The politicians, you know, the president

5280
01:17:09,350 --> 01:17:09,360
>> The politicians, you know, the president
 

5281
01:17:09,360 --> 01:17:11,070
>> The politicians, you know, the president
and the people who voted for the

5282
01:17:11,070 --> 01:17:11,080
and the people who voted for the
 

5283
01:17:11,080 --> 01:17:13,230
and the people who voted for the
president and, you know, the heads of

5284
01:17:13,230 --> 01:17:13,240
president and, you know, the heads of
 

5285
01:17:13,240 --> 01:17:15,750
president and, you know, the heads of
other governments and so forth. So, goal

5286
01:17:15,750 --> 01:17:15,760
other governments and so forth. So, goal
 

5287
01:17:15,760 --> 01:17:17,630
other governments and so forth. So, goal
one, slow things down.

5288
01:17:17,630 --> 01:17:17,640
one, slow things down.
 

5289
01:17:17,640 --> 01:17:20,150
one, slow things down.
Um goal two, make it more transparent

5290
01:17:20,150 --> 01:17:20,160
Um goal two, make it more transparent
 

5291
01:17:20,160 --> 01:17:22,070
Um goal two, make it more transparent
so that the scientific community can

5292
01:17:22,070 --> 01:17:22,080
so that the scientific community can
 

5293
01:17:22,080 --> 01:17:23,510
so that the scientific community can
catch up to this stuff and make more

5294
01:17:23,510 --> 01:17:23,520
catch up to this stuff and make more
 

5295
01:17:23,520 --> 01:17:24,910
catch up to this stuff and make more
progress. And also, so that we don't

5296
01:17:24,910 --> 01:17:24,920
progress. And also, so that we don't
 

5297
01:17:24,920 --> 01:17:26,470
progress. And also, so that we don't
have to take the company's word for it

5298
01:17:26,470 --> 01:17:26,480
have to take the company's word for it
 

5299
01:17:26,480 --> 01:17:27,510
have to take the company's word for it
when they say that their systems are

5300
01:17:27,510 --> 01:17:27,520
when they say that their systems are
 

5301
01:17:27,520 --> 01:17:28,630
when they say that their systems are
safe and when they say that they

5302
01:17:28,630 --> 01:17:28,640
safe and when they say that they
 

5303
01:17:28,640 --> 01:17:30,390
safe and when they say that they
haven't, you know,

5304
01:17:30,390 --> 01:17:30,400
haven't, you know,
 

5305
01:17:30,400 --> 01:17:32,230
haven't, you know,
put in any biases into their systems,

5306
01:17:32,230 --> 01:17:32,240
put in any biases into their systems,
 

5307
01:17:32,240 --> 01:17:33,430
put in any biases into their systems,
for example. That's a constitutional

5308
01:17:33,430 --> 01:17:33,440
for example. That's a constitutional
 

5309
01:17:33,440 --> 01:17:36,590
for example. That's a constitutional
power issue. We also want to avoid a

5310
01:17:36,590 --> 01:17:36,600
power issue. We also want to avoid a
 

5311
01:17:36,600 --> 01:17:37,670
power issue. We also want to avoid a
situation where there's an intense

5312
01:17:37,670 --> 01:17:37,680
situation where there's an intense
 

5313
01:17:37,680 --> 01:17:39,710
situation where there's an intense
concentration of power. So, in addition

5314
01:17:39,710 --> 01:17:39,720
concentration of power. So, in addition
 

5315
01:17:39,720 --> 01:17:40,870
concentration of power. So, in addition
to these

5316
01:17:40,870 --> 01:17:40,880
to these
 

5317
01:17:40,880 --> 01:17:43,390
to these
the transparency and the slowdown,

5318
01:17:43,390 --> 01:17:43,400
the transparency and the slowdown,
 

5319
01:17:43,400 --> 01:17:44,670
the transparency and the slowdown,
we actually think it's actively good for

5320
01:17:44,670 --> 01:17:44,680
we actually think it's actively good for
 

5321
01:17:44,680 --> 01:17:46,630
we actually think it's actively good for
there to be multiple AI companies

5322
01:17:46,630 --> 01:17:46,640
there to be multiple AI companies
 

5323
01:17:46,640 --> 01:17:48,430
there to be multiple AI companies
across multiple different countries that

5324
01:17:48,430 --> 01:17:48,440
across multiple different countries that
 

5325
01:17:48,440 --> 01:17:50,430
across multiple different countries that
have similar levels of very advanced AI

5326
01:17:50,430 --> 01:17:50,440
have similar levels of very advanced AI
 

5327
01:17:50,440 --> 01:17:52,990
have similar levels of very advanced AI
capability and for there to be like

5328
01:17:52,990 --> 01:17:53,000
capability and for there to be like
 

5329
01:17:53,000 --> 01:17:55,990
capability and for there to be like
broad diffusion of AI into society

5330
01:17:55,990 --> 01:17:56,000
broad diffusion of AI into society
 

5331
01:17:56,000 --> 01:17:57,790
broad diffusion of AI into society
rather than, you know, a single mega

5332
01:17:57,790 --> 01:17:57,800
rather than, you know, a single mega
 

5333
01:17:57,800 --> 01:17:59,550
rather than, you know, a single mega
project that has all the best AIs, for

5334
01:17:59,550 --> 01:17:59,560
project that has all the best AIs, for
 

5335
01:17:59,560 --> 01:18:01,070
project that has all the best AIs, for
example. And the another thing about

5336
01:18:01,070 --> 01:18:01,080
example. And the another thing about
 

5337
01:18:01,080 --> 01:18:02,550
example. And the another thing about
that is you kind of get that by default

5338
01:18:02,550 --> 01:18:02,560
that is you kind of get that by default
 

5339
01:18:02,560 --> 01:18:04,270
that is you kind of get that by default
if you do the first two things. If you

5340
01:18:04,270 --> 01:18:04,280
if you do the first two things. If you
 

5341
01:18:04,280 --> 01:18:05,790
if you do the first two things. If you
slow it down and if you make it more

5342
01:18:05,790 --> 01:18:05,800
slow it down and if you make it more
 

5343
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:07,430
slow it down and if you make it more
transparent, then that means there's

5344
01:18:07,430 --> 01:18:07,440
transparent, then that means there's
 

5345
01:18:07,440 --> 01:18:08,790
transparent, then that means there's
breathing room

5346
01:18:08,790 --> 01:18:08,800
breathing room
 

5347
01:18:08,800 --> 01:18:10,990
breathing room
for other projects to sort of catch up,

5348
01:18:10,990 --> 01:18:11,000
for other projects to sort of catch up,
 

5349
01:18:11,000 --> 01:18:12,910
for other projects to sort of catch up,
right? And the transparency just like

5350
01:18:12,910 --> 01:18:12,920
right? And the transparency just like
 

5351
01:18:12,920 --> 01:18:14,150
right? And the transparency just like
literally helps them catch up because

5352
01:18:14,150 --> 01:18:14,160
literally helps them catch up because
 

5353
01:18:14,160 --> 01:18:15,750
literally helps them catch up because
then they can like copy

5354
01:18:15,750 --> 01:18:15,760
then they can like copy
 

5355
01:18:15,760 --> 01:18:17,030
then they can like copy
copy some of the ideas. And then I think

5356
01:18:17,030 --> 01:18:17,040
copy some of the ideas. And then I think
 

5357
01:18:17,040 --> 01:18:19,710
copy some of the ideas. And then I think
the fourth thing would be reversibility.

5358
01:18:19,710 --> 01:18:19,720
the fourth thing would be reversibility.
 

5359
01:18:19,720 --> 01:18:22,550
the fourth thing would be reversibility.
So, in what follows in the scenario, we

5360
01:18:22,550 --> 01:18:22,560
So, in what follows in the scenario, we
 

5361
01:18:22,560 --> 01:18:23,870
So, in what follows in the scenario, we
are going to be building up a lot of

5362
01:18:23,870 --> 01:18:23,880
are going to be building up a lot of
 

5363
01:18:23,880 --> 01:18:25,510
are going to be building up a lot of
data centers, a lot of robots. We're

5364
01:18:25,510 --> 01:18:25,520
data centers, a lot of robots. We're
 

5365
01:18:25,520 --> 01:18:27,270
data centers, a lot of robots. We're
going to be transforming the world at a

5366
01:18:27,270 --> 01:18:27,280
going to be transforming the world at a
 

5367
01:18:27,280 --> 01:18:29,230
going to be transforming the world at a
at a sort of like slower pace, though

5368
01:18:29,230 --> 01:18:29,240
at a sort of like slower pace, though
 

5369
01:18:29,240 --> 01:18:32,110
at a sort of like slower pace, though
still a very fast pace, but slower. And

5370
01:18:32,110 --> 01:18:32,120
still a very fast pace, but slower. And
 

5371
01:18:32,120 --> 01:18:34,110
still a very fast pace, but slower. And
if things go wrong and the deal breaks

5372
01:18:34,110 --> 01:18:34,120
if things go wrong and the deal breaks
 

5373
01:18:34,120 --> 01:18:35,830
if things go wrong and the deal breaks
down and everyone starts racing each

5374
01:18:35,830 --> 01:18:35,840
down and everyone starts racing each
 

5375
01:18:35,840 --> 01:18:37,670
down and everyone starts racing each
other again to get to super intelligence

5376
01:18:37,670 --> 01:18:37,680
other again to get to super intelligence
 

5377
01:18:37,680 --> 01:18:39,750
other again to get to super intelligence
as fast as possible.

5378
01:18:39,750 --> 01:18:39,760
as fast as possible.
 

5379
01:18:39,760 --> 01:18:41,910
as fast as possible.
That would be very scary. And so, the

5380
01:18:41,910 --> 01:18:41,920
That would be very scary. And so, the
 

5381
01:18:41,920 --> 01:18:44,070
That would be very scary. And so, the
fourth principle is basically build the

5382
01:18:44,070 --> 01:18:44,080
fourth principle is basically build the
 

5383
01:18:44,080 --> 01:18:46,150
fourth principle is basically build the
new data centers in such a way that if

5384
01:18:46,150 --> 01:18:46,160
new data centers in such a way that if
 

5385
01:18:46,160 --> 01:18:47,230
new data centers in such a way that if
everything

5386
01:18:47,230 --> 01:18:47,240
everything
 

5387
01:18:47,240 --> 01:18:48,390
everything
breaks down and everyone starts racing

5388
01:18:48,390 --> 01:18:48,400
breaks down and everyone starts racing
 

5389
01:18:48,400 --> 01:18:50,390
breaks down and everyone starts racing
again, the newly built data centers get

5390
01:18:50,390 --> 01:18:50,400
again, the newly built data centers get
 

5391
01:18:50,400 --> 01:18:52,110
again, the newly built data centers get
destroyed so that we're sort of back to

5392
01:18:52,110 --> 01:18:52,120
destroyed so that we're sort of back to
 

5393
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:54,590
destroyed so that we're sort of back to
square one again instead of in an even

5394
01:18:54,590 --> 01:18:54,600
square one again instead of in an even
 

5395
01:18:54,600 --> 01:18:56,470
square one again instead of in an even
worse race where there's even more AIs

5396
01:18:56,470 --> 01:18:56,480
worse race where there's even more AIs
 

5397
01:18:56,480 --> 01:18:59,150
worse race where there's even more AIs
and robots and compute everywhere. Um

5398
01:18:59,150 --> 01:18:59,160
and robots and compute everywhere. Um
 

5399
01:18:59,160 --> 01:19:00,750
and robots and compute everywhere. Um
So, I can sort of walk you through the

5400
01:19:00,750 --> 01:19:00,760
So, I can sort of walk you through the
 

5401
01:19:00,760 --> 01:19:02,350
So, I can sort of walk you through the
timeline if you're interested. Sure. Or

5402
01:19:02,350 --> 01:19:02,360
timeline if you're interested. Sure. Or
 

5403
01:19:02,360 --> 01:19:04,110
timeline if you're interested. Sure. Or
the president talks to China, talks to

5404
01:19:04,110 --> 01:19:04,120
the president talks to China, talks to
 

5405
01:19:04,120 --> 01:19:04,990
the president talks to China, talks to
the leaders of a bunch of other

5406
01:19:04,990 --> 01:19:05,000
the leaders of a bunch of other
 

5407
01:19:05,000 --> 01:19:06,030
the leaders of a bunch of other
countries

5408
01:19:06,030 --> 01:19:06,040
countries
 

5409
01:19:06,040 --> 01:19:07,510
countries
and says

5410
01:19:07,510 --> 01:19:07,520
and says
 

5411
01:19:07,520 --> 01:19:09,110
and says
we're going to basically

5412
01:19:09,110 --> 01:19:09,120
we're going to basically
 

5413
01:19:09,120 --> 01:19:10,630
we're going to basically
halt AI development until we can figure

5414
01:19:10,630 --> 01:19:10,640
halt AI development until we can figure
 

5415
01:19:10,640 --> 01:19:12,870
halt AI development until we can figure
out a a plan for how to do it in the way

5416
01:19:12,870 --> 01:19:12,880
out a a plan for how to do it in the way
 

5417
01:19:12,880 --> 01:19:14,590
out a a plan for how to do it in the way
in the ways that achieve these goals.

5418
01:19:14,590 --> 01:19:14,600
in the ways that achieve these goals.
 

5419
01:19:14,600 --> 01:19:17,750
in the ways that achieve these goals.
So, they basically send inspectors to

5420
01:19:17,750 --> 01:19:17,760
So, they basically send inspectors to
 

5421
01:19:17,760 --> 01:19:19,230
So, they basically send inspectors to
each other's data centers. Like Chinese

5422
01:19:19,230 --> 01:19:19,240
each other's data centers. Like Chinese
 

5423
01:19:19,240 --> 01:19:20,590
each other's data centers. Like Chinese
inspectors come to US data centers, US

5424
01:19:20,590 --> 01:19:20,600
inspectors come to US data centers, US
 

5425
01:19:20,600 --> 01:19:22,230
inspectors come to US data centers, US
inspectors go to Chinese data centers

5426
01:19:22,230 --> 01:19:22,240
inspectors go to Chinese data centers
 

5427
01:19:22,240 --> 01:19:24,590
inspectors go to Chinese data centers
and verify that they are doing inference

5428
01:19:24,590 --> 01:19:24,600
and verify that they are doing inference
 

5429
01:19:24,600 --> 01:19:27,110
and verify that they are doing inference
and not training. Developing new AIs,

5430
01:19:27,110 --> 01:19:27,120
and not training. Developing new AIs,
 

5431
01:19:27,120 --> 01:19:30,230
and not training. Developing new AIs,
that's that involves training them. But,

5432
01:19:30,230 --> 01:19:30,240
that's that involves training them. But,
 

5433
01:19:30,240 --> 01:19:32,230
that's that involves training them. But,
just taking existing AIs and using them

5434
01:19:32,230 --> 01:19:32,240
just taking existing AIs and using them
 

5435
01:19:32,240 --> 01:19:34,230
just taking existing AIs and using them
to serve customers, that's called

5436
01:19:34,230 --> 01:19:34,240
to serve customers, that's called
 

5437
01:19:34,240 --> 01:19:35,350
to serve customers, that's called
inference.

5438
01:19:35,350 --> 01:19:35,360
inference.
 

5439
01:19:35,360 --> 01:19:37,590
inference.
And so, the sort of like solution they

5440
01:19:37,590 --> 01:19:37,600
And so, the sort of like solution they
 

5441
01:19:37,600 --> 01:19:39,750
And so, the sort of like solution they
come up with here in this scenario is

5442
01:19:39,750 --> 01:19:39,760
come up with here in this scenario is
 

5443
01:19:39,760 --> 01:19:41,110
come up with here in this scenario is
we'll allow them to keep doing inference

5444
01:19:41,110 --> 01:19:41,120
we'll allow them to keep doing inference
 

5445
01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:43,390
we'll allow them to keep doing inference
but not training for now until we can

5446
01:19:43,390 --> 01:19:43,400
but not training for now until we can
 

5447
01:19:43,400 --> 01:19:45,470
but not training for now until we can
get the new training data centers set

5448
01:19:45,470 --> 01:19:45,480
get the new training data centers set
 

5449
01:19:45,480 --> 01:19:48,790
get the new training data centers set
up. So, they retrofit the existing data

5450
01:19:48,790 --> 01:19:48,800
up. So, they retrofit the existing data
 

5451
01:19:48,800 --> 01:19:50,510
up. So, they retrofit the existing data
centers to serve inference. People can

5452
01:19:50,510 --> 01:19:50,520
centers to serve inference. People can
 

5453
01:19:50,520 --> 01:19:52,270
centers to serve inference. People can
still keep talking to their AI agents

5454
01:19:52,270 --> 01:19:52,280
still keep talking to their AI agents
 

5455
01:19:52,280 --> 01:19:54,030
still keep talking to their AI agents
but they're going to stop getting better

5456
01:19:54,030 --> 01:19:54,040
but they're going to stop getting better
 

5457
01:19:54,040 --> 01:19:55,310
but they're going to stop getting better
and better

5458
01:19:55,310 --> 01:19:55,320
and better
 

5459
01:19:55,320 --> 01:19:57,670
and better
for like 6 months to a year while they

5460
01:19:57,670 --> 01:19:57,680
for like 6 months to a year while they
 

5461
01:19:57,680 --> 01:19:58,990
for like 6 months to a year while they
build the new data centers that are

5462
01:19:58,990 --> 01:19:59,000
build the new data centers that are
 

5463
01:19:59,000 --> 01:20:00,310
build the new data centers that are
going to be the transparent data

5464
01:20:00,310 --> 01:20:00,320
going to be the transparent data
 

5465
01:20:00,320 --> 01:20:01,790
going to be the transparent data
centers. And that's where the training's

5466
01:20:01,790 --> 01:20:01,800
centers. And that's where the training's
 

5467
01:20:01,800 --> 01:20:02,990
centers. And that's where the training's
going to happen.

5468
01:20:02,990 --> 01:20:03,000
going to happen.
 

5469
01:20:03,000 --> 01:20:04,670
going to happen.
Once they get those new data centers set

5470
01:20:04,670 --> 01:20:04,680
Once they get those new data centers set
 

5471
01:20:04,680 --> 01:20:06,510
Once they get those new data centers set
up in 2030,

5472
01:20:06,510 --> 01:20:06,520
up in 2030,
 

5473
01:20:06,520 --> 01:20:08,670
up in 2030,
then AI research continues. This is a

5474
01:20:08,670 --> 01:20:08,680
then AI research continues. This is a
 

5475
01:20:08,680 --> 01:20:10,230
then AI research continues. This is a
bit spicy. We advocate for total

5476
01:20:10,230 --> 01:20:10,240
bit spicy. We advocate for total
 

5477
01:20:10,240 --> 01:20:12,190
bit spicy. We advocate for total
research transparency, which means that

5478
01:20:12,190 --> 01:20:12,200
research transparency, which means that
 

5479
01:20:12,200 --> 01:20:13,470
research transparency, which means that
on the training data centers that are

5480
01:20:13,470 --> 01:20:13,480
on the training data centers that are
 

5481
01:20:13,480 --> 01:20:15,070
on the training data centers that are
training the new models,

5482
01:20:15,070 --> 01:20:15,080
training the new models,
 

5483
01:20:15,080 --> 01:20:16,190
training the new models,
they basically have to publish

5484
01:20:16,190 --> 01:20:16,200
they basically have to publish
 

5485
01:20:16,200 --> 01:20:17,190
they basically have to publish
everything.

5486
01:20:17,190 --> 01:20:17,200
everything.
 

5487
01:20:17,200 --> 01:20:18,350
everything.
Which means you get to see all the

5488
01:20:18,350 --> 01:20:18,360
Which means you get to see all the
 

5489
01:20:18,360 --> 01:20:19,870
Which means you get to see all the
details of the recipes for training

5490
01:20:19,870 --> 01:20:19,880
details of the recipes for training
 

5491
01:20:19,880 --> 01:20:20,710
details of the recipes for training
these models. You get to see the

5492
01:20:20,710 --> 01:20:20,720
these models. You get to see the
 

5493
01:20:20,720 --> 01:20:23,150
these models. You get to see the
architectures, etc. We think that's sort

5494
01:20:23,150 --> 01:20:23,160
architectures, etc. We think that's sort
 

5495
01:20:23,160 --> 01:20:25,830
architectures, etc. We think that's sort
of open science is really important for

5496
01:20:25,830 --> 01:20:25,840
of open science is really important for
 

5497
01:20:25,840 --> 01:20:27,150
of open science is really important for
solving the alignment problem fast

5498
01:20:27,150 --> 01:20:27,160
solving the alignment problem fast
 

5499
01:20:27,160 --> 01:20:28,190
solving the alignment problem fast
enough because you don't want to have to

5500
01:20:28,190 --> 01:20:28,200
enough because you don't want to have to
 

5501
01:20:28,200 --> 01:20:30,430
enough because you don't want to have to
sort of biased companies making the

5502
01:20:30,430 --> 01:20:30,440
sort of biased companies making the
 

5503
01:20:30,440 --> 01:20:32,390
sort of biased companies making the
decisions about whether the AIs are

5504
01:20:32,390 --> 01:20:32,400
decisions about whether the AIs are
 

5505
01:20:32,400 --> 01:20:34,710
decisions about whether the AIs are
safe. Um and we also think it's

5506
01:20:34,710 --> 01:20:34,720
safe. Um and we also think it's
 

5507
01:20:34,720 --> 01:20:36,510
safe. Um and we also think it's
important for just good regulations more

5508
01:20:36,510 --> 01:20:36,520
important for just good regulations more
 

5509
01:20:36,520 --> 01:20:38,710
important for just good regulations more
generally because right now most of the

5510
01:20:38,710 --> 01:20:38,720
generally because right now most of the
 

5511
01:20:38,720 --> 01:20:40,750
generally because right now most of the
expertise in the world on AI is sort of

5512
01:20:40,750 --> 01:20:40,760
expertise in the world on AI is sort of
 

5513
01:20:40,760 --> 01:20:42,790
expertise in the world on AI is sort of
concentrated in Silicon Valley and the

5514
01:20:42,790 --> 01:20:42,800
concentrated in Silicon Valley and the
 

5515
01:20:42,800 --> 01:20:45,190
concentrated in Silicon Valley and the
the governments in particular kind of

5516
01:20:45,190 --> 01:20:45,200
the governments in particular kind of
 

5517
01:20:45,200 --> 01:20:47,790
the governments in particular kind of
are don't really understand AI that well

5518
01:20:47,790 --> 01:20:47,800
are don't really understand AI that well
 

5519
01:20:47,800 --> 01:20:49,750
are don't really understand AI that well
and imagine an alternative instead of

5520
01:20:49,750 --> 01:20:49,760
and imagine an alternative instead of
 

5521
01:20:49,760 --> 01:20:51,910
and imagine an alternative instead of
total research transparency you had like

5522
01:20:51,910 --> 01:20:51,920
total research transparency you had like
 

5523
01:20:51,920 --> 01:20:53,470
total research transparency you had like
an auditor system where the government

5524
01:20:53,470 --> 01:20:53,480
an auditor system where the government
 

5525
01:20:53,480 --> 01:20:56,150
an auditor system where the government
says here are some rules for how to make

5526
01:20:56,150 --> 01:20:56,160
says here are some rules for how to make
 

5527
01:20:56,160 --> 01:20:57,630
says here are some rules for how to make
the AI safe

5528
01:20:57,630 --> 01:20:57,640
the AI safe
 

5529
01:20:57,640 --> 01:20:58,630
the AI safe
and then we're going to have like an

5530
01:20:58,630 --> 01:20:58,640
and then we're going to have like an
 

5531
01:20:58,640 --> 01:21:01,070
and then we're going to have like an
agency that like goes into the companies

5532
01:21:01,070 --> 01:21:01,080
agency that like goes into the companies
 

5533
01:21:01,080 --> 01:21:02,350
agency that like goes into the companies
and ask them questions and tries to make

5534
01:21:02,350 --> 01:21:02,360
and ask them questions and tries to make
 

5535
01:21:02,360 --> 01:21:03,750
and ask them questions and tries to make
sure that they're following the rules.

5536
01:21:03,750 --> 01:21:03,760
sure that they're following the rules.
 

5537
01:21:03,760 --> 01:21:04,990
sure that they're following the rules.
That creates this sort of adversarial

5538
01:21:04,990 --> 01:21:05,000
That creates this sort of adversarial
 

5539
01:21:05,000 --> 01:21:06,230
That creates this sort of adversarial
dynamic where the company is

5540
01:21:06,230 --> 01:21:06,240
dynamic where the company is
 

5541
01:21:06,240 --> 01:21:08,990
dynamic where the company is
incentivized to like fool the the

5542
01:21:08,990 --> 01:21:09,000
incentivized to like fool the the
 

5543
01:21:09,000 --> 01:21:10,710
incentivized to like fool the the
regulator, you [clears throat] know, and

5544
01:21:10,710 --> 01:21:10,720
regulator, you [clears throat] know, and
 

5545
01:21:10,720 --> 01:21:12,670
regulator, you [clears throat] know, and
and also if they if they discover some

5546
01:21:12,670 --> 01:21:12,680
and also if they if they discover some
 

5547
01:21:12,680 --> 01:21:14,110
and also if they if they discover some
new problem that's not even on the

5548
01:21:14,110 --> 01:21:14,120
new problem that's not even on the
 

5549
01:21:14,120 --> 01:21:15,470
new problem that's not even on the
government's radar

5550
01:21:15,470 --> 01:21:15,480
government's radar
 

5551
01:21:15,480 --> 01:21:16,870
government's radar
they might be incentivized to like not

5552
01:21:16,870 --> 01:21:16,880
they might be incentivized to like not
 

5553
01:21:16,880 --> 01:21:18,630
they might be incentivized to like not
tell the government about it, right? So

5554
01:21:18,630 --> 01:21:18,640
tell the government about it, right? So
 

5555
01:21:18,640 --> 01:21:19,830
tell the government about it, right? So
if you have the total transparency it

5556
01:21:19,830 --> 01:21:19,840
if you have the total transparency it
 

5557
01:21:19,840 --> 01:21:20,910
if you have the total transparency it
helps the government make better

5558
01:21:20,910 --> 01:21:20,920
helps the government make better
 

5559
01:21:20,920 --> 01:21:22,470
helps the government make better
decisions faster.

5560
01:21:22,470 --> 01:21:22,480
decisions faster.
 

5561
01:21:22,480 --> 01:21:24,470
decisions faster.
>> But it kills that competitive advantage.

5562
01:21:24,470 --> 01:21:24,480
>> But it kills that competitive advantage.
 

5563
01:21:24,480 --> 01:21:26,790
>> But it kills that competitive advantage.
>> Yes. Prophetic's not going to like this,

5564
01:21:26,790 --> 01:21:26,800
>> Yes. Prophetic's not going to like this,
 

5565
01:21:26,800 --> 01:21:27,950
>> Yes. Prophetic's not going to like this,
you know, OpenAI's not going to like

5566
01:21:27,950 --> 01:21:27,960
you know, OpenAI's not going to like
 

5567
01:21:27,960 --> 01:21:29,750
you know, OpenAI's not going to like
this. This would be

5568
01:21:29,750 --> 01:21:29,760
this. This would be
 

5569
01:21:29,760 --> 01:21:31,350
this. This would be
probably bad for the valuations. I don't

5570
01:21:31,350 --> 01:21:31,360
probably bad for the valuations. I don't
 

5571
01:21:31,360 --> 01:21:33,670
probably bad for the valuations. I don't
think it would kill them completely but

5572
01:21:33,670 --> 01:21:33,680
think it would kill them completely but
 

5573
01:21:33,680 --> 01:21:35,430
think it would kill them completely but
it means that it would commoditize more,

5574
01:21:35,430 --> 01:21:35,440
it means that it would commoditize more,
 

5575
01:21:35,440 --> 01:21:37,110
it means that it would commoditize more,
right? So it means that there'd be like

5576
01:21:37,110 --> 01:21:37,120
right? So it means that there'd be like
 

5577
01:21:37,120 --> 01:21:38,510
right? So it means that there'd be like
a bunch of AI companies that would catch

5578
01:21:38,510 --> 01:21:38,520
a bunch of AI companies that would catch
 

5579
01:21:38,520 --> 01:21:40,590
a bunch of AI companies that would catch
up to the frontier, they would train AIs

5580
01:21:40,590 --> 01:21:40,600
up to the frontier, they would train AIs
 

5581
01:21:40,600 --> 01:21:42,270
up to the frontier, they would train AIs
that are like roughly similar, roughly

5582
01:21:42,270 --> 01:21:42,280
that are like roughly similar, roughly
 

5583
01:21:42,280 --> 01:21:44,190
that are like roughly similar, roughly
equivalent. They could still make money

5584
01:21:44,190 --> 01:21:44,200
equivalent. They could still make money
 

5585
01:21:44,200 --> 01:21:46,910
equivalent. They could still make money
by doing that and then selling their AIs

5586
01:21:46,910 --> 01:21:46,920
by doing that and then selling their AIs
 

5587
01:21:46,920 --> 01:21:48,430
by doing that and then selling their AIs
but they wouldn't have a monopoly, they

5588
01:21:48,430 --> 01:21:48,440
but they wouldn't have a monopoly, they
 

5589
01:21:48,440 --> 01:21:49,270
but they wouldn't have a monopoly, they
wouldn't have anything close to a

5590
01:21:49,270 --> 01:21:49,280
wouldn't have anything close to a
 

5591
01:21:49,280 --> 01:21:50,830
wouldn't have anything close to a
monopoly which I think is good for

5592
01:21:50,830 --> 01:21:50,840
monopoly which I think is good for
 

5593
01:21:50,840 --> 01:21:52,790
monopoly which I think is good for
humanity although it's bad for the

5594
01:21:52,790 --> 01:21:52,800
humanity although it's bad for the
 

5595
01:21:52,800 --> 01:21:53,830
humanity although it's bad for the
bottom line of those particular

5596
01:21:53,830 --> 01:21:53,840
bottom line of those particular
 

5597
01:21:53,840 --> 01:21:55,590
bottom line of those particular
companies. Notably it's good for the

5598
01:21:55,590 --> 01:21:55,600
companies. Notably it's good for the
 

5599
01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:56,870
companies. Notably it's good for the
bottom line of lots of other companies.

5600
01:21:56,870 --> 01:21:56,880
bottom line of lots of other companies.
 

5601
01:21:56,880 --> 01:21:58,870
bottom line of lots of other companies.
Like if you're a company that's behind

5602
01:21:58,870 --> 01:21:58,880
Like if you're a company that's behind
 

5603
01:21:58,880 --> 01:22:00,590
Like if you're a company that's behind
and you don't you're not Anthropic or

5604
01:22:00,590 --> 01:22:00,600
and you don't you're not Anthropic or
 

5605
01:22:00,600 --> 01:22:02,110
and you don't you're not Anthropic or
you're not OpenAI then you would love

5606
01:22:02,110 --> 01:22:02,120
you're not OpenAI then you would love
 

5607
01:22:02,120 --> 01:22:04,110
you're not OpenAI then you would love
this because this helps you catch up,

5608
01:22:04,110 --> 01:22:04,120
this because this helps you catch up,
 

5609
01:22:04,120 --> 01:22:06,190
this because this helps you catch up,
you know, or this this helps you to like

5610
01:22:06,190 --> 01:22:06,200
you know, or this this helps you to like
 

5611
01:22:06,200 --> 01:22:08,390
you know, or this this helps you to like
um capture more of the value from the

5612
01:22:08,390 --> 01:22:08,400
um capture more of the value from the
 

5613
01:22:08,400 --> 01:22:09,950
um capture more of the value from the
chips you're selling for example or from

5614
01:22:09,950 --> 01:22:09,960
chips you're selling for example or from
 

5615
01:22:09,960 --> 01:22:11,190
chips you're selling for example or from
the like downstream product that you're

5616
01:22:11,190 --> 01:22:11,200
the like downstream product that you're
 

5617
01:22:11,200 --> 01:22:11,710
the like downstream product that you're
making.

5618
01:22:11,710 --> 01:22:11,720
making.
 

5619
01:22:11,720 --> 01:22:15,270
making.
>> And by 2031 then you have 1/5 of all

5620
01:22:15,270 --> 01:22:15,280
>> And by 2031 then you have 1/5 of all
 

5621
01:22:15,280 --> 01:22:17,350
>> And by 2031 then you have 1/5 of all
cognitive labor done by AI.

5622
01:22:17,350 --> 01:22:17,360
cognitive labor done by AI.
 

5623
01:22:17,360 --> 01:22:19,590
cognitive labor done by AI.
>> Yeah, so what's happening here is that

5624
01:22:19,590 --> 01:22:19,600
>> Yeah, so what's happening here is that
 

5625
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:20,830
>> Yeah, so what's happening here is that
we're imagining that the government of

5626
01:22:20,830 --> 01:22:20,840
we're imagining that the government of
 

5627
01:22:20,840 --> 01:22:22,230
we're imagining that the government of
the United States and the government of

5628
01:22:22,230 --> 01:22:22,240
the United States and the government of
 

5629
01:22:22,240 --> 01:22:23,430
the United States and the government of
these other countries that are involved

5630
01:22:23,430 --> 01:22:23,440
these other countries that are involved
 

5631
01:22:23,440 --> 01:22:24,710
these other countries that are involved
in this agreement that are sort of

5632
01:22:24,710 --> 01:22:24,720
in this agreement that are sort of
 

5633
01:22:24,720 --> 01:22:26,750
in this agreement that are sort of
implementing similar regulations

5634
01:22:26,750 --> 01:22:26,760
implementing similar regulations
 

5635
01:22:26,760 --> 01:22:27,910
implementing similar regulations
um they don't have to be exactly the

5636
01:22:27,910 --> 01:22:27,920
um they don't have to be exactly the
 

5637
01:22:27,920 --> 01:22:28,910
um they don't have to be exactly the
same,

5638
01:22:28,910 --> 01:22:28,920
same,
 

5639
01:22:28,920 --> 01:22:30,070
same,
uh, but that's another thing that's nice

5640
01:22:30,070 --> 01:22:30,080
uh, but that's another thing that's nice
 

5641
01:22:30,080 --> 01:22:31,950
uh, but that's another thing that's nice
about the transparency is that if you

5642
01:22:31,950 --> 01:22:31,960
about the transparency is that if you
 

5643
01:22:31,960 --> 01:22:34,670
about the transparency is that if you
have this sort of transparency, then

5644
01:22:34,670 --> 01:22:34,680
have this sort of transparency, then
 

5645
01:22:34,680 --> 01:22:36,910
have this sort of transparency, then
if two governments are

5646
01:22:36,910 --> 01:22:36,920
if two governments are
 

5647
01:22:36,920 --> 01:22:38,430
if two governments are
implementing different regulations, like

5648
01:22:38,430 --> 01:22:38,440
implementing different regulations, like
 

5649
01:22:38,440 --> 01:22:39,910
implementing different regulations, like
if one of them is like

5650
01:22:39,910 --> 01:22:39,920
if one of them is like
 

5651
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:41,470
if one of them is like
telling their companies to go slower or

5652
01:22:41,470 --> 01:22:41,480
telling their companies to go slower or
 

5653
01:22:41,480 --> 01:22:43,030
telling their companies to go slower or
like banning more stuff than the other

5654
01:22:43,030 --> 01:22:43,040
like banning more stuff than the other
 

5655
01:22:43,040 --> 01:22:45,390
like banning more stuff than the other
one is, they can both see

5656
01:22:45,390 --> 01:22:45,400
one is, they can both see
 

5657
01:22:45,400 --> 01:22:45,710
one is, they can both see
>> Yeah.

5658
01:22:45,710 --> 01:22:45,720
>> Yeah.
 

5659
01:22:45,720 --> 01:22:46,790
>> Yeah.
>> like, "Oh, you're letting them do that

5660
01:22:46,790 --> 01:22:46,800
>> like, "Oh, you're letting them do that
 

5661
01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:47,910
>> like, "Oh, you're letting them do that
sort of thing?

5662
01:22:47,910 --> 01:22:47,920
sort of thing?
 

5663
01:22:47,920 --> 01:22:49,270
sort of thing?
And you're not? Like, maybe we should

5664
01:22:49,270 --> 01:22:49,280
And you're not? Like, maybe we should
 

5665
01:22:49,280 --> 01:22:51,190
And you're not? Like, maybe we should
let them do this, too, you know?" So, it

5666
01:22:51,190 --> 01:22:51,200
let them do this, too, you know?" So, it
 

5667
01:22:51,200 --> 01:22:53,830
let them do this, too, you know?" So, it
helps to sort of naturally equalize the

5668
01:22:53,830 --> 01:22:53,840
helps to sort of naturally equalize the
 

5669
01:22:53,840 --> 01:22:56,310
helps to sort of naturally equalize the
regulations to some extent without

5670
01:22:56,310 --> 01:22:56,320
regulations to some extent without
 

5671
01:22:56,320 --> 01:22:57,870
regulations to some extent without
having there to be a central power that

5672
01:22:57,870 --> 01:22:57,880
having there to be a central power that
 

5673
01:22:57,880 --> 01:22:59,030
having there to be a central power that
just gets to make regulations for

5674
01:22:59,030 --> 01:22:59,040
just gets to make regulations for
 

5675
01:22:59,040 --> 01:22:59,510
just gets to make regulations for
everybody.

5676
01:22:59,510 --> 01:22:59,520
everybody.
 

5677
01:22:59,520 --> 01:23:00,470
everybody.
>> Mhm.

5678
01:23:00,470 --> 01:23:00,480
>> Mhm.
 

5679
01:23:00,480 --> 01:23:01,950
>> Mhm.
>> So, anyhow, we're imagining that when

5680
01:23:01,950 --> 01:23:01,960
>> So, anyhow, we're imagining that when
 

5681
01:23:01,960 --> 01:23:03,230
>> So, anyhow, we're imagining that when
they when they get this transparency set

5682
01:23:03,230 --> 01:23:03,240
they when they get this transparency set
 

5683
01:23:03,240 --> 01:23:05,270
they when they get this transparency set
up, they basically agree to ban the

5684
01:23:05,270 --> 01:23:05,280
up, they basically agree to ban the
 

5685
01:23:05,280 --> 01:23:07,470
up, they basically agree to ban the
dangerous stuff, to allow the

5686
01:23:07,470 --> 01:23:07,480
dangerous stuff, to allow the
 

5687
01:23:07,480 --> 01:23:08,750
dangerous stuff, to allow the
not-so-dangerous stuff, and there's a

5688
01:23:08,750 --> 01:23:08,760
not-so-dangerous stuff, and there's a
 

5689
01:23:08,760 --> 01:23:10,230
not-so-dangerous stuff, and there's a
constant ongoing conversation about

5690
01:23:10,230 --> 01:23:10,240
constant ongoing conversation about
 

5691
01:23:10,240 --> 01:23:11,750
constant ongoing conversation about
like, "Well, what's dangerous and what's

5692
01:23:11,750 --> 01:23:11,760
like, "Well, what's dangerous and what's
 

5693
01:23:11,760 --> 01:23:12,830
like, "Well, what's dangerous and what's
not? What should we ban? What should we

5694
01:23:12,830 --> 01:23:12,840
not? What should we ban? What should we
 

5695
01:23:12,840 --> 01:23:14,470
not? What should we ban? What should we
allow? What about this country? What

5696
01:23:14,470 --> 01:23:14,480
allow? What about this country? What
 

5697
01:23:14,480 --> 01:23:15,990
allow? What about this country? What
about that country?" That conversation

5698
01:23:15,990 --> 01:23:16,000
about that country?" That conversation
 

5699
01:23:16,000 --> 01:23:17,950
about that country?" That conversation
evolves over time, but the gist of it

5700
01:23:17,950 --> 01:23:17,960
evolves over time, but the gist of it
 

5701
01:23:17,960 --> 01:23:19,390
evolves over time, but the gist of it
is, at least if they do it the way that

5702
01:23:19,390 --> 01:23:19,400
is, at least if they do it the way that
 

5703
01:23:19,400 --> 01:23:21,230
is, at least if they do it the way that
we recommend it, is that they don't do

5704
01:23:21,230 --> 01:23:21,240
we recommend it, is that they don't do
 

5705
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:22,550
we recommend it, is that they don't do
an intelligence explosion. They don't

5706
01:23:22,550 --> 01:23:22,560
an intelligence explosion. They don't
 

5707
01:23:22,560 --> 01:23:24,350
an intelligence explosion. They don't
let the AIs, you know, autonomously

5708
01:23:24,350 --> 01:23:24,360
let the AIs, you know, autonomously
 

5709
01:23:24,360 --> 01:23:26,830
let the AIs, you know, autonomously
self-improve. Instead,

5710
01:23:26,830 --> 01:23:26,840
self-improve. Instead,
 

5711
01:23:26,840 --> 01:23:29,710
self-improve. Instead,
they slowly and carefully scale up the

5712
01:23:29,710 --> 01:23:29,720
they slowly and carefully scale up the
 

5713
01:23:29,720 --> 01:23:31,550
they slowly and carefully scale up the
AIs that they currently have, and invest

5714
01:23:31,550 --> 01:23:31,560
AIs that they currently have, and invest
 

5715
01:23:31,560 --> 01:23:33,270
AIs that they currently have, and invest
lots into finding ways to make them more

5716
01:23:33,270 --> 01:23:33,280
lots into finding ways to make them more
 

5717
01:23:33,280 --> 01:23:34,510
lots into finding ways to make them more
interpretable,

5718
01:23:34,510 --> 01:23:34,520
interpretable,
 

5719
01:23:34,520 --> 01:23:36,350
interpretable,
uh, to make them more easy to control,

5720
01:23:36,350 --> 01:23:36,360
uh, to make them more easy to control,
 

5721
01:23:36,360 --> 01:23:37,590
uh, to make them more easy to control,
to understand better how they work, and

5722
01:23:37,590 --> 01:23:37,600
to understand better how they work, and
 

5723
01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:39,630
to understand better how they work, and
so forth. The result is that AI progress

5724
01:23:39,630 --> 01:23:39,640
so forth. The result is that AI progress
 

5725
01:23:39,640 --> 01:23:41,670
so forth. The result is that AI progress
continues, but it's

5726
01:23:41,670 --> 01:23:41,680
continues, but it's
 

5727
01:23:41,680 --> 01:23:43,470
continues, but it's
not quite as fast,

5728
01:23:43,470 --> 01:23:43,480
not quite as fast,
 

5729
01:23:43,480 --> 01:23:45,350
not quite as fast,
and it's much, much, much safer and more

5730
01:23:45,350 --> 01:23:45,360
and it's much, much, much safer and more
 

5731
01:23:45,360 --> 01:23:45,910
and it's much, much, much safer and more
transparent.

5732
01:23:45,910 --> 01:23:45,920
transparent.
 

5733
01:23:45,920 --> 01:23:47,390
transparent.
>> But still through these, you know, are

5734
01:23:47,390 --> 01:23:47,400
>> But still through these, you know, are
 

5735
01:23:47,400 --> 01:23:48,390
>> But still through these, you know, are
we seeing job disruptions?

5736
01:23:48,390 --> 01:23:48,400
we seeing job disruptions?
 

5737
01:23:48,400 --> 01:23:49,790
we seeing job disruptions?
>> continuing cuz they are building more

5738
01:23:49,790 --> 01:23:49,800
>> continuing cuz they are building more
 

5739
01:23:49,800 --> 01:23:51,790
>> continuing cuz they are building more
data centers, right? Like, this whole

5740
01:23:51,790 --> 01:23:51,800
data centers, right? Like, this whole
 

5741
01:23:51,800 --> 01:23:53,630
data centers, right? Like, this whole
time, they're building more and more

5742
01:23:53,630 --> 01:23:53,640
time, they're building more and more
 

5743
01:23:53,640 --> 01:23:55,550
time, they're building more and more
data centers, more and more chips, and

5744
01:23:55,550 --> 01:23:55,560
data centers, more and more chips, and
 

5745
01:23:55,560 --> 01:23:57,430
data centers, more and more chips, and
they're continuing to like

5746
01:23:57,430 --> 01:23:57,440
they're continuing to like
 

5747
01:23:57,440 --> 01:23:59,110
they're continuing to like
make there be a a larger and larger

5748
01:23:59,110 --> 01:23:59,120
make there be a a larger and larger
 

5749
01:23:59,120 --> 01:24:01,710
make there be a a larger and larger
population of AIs, so to speak, and that

5750
01:24:01,710 --> 01:24:01,720
population of AIs, so to speak, and that
 

5751
01:24:01,720 --> 01:24:04,070
population of AIs, so to speak, and that
causes this huge transformation over the

5752
01:24:04,070 --> 01:24:04,080
causes this huge transformation over the
 

5753
01:24:04,080 --> 01:24:05,910
causes this huge transformation over the
course of the 2030s. So, the big thing

5754
01:24:05,910 --> 01:24:05,920
course of the 2030s. So, the big thing
 

5755
01:24:05,920 --> 01:24:07,110
course of the 2030s. So, the big thing
that we sort of want people to take away

5756
01:24:07,110 --> 01:24:07,120
that we sort of want people to take away
 

5757
01:24:07,120 --> 01:24:09,710
that we sort of want people to take away
is that even if you heavily restrict AI

5758
01:24:09,710 --> 01:24:09,720
is that even if you heavily restrict AI
 

5759
01:24:09,720 --> 01:24:11,510
is that even if you heavily restrict AI
progress,

5760
01:24:11,510 --> 01:24:11,520
progress,
 

5761
01:24:11,520 --> 01:24:12,950
progress,
you still get this sort of crazy

5762
01:24:12,950 --> 01:24:12,960
you still get this sort of crazy
 

5763
01:24:12,960 --> 01:24:14,830
you still get this sort of crazy
transformation. Yeah, in this scenario,

5764
01:24:14,830 --> 01:24:14,840
transformation. Yeah, in this scenario,
 

5765
01:24:14,840 --> 01:24:16,230
transformation. Yeah, in this scenario,
they basically

5766
01:24:16,230 --> 01:24:16,240
they basically
 

5767
01:24:16,240 --> 01:24:17,470
they basically
allow progress to continue, but at a

5768
01:24:17,470 --> 01:24:17,480
allow progress to continue, but at a
 

5769
01:24:17,480 --> 01:24:20,790
allow progress to continue, but at a
slower, more safe pace here in 2030,

5770
01:24:20,790 --> 01:24:20,800
slower, more safe pace here in 2030,
 

5771
01:24:20,800 --> 01:24:22,550
slower, more safe pace here in 2030,
and then it as a result, it takes until

5772
01:24:22,550 --> 01:24:22,560
and then it as a result, it takes until
 

5773
01:24:22,560 --> 01:24:24,150
and then it as a result, it takes until
2035

5774
01:24:24,150 --> 01:24:24,160
2035
 

5775
01:24:24,160 --> 01:24:26,950
2035
to get to top expert level AI. So,

5776
01:24:26,950 --> 01:24:26,960
to get to top expert level AI. So,
 

5777
01:24:26,960 --> 01:24:28,350
to get to top expert level AI. So,
remember they were on track to do that

5778
01:24:28,350 --> 01:24:28,360
remember they were on track to do that
 

5779
01:24:28,360 --> 01:24:30,270
remember they were on track to do that
in 2030, but then sort of at the last

5780
01:24:30,270 --> 01:24:30,280
in 2030, but then sort of at the last
 

5781
01:24:30,280 --> 01:24:32,030
in 2030, but then sort of at the last
moment they stopped. But because they

5782
01:24:32,030 --> 01:24:32,040
moment they stopped. But because they
 

5783
01:24:32,040 --> 01:24:33,230
moment they stopped. But because they
were sort of so close to the last

5784
01:24:33,230 --> 01:24:33,240
were sort of so close to the last
 

5785
01:24:33,240 --> 01:24:35,790
were sort of so close to the last
moment, that means that like they can

5786
01:24:35,790 --> 01:24:35,800
moment, that means that like they can
 

5787
01:24:35,800 --> 01:24:36,830
moment, that means that like they can
sort of get there pretty soon if they

5788
01:24:36,830 --> 01:24:36,840
sort of get there pretty soon if they
 

5789
01:24:36,840 --> 01:24:38,630
sort of get there pretty soon if they
want to, and it's just a matter of like

5790
01:24:38,630 --> 01:24:38,640
want to, and it's just a matter of like
 

5791
01:24:38,640 --> 01:24:40,950
want to, and it's just a matter of like
how long they they allow it to go,

5792
01:24:40,950 --> 01:24:40,960
how long they they allow it to go,
 

5793
01:24:40,960 --> 01:24:42,510
how long they they allow it to go,
right? So, they sort of they sort of

5794
01:24:42,510 --> 01:24:42,520
right? So, they sort of they sort of
 

5795
01:24:42,520 --> 01:24:44,430
right? So, they sort of they sort of
slow it down, and spread it out,

5796
01:24:44,430 --> 01:24:44,440
slow it down, and spread it out,
 

5797
01:24:44,440 --> 01:24:46,910
slow it down, and spread it out,
leisurely arrive at this level after 5

5798
01:24:46,910 --> 01:24:46,920
leisurely arrive at this level after 5
 

5799
01:24:46,920 --> 01:24:49,070
leisurely arrive at this level after 5
years. By this point they've built up

5800
01:24:49,070 --> 01:24:49,080
years. By this point they've built up
 

5801
01:24:49,080 --> 01:24:50,270
years. By this point they've built up
massive amounts of data centers

5802
01:24:50,270 --> 01:24:50,280
massive amounts of data centers
 

5803
01:24:50,280 --> 01:24:51,430
massive amounts of data centers
everywhere. So, it's not just that the

5804
01:24:51,430 --> 01:24:51,440
everywhere. So, it's not just that the
 

5805
01:24:51,440 --> 01:24:54,590
everywhere. So, it's not just that the
AIs are smarter and able to do all the

5806
01:24:54,590 --> 01:24:54,600
AIs are smarter and able to do all the
 

5807
01:24:54,600 --> 01:24:55,710
AIs are smarter and able to do all the
things that humans can do, but also

5808
01:24:55,710 --> 01:24:55,720
things that humans can do, but also
 

5809
01:24:55,720 --> 01:24:57,350
things that humans can do, but also
there's a lot more of them. And there's

5810
01:24:57,350 --> 01:24:57,360
there's a lot more of them. And there's
 

5811
01:24:57,360 --> 01:24:59,550
there's a lot more of them. And there's
a lot of robots and so forth. So, by

5812
01:24:59,550 --> 01:24:59,560
a lot of robots and so forth. So, by
 

5813
01:24:59,560 --> 01:25:02,110
a lot of robots and so forth. So, by
this by this point you kind of have the

5814
01:25:02,110 --> 01:25:02,120
this by this point you kind of have the
 

5815
01:25:02,120 --> 01:25:03,350
this by this point you kind of have the
economy that a lot of people would have

5816
01:25:03,350 --> 01:25:03,360
economy that a lot of people would have
 

5817
01:25:03,360 --> 01:25:06,390
economy that a lot of people would have
imagined with AGI, where there's AIs,

5818
01:25:06,390 --> 01:25:06,400
imagined with AGI, where there's AIs,
 

5819
01:25:06,400 --> 01:25:07,910
imagined with AGI, where there's AIs,
there's lots of them, they're able to do

5820
01:25:07,910 --> 01:25:07,920
there's lots of them, they're able to do
 

5821
01:25:07,920 --> 01:25:09,430
there's lots of them, they're able to do
all sorts of jobs, there's robots,

5822
01:25:09,430 --> 01:25:09,440
all sorts of jobs, there's robots,
 

5823
01:25:09,440 --> 01:25:10,870
all sorts of jobs, there's robots,
there's lots of them, they're able to do

5824
01:25:10,870 --> 01:25:10,880
there's lots of them, they're able to do
 

5825
01:25:10,880 --> 01:25:12,310
there's lots of them, they're able to do
all sorts of physical work, and

5826
01:25:12,310 --> 01:25:12,320
all sorts of physical work, and
 

5827
01:25:12,320 --> 01:25:14,030
all sorts of physical work, and
basically the economy is being run by

5828
01:25:14,030 --> 01:25:14,040
basically the economy is being run by
 

5829
01:25:14,040 --> 01:25:15,230
basically the economy is being run by
these machines.

5830
01:25:15,230 --> 01:25:15,240
these machines.
 

5831
01:25:15,240 --> 01:25:16,950
these machines.
>> So, in 20

5832
01:25:16,950 --> 01:25:16,960
>> So, in 20
 

5833
01:25:16,960 --> 01:25:19,270
>> So, in 20
31, you you have the 1/5 of all

5834
01:25:19,270 --> 01:25:19,280
31, you you have the 1/5 of all
 

5835
01:25:19,280 --> 01:25:21,510
31, you you have the 1/5 of all
cognitive labor done by AI. In 2023, you

5836
01:25:21,510 --> 01:25:21,520
cognitive labor done by AI. In 2023, you
 

5837
01:25:21,520 --> 01:25:24,310
cognitive labor done by AI. In 2023, you
have 60 million AIs running at 100x

5838
01:25:24,310 --> 01:25:24,320
have 60 million AIs running at 100x
 

5839
01:25:24,320 --> 01:25:27,390
have 60 million AIs running at 100x
speed. In 2033,

5840
01:25:27,390 --> 01:25:27,400
speed. In 2033,
 

5841
01:25:27,400 --> 01:25:29,830
speed. In 2033,
there's cash dividends to all Americans.

5842
01:25:29,830 --> 01:25:29,840
there's cash dividends to all Americans.
 

5843
01:25:29,840 --> 01:25:30,470
there's cash dividends to all Americans.
>> Mhm.

5844
01:25:30,470 --> 01:25:30,480
>> Mhm.
 

5845
01:25:30,480 --> 01:25:32,870
>> Mhm.
>> Um I've got to

5846
01:25:32,870 --> 01:25:32,880
>> Um I've got to
 

5847
01:25:32,880 --> 01:25:35,350
>> Um I've got to
explain explain this to me.

5848
01:25:35,350 --> 01:25:35,360
explain explain this to me.
 

5849
01:25:35,360 --> 01:25:37,030
explain explain this to me.
>> Yeah, so if the AIs are going to be

5850
01:25:37,030 --> 01:25:37,040
>> Yeah, so if the AIs are going to be
 

5851
01:25:37,040 --> 01:25:39,470
>> Yeah, so if the AIs are going to be
taking people's jobs, then it's very

5852
01:25:39,470 --> 01:25:39,480
taking people's jobs, then it's very
 

5853
01:25:39,480 --> 01:25:40,870
taking people's jobs, then it's very
important that people not starve to

5854
01:25:40,870 --> 01:25:40,880
important that people not starve to
 

5855
01:25:40,880 --> 01:25:43,790
important that people not starve to
death, and still have money.

5856
01:25:43,790 --> 01:25:43,800
death, and still have money.
 

5857
01:25:43,800 --> 01:25:45,510
death, and still have money.
And if

5858
01:25:45,510 --> 01:25:45,520
And if
 

5859
01:25:45,520 --> 01:25:46,710
And if
companies are going to be using AIs and

5860
01:25:46,710 --> 01:25:46,720
companies are going to be using AIs and
 

5861
01:25:46,720 --> 01:25:48,030
companies are going to be using AIs and
robots to take all these jobs, then that

5862
01:25:48,030 --> 01:25:48,040
robots to take all these jobs, then that
 

5863
01:25:48,040 --> 01:25:49,470
robots to take all these jobs, then that
means that there needs to be some sort

5864
01:25:49,470 --> 01:25:49,480
means that there needs to be some sort
 

5865
01:25:49,480 --> 01:25:51,630
means that there needs to be some sort
of taxation scheme, or something, to

5866
01:25:51,630 --> 01:25:51,640
of taxation scheme, or something, to
 

5867
01:25:51,640 --> 01:25:52,510
of taxation scheme, or something, to
like

5868
01:25:52,510 --> 01:25:52,520
like
 

5869
01:25:52,520 --> 01:25:54,230
like
make sure that people still have a a

5870
01:25:54,230 --> 01:25:54,240
make sure that people still have a a
 

5871
01:25:54,240 --> 01:25:56,070
make sure that people still have a a
slice of that pie. Mhm. The pie is going

5872
01:25:56,070 --> 01:25:56,080
slice of that pie. Mhm. The pie is going
 

5873
01:25:56,080 --> 01:25:57,310
slice of that pie. Mhm. The pie is going
to grow huge, but you still need to

5874
01:25:57,310 --> 01:25:57,320
to grow huge, but you still need to
 

5875
01:25:57,320 --> 01:25:59,150
to grow huge, but you still need to
actually give people a slice of the pie.

5876
01:25:59,150 --> 01:25:59,160
actually give people a slice of the pie.
 

5877
01:25:59,160 --> 01:26:01,070
actually give people a slice of the pie.
And our proposal for how to do that, we

5878
01:26:01,070 --> 01:26:01,080
And our proposal for how to do that, we
 

5879
01:26:01,080 --> 01:26:04,350
And our proposal for how to do that, we
call it the citizens dividend, basically

5880
01:26:04,350 --> 01:26:04,360
call it the citizens dividend, basically
 

5881
01:26:04,360 --> 01:26:07,150
call it the citizens dividend, basically
people have shares in a agency that

5882
01:26:07,150 --> 01:26:07,160
people have shares in a agency that
 

5883
01:26:07,160 --> 01:26:10,070
people have shares in a agency that
sells permits to the robot companies,

5884
01:26:10,070 --> 01:26:10,080
sells permits to the robot companies,
 

5885
01:26:10,080 --> 01:26:12,510
sells permits to the robot companies,
and to the compute companies,

5886
01:26:12,510 --> 01:26:12,520
and to the compute companies,
 

5887
01:26:12,520 --> 01:26:14,390
and to the compute companies,
and makes profit from selling those

5888
01:26:14,390 --> 01:26:14,400
and makes profit from selling those
 

5889
01:26:14,400 --> 01:26:17,310
and makes profit from selling those
permits, and then those are people have

5890
01:26:17,310 --> 01:26:17,320
permits, and then those are people have
 

5891
01:26:17,320 --> 01:26:19,430
permits, and then those are people have
shares in that entity. It starts off

5892
01:26:19,430 --> 01:26:19,440
shares in that entity. It starts off
 

5893
01:26:19,440 --> 01:26:20,510
shares in that entity. It starts off
small. It starts off something like

5894
01:26:20,510 --> 01:26:20,520
small. It starts off something like
 

5895
01:26:20,520 --> 01:26:22,590
small. It starts off something like
$25,000 per person.

5896
01:26:22,590 --> 01:26:22,600
$25,000 per person.
 

5897
01:26:22,600 --> 01:26:24,550
$25,000 per person.
Uh and then by the end, it's something

5898
01:26:24,550 --> 01:26:24,560
Uh and then by the end, it's something
 

5899
01:26:24,560 --> 01:26:25,830
Uh and then by the end, it's something
like $10 million

5900
01:26:25,830 --> 01:26:25,840
like $10 million
 

5901
01:26:25,840 --> 01:26:26,470
like $10 million
per citizen.

5902
01:26:26,470 --> 01:26:26,480
per citizen.
 

5903
01:26:26,480 --> 01:26:27,150
per citizen.
>> per person?

5904
01:26:27,150 --> 01:26:27,160
>> per person?
 

5905
01:26:27,160 --> 01:26:28,990
>> per person?
>> Per person per year.

5906
01:26:28,990 --> 01:26:29,000
>> Per person per year.
 

5907
01:26:29,000 --> 01:26:30,870
>> Per person per year.
>> Factoring in inflation, like what you

5908
01:26:30,870 --> 01:26:30,880
>> Factoring in inflation, like what you
 

5909
01:26:30,880 --> 01:26:31,190
>> Factoring in inflation, like what you
mean?

5910
01:26:31,190 --> 01:26:31,200
mean?
 

5911
01:26:31,200 --> 01:26:31,830
mean?
>> in inflation.

5912
01:26:31,830 --> 01:26:31,840
>> in inflation.
 

5913
01:26:31,840 --> 01:26:32,430
>> in inflation.
>> So, we're going to be

5914
01:26:32,430 --> 01:26:32,440
>> So, we're going to be
 

5915
01:26:32,440 --> 01:26:33,630
>> So, we're going to be
multi-millionaires.

5916
01:26:33,630 --> 01:26:33,640
multi-millionaires.
 

5917
01:26:33,640 --> 01:26:36,510
multi-millionaires.
>> Yes, if this happens, which it probably

5918
01:26:36,510 --> 01:26:36,520
>> Yes, if this happens, which it probably
 

5919
01:26:36,520 --> 01:26:37,870
>> Yes, if this happens, which it probably
won't, but if it happens, this is where

5920
01:26:37,870 --> 01:26:37,880
won't, but if it happens, this is where
 

5921
01:26:37,880 --> 01:26:39,110
won't, but if it happens, this is where
it will go. And again, this is the thing

5922
01:26:39,110 --> 01:26:39,120
it will go. And again, this is the thing
 

5923
01:26:39,120 --> 01:26:40,630
it will go. And again, this is the thing
I want to emphasize is that if you get

5924
01:26:40,630 --> 01:26:40,640
I want to emphasize is that if you get
 

5925
01:26:40,640 --> 01:26:42,350
I want to emphasize is that if you get
to the point where your AIs are close to

5926
01:26:42,350 --> 01:26:42,360
to the point where your AIs are close to
 

5927
01:26:42,360 --> 01:26:43,950
to the point where your AIs are close to
being able to do

5928
01:26:43,950 --> 01:26:43,960
being able to do
 

5929
01:26:43,960 --> 01:26:45,790
being able to do
all the research, and then you sort of

5930
01:26:45,790 --> 01:26:45,800
all the research, and then you sort of
 

5931
01:26:45,800 --> 01:26:47,550
all the research, and then you sort of
pause and slow down,

5932
01:26:47,550 --> 01:26:47,560
pause and slow down,
 

5933
01:26:47,560 --> 01:26:49,190
pause and slow down,
that means that like you still have a

5934
01:26:49,190 --> 01:26:49,200
that means that like you still have a
 

5935
01:26:49,200 --> 01:26:50,390
that means that like you still have a
lot of transformation ahead of you

5936
01:26:50,390 --> 01:26:50,400
lot of transformation ahead of you
 

5937
01:26:50,400 --> 01:26:52,550
lot of transformation ahead of you
because if you allow those AIs to like

5938
01:26:52,550 --> 01:26:52,560
because if you allow those AIs to like
 

5939
01:26:52,560 --> 01:26:54,110
because if you allow those AIs to like
still proceed slowly and like start to

5940
01:26:54,110 --> 01:26:54,120
still proceed slowly and like start to
 

5941
01:26:54,120 --> 01:26:56,230
still proceed slowly and like start to
automate various jobs and so forth,

5942
01:26:56,230 --> 01:26:56,240
automate various jobs and so forth,
 

5943
01:26:56,240 --> 01:26:58,110
automate various jobs and so forth,
after some years, they will in fact have

5944
01:26:58,110 --> 01:26:58,120
after some years, they will in fact have
 

5945
01:26:58,120 --> 01:26:59,870
after some years, they will in fact have
done that. And

5946
01:26:59,870 --> 01:26:59,880
done that. And
 

5947
01:26:59,880 --> 01:27:01,430
done that. And
they will have, you know, built huge

5948
01:27:01,430 --> 01:27:01,440
they will have, you know, built huge
 

5949
01:27:01,440 --> 01:27:02,630
they will have, you know, built huge
amounts of new data centers, huge

5950
01:27:02,630 --> 01:27:02,640
amounts of new data centers, huge
 

5951
01:27:02,640 --> 01:27:04,430
amounts of new data centers, huge
amounts of new chip fabs, huge amounts

5952
01:27:04,430 --> 01:27:04,440
amounts of new chip fabs, huge amounts
 

5953
01:27:04,440 --> 01:27:06,910
amounts of new chip fabs, huge amounts
of new robots, robot factories, etc.

5954
01:27:06,910 --> 01:27:06,920
of new robots, robot factories, etc.
 

5955
01:27:06,920 --> 01:27:08,590
of new robots, robot factories, etc.
You know, we're not sure obviously how

5956
01:27:08,590 --> 01:27:08,600
You know, we're not sure obviously how
 

5957
01:27:08,600 --> 01:27:09,990
You know, we're not sure obviously how
fast this will go exactly, but we've

5958
01:27:09,990 --> 01:27:10,000
fast this will go exactly, but we've
 

5959
01:27:10,000 --> 01:27:11,350
fast this will go exactly, but we've
thought about it a lot and we have our

5960
01:27:11,350 --> 01:27:11,360
thought about it a lot and we have our
 

5961
01:27:11,360 --> 01:27:12,590
thought about it a lot and we have our
our guesses and this is sort of like our

5962
01:27:12,590 --> 01:27:12,600
our guesses and this is sort of like our
 

5963
01:27:12,600 --> 01:27:13,270
our guesses and this is sort of like our
median guess.

5964
01:27:13,270 --> 01:27:13,280
median guess.
 

5965
01:27:13,280 --> 01:27:15,150
median guess.
>> What does this mean, 2037? The

5966
01:27:15,150 --> 01:27:15,160
>> What does this mean, 2037? The
 

5967
01:27:15,160 --> 01:27:17,990
>> What does this mean, 2037? The
apocalyptic arrival of truth on Earth?

5968
01:27:17,990 --> 01:27:18,000
apocalyptic arrival of truth on Earth?
 

5969
01:27:18,000 --> 01:27:19,470
apocalyptic arrival of truth on Earth?
>> Yeah, so like

5970
01:27:19,470 --> 01:27:19,480
>> Yeah, so like
 

5971
01:27:19,480 --> 01:27:20,870
>> Yeah, so like
this is the point where we say they get

5972
01:27:20,870 --> 01:27:20,880
this is the point where we say they get
 

5973
01:27:20,880 --> 01:27:23,430
this is the point where we say they get
to top expert level AI. So,

5974
01:27:23,430 --> 01:27:23,440
to top expert level AI. So,
 

5975
01:27:23,440 --> 01:27:25,030
to top expert level AI. So,
it's not super intelligence in the sense

5976
01:27:25,030 --> 01:27:25,040
it's not super intelligence in the sense
 

5977
01:27:25,040 --> 01:27:26,870
it's not super intelligence in the sense
that it's not like vastly smarter than

5978
01:27:26,870 --> 01:27:26,880
that it's not like vastly smarter than
 

5979
01:27:26,880 --> 01:27:28,550
that it's not like vastly smarter than
humans at things because they

5980
01:27:28,550 --> 01:27:28,560
humans at things because they
 

5981
01:27:28,560 --> 01:27:30,030
humans at things because they
deliberately pause it at the level of

5982
01:27:30,030 --> 01:27:30,040
deliberately pause it at the level of
 

5983
01:27:30,040 --> 01:27:32,110
deliberately pause it at the level of
top experts. So, so here they're going

5984
01:27:32,110 --> 01:27:32,120
top experts. So, so here they're going
 

5985
01:27:32,120 --> 01:27:33,910
top experts. So, so here they're going
slow. Here they've just actually

5986
01:27:33,910 --> 01:27:33,920
slow. Here they've just actually
 

5987
01:27:33,920 --> 01:27:35,110
slow. Here they've just actually
stopped.

5988
01:27:35,110 --> 01:27:35,120
stopped.
 

5989
01:27:35,120 --> 01:27:36,350
stopped.
But they stopped at a point where the

5990
01:27:36,350 --> 01:27:36,360
But they stopped at a point where the
 

5991
01:27:36,360 --> 01:27:37,870
But they stopped at a point where the
AIs are just actually really good at

5992
01:27:37,870 --> 01:27:37,880
AIs are just actually really good at
 

5993
01:27:37,880 --> 01:27:39,830
AIs are just actually really good at
everything. So, kind of they've

5994
01:27:39,830 --> 01:27:39,840
everything. So, kind of they've
 

5995
01:27:39,840 --> 01:27:41,510
everything. So, kind of they've
definitely got AGI, maybe they got like

5996
01:27:41,510 --> 01:27:41,520
definitely got AGI, maybe they got like
 

5997
01:27:41,520 --> 01:27:43,430
definitely got AGI, maybe they got like
weak super intelligence.

5998
01:27:43,430 --> 01:27:43,440
weak super intelligence.
 

5999
01:27:43,440 --> 01:27:45,590
weak super intelligence.
Because they have so many these AIs and

6000
01:27:45,590 --> 01:27:45,600
Because they have so many these AIs and
 

6001
01:27:45,600 --> 01:27:47,310
Because they have so many these AIs and
because they think faster than humans,

6002
01:27:47,310 --> 01:27:47,320
because they think faster than humans,
 

6003
01:27:47,320 --> 01:27:49,550
because they think faster than humans,
you know, they just run much faster,

6004
01:27:49,550 --> 01:27:49,560
you know, they just run much faster,
 

6005
01:27:49,560 --> 01:27:50,870
you know, they just run much faster,
that's going to transform society

6006
01:27:50,870 --> 01:27:50,880
that's going to transform society
 

6007
01:27:50,880 --> 01:27:52,990
that's going to transform society
dramatically. So,

6008
01:27:52,990 --> 01:27:53,000
dramatically. So,
 

6009
01:27:53,000 --> 01:27:54,190
dramatically. So,
we talk about some of the ways in which

6010
01:27:54,190 --> 01:27:54,200
we talk about some of the ways in which
 

6011
01:27:54,200 --> 01:27:55,470
we talk about some of the ways in which
it transforms society. Like this is sort

6012
01:27:55,470 --> 01:27:55,480
it transforms society. Like this is sort
 

6013
01:27:55,480 --> 01:27:57,270
it transforms society. Like this is sort
of life after work. We talk about what

6014
01:27:57,270 --> 01:27:57,280
of life after work. We talk about what
 

6015
01:27:57,280 --> 01:27:58,390
of life after work. We talk about what
it would be like to be living on your

6016
01:27:58,390 --> 01:27:58,400
it would be like to be living on your
 

6017
01:27:58,400 --> 01:28:00,070
it would be like to be living on your
citizens citizens dividend and not have

6018
01:28:00,070 --> 01:28:00,080
citizens citizens dividend and not have
 

6019
01:28:00,080 --> 01:28:02,990
citizens citizens dividend and not have
a job anymore in this sort of world. Um

6020
01:28:02,990 --> 01:28:03,000
a job anymore in this sort of world. Um
 

6021
01:28:03,000 --> 01:28:04,790
a job anymore in this sort of world. Um
here we talk about all the scientific

6022
01:28:04,790 --> 01:28:04,800
here we talk about all the scientific
 

6023
01:28:04,800 --> 01:28:06,390
here we talk about all the scientific
changes and all the social changes that

6024
01:28:06,390 --> 01:28:06,400
changes and all the social changes that
 

6025
01:28:06,400 --> 01:28:09,230
changes and all the social changes that
would come from all of the

6026
01:28:09,230 --> 01:28:09,240
would come from all of the
 

6027
01:28:09,240 --> 01:28:10,710
would come from all of the
intellectual progress and activity that

6028
01:28:10,710 --> 01:28:10,720
intellectual progress and activity that
 

6029
01:28:10,720 --> 01:28:13,270
intellectual progress and activity that
would be generated by all of these AIs.

6030
01:28:13,270 --> 01:28:13,280
would be generated by all of these AIs.
 

6031
01:28:13,280 --> 01:28:14,390
would be generated by all of these AIs.
So,

6032
01:28:14,390 --> 01:28:14,400
So,
 

6033
01:28:14,400 --> 01:28:16,550
So,
for example, here is things like cancer

6034
01:28:16,550 --> 01:28:16,560
for example, here is things like cancer
 

6035
01:28:16,560 --> 01:28:18,910
for example, here is things like cancer
cures and like, you know, people living

6036
01:28:18,910 --> 01:28:18,920
cures and like, you know, people living
 

6037
01:28:18,920 --> 01:28:20,590
cures and like, you know, people living
in apartments that were built by robots

6038
01:28:20,590 --> 01:28:20,600
in apartments that were built by robots
 

6039
01:28:20,600 --> 01:28:22,190
in apartments that were built by robots
2 years ago.

6040
01:28:22,190 --> 01:28:22,200
2 years ago.
 

6041
01:28:22,200 --> 01:28:23,110
2 years ago.
>> Mhm.

6042
01:28:23,110 --> 01:28:23,120
>> Mhm.
 

6043
01:28:23,120 --> 01:28:25,710
>> Mhm.
>> Providing again we stop in 2029.

6044
01:28:25,710 --> 01:28:25,720
>> Providing again we stop in 2029.
 

6045
01:28:25,720 --> 01:28:25,990
>> Providing again we stop in 2029.
>> Yeah.

6046
01:28:25,990 --> 01:28:26,000
>> Yeah.
 

6047
01:28:26,000 --> 01:28:27,870
>> Yeah.
>> And providing, I mean, a conservative

6048
01:28:27,870 --> 01:28:27,880
>> And providing, I mean, a conservative
 

6049
01:28:27,880 --> 01:28:29,870
>> And providing, I mean, a conservative
This is a conservative time frame.

6050
01:28:29,870 --> 01:28:29,880
This is a conservative time frame.
 

6051
01:28:29,880 --> 01:28:31,550
This is a conservative time frame.
>> Yeah, like unfortunately, I actually

6052
01:28:31,550 --> 01:28:31,560
>> Yeah, like unfortunately, I actually
 

6053
01:28:31,560 --> 01:28:32,750
>> Yeah, like unfortunately, I actually
think that things will happen faster

6054
01:28:32,750 --> 01:28:32,760
think that things will happen faster
 

6055
01:28:32,760 --> 01:28:34,590
think that things will happen faster
than this by default and that if we

6056
01:28:34,590 --> 01:28:34,600
than this by default and that if we
 

6057
01:28:34,600 --> 01:28:35,830
than this by default and that if we
don't slow down, things will happen much

6058
01:28:35,830 --> 01:28:35,840
don't slow down, things will happen much
 

6059
01:28:35,840 --> 01:28:37,190
don't slow down, things will happen much
faster than this. Once you get to the

6060
01:28:37,190 --> 01:28:37,200
faster than this. Once you get to the
 

6061
01:28:37,200 --> 01:28:38,910
faster than this. Once you get to the
point where you've got, you know, a

6062
01:28:38,910 --> 01:28:38,920
point where you've got, you know, a
 

6063
01:28:38,920 --> 01:28:42,430
point where you've got, you know, a
billion AIs running day and night and

6064
01:28:42,430 --> 01:28:42,440
billion AIs running day and night and
 

6065
01:28:42,440 --> 01:28:43,590
billion AIs running day and night and
they're each better than the best humans

6066
01:28:43,590 --> 01:28:43,600
they're each better than the best humans
 

6067
01:28:43,600 --> 01:28:45,590
they're each better than the best humans
at everything and so they're doing a lot

6068
01:28:45,590 --> 01:28:45,600
at everything and so they're doing a lot
 

6069
01:28:45,600 --> 01:28:47,190
at everything and so they're doing a lot
of science, they're doing a lot of

6070
01:28:47,190 --> 01:28:47,200
of science, they're doing a lot of
 

6071
01:28:47,200 --> 01:28:48,310
of science, they're doing a lot of
talking to each other, they're doing a

6072
01:28:48,310 --> 01:28:48,320
talking to each other, they're doing a
 

6073
01:28:48,320 --> 01:28:50,110
talking to each other, they're doing a
lot of thinking, everyone's constantly

6074
01:28:50,110 --> 01:28:50,120
lot of thinking, everyone's constantly
 

6075
01:28:50,120 --> 01:28:51,470
lot of thinking, everyone's constantly
talking to their AI assistants and so

6076
01:28:51,470 --> 01:28:51,480
talking to their AI assistants and so
 

6077
01:28:51,480 --> 01:28:52,750
talking to their AI assistants and so
forth.

6078
01:28:52,750 --> 01:28:52,760
forth.
 

6079
01:28:52,760 --> 01:28:53,830
forth.
There's going to be a lot of scientific

6080
01:28:53,830 --> 01:28:53,840
There's going to be a lot of scientific
 

6081
01:28:53,840 --> 01:28:54,950
There's going to be a lot of scientific
progress. There's going to be a lot of

6082
01:28:54,950 --> 01:28:54,960
progress. There's going to be a lot of
 

6083
01:28:54,960 --> 01:28:58,470
progress. There's going to be a lot of
changes to politics, to ideologies. It's

6084
01:28:58,470 --> 01:28:58,480
changes to politics, to ideologies. It's
 

6085
01:28:58,480 --> 01:29:00,390
changes to politics, to ideologies. It's
going to be very disruptive and crazy

6086
01:29:00,390 --> 01:29:00,400
going to be very disruptive and crazy
 

6087
01:29:00,400 --> 01:29:02,230
going to be very disruptive and crazy
and we get into some of the ways in

6088
01:29:02,230 --> 01:29:02,240
and we get into some of the ways in
 

6089
01:29:02,240 --> 01:29:03,350
and we get into some of the ways in
which it is

6090
01:29:03,350 --> 01:29:03,360
which it is
 

6091
01:29:03,360 --> 01:29:04,910
which it is
uh later, basically.

6092
01:29:04,910 --> 01:29:04,920
uh later, basically.
 

6093
01:29:04,920 --> 01:29:06,350
uh later, basically.
>> I I'm still not super clear on what this

6094
01:29:06,350 --> 01:29:06,360
>> I I'm still not super clear on what this
 

6095
01:29:06,360 --> 01:29:08,070
>> I I'm still not super clear on what this
means, the apocalyptic arrival of truth

6096
01:29:08,070 --> 01:29:08,080
means, the apocalyptic arrival of truth
 

6097
01:29:08,080 --> 01:29:09,150
means, the apocalyptic arrival of truth
on Earth.

6098
01:29:09,150 --> 01:29:09,160
on Earth.
 

6099
01:29:09,160 --> 01:29:10,470
on Earth.
It's just It's just because there's so

6100
01:29:10,470 --> 01:29:10,480
It's just It's just because there's so
 

6101
01:29:10,480 --> 01:29:12,310
It's just It's just because there's so
many eyes AIs that are so smart that

6102
01:29:12,310 --> 01:29:12,320
many eyes AIs that are so smart that
 

6103
01:29:12,320 --> 01:29:13,430
many eyes AIs that are so smart that
they're uncovering making new

6104
01:29:13,430 --> 01:29:13,440
they're uncovering making new
 

6105
01:29:13,440 --> 01:29:15,270
they're uncovering making new
discoveries in sciences.

6106
01:29:15,270 --> 01:29:15,280
discoveries in sciences.
 

6107
01:29:15,280 --> 01:29:16,270
discoveries in sciences.
>> Let me give you an example, lie

6108
01:29:16,270 --> 01:29:16,280
>> Let me give you an example, lie
 

6109
01:29:16,280 --> 01:29:16,910
>> Let me give you an example, lie
detectors.

6110
01:29:16,910 --> 01:29:16,920
detectors.
 

6111
01:29:16,920 --> 01:29:17,430
detectors.
>> Yeah.

6112
01:29:17,430 --> 01:29:17,440
>> Yeah.
 

6113
01:29:17,440 --> 01:29:18,510
>> Yeah.
>> So,

6114
01:29:18,510 --> 01:29:18,520
>> So,
 

6115
01:29:18,520 --> 01:29:20,270
>> So,
that's an example of a a technology that

6116
01:29:20,270 --> 01:29:20,280
that's an example of a a technology that
 

6117
01:29:20,280 --> 01:29:21,430
that's an example of a a technology that
might be invented.

6118
01:29:21,430 --> 01:29:21,440
might be invented.
 

6119
01:29:21,440 --> 01:29:21,710
might be invented.
>> Yeah.

6120
01:29:21,710 --> 01:29:21,720
>> Yeah.
 

6121
01:29:21,720 --> 01:29:22,710
>> Yeah.
>> You know, right now we don't have good

6122
01:29:22,710 --> 01:29:22,720
>> You know, right now we don't have good
 

6123
01:29:22,720 --> 01:29:24,350
>> You know, right now we don't have good
lie detectors, we have very bad lie

6124
01:29:24,350 --> 01:29:24,360
lie detectors, we have very bad lie
 

6125
01:29:24,360 --> 01:29:25,710
lie detectors, we have very bad lie
detectors that like sort of work but

6126
01:29:25,710 --> 01:29:25,720
detectors that like sort of work but
 

6127
01:29:25,720 --> 01:29:28,110
detectors that like sort of work but
don't don't fully work. But once you've

6128
01:29:28,110 --> 01:29:28,120
don't don't fully work. But once you've
 

6129
01:29:28,120 --> 01:29:31,110
don't don't fully work. But once you've
had these top expert level AIs thinking

6130
01:29:31,110 --> 01:29:31,120
had these top expert level AIs thinking
 

6131
01:29:31,120 --> 01:29:33,750
had these top expert level AIs thinking
for many years at you know, 100x human

6132
01:29:33,750 --> 01:29:33,760
for many years at you know, 100x human
 

6133
01:29:33,760 --> 01:29:35,510
for many years at you know, 100x human
speed and there's billions of them and

6134
01:29:35,510 --> 01:29:35,520
speed and there's billions of them and
 

6135
01:29:35,520 --> 01:29:36,750
speed and there's billions of them and
they have access to robot factories to

6136
01:29:36,750 --> 01:29:36,760
they have access to robot factories to
 

6137
01:29:36,760 --> 01:29:38,510
they have access to robot factories to
do research and stuff,

6138
01:29:38,510 --> 01:29:38,520
do research and stuff,
 

6139
01:29:38,520 --> 01:29:39,270
do research and stuff,
they'll probably invent a ton of

6140
01:29:39,270 --> 01:29:39,280
they'll probably invent a ton of
 

6141
01:29:39,280 --> 01:29:40,830
they'll probably invent a ton of
technologies. Maybe they'll invent lie

6142
01:29:40,830 --> 01:29:40,840
technologies. Maybe they'll invent lie
 

6143
01:29:40,840 --> 01:29:42,150
technologies. Maybe they'll invent lie
detectors that actually work on real

6144
01:29:42,150 --> 01:29:42,160
detectors that actually work on real
 

6145
01:29:42,160 --> 01:29:43,350
detectors that actually work on real
humans.

6146
01:29:43,350 --> 01:29:43,360
humans.
 

6147
01:29:43,360 --> 01:29:45,470
humans.
That'll have big social effects, right?

6148
01:29:45,470 --> 01:29:45,480
That'll have big social effects, right?
 

6149
01:29:45,480 --> 01:29:46,950
That'll have big social effects, right?
Imagine a presidential candidate who's

6150
01:29:46,950 --> 01:29:46,960
Imagine a presidential candidate who's
 

6151
01:29:46,960 --> 01:29:49,310
Imagine a presidential candidate who's
like, "Those allegations are false

6152
01:29:49,310 --> 01:29:49,320
like, "Those allegations are false
 

6153
01:29:49,320 --> 01:29:50,870
like, "Those allegations are false
and to prove them, I will go under a lie

6154
01:29:50,870 --> 01:29:50,880
and to prove them, I will go under a lie
 

6155
01:29:50,880 --> 01:29:52,510
and to prove them, I will go under a lie
detector and say that they're false."

6156
01:29:52,510 --> 01:29:52,520
detector and say that they're false."
 

6157
01:29:52,520 --> 01:29:54,150
detector and say that they're false."
>> I was just thinking about the whole like

6158
01:29:54,150 --> 01:29:54,160
>> I was just thinking about the whole like
 

6159
01:29:54,160 --> 01:29:55,830
>> I was just thinking about the whole like
justice system and

6160
01:29:55,830 --> 01:29:55,840
justice system and
 

6161
01:29:55,840 --> 01:29:57,670
justice system and
how that would be overturned. Um in

6162
01:29:57,670 --> 01:29:57,680
how that would be overturned. Um in
 

6163
01:29:57,680 --> 01:29:59,270
how that would be overturned. Um in
fact, you could, you know, theoretically

6164
01:29:59,270 --> 01:29:59,280
fact, you could, you know, theoretically
 

6165
01:29:59,280 --> 01:30:01,750
fact, you could, you know, theoretically
walk down the street and be

6166
01:30:01,750 --> 01:30:01,760
walk down the street and be
 

6167
01:30:01,760 --> 01:30:02,230
walk down the street and be
Yeah.

6168
01:30:02,230 --> 01:30:02,240
Yeah.
 

6169
01:30:02,240 --> 01:30:03,390
Yeah.
>> It's both

6170
01:30:03,390 --> 01:30:03,400
>> It's both
 

6171
01:30:03,400 --> 01:30:05,270
>> It's both
terrifying and exciting.

6172
01:30:05,270 --> 01:30:05,280
terrifying and exciting.
 

6173
01:30:05,280 --> 01:30:06,310
terrifying and exciting.
One thing that we talk about in this

6174
01:30:06,310 --> 01:30:06,320
One thing that we talk about in this
 

6175
01:30:06,320 --> 01:30:08,430
One thing that we talk about in this
sec- in this section like the invention

6176
01:30:08,430 --> 01:30:08,440
sec- in this section like the invention
 

6177
01:30:08,440 --> 01:30:09,990
sec- in this section like the invention
of lie detectors could be really bad.

6178
01:30:09,990 --> 01:30:10,000
of lie detectors could be really bad.
 

6179
01:30:10,000 --> 01:30:11,870
of lie detectors could be really bad.
Like it could be that it enables a new

6180
01:30:11,870 --> 01:30:11,880
Like it could be that it enables a new
 

6181
01:30:11,880 --> 01:30:14,310
Like it could be that it enables a new
form of totalitarianism where the

6182
01:30:14,310 --> 01:30:14,320
form of totalitarianism where the
 

6183
01:30:14,320 --> 01:30:15,910
form of totalitarianism where the
powerful people, you know, the CEOs and

6184
01:30:15,910 --> 01:30:15,920
powerful people, you know, the CEOs and
 

6185
01:30:15,920 --> 01:30:17,070
powerful people, you know, the CEOs and
the politicians

6186
01:30:17,070 --> 01:30:17,080
the politicians
 

6187
01:30:17,080 --> 01:30:19,230
the politicians
force the people under them to go under

6188
01:30:19,230 --> 01:30:19,240
force the people under them to go under
 

6189
01:30:19,240 --> 01:30:20,550
force the people under them to go under
lie detectors and say like yes, I'm

6190
01:30:20,550 --> 01:30:20,560
lie detectors and say like yes, I'm
 

6191
01:30:20,560 --> 01:30:22,630
lie detectors and say like yes, I'm
loyal to the dear leader. I would never

6192
01:30:22,630 --> 01:30:22,640
loyal to the dear leader. I would never
 

6193
01:30:22,640 --> 01:30:23,870
loyal to the dear leader. I would never
do anything against the dear leader,

6194
01:30:23,870 --> 01:30:23,880
do anything against the dear leader,
 

6195
01:30:23,880 --> 01:30:24,270
do anything against the dear leader,
right?

6196
01:30:24,270 --> 01:30:24,280
right?
 

6197
01:30:24,280 --> 01:30:25,110
right?
>> you're lying then you're in

6198
01:30:25,110 --> 01:30:25,120
>> you're lying then you're in
 

6199
01:30:25,120 --> 01:30:26,030
>> you're lying then you're in
>> And then if you're lying you get fired,

6200
01:30:26,030 --> 01:30:26,040
>> And then if you're lying you get fired,
 

6201
01:30:26,040 --> 01:30:27,830
>> And then if you're lying you get fired,
right? So like there's there's a ton of

6202
01:30:27,830 --> 01:30:27,840
right? So like there's there's a ton of
 

6203
01:30:27,840 --> 01:30:29,550
right? So like there's there's a ton of
like very harmful uses of lie detector

6204
01:30:29,550 --> 01:30:29,560
like very harmful uses of lie detector
 

6205
01:30:29,560 --> 01:30:31,670
like very harmful uses of lie detector
technology. There's also the good uses

6206
01:30:31,670 --> 01:30:31,680
technology. There's also the good uses
 

6207
01:30:31,680 --> 01:30:33,310
technology. There's also the good uses
and broadly speaking I would say the

6208
01:30:33,310 --> 01:30:33,320
and broadly speaking I would say the
 

6209
01:30:33,320 --> 01:30:35,310
and broadly speaking I would say the
good uses are when lie detectors are

6210
01:30:35,310 --> 01:30:35,320
good uses are when lie detectors are
 

6211
01:30:35,320 --> 01:30:37,150
good uses are when lie detectors are
used on the powerful instead of by the

6212
01:30:37,150 --> 01:30:37,160
used on the powerful instead of by the
 

6213
01:30:37,160 --> 01:30:37,790
used on the powerful instead of by the
powerful.

6214
01:30:37,790 --> 01:30:37,800
powerful.
 

6215
01:30:37,800 --> 01:30:40,390
powerful.
>> What's this? 2040 passing the torch to

6216
01:30:40,390 --> 01:30:40,400
>> What's this? 2040 passing the torch to
 

6217
01:30:40,400 --> 01:30:41,030
>> What's this? 2040 passing the torch to
AIs.

6218
01:30:41,030 --> 01:30:41,040
AIs.
 

6219
01:30:41,040 --> 01:30:42,750
AIs.
>> Yeah, great. So

6220
01:30:42,750 --> 01:30:42,760
>> Yeah, great. So
 

6221
01:30:42,760 --> 01:30:44,390
>> Yeah, great. So
here they pause at the top expert AI

6222
01:30:44,390 --> 01:30:44,400
here they pause at the top expert AI
 

6223
01:30:44,400 --> 01:30:46,230
here they pause at the top expert AI
level. And the reason why they pause is

6224
01:30:46,230 --> 01:30:46,240
level. And the reason why they pause is
 

6225
01:30:46,240 --> 01:30:47,430
level. And the reason why they pause is
because

6226
01:30:47,430 --> 01:30:47,440
because
 

6227
01:30:47,440 --> 01:30:49,310
because
their safety cases aren't good enough

6228
01:30:49,310 --> 01:30:49,320
their safety cases aren't good enough
 

6229
01:30:49,320 --> 01:30:51,950
their safety cases aren't good enough
for going beyond that level. Um so in

6230
01:30:51,950 --> 01:30:51,960
for going beyond that level. Um so in
 

6231
01:30:51,960 --> 01:30:53,310
for going beyond that level. Um so in
the sort of regulatory systems that they

6232
01:30:53,310 --> 01:30:53,320
the sort of regulatory systems that they
 

6233
01:30:53,320 --> 01:30:55,630
the sort of regulatory systems that they
set up over the course of these years,

6234
01:30:55,630 --> 01:30:55,640
set up over the course of these years,
 

6235
01:30:55,640 --> 01:30:57,350
set up over the course of these years,
roughly speaking the way they would work

6236
01:30:57,350 --> 01:30:57,360
roughly speaking the way they would work
 

6237
01:30:57,360 --> 01:30:59,950
roughly speaking the way they would work
is when you're making a new AI and then

6238
01:30:59,950 --> 01:30:59,960
is when you're making a new AI and then
 

6239
01:30:59,960 --> 01:31:01,270
is when you're making a new AI and then
when you're trying to deploy the AI into

6240
01:31:01,270 --> 01:31:01,280
when you're trying to deploy the AI into
 

6241
01:31:01,280 --> 01:31:03,310
when you're trying to deploy the AI into
something, you have to have some sort of

6242
01:31:03,310 --> 01:31:03,320
something, you have to have some sort of
 

6243
01:31:03,320 --> 01:31:05,430
something, you have to have some sort of
safety case explaining like

6244
01:31:05,430 --> 01:31:05,440
safety case explaining like
 

6245
01:31:05,440 --> 01:31:06,990
safety case explaining like
what your intentions are and like why

6246
01:31:06,990 --> 01:31:07,000
what your intentions are and like why
 

6247
01:31:07,000 --> 01:31:08,150
what your intentions are and like why
you think it's going to work the way

6248
01:31:08,150 --> 01:31:08,160
you think it's going to work the way
 

6249
01:31:08,160 --> 01:31:09,310
you think it's going to work the way
that you want it to work. And in

6250
01:31:09,310 --> 01:31:09,320
that you want it to work. And in
 

6251
01:31:09,320 --> 01:31:12,150
that you want it to work. And in
particular why the AI is going to like

6252
01:31:12,150 --> 01:31:12,160
particular why the AI is going to like
 

6253
01:31:12,160 --> 01:31:14,550
particular why the AI is going to like
do as it's told, for example, and why

6254
01:31:14,550 --> 01:31:14,560
do as it's told, for example, and why
 

6255
01:31:14,560 --> 01:31:15,670
do as it's told, for example, and why
nothing super terrible's going to happen

6256
01:31:15,670 --> 01:31:15,680
nothing super terrible's going to happen
 

6257
01:31:15,680 --> 01:31:17,270
nothing super terrible's going to happen
like AI takeover.

6258
01:31:17,270 --> 01:31:17,280
like AI takeover.
 

6259
01:31:17,280 --> 01:31:18,830
like AI takeover.
It's relatively easy to make safety

6260
01:31:18,830 --> 01:31:18,840
It's relatively easy to make safety
 

6261
01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:21,550
It's relatively easy to make safety
cases like this when your AIs are still

6262
01:31:21,550 --> 01:31:21,560
cases like this when your AIs are still
 

6263
01:31:21,560 --> 01:31:24,430
cases like this when your AIs are still
not capable of automating everything.

6264
01:31:24,430 --> 01:31:24,440
not capable of automating everything.
 

6265
01:31:24,440 --> 01:31:26,630
not capable of automating everything.
But the more powerful they get, the more

6266
01:31:26,630 --> 01:31:26,640
But the more powerful they get, the more
 

6267
01:31:26,640 --> 01:31:28,430
But the more powerful they get, the more
difficult it is to actually argue that

6268
01:31:28,430 --> 01:31:28,440
difficult it is to actually argue that
 

6269
01:31:28,440 --> 01:31:29,910
difficult it is to actually argue that
things are going to be fine because the

6270
01:31:29,910 --> 01:31:29,920
things are going to be fine because the
 

6271
01:31:29,920 --> 01:31:31,270
things are going to be fine because the
AIs are just more capable and they can

6272
01:31:31,270 --> 01:31:31,280
AIs are just more capable and they can
 

6273
01:31:31,280 --> 01:31:32,510
AIs are just more capable and they can
they can get up to more stuff. And if

6274
01:31:32,510 --> 01:31:32,520
they can get up to more stuff. And if
 

6275
01:31:32,520 --> 01:31:34,310
they can get up to more stuff. And if
you if they're actually untrustworthy,

6276
01:31:34,310 --> 01:31:34,320
you if they're actually untrustworthy,
 

6277
01:31:34,320 --> 01:31:36,150
you if they're actually untrustworthy,
the the possible downsides are bigger.

6278
01:31:36,150 --> 01:31:36,160
the the possible downsides are bigger.
 

6279
01:31:36,160 --> 01:31:38,350
the the possible downsides are bigger.
So that's why they stop at this level is

6280
01:31:38,350 --> 01:31:38,360
So that's why they stop at this level is
 

6281
01:31:38,360 --> 01:31:40,190
So that's why they stop at this level is
that they they realize that if they keep

6282
01:31:40,190 --> 01:31:40,200
that they they realize that if they keep
 

6283
01:31:40,200 --> 01:31:41,910
that they they realize that if they keep
going then they might actually lose

6284
01:31:41,910 --> 01:31:41,920
going then they might actually lose
 

6285
01:31:41,920 --> 01:31:43,830
going then they might actually lose
control of everything. But at the

6286
01:31:43,830 --> 01:31:43,840
control of everything. But at the
 

6287
01:31:43,840 --> 01:31:45,230
control of everything. But at the
current level they're convinced by

6288
01:31:45,230 --> 01:31:45,240
current level they're convinced by
 

6289
01:31:45,240 --> 01:31:47,150
current level they're convinced by
safety cases that it's fine. But then

6290
01:31:47,150 --> 01:31:47,160
safety cases that it's fine. But then
 

6291
01:31:47,160 --> 01:31:48,190
safety cases that it's fine. But then
they don't want to go further. So they

6292
01:31:48,190 --> 01:31:48,200
they don't want to go further. So they
 

6293
01:31:48,200 --> 01:31:49,470
they don't want to go further. So they
stop there.

6294
01:31:49,470 --> 01:31:49,480
stop there.
 

6295
01:31:49,480 --> 01:31:51,710
stop there.
And then what happens in 2040 is they've

6296
01:31:51,710 --> 01:31:51,720
And then what happens in 2040 is they've
 

6297
01:31:51,720 --> 01:31:54,150
And then what happens in 2040 is they've
made significant progress scientifically

6298
01:31:54,150 --> 01:31:54,160
made significant progress scientifically
 

6299
01:31:54,160 --> 01:31:56,270
made significant progress scientifically
including on alignment and they figured

6300
01:31:56,270 --> 01:31:56,280
including on alignment and they figured
 

6301
01:31:56,280 --> 01:31:57,910
including on alignment and they figured
out how to make AIs that are actually

6302
01:31:57,910 --> 01:31:57,920
out how to make AIs that are actually
 

6303
01:31:57,920 --> 01:31:59,390
out how to make AIs that are actually
aligned in a robust way.

6304
01:31:59,390 --> 01:31:59,400
aligned in a robust way.
 

6305
01:31:59,400 --> 01:32:00,190
aligned in a robust way.
>> With humans?

6306
01:32:00,190 --> 01:32:00,200
>> With humans?
 

6307
01:32:00,200 --> 01:32:01,990
>> With humans?
>> With humans. So they can actually trust

6308
01:32:01,990 --> 01:32:02,000
>> With humans. So they can actually trust
 

6309
01:32:02,000 --> 01:32:03,750
>> With humans. So they can actually trust
those AIs and they can allow them to

6310
01:32:03,750 --> 01:32:03,760
those AIs and they can allow them to
 

6311
01:32:03,760 --> 01:32:05,510
those AIs and they can allow them to
become much smarter again. So, that's

6312
01:32:05,510 --> 01:32:05,520
become much smarter again. So, that's
 

6313
01:32:05,520 --> 01:32:07,870
become much smarter again. So, that's
why we call the whole thing AI 2040 cuz

6314
01:32:07,870 --> 01:32:07,880
why we call the whole thing AI 2040 cuz
 

6315
01:32:07,880 --> 01:32:11,150
why we call the whole thing AI 2040 cuz
in 2040 they sort of let off the brakes

6316
01:32:11,150 --> 01:32:11,160
in 2040 they sort of let off the brakes
 

6317
01:32:11,160 --> 01:32:12,990
in 2040 they sort of let off the brakes
and allow the AIs to become

6318
01:32:12,990 --> 01:32:13,000
and allow the AIs to become
 

6319
01:32:13,000 --> 01:32:14,710
and allow the AIs to become
significantly smarter than humans.

6320
01:32:14,710 --> 01:32:14,720
significantly smarter than humans.
 

6321
01:32:14,720 --> 01:32:16,590
significantly smarter than humans.
>> I guess you know, this is a this is a

6322
01:32:16,590 --> 01:32:16,600
>> I guess you know, this is a this is a
 

6323
01:32:16,600 --> 01:32:18,950
>> I guess you know, this is a this is a
plan and this is a hope.

6324
01:32:18,950 --> 01:32:18,960
plan and this is a hope.
 

6325
01:32:18,960 --> 01:32:20,310
plan and this is a hope.
>> Yes.

6326
01:32:20,310 --> 01:32:20,320
>> Yes.
 

6327
01:32:20,320 --> 01:32:21,830
>> Yes.
>> But in reality, this is not what you

6328
01:32:21,830 --> 01:32:21,840
>> But in reality, this is not what you
 

6329
01:32:21,840 --> 01:32:24,230
>> But in reality, this is not what you
think probabilistically if you had to

6330
01:32:24,230 --> 01:32:24,240
think probabilistically if you had to
 

6331
01:32:24,240 --> 01:32:25,110
think probabilistically if you had to
>> That's right. It's important to

6332
01:32:25,110 --> 01:32:25,120
>> That's right. It's important to
 

6333
01:32:25,120 --> 01:32:26,630
>> That's right. It's important to
distinguish like this is what we

6334
01:32:26,630 --> 01:32:26,640
distinguish like this is what we
 

6335
01:32:26,640 --> 01:32:27,870
distinguish like this is what we
recommend. This is what we want to

6336
01:32:27,870 --> 01:32:27,880
recommend. This is what we want to
 

6337
01:32:27,880 --> 01:32:30,070
recommend. This is what we want to
happen from like this is what we

6338
01:32:30,070 --> 01:32:30,080
happen from like this is what we
 

6339
01:32:30,080 --> 01:32:32,230
happen from like this is what we
actually think will happen by default.

6340
01:32:32,230 --> 01:32:32,240
actually think will happen by default.
 

6341
01:32:32,240 --> 01:32:33,630
actually think will happen by default.
Now, we do think it's possible for this

6342
01:32:33,630 --> 01:32:33,640
Now, we do think it's possible for this
 

6343
01:32:33,640 --> 01:32:35,190
Now, we do think it's possible for this
to happen, but you know, that will

6344
01:32:35,190 --> 01:32:35,200
to happen, but you know, that will
 

6345
01:32:35,200 --> 01:32:36,670
to happen, but you know, that will
require a lot of people to sort of wake

6346
01:32:36,670 --> 01:32:36,680
require a lot of people to sort of wake
 

6347
01:32:36,680 --> 01:32:40,110
require a lot of people to sort of wake
up and pay more attention and advocate

6348
01:32:40,110 --> 01:32:40,120
up and pay more attention and advocate
 

6349
01:32:40,120 --> 01:32:41,510
up and pay more attention and advocate
for something like this to happen. So,

6350
01:32:41,510 --> 01:32:41,520
for something like this to happen. So,
 

6351
01:32:41,520 --> 01:32:44,350
for something like this to happen. So,
our main scenario is mostly talking

6352
01:32:44,350 --> 01:32:44,360
our main scenario is mostly talking
 

6353
01:32:44,360 --> 01:32:46,110
our main scenario is mostly talking
about the policy choices made and the

6354
01:32:46,110 --> 01:32:46,120
about the policy choices made and the
 

6355
01:32:46,120 --> 01:32:48,550
about the policy choices made and the
broad scale effects on society. We

6356
01:32:48,550 --> 01:32:48,560
broad scale effects on society. We
 

6357
01:32:48,560 --> 01:32:49,750
broad scale effects on society. We
figured it would also be nice to

6358
01:32:49,750 --> 01:32:49,760
figured it would also be nice to
 

6359
01:32:49,760 --> 01:32:51,950
figured it would also be nice to
accompany this with a little mini

6360
01:32:51,950 --> 01:32:51,960
accompany this with a little mini
 

6361
01:32:51,960 --> 01:32:53,470
accompany this with a little mini
scenario that describes what it would

6362
01:32:53,470 --> 01:32:53,480
scenario that describes what it would
 

6363
01:32:53,480 --> 01:32:56,190
scenario that describes what it would
actually feel like to live through this

6364
01:32:56,190 --> 01:32:56,200
actually feel like to live through this
 

6365
01:32:56,200 --> 01:32:57,870
actually feel like to live through this
from an ordinary person's perspective.

6366
01:32:57,870 --> 01:32:57,880
from an ordinary person's perspective.
 

6367
01:32:57,880 --> 01:32:58,510
from an ordinary person's perspective.
>> Okay.

6368
01:32:58,510 --> 01:32:58,520
>> Okay.
 

6369
01:32:58,520 --> 01:33:00,190
>> Okay.
>> Um 2029, everyone's yelling at each

6370
01:33:00,190 --> 01:33:00,200
>> Um 2029, everyone's yelling at each
 

6371
01:33:00,200 --> 01:33:01,550
>> Um 2029, everyone's yelling at each
other, the presidents are negotiating

6372
01:33:01,550 --> 01:33:01,560
other, the presidents are negotiating
 

6373
01:33:01,560 --> 01:33:04,670
other, the presidents are negotiating
something and they've paused AI, but you

6374
01:33:04,670 --> 01:33:04,680
something and they've paused AI, but you
 

6375
01:33:04,680 --> 01:33:06,270
something and they've paused AI, but you
still have access to the existing AIs,

6376
01:33:06,270 --> 01:33:06,280
still have access to the existing AIs,
 

6377
01:33:06,280 --> 01:33:07,830
still have access to the existing AIs,
so it doesn't really feel that different

6378
01:33:07,830 --> 01:33:07,840
so it doesn't really feel that different
 

6379
01:33:07,840 --> 01:33:09,270
so it doesn't really feel that different
although it definitely is like something

6380
01:33:09,270 --> 01:33:09,280
although it definitely is like something
 

6381
01:33:09,280 --> 01:33:11,430
although it definitely is like something
exciting happening. 2031, they've

6382
01:33:11,430 --> 01:33:11,440
exciting happening. 2031, they've
 

6383
01:33:11,440 --> 01:33:12,750
exciting happening. 2031, they've
started progress again, the AIs are

6384
01:33:12,750 --> 01:33:12,760
started progress again, the AIs are
 

6385
01:33:12,760 --> 01:33:14,030
started progress again, the AIs are
really smart, more people have lost

6386
01:33:14,030 --> 01:33:14,040
really smart, more people have lost
 

6387
01:33:14,040 --> 01:33:15,230
really smart, more people have lost
their jobs, it's like really starting to

6388
01:33:15,230 --> 01:33:15,240
their jobs, it's like really starting to
 

6389
01:33:15,240 --> 01:33:16,630
their jobs, it's like really starting to
actually affect things, but I think

6390
01:33:16,630 --> 01:33:16,640
actually affect things, but I think
 

6391
01:33:16,640 --> 01:33:18,030
actually affect things, but I think
still most people have their jobs, but

6392
01:33:18,030 --> 01:33:18,040
still most people have their jobs, but
 

6393
01:33:18,040 --> 01:33:19,270
still most people have their jobs, but
their jobs are sort of transformed. So,

6394
01:33:19,270 --> 01:33:19,280
their jobs are sort of transformed. So,
 

6395
01:33:19,280 --> 01:33:21,070
their jobs are sort of transformed. So,
like by 2031 it's like

6396
01:33:21,070 --> 01:33:21,080
like by 2031 it's like
 

6397
01:33:21,080 --> 01:33:23,310
like by 2031 it's like
most white collar jobs involve working

6398
01:33:23,310 --> 01:33:23,320
most white collar jobs involve working
 

6399
01:33:23,320 --> 01:33:25,510
most white collar jobs involve working
with AIs to a large extent or managing

6400
01:33:25,510 --> 01:33:25,520
with AIs to a large extent or managing
 

6401
01:33:25,520 --> 01:33:27,430
with AIs to a large extent or managing
teams of AIs or collaborating with them

6402
01:33:27,430 --> 01:33:27,440
teams of AIs or collaborating with them
 

6403
01:33:27,440 --> 01:33:27,950
teams of AIs or collaborating with them
somehow.

6404
01:33:27,950 --> 01:33:27,960
somehow.
 

6405
01:33:27,960 --> 01:33:28,350
somehow.
>> And what was

6406
01:33:28,350 --> 01:33:28,360
>> And what was
 

6407
01:33:28,360 --> 01:33:29,550
>> And what was
>> Also, there are some things like robo

6408
01:33:29,550 --> 01:33:29,560
>> Also, there are some things like robo
 

6409
01:33:29,560 --> 01:33:31,030
>> Also, there are some things like robo
taxis that are basically just working.

6410
01:33:31,030 --> 01:33:31,040
taxis that are basically just working.
 

6411
01:33:31,040 --> 01:33:33,190
taxis that are basically just working.
Citizens dividend, you know, ideally

6412
01:33:33,190 --> 01:33:33,200
Citizens dividend, you know, ideally
 

6413
01:33:33,200 --> 01:33:34,870
Citizens dividend, you know, ideally
this would happen sooner. Like in our

6414
01:33:34,870 --> 01:33:34,880
this would happen sooner. Like in our
 

6415
01:33:34,880 --> 01:33:36,270
this would happen sooner. Like in our
scenario, they kind of do things at the

6416
01:33:36,270 --> 01:33:36,280
scenario, they kind of do things at the
 

6417
01:33:36,280 --> 01:33:37,470
scenario, they kind of do things at the
last minute.

6418
01:33:37,470 --> 01:33:37,480
last minute.
 

6419
01:33:37,480 --> 01:33:39,230
last minute.
You know, so like a lot of these policy

6420
01:33:39,230 --> 01:33:39,240
You know, so like a lot of these policy
 

6421
01:33:39,240 --> 01:33:41,110
You know, so like a lot of these policy
things are like happening kind of like

6422
01:33:41,110 --> 01:33:41,120
things are like happening kind of like
 

6423
01:33:41,120 --> 01:33:42,910
things are like happening kind of like
just in time. Obviously, we would

6424
01:33:42,910 --> 01:33:42,920
just in time. Obviously, we would
 

6425
01:33:42,920 --> 01:33:44,430
just in time. Obviously, we would
recommend that you do them sooner and

6426
01:33:44,430 --> 01:33:44,440
recommend that you do them sooner and
 

6427
01:33:44,440 --> 01:33:46,190
recommend that you do them sooner and
and do a better job of them, too. But

6428
01:33:46,190 --> 01:33:46,200
and do a better job of them, too. But
 

6429
01:33:46,200 --> 01:33:47,990
and do a better job of them, too. But
so, 2033, you start getting your your

6430
01:33:47,990 --> 01:33:48,000
so, 2033, you start getting your your
 

6431
01:33:48,000 --> 01:33:49,430
so, 2033, you start getting your your
checks from your dividend.

6432
01:33:49,430 --> 01:33:49,440
checks from your dividend.
 

6433
01:33:49,440 --> 01:33:51,070
checks from your dividend.
>> So, you're forecasting that there will

6434
01:33:51,070 --> 01:33:51,080
>> So, you're forecasting that there will
 

6435
01:33:51,080 --> 01:33:53,150
>> So, you're forecasting that there will
be a citizen's check. The your model

6436
01:33:53,150 --> 01:33:53,160
be a citizen's check. The your model
 

6437
01:33:53,160 --> 01:33:55,150
be a citizen's check. The your model
says it could be around 25,000 at the

6438
01:33:55,150 --> 01:33:55,160
says it could be around 25,000 at the
 

6439
01:33:55,160 --> 01:33:56,630
says it could be around 25,000 at the
start per person.

6440
01:33:56,630 --> 01:33:56,640
start per person.
 

6441
01:33:56,640 --> 01:33:57,710
start per person.
>> And then it would grow as the economy

6442
01:33:57,710 --> 01:33:57,720
>> And then it would grow as the economy
 

6443
01:33:57,720 --> 01:33:58,750
>> And then it would grow as the economy
grows.

6444
01:33:58,750 --> 01:33:58,760
grows.
 

6445
01:33:58,760 --> 01:34:00,150
grows.
>> But also as like as job displacement

6446
01:34:00,150 --> 01:34:00,160
>> But also as like as job displacement
 

6447
01:34:00,160 --> 01:34:01,550
>> But also as like as job displacement
takes hold, they're going to need to to

6448
01:34:01,550 --> 01:34:01,560
takes hold, they're going to need to to
 

6449
01:34:01,560 --> 01:34:02,790
takes hold, they're going to need to to
grow that check and make sure you can

6450
01:34:02,790 --> 01:34:02,800
grow that check and make sure you can
 

6451
01:34:02,800 --> 01:34:03,870
grow that check and make sure you can
>> And that's why it's kind of the last

6452
01:34:03,870 --> 01:34:03,880
>> And that's why it's kind of the last
 

6453
01:34:03,880 --> 01:34:05,150
>> And that's why it's kind of the last
possible moment because if you waited to

6454
01:34:05,150 --> 01:34:05,160
possible moment because if you waited to
 

6455
01:34:05,160 --> 01:34:08,150
possible moment because if you waited to
implement this until like 2037, then

6456
01:34:08,150 --> 01:34:08,160
implement this until like 2037, then
 

6457
01:34:08,160 --> 01:34:09,150
implement this until like 2037, then
like everyone would have already lost

6458
01:34:09,150 --> 01:34:09,160
like everyone would have already lost
 

6459
01:34:09,160 --> 01:34:11,630
like everyone would have already lost
their jobs by the time that happens,

6460
01:34:11,630 --> 01:34:11,640
their jobs by the time that happens,
 

6461
01:34:11,640 --> 01:34:12,390
their jobs by the time that happens,
right?

6462
01:34:12,390 --> 01:34:12,400
right?
 

6463
01:34:12,400 --> 01:34:14,590
right?
>> People losing their jobs, especially if

6464
01:34:14,590 --> 01:34:14,600
>> People losing their jobs, especially if
 

6465
01:34:14,600 --> 01:34:15,990
>> People losing their jobs, especially if
it happens

6466
01:34:15,990 --> 01:34:16,000
it happens
 

6467
01:34:16,000 --> 01:34:17,510
it happens
quickly like like we see on this sort of

6468
01:34:17,510 --> 01:34:17,520
quickly like like we see on this sort of
 

6469
01:34:17,520 --> 01:34:18,790
quickly like like we see on this sort of
graph here,

6470
01:34:18,790 --> 01:34:18,800
graph here,
 

6471
01:34:18,800 --> 01:34:19,990
graph here,
is going to cause lots of problems in

6472
01:34:19,990 --> 01:34:20,000
is going to cause lots of problems in
 

6473
01:34:20,000 --> 01:34:21,950
is going to cause lots of problems in
terms of civil unrest, social unrest,

6474
01:34:21,950 --> 01:34:21,960
terms of civil unrest, social unrest,
 

6475
01:34:21,960 --> 01:34:23,950
terms of civil unrest, social unrest,
purpose, mental health, these kinds of

6476
01:34:23,950 --> 01:34:23,960
purpose, mental health, these kinds of
 

6477
01:34:23,960 --> 01:34:25,790
purpose, mental health, these kinds of
things theoretically.

6478
01:34:25,790 --> 01:34:25,800
things theoretically.
 

6479
01:34:25,800 --> 01:34:26,150
things theoretically.
>> Yes.

6480
01:34:26,150 --> 01:34:26,160
>> Yes.
 

6481
01:34:26,160 --> 01:34:27,870
>> Yes.
>> How do you think about that?

6482
01:34:27,870 --> 01:34:27,880
>> How do you think about that?
 

6483
01:34:27,880 --> 01:34:29,830
>> How do you think about that?
>> Uh it's it's going to be rough and

6484
01:34:29,830 --> 01:34:29,840
>> Uh it's it's going to be rough and
 

6485
01:34:29,840 --> 01:34:31,510
>> Uh it's it's going to be rough and
hopefully we can navigate that well. We

6486
01:34:31,510 --> 01:34:31,520
hopefully we can navigate that well. We
 

6487
01:34:31,520 --> 01:34:33,310
hopefully we can navigate that well. We
think that at a high level, people need

6488
01:34:33,310 --> 01:34:33,320
think that at a high level, people need
 

6489
01:34:33,320 --> 01:34:34,390
think that at a high level, people need
to have money

6490
01:34:34,390 --> 01:34:34,400
to have money
 

6491
01:34:34,400 --> 01:34:36,470
to have money
and also people need to have power. And

6492
01:34:36,470 --> 01:34:36,480
and also people need to have power. And
 

6493
01:34:36,480 --> 01:34:37,350
and also people need to have power. And
I think these are like somewhat

6494
01:34:37,350 --> 01:34:37,360
I think these are like somewhat
 

6495
01:34:37,360 --> 01:34:39,190
I think these are like somewhat
different things. It's like why are jobs

6496
01:34:39,190 --> 01:34:39,200
different things. It's like why are jobs
 

6497
01:34:39,200 --> 01:34:40,470
different things. It's like why are jobs
important? Well, there's a lot of

6498
01:34:40,470 --> 01:34:40,480
important? Well, there's a lot of
 

6499
01:34:40,480 --> 01:34:41,390
important? Well, there's a lot of
reasons why jobs are important, but I

6500
01:34:41,390 --> 01:34:41,400
reasons why jobs are important, but I
 

6501
01:34:41,400 --> 01:34:42,950
reasons why jobs are important, but I
think the main ones are

6502
01:34:42,950 --> 01:34:42,960
think the main ones are
 

6503
01:34:42,960 --> 01:34:44,430
think the main ones are
um well, it's how people get money so so

6504
01:34:44,430 --> 01:34:44,440
um well, it's how people get money so so
 

6505
01:34:44,440 --> 01:34:45,830
um well, it's how people get money so so
they can survive and get things that

6506
01:34:45,830 --> 01:34:45,840
they can survive and get things that
 

6507
01:34:45,840 --> 01:34:46,910
they can survive and get things that
they want by buying the things that they

6508
01:34:46,910 --> 01:34:46,920
they want by buying the things that they
 

6509
01:34:46,920 --> 01:34:48,270
they want by buying the things that they
want. So if people are going to be

6510
01:34:48,270 --> 01:34:48,280
want. So if people are going to be
 

6511
01:34:48,280 --> 01:34:49,430
want. So if people are going to be
losing their jobs, you need some other

6512
01:34:49,430 --> 01:34:49,440
losing their jobs, you need some other
 

6513
01:34:49,440 --> 01:34:51,510
losing their jobs, you need some other
way of people getting money.

6514
01:34:51,510 --> 01:34:51,520
way of people getting money.
 

6515
01:34:51,520 --> 01:34:52,950
way of people getting money.
And then there's also the power thing,

6516
01:34:52,950 --> 01:34:52,960
And then there's also the power thing,
 

6517
01:34:52,960 --> 01:34:55,070
And then there's also the power thing,
which is that right now people have

6518
01:34:55,070 --> 01:34:55,080
which is that right now people have
 

6519
01:34:55,080 --> 01:34:57,190
which is that right now people have
political power in part due to their

6520
01:34:57,190 --> 01:34:57,200
political power in part due to their
 

6521
01:34:57,200 --> 01:34:58,990
political power in part due to their
economic power. People can threaten to

6522
01:34:58,990 --> 01:34:59,000
economic power. People can threaten to
 

6523
01:34:59,000 --> 01:35:01,910
economic power. People can threaten to
go on strike, for example, or you know,

6524
01:35:01,910 --> 01:35:01,920
go on strike, for example, or you know,
 

6525
01:35:01,920 --> 01:35:04,030
go on strike, for example, or you know,
countries that are ruled by dictators

6526
01:35:04,030 --> 01:35:04,040
countries that are ruled by dictators
 

6527
01:35:04,040 --> 01:35:05,990
countries that are ruled by dictators
can't

6528
01:35:05,990 --> 01:35:06,000
can't
 

6529
01:35:06,000 --> 01:35:07,630
can't
just completely,

6530
01:35:07,630 --> 01:35:07,640
just completely,
 

6531
01:35:07,640 --> 01:35:09,030
just completely,
you know, genocide an entire

6532
01:35:09,030 --> 01:35:09,040
you know, genocide an entire
 

6533
01:35:09,040 --> 01:35:11,350
you know, genocide an entire
subpopulation, or they can, but like

6534
01:35:11,350 --> 01:35:11,360
subpopulation, or they can, but like
 

6535
01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:14,190
subpopulation, or they can, but like
it's costly for them to do so because

6536
01:35:14,190 --> 01:35:14,200
it's costly for them to do so because
 

6537
01:35:14,200 --> 01:35:15,470
it's costly for them to do so because
then they'll have less money because

6538
01:35:15,470 --> 01:35:15,480
then they'll have less money because
 

6539
01:35:15,480 --> 01:35:16,790
then they'll have less money because
that subpopulation is contributing to

6540
01:35:16,790 --> 01:35:16,800
that subpopulation is contributing to
 

6541
01:35:16,800 --> 01:35:18,070
that subpopulation is contributing to
their economy and contributing tax

6542
01:35:18,070 --> 01:35:18,080
their economy and contributing tax
 

6543
01:35:18,080 --> 01:35:20,270
their economy and contributing tax
revenue and so forth. But if you end up

6544
01:35:20,270 --> 01:35:20,280
revenue and so forth. But if you end up
 

6545
01:35:20,280 --> 01:35:21,590
revenue and so forth. But if you end up
in a world where actually nobody's

6546
01:35:21,590 --> 01:35:21,600
in a world where actually nobody's
 

6547
01:35:21,600 --> 01:35:23,470
in a world where actually nobody's
contributing tax revenue revenue except

6548
01:35:23,470 --> 01:35:23,480
contributing tax revenue revenue except
 

6549
01:35:23,480 --> 01:35:25,070
contributing tax revenue revenue except
for the AI companies and the robot

6550
01:35:25,070 --> 01:35:25,080
for the AI companies and the robot
 

6551
01:35:25,080 --> 01:35:26,950
for the AI companies and the robot
companies, then you're you, the

6552
01:35:26,950 --> 01:35:26,960
companies, then you're you, the
 

6553
01:35:26,960 --> 01:35:28,990
companies, then you're you, the
government, are less incentivized to

6554
01:35:28,990 --> 01:35:29,000
government, are less incentivized to
 

6555
01:35:29,000 --> 01:35:31,350
government, are less incentivized to
care about what, you know, the common

6556
01:35:31,350 --> 01:35:31,360
care about what, you know, the common
 

6557
01:35:31,360 --> 01:35:32,790
care about what, you know, the common
people think. So so

6558
01:35:32,790 --> 01:35:32,800
people think. So so
 

6559
01:35:32,800 --> 01:35:34,710
people think. So so
when people lose their jobs, they're not

6560
01:35:34,710 --> 01:35:34,720
when people lose their jobs, they're not
 

6561
01:35:34,720 --> 01:35:36,670
when people lose their jobs, they're not
just threatened with lack of loss of

6562
01:35:36,670 --> 01:35:36,680
just threatened with lack of loss of
 

6563
01:35:36,680 --> 01:35:37,950
just threatened with lack of loss of
income, they're also threatened with

6564
01:35:37,950 --> 01:35:37,960
income, they're also threatened with
 

6565
01:35:37,960 --> 01:35:39,630
income, they're also threatened with
loss of political power.

6566
01:35:39,630 --> 01:35:39,640
loss of political power.
 

6567
01:35:39,640 --> 01:35:40,990
loss of political power.
And so we think that it's important to

6568
01:35:40,990 --> 01:35:41,000
And so we think that it's important to
 

6569
01:35:41,000 --> 01:35:43,190
And so we think that it's important to
like do things to push against that.

6570
01:35:43,190 --> 01:35:43,200
like do things to push against that.
 

6571
01:35:43,200 --> 01:35:45,070
like do things to push against that.
>> What does that look like? How do you How

6572
01:35:45,070 --> 01:35:45,080
>> What does that look like? How do you How
 

6573
01:35:45,080 --> 01:35:47,270
>> What does that look like? How do you How
do people have power in such a world?

6574
01:35:47,270 --> 01:35:47,280
do people have power in such a world?
 

6575
01:35:47,280 --> 01:35:48,950
do people have power in such a world?
>> Well, in democracies at least they still

6576
01:35:48,950 --> 01:35:48,960
>> Well, in democracies at least they still
 

6577
01:35:48,960 --> 01:35:49,710
>> Well, in democracies at least they still
have votes.

6578
01:35:49,710 --> 01:35:49,720
have votes.
 

6579
01:35:49,720 --> 01:35:50,270
have votes.
>> Okay.

6580
01:35:50,270 --> 01:35:50,280
>> Okay.
 

6581
01:35:50,280 --> 01:35:52,630
>> Okay.
>> So I think that it's very important for

6582
01:35:52,630 --> 01:35:52,640
>> So I think that it's very important for
 

6583
01:35:52,640 --> 01:35:55,990
>> So I think that it's very important for
there to be uh regulations on the use of

6584
01:35:55,990 --> 01:35:56,000
there to be uh regulations on the use of
 

6585
01:35:56,000 --> 01:35:59,230
there to be uh regulations on the use of
AI that help make

6586
01:35:59,230 --> 01:35:59,240
AI that help make
 

6587
01:35:59,240 --> 01:36:02,150
AI that help make
the public discourse more sane

6588
01:36:02,150 --> 01:36:02,160
the public discourse more sane
 

6589
01:36:02,160 --> 01:36:03,470
the public discourse more sane
and more

6590
01:36:03,470 --> 01:36:03,480
and more
 

6591
01:36:03,480 --> 01:36:04,270
and more
um

6592
01:36:04,270 --> 01:36:04,280
um
 

6593
01:36:04,280 --> 01:36:05,670
um
actually giving the people what is in

6594
01:36:05,670 --> 01:36:05,680
actually giving the people what is in
 

6595
01:36:05,680 --> 01:36:07,630
actually giving the people what is in
their interest and what they want and

6596
01:36:07,630 --> 01:36:07,640
their interest and what they want and
 

6597
01:36:07,640 --> 01:36:10,670
their interest and what they want and
avoiding a sort of um opposite outcome

6598
01:36:10,670 --> 01:36:10,680
avoiding a sort of um opposite outcome
 

6599
01:36:10,680 --> 01:36:11,750
avoiding a sort of um opposite outcome
where

6600
01:36:11,750 --> 01:36:11,760
where
 

6601
01:36:11,760 --> 01:36:14,030
where
you know, the masses are easily

6602
01:36:14,030 --> 01:36:14,040
you know, the masses are easily
 

6603
01:36:14,040 --> 01:36:16,790
you know, the masses are easily
manipulated by AI-powered media, for

6604
01:36:16,790 --> 01:36:16,800
manipulated by AI-powered media, for
 

6605
01:36:16,800 --> 01:36:19,510
manipulated by AI-powered media, for
example. Or where everyone's talking all

6606
01:36:19,510 --> 01:36:19,520
example. Or where everyone's talking all
 

6607
01:36:19,520 --> 01:36:21,870
example. Or where everyone's talking all
day to their AI advisers, and the AI

6608
01:36:21,870 --> 01:36:21,880
day to their AI advisers, and the AI
 

6609
01:36:21,880 --> 01:36:24,950
day to their AI advisers, and the AI
advisers are like subtly steering them

6610
01:36:24,950 --> 01:36:24,960
advisers are like subtly steering them
 

6611
01:36:24,960 --> 01:36:27,070
advisers are like subtly steering them
away from voting for the candidate that

6612
01:36:27,070 --> 01:36:27,080
away from voting for the candidate that
 

6613
01:36:27,080 --> 01:36:28,070
away from voting for the candidate that
would

6614
01:36:28,070 --> 01:36:28,080
would
 

6615
01:36:28,080 --> 01:36:29,390
would
not be what the AI companies want

6616
01:36:29,390 --> 01:36:29,400
not be what the AI companies want
 

6617
01:36:29,400 --> 01:36:31,990
not be what the AI companies want
because the AI companies have this other

6618
01:36:31,990 --> 01:36:32,000
because the AI companies have this other
 

6619
01:36:32,000 --> 01:36:33,030
because the AI companies have this other
candidate that they like better, and

6620
01:36:33,030 --> 01:36:33,040
candidate that they like better, and
 

6621
01:36:33,040 --> 01:36:35,230
candidate that they like better, and
they're like secretly biasing their AIs

6622
01:36:35,230 --> 01:36:35,240
they're like secretly biasing their AIs
 

6623
01:36:35,240 --> 01:36:36,910
they're like secretly biasing their AIs
to like steer people towards voting for

6624
01:36:36,910 --> 01:36:36,920
to like steer people towards voting for
 

6625
01:36:36,920 --> 01:36:38,630
to like steer people towards voting for
that candidate, right? So, so we want to

6626
01:36:38,630 --> 01:36:38,640
that candidate, right? So, so we want to
 

6627
01:36:38,640 --> 01:36:40,230
that candidate, right? So, so we want to
be in a situation where

6628
01:36:40,230 --> 01:36:40,240
be in a situation where
 

6629
01:36:40,240 --> 01:36:41,590
be in a situation where
um

6630
01:36:41,590 --> 01:36:41,600
um
 

6631
01:36:41,600 --> 01:36:43,550
um
people have AIs that are actually

6632
01:36:43,550 --> 01:36:43,560
people have AIs that are actually
 

6633
01:36:43,560 --> 01:36:45,630
people have AIs that are actually
trustworthy and that are truth-seeking

6634
01:36:45,630 --> 01:36:45,640
trustworthy and that are truth-seeking
 

6635
01:36:45,640 --> 01:36:49,110
trustworthy and that are truth-seeking
AIs, honest AIs, and that don't have any

6636
01:36:49,110 --> 01:36:49,120
AIs, honest AIs, and that don't have any
 

6637
01:36:49,120 --> 01:36:50,710
AIs, honest AIs, and that don't have any
sort of like political agendas put into

6638
01:36:50,710 --> 01:36:50,720
sort of like political agendas put into
 

6639
01:36:50,720 --> 01:36:52,350
sort of like political agendas put into
them by the AI companies or by the

6640
01:36:52,350 --> 01:36:52,360
them by the AI companies or by the
 

6641
01:36:52,360 --> 01:36:53,390
them by the AI companies or by the
government. You know, you want to avoid

6642
01:36:53,390 --> 01:36:53,400
government. You know, you want to avoid
 

6643
01:36:53,400 --> 01:36:54,910
government. You know, you want to avoid
a situation where the AI company where

6644
01:36:54,910 --> 01:36:54,920
a situation where the AI company where
 

6645
01:36:54,920 --> 01:36:55,910
a situation where the AI company where
where the government has issued some

6646
01:36:55,910 --> 01:36:55,920
where the government has issued some
 

6647
01:36:55,920 --> 01:36:58,230
where the government has issued some
sort of secret order that like

6648
01:36:58,230 --> 01:36:58,240
sort of secret order that like
 

6649
01:36:58,240 --> 01:37:00,310
sort of secret order that like
the AIs have to be such and such a way.

6650
01:37:00,310 --> 01:37:00,320
the AIs have to be such and such a way.
 

6651
01:37:00,320 --> 01:37:01,550
the AIs have to be such and such a way.
Yeah, the Department of War dispute

6652
01:37:01,550 --> 01:37:01,560
Yeah, the Department of War dispute
 

6653
01:37:01,560 --> 01:37:03,590
Yeah, the Department of War dispute
versus Anthropic is like a an

6654
01:37:03,590 --> 01:37:03,600
versus Anthropic is like a an
 

6655
01:37:03,600 --> 01:37:04,950
versus Anthropic is like a an
interesting sort of foreshadowing of

6656
01:37:04,950 --> 01:37:04,960
interesting sort of foreshadowing of
 

6657
01:37:04,960 --> 01:37:05,870
interesting sort of foreshadowing of
this,

6658
01:37:05,870 --> 01:37:05,880
this,
 

6659
01:37:05,880 --> 01:37:08,710
this,
right? Where um Anthropic was giving

6660
01:37:08,710 --> 01:37:08,720
right? Where um Anthropic was giving
 

6661
01:37:08,720 --> 01:37:10,230
right? Where um Anthropic was giving
their AIs to the Department of War.

6662
01:37:10,230 --> 01:37:10,240
their AIs to the Department of War.
 

6663
01:37:10,240 --> 01:37:12,310
their AIs to the Department of War.
Department of War wanted to use them

6664
01:37:12,310 --> 01:37:12,320
Department of War wanted to use them
 

6665
01:37:12,320 --> 01:37:14,150
Department of War wanted to use them
for certain things and was upset that

6666
01:37:14,150 --> 01:37:14,160
for certain things and was upset that
 

6667
01:37:14,160 --> 01:37:16,230
for certain things and was upset that
Anthropic's AIs were like

6668
01:37:16,230 --> 01:37:16,240
Anthropic's AIs were like
 

6669
01:37:16,240 --> 01:37:17,670
Anthropic's AIs were like
not supposed to be used for those

6670
01:37:17,670 --> 01:37:17,680
not supposed to be used for those
 

6671
01:37:17,680 --> 01:37:19,670
not supposed to be used for those
things. Uh the things in particular were

6672
01:37:19,670 --> 01:37:19,680
things. Uh the things in particular were
 

6673
01:37:19,680 --> 01:37:21,630
things. Uh the things in particular were
domestic surveillance and

6674
01:37:21,630 --> 01:37:21,640
domestic surveillance and
 

6675
01:37:21,640 --> 01:37:22,990
domestic surveillance and
uh

6676
01:37:22,990 --> 01:37:23,000
uh
 

6677
01:37:23,000 --> 01:37:25,110
uh
autonomous robots.

6678
01:37:25,110 --> 01:37:25,120
autonomous robots.
 

6679
01:37:25,120 --> 01:37:26,270
autonomous robots.
There's going to be a lot more issues

6680
01:37:26,270 --> 01:37:26,280
There's going to be a lot more issues
 

6681
01:37:26,280 --> 01:37:27,510
There's going to be a lot more issues
like that coming up, and you want it to

6682
01:37:27,510 --> 01:37:27,520
like that coming up, and you want it to
 

6683
01:37:27,520 --> 01:37:29,390
like that coming up, and you want it to
be the case that like people know what

6684
01:37:29,390 --> 01:37:29,400
be the case that like people know what
 

6685
01:37:29,400 --> 01:37:30,510
be the case that like people know what
they're getting, and that if people are

6686
01:37:30,510 --> 01:37:30,520
they're getting, and that if people are
 

6687
01:37:30,520 --> 01:37:31,870
they're getting, and that if people are
like spending hours a day talking to

6688
01:37:31,870 --> 01:37:31,880
like spending hours a day talking to
 

6689
01:37:31,880 --> 01:37:34,150
like spending hours a day talking to
their chatbot, that chatbot doesn't have

6690
01:37:34,150 --> 01:37:34,160
their chatbot, that chatbot doesn't have
 

6691
01:37:34,160 --> 01:37:35,590
their chatbot, that chatbot doesn't have
political biases put into it or a secret

6692
01:37:35,590 --> 01:37:35,600
political biases put into it or a secret
 

6693
01:37:35,600 --> 01:37:37,430
political biases put into it or a secret
agenda or things like that, and instead

6694
01:37:37,430 --> 01:37:37,440
agenda or things like that, and instead
 

6695
01:37:37,440 --> 01:37:39,150
agenda or things like that, and instead
has been trained to like give honest,

6696
01:37:39,150 --> 01:37:39,160
has been trained to like give honest,
 

6697
01:37:39,160 --> 01:37:40,510
has been trained to like give honest,
true answers to things. And I think if

6698
01:37:40,510 --> 01:37:40,520
true answers to things. And I think if
 

6699
01:37:40,520 --> 01:37:42,190
true answers to things. And I think if
you can do that, it can improve the

6700
01:37:42,190 --> 01:37:42,200
you can do that, it can improve the
 

6701
01:37:42,200 --> 01:37:44,110
you can do that, it can improve the
discourse and help people to use their

6702
01:37:44,110 --> 01:37:44,120
discourse and help people to use their
 

6703
01:37:44,120 --> 01:37:46,750
discourse and help people to use their
votes to put even better regulations and

6704
01:37:46,750 --> 01:37:46,760
votes to put even better regulations and
 

6705
01:37:46,760 --> 01:37:48,430
votes to put even better regulations and
even better politicians in place, and so

6706
01:37:48,430 --> 01:37:48,440
even better politicians in place, and so
 

6707
01:37:48,440 --> 01:37:50,030
even better politicians in place, and so
forth. And you can sort of potentially

6708
01:37:50,030 --> 01:37:50,040
forth. And you can sort of potentially
 

6709
01:37:50,040 --> 01:37:53,150
forth. And you can sort of potentially
bootstrap this to having something where

6710
01:37:53,150 --> 01:37:53,160
bootstrap this to having something where
 

6711
01:37:53,160 --> 01:37:54,670
bootstrap this to having something where
people's power is even more secure than

6712
01:37:54,670 --> 01:37:54,680
people's power is even more secure than
 

6713
01:37:54,680 --> 01:37:55,870
people's power is even more secure than
it is today.

6714
01:37:55,870 --> 01:37:55,880
it is today.
 

6715
01:37:55,880 --> 01:37:57,230
it is today.
>> A lot of this stuff we've we've covered

6716
01:37:57,230 --> 01:37:57,240
>> A lot of this stuff we've we've covered
 

6717
01:37:57,240 --> 01:37:59,070
>> A lot of this stuff we've we've covered
in part. So, you know, the wars and

6718
01:37:59,070 --> 01:37:59,080
in part. So, you know, the wars and
 

6719
01:37:59,080 --> 01:38:00,070
in part. So, you know, the wars and
drones and missiles, we're already

6720
01:38:00,070 --> 01:38:00,080
drones and missiles, we're already
 

6721
01:38:00,080 --> 01:38:01,030
drones and missiles, we're already
seeing this around the world at the

6722
01:38:01,030 --> 01:38:01,040
seeing this around the world at the
 

6723
01:38:01,040 --> 01:38:02,470
seeing this around the world at the
moment, which is really, really

6724
01:38:02,470 --> 01:38:02,480
moment, which is really, really
 

6725
01:38:02,480 --> 01:38:04,230
moment, which is really, really
interesting. Um

6726
01:38:04,230 --> 01:38:04,240
interesting. Um
 

6727
01:38:04,240 --> 01:38:06,230
interesting. Um
and we've talked about robots

6728
01:38:06,230 --> 01:38:06,240
and we've talked about robots
 

6729
01:38:06,240 --> 01:38:07,990
and we've talked about robots
outnumbering humans as well, which is

6730
01:38:07,990 --> 01:38:08,000
outnumbering humans as well, which is
 

6731
01:38:08,000 --> 01:38:09,230
outnumbering humans as well, which is
part of this prediction. Some of the

6732
01:38:09,230 --> 01:38:09,240
part of this prediction. Some of the
 

6733
01:38:09,240 --> 01:38:10,310
part of this prediction. Some of the
ones down here I found to be really

6734
01:38:10,310 --> 01:38:10,320
ones down here I found to be really
 

6735
01:38:10,320 --> 01:38:12,350
ones down here I found to be really
curious, which is

6736
01:38:12,350 --> 01:38:12,360
curious, which is
 

6737
01:38:12,360 --> 01:38:14,590
curious, which is
people will be protected by AIs wherever

6738
01:38:14,590 --> 01:38:14,600
people will be protected by AIs wherever
 

6739
01:38:14,600 --> 01:38:15,590
people will be protected by AIs wherever
they go.

6740
01:38:15,590 --> 01:38:15,600
they go.
 

6741
01:38:15,600 --> 01:38:18,150
they go.
>> Mm, yeah. In this scenario,

6742
01:38:18,150 --> 01:38:18,160
>> Mm, yeah. In this scenario,
 

6743
01:38:18,160 --> 01:38:19,230
>> Mm, yeah. In this scenario,
they delay the creation of

6744
01:38:19,230 --> 01:38:19,240
they delay the creation of
 

6745
01:38:19,240 --> 01:38:21,670
they delay the creation of
superintelligence until 2040,

6746
01:38:21,670 --> 01:38:21,680
superintelligence until 2040,
 

6747
01:38:21,680 --> 01:38:23,710
superintelligence until 2040,
and they in fact they pause in 2035, but

6748
01:38:23,710 --> 01:38:23,720
and they in fact they pause in 2035, but
 

6749
01:38:23,720 --> 01:38:25,430
and they in fact they pause in 2035, but
then they let it go after that. And then

6750
01:38:25,430 --> 01:38:25,440
then they let it go after that. And then
 

6751
01:38:25,440 --> 01:38:26,790
then they let it go after that. And then
they let the AIs become vastly

6752
01:38:26,790 --> 01:38:26,800
they let the AIs become vastly
 

6753
01:38:26,800 --> 01:38:28,350
they let the AIs become vastly
superintelligent.

6754
01:38:28,350 --> 01:38:28,360
superintelligent.
 

6755
01:38:28,360 --> 01:38:30,830
superintelligent.
And we think that once the AIs are

6756
01:38:30,830 --> 01:38:30,840
And we think that once the AIs are
 

6757
01:38:30,840 --> 01:38:32,630
And we think that once the AIs are
vastly superintelligent,

6758
01:38:32,630 --> 01:38:32,640
vastly superintelligent,
 

6759
01:38:32,640 --> 01:38:34,110
vastly superintelligent,
the world will transform even more

6760
01:38:34,110 --> 01:38:34,120
the world will transform even more
 

6761
01:38:34,120 --> 01:38:35,830
the world will transform even more
radically than

6762
01:38:35,830 --> 01:38:35,840
radically than
 

6763
01:38:35,840 --> 01:38:37,670
radically than
what happens in the 2030s in this

6764
01:38:37,670 --> 01:38:37,680
what happens in the 2030s in this
 

6765
01:38:37,680 --> 01:38:39,350
what happens in the 2030s in this
scenario. So, in the 2030s in this

6766
01:38:39,350 --> 01:38:39,360
scenario. So, in the 2030s in this
 

6767
01:38:39,360 --> 01:38:41,390
scenario. So, in the 2030s in this
scenario, it's more like human level,

6768
01:38:41,390 --> 01:38:41,400
scenario, it's more like human level,
 

6769
01:38:41,400 --> 01:38:43,830
scenario, it's more like human level,
you know, the AIs are not

6770
01:38:43,830 --> 01:38:43,840
you know, the AIs are not
 

6771
01:38:43,840 --> 01:38:44,950
you know, the AIs are not
they're they're doing the same sorts of

6772
01:38:44,950 --> 01:38:44,960
they're they're doing the same sorts of
 

6773
01:38:44,960 --> 01:38:45,950
they're they're doing the same sorts of
things that human experts would have

6774
01:38:45,950 --> 01:38:45,960
things that human experts would have
 

6775
01:38:45,960 --> 01:38:46,990
things that human experts would have
done, they're just doing it a little bit

6776
01:38:46,990 --> 01:38:47,000
done, they're just doing it a little bit
 

6777
01:38:47,000 --> 01:38:49,270
done, they're just doing it a little bit
better, a bit faster, and a lot cheaper.

6778
01:38:49,270 --> 01:38:49,280
better, a bit faster, and a lot cheaper.
 

6779
01:38:49,280 --> 01:38:50,790
better, a bit faster, and a lot cheaper.
And there's a lot more of them.

6780
01:38:50,790 --> 01:38:50,800
And there's a lot more of them.
 

6781
01:38:50,800 --> 01:38:52,270
And there's a lot more of them.
And the robots are still, you know,

6782
01:38:52,270 --> 01:38:52,280
And the robots are still, you know,
 

6783
01:38:52,280 --> 01:38:53,350
And the robots are still, you know,
doing the same sorts of things that

6784
01:38:53,350 --> 01:38:53,360
doing the same sorts of things that
 

6785
01:38:53,360 --> 01:38:54,830
doing the same sorts of things that
human workers would have done. They're

6786
01:38:54,830 --> 01:38:54,840
human workers would have done. They're
 

6787
01:38:54,840 --> 01:38:57,070
human workers would have done. They're
just more of them, and they're cheaper.

6788
01:38:57,070 --> 01:38:57,080
just more of them, and they're cheaper.
 

6789
01:38:57,080 --> 01:39:00,070
just more of them, and they're cheaper.
And because of exponential growth, uh

6790
01:39:00,070 --> 01:39:00,080
And because of exponential growth, uh
 

6791
01:39:00,080 --> 01:39:01,550
And because of exponential growth, uh
you start with a world that looks not

6792
01:39:01,550 --> 01:39:01,560
you start with a world that looks not
 

6793
01:39:01,560 --> 01:39:03,670
you start with a world that looks not
that different from today in 2029, and

6794
01:39:03,670 --> 01:39:03,680
that different from today in 2029, and
 

6795
01:39:03,680 --> 01:39:05,630
that different from today in 2029, and
then by 2039, you end in a world that's

6796
01:39:05,630 --> 01:39:05,640
then by 2039, you end in a world that's
 

6797
01:39:05,640 --> 01:39:07,230
then by 2039, you end in a world that's
radically transformed, where everyone's

6798
01:39:07,230 --> 01:39:07,240
radically transformed, where everyone's
 

6799
01:39:07,240 --> 01:39:08,350
radically transformed, where everyone's
living in these like fancy new

6800
01:39:08,350 --> 01:39:08,360
living in these like fancy new
 

6801
01:39:08,360 --> 01:39:09,710
living in these like fancy new
apartments that were built by robots 2

6802
01:39:09,710 --> 01:39:09,720
apartments that were built by robots 2
 

6803
01:39:09,720 --> 01:39:11,990
apartments that were built by robots 2
years ago. There's like giant special

6804
01:39:11,990 --> 01:39:12,000
years ago. There's like giant special
 

6805
01:39:12,000 --> 01:39:14,350
years ago. There's like giant special
economic zones that are full of robots

6806
01:39:14,350 --> 01:39:14,360
economic zones that are full of robots
 

6807
01:39:14,360 --> 01:39:16,070
economic zones that are full of robots
and solar panels and factories producing

6808
01:39:16,070 --> 01:39:16,080
and solar panels and factories producing
 

6809
01:39:16,080 --> 01:39:17,190
and solar panels and factories producing
more robots and solar panels and

6810
01:39:17,190 --> 01:39:17,200
more robots and solar panels and
 

6811
01:39:17,200 --> 01:39:19,030
more robots and solar panels and
factories, and so forth. Most of the

6812
01:39:19,030 --> 01:39:19,040
factories, and so forth. Most of the
 

6813
01:39:19,040 --> 01:39:21,670
factories, and so forth. Most of the
economy is AIs and robots, and people

6814
01:39:21,670 --> 01:39:21,680
economy is AIs and robots, and people
 

6815
01:39:21,680 --> 01:39:23,030
economy is AIs and robots, and people
don't have jobs anymore. That sort of

6816
01:39:23,030 --> 01:39:23,040
don't have jobs anymore. That sort of
 

6817
01:39:23,040 --> 01:39:24,470
don't have jobs anymore. That sort of
transformation is what you get if you

6818
01:39:24,470 --> 01:39:24,480
transformation is what you get if you
 

6819
01:39:24,480 --> 01:39:26,510
transformation is what you get if you
pause at human level.

6820
01:39:26,510 --> 01:39:26,520
pause at human level.
 

6821
01:39:26,520 --> 01:39:27,830
pause at human level.
But if you go beyond the

6822
01:39:27,830 --> 01:39:27,840
But if you go beyond the
 

6823
01:39:27,840 --> 01:39:29,270
But if you go beyond the
superintelligence,

6824
01:39:29,270 --> 01:39:29,280
superintelligence,
 

6825
01:39:29,280 --> 01:39:30,510
superintelligence,
there's a whole 'nother transformation

6826
01:39:30,510 --> 01:39:30,520
there's a whole 'nother transformation
 

6827
01:39:30,520 --> 01:39:31,950
there's a whole 'nother transformation
coming that's going to look more like

6828
01:39:31,950 --> 01:39:31,960
coming that's going to look more like
 

6829
01:39:31,960 --> 01:39:33,870
coming that's going to look more like
magic. Think about how the technology of

6830
01:39:33,870 --> 01:39:33,880
magic. Think about how the technology of
 

6831
01:39:33,880 --> 01:39:34,830
magic. Think about how the technology of
today

6832
01:39:34,830 --> 01:39:34,840
today
 

6833
01:39:34,840 --> 01:39:36,590
today
would look like magic to someone from

6834
01:39:36,590 --> 01:39:36,600
would look like magic to someone from
 

6835
01:39:36,600 --> 01:39:37,510
would look like magic to someone from
500 years ago.

6836
01:39:37,510 --> 01:39:37,520
500 years ago.
 

6837
01:39:37,520 --> 01:39:38,110
500 years ago.
>> Mhm.

6838
01:39:38,110 --> 01:39:38,120
>> Mhm.
 

6839
01:39:38,120 --> 01:39:40,190
>> Mhm.
>> You know? And that's without even like a

6840
01:39:40,190 --> 01:39:40,200
>> You know? And that's without even like a
 

6841
01:39:40,200 --> 01:39:42,150
>> You know? And that's without even like a
qualitative improvement in intelligence,

6842
01:39:42,150 --> 01:39:42,160
qualitative improvement in intelligence,
 

6843
01:39:42,160 --> 01:39:43,990
qualitative improvement in intelligence,
right? Like the humans of today aren't

6844
01:39:43,990 --> 01:39:44,000
right? Like the humans of today aren't
 

6845
01:39:44,000 --> 01:39:45,390
right? Like the humans of today aren't
like qualitatively smarter than the

6846
01:39:45,390 --> 01:39:45,400
like qualitatively smarter than the
 

6847
01:39:45,400 --> 01:39:47,030
like qualitatively smarter than the
humans from 500 years ago. It's just

6848
01:39:47,030 --> 01:39:47,040
humans from 500 years ago. It's just
 

6849
01:39:47,040 --> 01:39:49,150
humans from 500 years ago. It's just
that we've had more time to do research

6850
01:39:49,150 --> 01:39:49,160
that we've had more time to do research
 

6851
01:39:49,160 --> 01:39:50,470
that we've had more time to do research
and we have more like money and

6852
01:39:50,470 --> 01:39:50,480
and we have more like money and
 

6853
01:39:50,480 --> 01:39:52,070
and we have more like money and
resources to build,

6854
01:39:52,070 --> 01:39:52,080
resources to build,
 

6855
01:39:52,080 --> 01:39:53,710
resources to build,
you know, prototypes and experiments and

6856
01:39:53,710 --> 01:39:53,720
you know, prototypes and experiments and
 

6857
01:39:53,720 --> 01:39:55,950
you know, prototypes and experiments and
run experiments and so forth. But if you

6858
01:39:55,950 --> 01:39:55,960
run experiments and so forth. But if you
 

6859
01:39:55,960 --> 01:39:57,550
run experiments and so forth. But if you
had a point where there were billions

6860
01:39:57,550 --> 01:39:57,560
had a point where there were billions
 

6861
01:39:57,560 --> 01:40:00,470
had a point where there were billions
and billions of AIs that were not only

6862
01:40:00,470 --> 01:40:00,480
and billions of AIs that were not only
 

6863
01:40:00,480 --> 01:40:01,830
and billions of AIs that were not only
faster than humans, but like

6864
01:40:01,830 --> 01:40:01,840
faster than humans, but like
 

6865
01:40:01,840 --> 01:40:04,190
faster than humans, but like
qualitatively way, way, way better at

6866
01:40:04,190 --> 01:40:04,200
qualitatively way, way, way better at
 

6867
01:40:04,200 --> 01:40:05,950
qualitatively way, way, way better at
everything and in particular at doing

6868
01:40:05,950 --> 01:40:05,960
everything and in particular at doing
 

6869
01:40:05,960 --> 01:40:07,950
everything and in particular at doing
scientific research, we should expect

6870
01:40:07,950 --> 01:40:07,960
scientific research, we should expect
 

6871
01:40:07,960 --> 01:40:08,950
scientific research, we should expect
that some of the things that they

6872
01:40:08,950 --> 01:40:08,960
that some of the things that they
 

6873
01:40:08,960 --> 01:40:11,510
that some of the things that they
develop will seem like magic to us and

6874
01:40:11,510 --> 01:40:11,520
develop will seem like magic to us and
 

6875
01:40:11,520 --> 01:40:13,550
develop will seem like magic to us and
we'll just completely like we did not

6876
01:40:13,550 --> 01:40:13,560
we'll just completely like we did not
 

6877
01:40:13,560 --> 01:40:15,270
we'll just completely like we did not
think that was even possible, you know?

6878
01:40:15,270 --> 01:40:15,280
think that was even possible, you know?
 

6879
01:40:15,280 --> 01:40:16,470
think that was even possible, you know?
People don't want to die. People don't

6880
01:40:16,470 --> 01:40:16,480
People don't want to die. People don't
 

6881
01:40:16,480 --> 01:40:17,870
People don't want to die. People don't
want to be hit by cars. People don't

6882
01:40:17,870 --> 01:40:17,880
want to be hit by cars. People don't
 

6883
01:40:17,880 --> 01:40:19,910
want to be hit by cars. People don't
want to be like attacked by a random

6884
01:40:19,910 --> 01:40:19,920
want to be like attacked by a random
 

6885
01:40:19,920 --> 01:40:20,950
want to be like attacked by a random
mass murderer.

6886
01:40:20,950 --> 01:40:20,960
mass murderer.
 

6887
01:40:20,960 --> 01:40:22,350
mass murderer.
>> Cancer's gone?

6888
01:40:22,350 --> 01:40:22,360
>> Cancer's gone?
 

6889
01:40:22,360 --> 01:40:24,094
>> Cancer's gone?
>> I mean, not just cancer, like

6890
01:40:24,094 --> 01:40:24,104
>> I mean, not just cancer, like
 

6891
01:40:24,104 --> 01:40:24,150
>> I mean, not just cancer, like
>> [snorts]

6892
01:40:24,150 --> 01:40:24,160
>> [snorts]
 

6893
01:40:24,160 --> 01:40:25,390
>> [snorts]
>> you know, all all a lot of the stuff

6894
01:40:25,390 --> 01:40:25,400
>> you know, all all a lot of the stuff
 

6895
01:40:25,400 --> 01:40:26,870
>> you know, all all a lot of the stuff
that happens in science fiction will

6896
01:40:26,870 --> 01:40:26,880
that happens in science fiction will
 

6897
01:40:26,880 --> 01:40:28,030
that happens in science fiction will
probably have happened by then. So,

6898
01:40:28,030 --> 01:40:28,040
probably have happened by then. So,
 

6899
01:40:28,040 --> 01:40:29,630
probably have happened by then. So,
things like people scanning their brains

6900
01:40:29,630 --> 01:40:29,640
things like people scanning their brains
 

6901
01:40:29,640 --> 01:40:32,110
things like people scanning their brains
and uploading into into computers,

6902
01:40:32,110 --> 01:40:32,120
and uploading into into computers,
 

6903
01:40:32,120 --> 01:40:35,270
and uploading into into computers,
right? Or self-replicating robots

6904
01:40:35,270 --> 01:40:35,280
right? Or self-replicating robots
 

6905
01:40:35,280 --> 01:40:36,910
right? Or self-replicating robots
in the asteroid belt

6906
01:40:36,910 --> 01:40:36,920
in the asteroid belt
 

6907
01:40:36,920 --> 01:40:40,230
in the asteroid belt
uh creating more and more satellites to

6908
01:40:40,230 --> 01:40:40,240
uh creating more and more satellites to
 

6909
01:40:40,240 --> 01:40:41,470
uh creating more and more satellites to
uh produce more and more power to

6910
01:40:41,470 --> 01:40:41,480
uh produce more and more power to
 

6911
01:40:41,480 --> 01:40:42,950
uh produce more and more power to
produce more and more self-replicating

6912
01:40:42,950 --> 01:40:42,960
produce more and more self-replicating
 

6913
01:40:42,960 --> 01:40:43,790
produce more and more self-replicating
robots and so forth.

6914
01:40:43,790 --> 01:40:43,800
robots and so forth.
 

6915
01:40:43,800 --> 01:40:45,510
robots and so forth.
>> Most people still live on Earth, but the

6916
01:40:45,510 --> 01:40:45,520
>> Most people still live on Earth, but the
 

6917
01:40:45,520 --> 01:40:46,910
>> Most people still live on Earth, but the
trend is to move to space?

6918
01:40:46,910 --> 01:40:46,920
trend is to move to space?
 

6919
01:40:46,920 --> 01:40:49,190
trend is to move to space?
>> That's right. Yeah. So, like if

6920
01:40:49,190 --> 01:40:49,200
>> That's right. Yeah. So, like if
 

6921
01:40:49,200 --> 01:40:50,670
>> That's right. Yeah. So, like if
if you end up in the situation where the

6922
01:40:50,670 --> 01:40:50,680
if you end up in the situation where the
 

6923
01:40:50,680 --> 01:40:51,950
if you end up in the situation where the
entire

6924
01:40:51,950 --> 01:40:51,960
entire
 

6925
01:40:51,960 --> 01:40:54,150
entire
human economy

6926
01:40:54,150 --> 01:40:54,160
human economy
 

6927
01:40:54,160 --> 01:40:56,430
human economy
is just like a tiny drop in the bucket

6928
01:40:56,430 --> 01:40:56,440
is just like a tiny drop in the bucket
 

6929
01:40:56,440 --> 01:40:58,430
is just like a tiny drop in the bucket
that is the entire economy and it's just

6930
01:40:58,430 --> 01:40:58,440
that is the entire economy and it's just
 

6931
01:40:58,440 --> 01:41:01,510
that is the entire economy and it's just
like a huge amounts of robots and AIs

6932
01:41:01,510 --> 01:41:01,520
like a huge amounts of robots and AIs
 

6933
01:41:01,520 --> 01:41:02,830
like a huge amounts of robots and AIs
that are

6934
01:41:02,830 --> 01:41:02,840
that are
 

6935
01:41:02,840 --> 01:41:04,750
that are
moving incredibly quickly, then what you

6936
01:41:04,750 --> 01:41:04,760
moving incredibly quickly, then what you
 

6937
01:41:04,760 --> 01:41:07,310
moving incredibly quickly, then what you
want is Earth to be

6938
01:41:07,310 --> 01:41:07,320
want is Earth to be
 

6939
01:41:07,320 --> 01:41:08,550
want is Earth to be
mostly left as something like a

6940
01:41:08,550 --> 01:41:08,560
mostly left as something like a
 

6941
01:41:08,560 --> 01:41:09,710
mostly left as something like a
preserve,

6942
01:41:09,710 --> 01:41:09,720
preserve,
 

6943
01:41:09,720 --> 01:41:12,030
preserve,
you know? I think a lot of people are

6944
01:41:12,030 --> 01:41:12,040
you know? I think a lot of people are
 

6945
01:41:12,040 --> 01:41:12,950
you know? I think a lot of people are
worried about the environment being

6946
01:41:12,950 --> 01:41:12,960
worried about the environment being
 

6947
01:41:12,960 --> 01:41:14,030
worried about the environment being
destroyed,

6948
01:41:14,030 --> 01:41:14,040
destroyed,
 

6949
01:41:14,040 --> 01:41:15,150
destroyed,
which it totally would be if it wasn't

6950
01:41:15,150 --> 01:41:15,160
which it totally would be if it wasn't
 

6951
01:41:15,160 --> 01:41:17,670
which it totally would be if it wasn't
protected. And uh

6952
01:41:17,670 --> 01:41:17,680
protected. And uh
 

6953
01:41:17,680 --> 01:41:18,630
protected. And uh
you know, there's a lot of people who

6954
01:41:18,630 --> 01:41:18,640
you know, there's a lot of people who
 

6955
01:41:18,640 --> 01:41:20,630
you know, there's a lot of people who
sort of like their lives as it is

6956
01:41:20,630 --> 01:41:20,640
sort of like their lives as it is
 

6957
01:41:20,640 --> 01:41:23,870
sort of like their lives as it is
and don't want to be uploaded or live in

6958
01:41:23,870 --> 01:41:23,880
and don't want to be uploaded or live in
 

6959
01:41:23,880 --> 01:41:25,950
and don't want to be uploaded or live in
some crazy new future thing. And it

6960
01:41:25,950 --> 01:41:25,960
some crazy new future thing. And it
 

6961
01:41:25,960 --> 01:41:27,750
some crazy new future thing. And it
seems to us like the reasonable solution

6962
01:41:27,750 --> 01:41:27,760
seems to us like the reasonable solution
 

6963
01:41:27,760 --> 01:41:29,510
seems to us like the reasonable solution
to these issues is

6964
01:41:29,510 --> 01:41:29,520
to these issues is
 

6965
01:41:29,520 --> 01:41:31,590
to these issues is
uh create new living spaces off the

6966
01:41:31,590 --> 01:41:31,600
uh create new living spaces off the
 

6967
01:41:31,600 --> 01:41:34,550
uh create new living spaces off the
planet with some of that vast

6968
01:41:34,550 --> 01:41:34,560
planet with some of that vast
 

6969
01:41:34,560 --> 01:41:35,750
planet with some of that vast
economic wealth and activity that's

6970
01:41:35,750 --> 01:41:35,760
economic wealth and activity that's
 

6971
01:41:35,760 --> 01:41:36,710
economic wealth and activity that's
happening

6972
01:41:36,710 --> 01:41:36,720
happening
 

6973
01:41:36,720 --> 01:41:37,670
happening
for the people who want that sort of

6974
01:41:37,670 --> 01:41:37,680
for the people who want that sort of
 

6975
01:41:37,680 --> 01:41:39,830
for the people who want that sort of
thing. And then that way the Earth can

6976
01:41:39,830 --> 01:41:39,840
thing. And then that way the Earth can
 

6977
01:41:39,840 --> 01:41:41,110
thing. And then that way the Earth can
be preserved.

6978
01:41:41,110 --> 01:41:41,120
be preserved.
 

6979
01:41:41,120 --> 01:41:43,270
be preserved.
>> Data center picture here of data centers

6980
01:41:43,270 --> 01:41:43,280
>> Data center picture here of data centers
 

6981
01:41:43,280 --> 01:41:46,270
>> Data center picture here of data centers
in the ocean. Uh I mean, there's three

6982
01:41:46,270 --> 01:41:46,280
in the ocean. Uh I mean, there's three
 

6983
01:41:46,280 --> 01:41:48,030
in the ocean. Uh I mean, there's three
images there of

6984
01:41:48,030 --> 01:41:48,040
images there of
 

6985
01:41:48,040 --> 01:41:49,110
images there of
different environments where humans

6986
01:41:49,110 --> 01:41:49,120
different environments where humans
 

6987
01:41:49,120 --> 01:41:50,310
different environments where humans
might live.

6988
01:41:50,310 --> 01:41:50,320
might live.
 

6989
01:41:50,320 --> 01:41:53,190
might live.
>> Again, like our proposal was you

6990
01:41:53,190 --> 01:41:53,200
>> Again, like our proposal was you
 

6991
01:41:53,200 --> 01:41:55,790
>> Again, like our proposal was you
preserve like 99% of the Earth

6992
01:41:55,790 --> 01:41:55,800
preserve like 99% of the Earth
 

6993
01:41:55,800 --> 01:41:57,990
preserve like 99% of the Earth
uh mostly as is as historic or

6994
01:41:57,990 --> 01:41:58,000
uh mostly as is as historic or
 

6995
01:41:58,000 --> 01:41:59,790
uh mostly as is as historic or
environmental from as historic or

6996
01:41:59,790 --> 01:41:59,800
environmental from as historic or
 

6997
01:41:59,800 --> 01:42:01,510
environmental from as historic or
environmental reasons, but then like

6998
01:42:01,510 --> 01:42:01,520
environmental reasons, but then like
 

6999
01:42:01,520 --> 01:42:02,710
environmental reasons, but then like
some parts of it you designate as

7000
01:42:02,710 --> 01:42:02,720
some parts of it you designate as
 

7001
01:42:02,720 --> 01:42:04,630
some parts of it you designate as
special economic zones where the robots

7002
01:42:04,630 --> 01:42:04,640
special economic zones where the robots
 

7003
01:42:04,640 --> 01:42:07,230
special economic zones where the robots
can go crazy and dig giant pit mines and

7004
01:42:07,230 --> 01:42:07,240
can go crazy and dig giant pit mines and
 

7005
01:42:07,240 --> 01:42:09,270
can go crazy and dig giant pit mines and
produce factories and so forth.

7006
01:42:09,270 --> 01:42:09,280
produce factories and so forth.
 

7007
01:42:09,280 --> 01:42:10,230
produce factories and so forth.
Um

7008
01:42:10,230 --> 01:42:10,240
Um
 

7009
01:42:10,240 --> 01:42:11,270
Um
we were thinking it would be good to

7010
01:42:11,270 --> 01:42:11,280
we were thinking it would be good to
 

7011
01:42:11,280 --> 01:42:12,830
we were thinking it would be good to
build the data centers on the ocean

7012
01:42:12,830 --> 01:42:12,840
build the data centers on the ocean
 

7013
01:42:12,840 --> 01:42:14,950
build the data centers on the ocean
instead of um on land for a variety of

7014
01:42:14,950 --> 01:42:14,960
instead of um on land for a variety of
 

7015
01:42:14,960 --> 01:42:17,550
instead of um on land for a variety of
reasons, although later space would be

7016
01:42:17,550 --> 01:42:17,560
reasons, although later space would be
 

7017
01:42:17,560 --> 01:42:19,310
reasons, although later space would be
better and

7018
01:42:19,310 --> 01:42:19,320
better and
 

7019
01:42:19,320 --> 01:42:20,310
better and
I could see that being reasonable as

7020
01:42:20,310 --> 01:42:20,320
I could see that being reasonable as
 

7021
01:42:20,320 --> 01:42:20,990
I could see that being reasonable as
well.

7022
01:42:20,990 --> 01:42:21,000
well.
 

7023
01:42:21,000 --> 01:42:24,550
well.
>> What about immortality in a world of AI?

7024
01:42:24,550 --> 01:42:24,560
>> What about immortality in a world of AI?
 

7025
01:42:24,560 --> 01:42:27,830
>> What about immortality in a world of AI?
Um 20 Well, 30, 45, you say you've lived

7026
01:42:27,830 --> 01:42:27,840
Um 20 Well, 30, 45, you say you've lived
 

7027
01:42:27,840 --> 01:42:29,710
Um 20 Well, 30, 45, you say you've lived
a dozen lifetimes and are immortal

7028
01:42:29,710 --> 01:42:29,720
a dozen lifetimes and are immortal
 

7029
01:42:29,720 --> 01:42:31,910
a dozen lifetimes and are immortal
passing from life to life

7030
01:42:31,910 --> 01:42:31,920
passing from life to life
 

7031
01:42:31,920 --> 01:42:34,590
passing from life to life
as if by reincarnation.

7032
01:42:34,590 --> 01:42:34,600
as if by reincarnation.
 

7033
01:42:34,600 --> 01:42:35,630
as if by reincarnation.
I mean, there's a lot of billionaires at

7034
01:42:35,630 --> 01:42:35,640
I mean, there's a lot of billionaires at
 

7035
01:42:35,640 --> 01:42:36,550
I mean, there's a lot of billionaires at
the moment that are focused on

7036
01:42:36,550 --> 01:42:36,560
the moment that are focused on
 

7037
01:42:36,560 --> 01:42:38,430
the moment that are focused on
longevity. I mean, Brian Johnson's said

7038
01:42:38,430 --> 01:42:38,440
longevity. I mean, Brian Johnson's said
 

7039
01:42:38,440 --> 01:42:40,510
longevity. I mean, Brian Johnson's said
he's got this central rule, which is do

7040
01:42:40,510 --> 01:42:40,520
he's got this central rule, which is do
 

7041
01:42:40,520 --> 01:42:42,910
he's got this central rule, which is do
not die right now Yeah. Because we're in

7042
01:42:42,910 --> 01:42:42,920
not die right now Yeah. Because we're in
 

7043
01:42:42,920 --> 01:42:44,830
not die right now Yeah. Because we're in
the age of AI and it's conceivable that

7044
01:42:44,830 --> 01:42:44,840
the age of AI and it's conceivable that
 

7045
01:42:44,840 --> 01:42:46,390
the age of AI and it's conceivable that
with superintelligence we'll be able to

7046
01:42:46,390 --> 01:42:46,400
with superintelligence we'll be able to
 

7047
01:42:46,400 --> 01:42:47,630
with superintelligence we'll be able to
choose when we die.

7048
01:42:47,630 --> 01:42:47,640
choose when we die.
 

7049
01:42:47,640 --> 01:42:49,470
choose when we die.
>> Yep. I think that's probably right. We

7050
01:42:49,470 --> 01:42:49,480
>> Yep. I think that's probably right. We
 

7051
01:42:49,480 --> 01:42:51,030
>> Yep. I think that's probably right. We
don't depict that happening in this part

7052
01:42:51,030 --> 01:42:51,040
don't depict that happening in this part
 

7053
01:42:51,040 --> 01:42:52,990
don't depict that happening in this part
because at this part they only have, you

7054
01:42:52,990 --> 01:42:53,000
because at this part they only have, you
 

7055
01:42:53,000 --> 01:42:55,790
because at this part they only have, you
know, human-level AIs, but that's one of

7056
01:42:55,790 --> 01:42:55,800
know, human-level AIs, but that's one of
 

7057
01:42:55,800 --> 01:42:57,950
know, human-level AIs, but that's one of
those things that seems quite plausible

7058
01:42:57,950 --> 01:42:57,960
those things that seems quite plausible
 

7059
01:42:57,960 --> 01:43:01,510
those things that seems quite plausible
that superintelligence could achieve um

7060
01:43:01,510 --> 01:43:01,520
that superintelligence could achieve um
 

7061
01:43:01,520 --> 01:43:05,750
that superintelligence could achieve um
through a variety of means.

7062
01:43:05,750 --> 01:43:05,760

 

7063
01:43:05,760 --> 01:43:06,950

>> What is your hope with all of this

7064
01:43:06,950 --> 01:43:06,960
>> What is your hope with all of this
 

7065
01:43:06,960 --> 01:43:07,990
>> What is your hope with all of this
stuff?

7066
01:43:07,990 --> 01:43:08,000
stuff?
 

7067
01:43:08,000 --> 01:43:09,070
stuff?
And why did you do this? Why did you

7068
01:43:09,070 --> 01:43:09,080
And why did you do this? Why did you
 

7069
01:43:09,080 --> 01:43:11,110
And why did you do this? Why did you
make this 2040 plan A?

7070
01:43:11,110 --> 01:43:11,120
make this 2040 plan A?
 

7071
01:43:11,120 --> 01:43:13,110
make this 2040 plan A?
>> In the like first week after we

7072
01:43:13,110 --> 01:43:13,120
>> In the like first week after we
 

7073
01:43:13,120 --> 01:43:15,750
>> In the like first week after we
published AI 2027, it it blew up a lot

7074
01:43:15,750 --> 01:43:15,760
published AI 2027, it it blew up a lot
 

7075
01:43:15,760 --> 01:43:16,950
published AI 2027, it it blew up a lot
bigger than we expected, by the way.

7076
01:43:16,950 --> 01:43:16,960
bigger than we expected, by the way.
 

7077
01:43:16,960 --> 01:43:20,310
bigger than we expected, by the way.
Like after we published AI 2027, it it

7078
01:43:20,310 --> 01:43:20,320
Like after we published AI 2027, it it
 

7079
01:43:20,320 --> 01:43:21,630
Like after we published AI 2027, it it
blew up a lot bigger than we expected,

7080
01:43:21,630 --> 01:43:21,640
blew up a lot bigger than we expected,
 

7081
01:43:21,640 --> 01:43:23,670
blew up a lot bigger than we expected,
by the way. Like we actually made

7082
01:43:23,670 --> 01:43:23,680
by the way. Like we actually made
 

7083
01:43:23,680 --> 01:43:26,070
by the way. Like we actually made
forecasts beforehand of like

7084
01:43:26,070 --> 01:43:26,080
forecasts beforehand of like
 

7085
01:43:26,080 --> 01:43:27,190
forecasts beforehand of like
how many views it would get and stuff

7086
01:43:27,190 --> 01:43:27,200
how many views it would get and stuff
 

7087
01:43:27,200 --> 01:43:28,870
how many views it would get and stuff
like that and it was like

7088
01:43:28,870 --> 01:43:28,880
like that and it was like
 

7089
01:43:28,880 --> 01:43:31,310
like that and it was like
90th percentile outcome. So, like

7090
01:43:31,310 --> 01:43:31,320
90th percentile outcome. So, like
 

7091
01:43:31,320 --> 01:43:34,190
90th percentile outcome. So, like
um very much not what we expected. Um

7092
01:43:34,190 --> 01:43:34,200
um very much not what we expected. Um
 

7093
01:43:34,200 --> 01:43:35,350
um very much not what we expected. Um
but in like the Twitter storm that

7094
01:43:35,350 --> 01:43:35,360
but in like the Twitter storm that
 

7095
01:43:35,360 --> 01:43:38,190
but in like the Twitter storm that
happened various people were like

7096
01:43:38,190 --> 01:43:38,200
happened various people were like
 

7097
01:43:38,200 --> 01:43:39,270
happened various people were like
all right, why are you giving us all

7098
01:43:39,270 --> 01:43:39,280
all right, why are you giving us all
 

7099
01:43:39,280 --> 01:43:41,630
all right, why are you giving us all
this like doom and gloom uh

7100
01:43:41,630 --> 01:43:41,640
this like doom and gloom uh
 

7101
01:43:41,640 --> 01:43:43,270
this like doom and gloom uh
predictions? Like how about a more

7102
01:43:43,270 --> 01:43:43,280
predictions? Like how about a more
 

7103
01:43:43,280 --> 01:43:45,150
predictions? Like how about a more
positive vision of like what you think

7104
01:43:45,150 --> 01:43:45,160
positive vision of like what you think
 

7105
01:43:45,160 --> 01:43:46,950
positive vision of like what you think
we should do instead? And I think that

7106
01:43:46,950 --> 01:43:46,960
we should do instead? And I think that
 

7107
01:43:46,960 --> 01:43:48,950
we should do instead? And I think that
that seed sort of like

7108
01:43:48,950 --> 01:43:48,960
that seed sort of like
 

7109
01:43:48,960 --> 01:43:50,390
that seed sort of like
implanted in us and then we were like,

7110
01:43:50,390 --> 01:43:50,400
implanted in us and then we were like,
 

7111
01:43:50,400 --> 01:43:52,190
implanted in us and then we were like,
yeah, that's reasonable. Like we've sort

7112
01:43:52,190 --> 01:43:52,200
yeah, that's reasonable. Like we've sort
 

7113
01:43:52,200 --> 01:43:53,990
yeah, that's reasonable. Like we've sort
of depicted what we think the default

7114
01:43:53,990 --> 01:43:54,000
of depicted what we think the default
 

7115
01:43:54,000 --> 01:43:55,830
of depicted what we think the default
path looks like and why we think it's

7116
01:43:55,830 --> 01:43:55,840
path looks like and why we think it's
 

7117
01:43:55,840 --> 01:43:57,190
path looks like and why we think it's
pretty scary.

7118
01:43:57,190 --> 01:43:57,200
pretty scary.
 

7119
01:43:57,200 --> 01:44:00,230
pretty scary.
Now maybe we should switch tacks and

7120
01:44:00,230 --> 01:44:00,240
Now maybe we should switch tacks and
 

7121
01:44:00,240 --> 01:44:01,710
Now maybe we should switch tacks and
come up with some actual recommendations

7122
01:44:01,710 --> 01:44:01,720
come up with some actual recommendations
 

7123
01:44:01,720 --> 01:44:02,910
come up with some actual recommendations
and then depict that as well.

7124
01:44:02,910 --> 01:44:02,920
and then depict that as well.
 

7125
01:44:02,920 --> 01:44:03,830
and then depict that as well.
>> Even though you don't believe they're

7126
01:44:03,830 --> 01:44:03,840
>> Even though you don't believe they're
 

7127
01:44:03,840 --> 01:44:05,070
>> Even though you don't believe they're
pro-probable.

7128
01:44:05,070 --> 01:44:05,080
pro-probable.
 

7129
01:44:05,080 --> 01:44:06,310
pro-probable.
>> Yeah, I mean you can vote for a

7130
01:44:06,310 --> 01:44:06,320
>> Yeah, I mean you can vote for a
 

7131
01:44:06,320 --> 01:44:07,790
>> Yeah, I mean you can vote for a
political candidate even if you aren't

7132
01:44:07,790 --> 01:44:07,800
political candidate even if you aren't
 

7133
01:44:07,800 --> 01:44:09,390
political candidate even if you aren't
confident that they're going to win, you

7134
01:44:09,390 --> 01:44:09,400
confident that they're going to win, you
 

7135
01:44:09,400 --> 01:44:11,390
confident that they're going to win, you
know? And and you can say like here's

7136
01:44:11,390 --> 01:44:11,400
know? And and you can say like here's
 

7137
01:44:11,400 --> 01:44:13,310
know? And and you can say like here's
what I think we should do even if you

7138
01:44:13,310 --> 01:44:13,320
what I think we should do even if you
 

7139
01:44:13,320 --> 01:44:14,550
what I think we should do even if you
think that people are probably not going

7140
01:44:14,550 --> 01:44:14,560
think that people are probably not going
 

7141
01:44:14,560 --> 01:44:15,550
think that people are probably not going
to do it.

7142
01:44:15,550 --> 01:44:15,560
to do it.
 

7143
01:44:15,560 --> 01:44:16,710
to do it.
You shouldn't say this if you think it's

7144
01:44:16,710 --> 01:44:16,720
You shouldn't say this if you think it's
 

7145
01:44:16,720 --> 01:44:17,750
You shouldn't say this if you think it's
completely unlikely. Like if you think

7146
01:44:17,750 --> 01:44:17,760
completely unlikely. Like if you think
 

7147
01:44:17,760 --> 01:44:19,590
completely unlikely. Like if you think
there's no chance, then like maybe you

7148
01:44:19,590 --> 01:44:19,600
there's no chance, then like maybe you
 

7149
01:44:19,600 --> 01:44:20,870
there's no chance, then like maybe you
shouldn't bother. But we think there's a

7150
01:44:20,870 --> 01:44:20,880
shouldn't bother. But we think there's a
 

7151
01:44:20,880 --> 01:44:22,870
shouldn't bother. But we think there's a
chance. Like in particular, for the

7152
01:44:22,870 --> 01:44:22,880
chance. Like in particular, for the
 

7153
01:44:22,880 --> 01:44:23,990
chance. Like in particular, for the
reasons that we described in the

7154
01:44:23,990 --> 01:44:24,000
reasons that we described in the
 

7155
01:44:24,000 --> 01:44:26,350
reasons that we described in the
scenario we think that people are going

7156
01:44:26,350 --> 01:44:26,360
scenario we think that people are going
 

7157
01:44:26,360 --> 01:44:28,070
scenario we think that people are going
to wake up to the

7158
01:44:28,070 --> 01:44:28,080
to wake up to the
 

7159
01:44:28,080 --> 01:44:30,230
to wake up to the
power of AI over the next few years.

7160
01:44:30,230 --> 01:44:30,240
power of AI over the next few years.
 

7161
01:44:30,240 --> 01:44:32,230
power of AI over the next few years.
>> Because of something happens?

7162
01:44:32,230 --> 01:44:32,240
>> Because of something happens?
 

7163
01:44:32,240 --> 01:44:33,390
>> Because of something happens?
>> The companies are saying that they're

7164
01:44:33,390 --> 01:44:33,400
>> The companies are saying that they're
 

7165
01:44:33,400 --> 01:44:34,510
>> The companies are saying that they're
going to do this.

7166
01:44:34,510 --> 01:44:34,520
going to do this.
 

7167
01:44:34,520 --> 01:44:34,910
going to do this.
>> Mhm.

7168
01:44:34,910 --> 01:44:34,920
>> Mhm.
 

7169
01:44:34,920 --> 01:44:36,670
>> Mhm.
>> And [clears throat]

7170
01:44:36,670 --> 01:44:36,680
>> And [clears throat]
 

7171
01:44:36,680 --> 01:44:39,430
>> And [clears throat]
they are kind of on track and it just

7172
01:44:39,430 --> 01:44:39,440
they are kind of on track and it just
 

7173
01:44:39,440 --> 01:44:40,990
they are kind of on track and it just
sort of makes sense that like if they

7174
01:44:40,990 --> 01:44:41,000
sort of makes sense that like if they
 

7175
01:44:41,000 --> 01:44:42,590
sort of makes sense that like if they
get anywhere close

7176
01:44:42,590 --> 01:44:42,600
get anywhere close
 

7177
01:44:42,600 --> 01:44:45,030
get anywhere close
to this level of AI, then there's like

7178
01:44:45,030 --> 01:44:45,040
to this level of AI, then there's like
 

7179
01:44:45,040 --> 01:44:46,710
to this level of AI, then there's like
big issues and big problems and like we

7180
01:44:46,710 --> 01:44:46,720
big issues and big problems and like we
 

7181
01:44:46,720 --> 01:44:48,750
big issues and big problems and like we
need to like do something about this.

7182
01:44:48,750 --> 01:44:48,760
need to like do something about this.
 

7183
01:44:48,760 --> 01:44:51,710
need to like do something about this.
And so I think that even if there's not

7184
01:44:51,710 --> 01:44:51,720
And so I think that even if there's not
 

7185
01:44:51,720 --> 01:44:53,910
And so I think that even if there's not
any like very dramatic warning shot or

7186
01:44:53,910 --> 01:44:53,920
any like very dramatic warning shot or
 

7187
01:44:53,920 --> 01:44:54,950
any like very dramatic warning shot or
something

7188
01:44:54,950 --> 01:44:54,960
something
 

7189
01:44:54,960 --> 01:44:56,270
something
I think that just naturally people are

7190
01:44:56,270 --> 01:44:56,280
I think that just naturally people are
 

7191
01:44:56,280 --> 01:44:57,430
I think that just naturally people are
going to start paying more attention to

7192
01:44:57,430 --> 01:44:57,440
going to start paying more attention to
 

7193
01:44:57,440 --> 01:44:58,510
going to start paying more attention to
this and reasoning through the

7194
01:44:58,510 --> 01:44:58,520
this and reasoning through the
 

7195
01:44:58,520 --> 01:45:00,110
this and reasoning through the
implications and trying to predict

7196
01:45:00,110 --> 01:45:00,120
implications and trying to predict
 

7197
01:45:00,120 --> 01:45:01,230
implications and trying to predict
>> what's going to happen.

7198
01:45:01,230 --> 01:45:01,240
>> what's going to happen.
 

7199
01:45:01,240 --> 01:45:03,350
>> what's going to happen.
>> And so naturally people are going to be

7200
01:45:03,350 --> 01:45:03,360
>> And so naturally people are going to be
 

7201
01:45:03,360 --> 01:45:06,510
>> And so naturally people are going to be
more interested in regulation of AI for

7202
01:45:06,510 --> 01:45:06,520
more interested in regulation of AI for
 

7203
01:45:06,520 --> 01:45:09,510
more interested in regulation of AI for
example. And in fact

7204
01:45:09,510 --> 01:45:09,520
example. And in fact
 

7205
01:45:09,520 --> 01:45:11,150
example. And in fact
there's actually like there's there's

7206
01:45:11,150 --> 01:45:11,160
there's actually like there's there's
 

7207
01:45:11,160 --> 01:45:12,430
there's actually like there's there's
actually more of this happening than we

7208
01:45:12,430 --> 01:45:12,440
actually more of this happening than we
 

7209
01:45:12,440 --> 01:45:13,430
actually more of this happening than we
predicted.

7210
01:45:13,430 --> 01:45:13,440
predicted.
 

7211
01:45:13,440 --> 01:45:14,870
predicted.
>> More of what happening?

7212
01:45:14,870 --> 01:45:14,880
>> More of what happening?
 

7213
01:45:14,880 --> 01:45:17,030
>> More of what happening?
>> Serious interest in reg- AI regulation.

7214
01:45:17,030 --> 01:45:17,040
>> Serious interest in reg- AI regulation.
 

7215
01:45:17,040 --> 01:45:19,310
>> Serious interest in reg- AI regulation.
So at the time that we published AI 2047

7216
01:45:19,310 --> 01:45:19,320
So at the time that we published AI 2047
 

7217
01:45:19,320 --> 01:45:22,030
So at the time that we published AI 2047
the sort of like mainstream position of

7218
01:45:22,030 --> 01:45:22,040
the sort of like mainstream position of
 

7219
01:45:22,040 --> 01:45:23,590
the sort of like mainstream position of
the tech companies and in the government

7220
01:45:23,590 --> 01:45:23,600
the tech companies and in the government
 

7221
01:45:23,600 --> 01:45:26,630
the tech companies and in the government
was kind of like AI regulation bad idea.

7222
01:45:26,630 --> 01:45:26,640
was kind of like AI regulation bad idea.
 

7223
01:45:26,640 --> 01:45:27,150
was kind of like AI regulation bad idea.
>> Free for all.

7224
01:45:27,150 --> 01:45:27,160
>> Free for all.
 

7225
01:45:27,160 --> 01:45:27,870
>> Free for all.
>> Free for all.

7226
01:45:27,870 --> 01:45:27,880
>> Free for all.
 

7227
01:45:27,880 --> 01:45:28,110
>> Free for all.
>> Yeah.

7228
01:45:28,110 --> 01:45:28,120
>> Yeah.
 

7229
01:45:28,120 --> 01:45:31,190
>> Yeah.
>> In fact, there was even an attempt to um

7230
01:45:31,190 --> 01:45:31,200
>> In fact, there was even an attempt to um
 

7231
01:45:31,200 --> 01:45:32,990
>> In fact, there was even an attempt to um
preemptively ban states from regulating

7232
01:45:32,990 --> 01:45:33,000
preemptively ban states from regulating
 

7233
01:45:33,000 --> 01:45:33,390
preemptively ban states from regulating
AI.

7234
01:45:33,390 --> 01:45:33,400
AI.
 

7235
01:45:33,400 --> 01:45:34,390
AI.
>> Yeah.

7236
01:45:34,390 --> 01:45:34,400
>> Yeah.
 

7237
01:45:34,400 --> 01:45:35,950
>> Yeah.
>> You remember that? Now it seems like the

7238
01:45:35,950 --> 01:45:35,960
>> You remember that? Now it seems like the
 

7239
01:45:35,960 --> 01:45:37,550
>> You remember that? Now it seems like the
conversation has changed a lot. Like now

7240
01:45:37,550 --> 01:45:37,560
conversation has changed a lot. Like now
 

7241
01:45:37,560 --> 01:45:39,270
conversation has changed a lot. Like now
that the US government just told

7242
01:45:39,270 --> 01:45:39,280
that the US government just told
 

7243
01:45:39,280 --> 01:45:41,510
that the US government just told
Anthropic they have to shut down

7244
01:45:41,510 --> 01:45:41,520
Anthropic they have to shut down
 

7245
01:45:41,520 --> 01:45:43,430
Anthropic they have to shut down
their AI because they were worried that

7246
01:45:43,430 --> 01:45:43,440
their AI because they were worried that
 

7247
01:45:43,440 --> 01:45:44,750
their AI because they were worried that
bad actors would use it for cyber

7248
01:45:44,750 --> 01:45:44,760
bad actors would use it for cyber
 

7249
01:45:44,760 --> 01:45:47,630
bad actors would use it for cyber
attacks, you know? The government

7250
01:45:47,630 --> 01:45:47,640
attacks, you know? The government
 

7251
01:45:47,640 --> 01:45:49,310
attacks, you know? The government
is like waking up and doing more stuff

7252
01:45:49,310 --> 01:45:49,320
is like waking up and doing more stuff
 

7253
01:45:49,320 --> 01:45:52,630
is like waking up and doing more stuff
than we expected already. And

7254
01:45:52,630 --> 01:45:52,640
than we expected already. And
 

7255
01:45:52,640 --> 01:45:54,030
than we expected already. And
we're actually hopeful that that trend

7256
01:45:54,030 --> 01:45:54,040
we're actually hopeful that that trend
 

7257
01:45:54,040 --> 01:45:55,910
we're actually hopeful that that trend
will just continue and that

7258
01:45:55,910 --> 01:45:55,920
will just continue and that
 

7259
01:45:55,920 --> 01:45:57,790
will just continue and that
before it's actually too late, there

7260
01:45:57,790 --> 01:45:57,800
before it's actually too late, there
 

7261
01:45:57,800 --> 01:45:59,230
before it's actually too late, there
will be very serious conversations

7262
01:45:59,230 --> 01:45:59,240
will be very serious conversations
 

7263
01:45:59,240 --> 01:46:00,430
will be very serious conversations
happening inside the government and

7264
01:46:00,430 --> 01:46:00,440
happening inside the government and
 

7265
01:46:00,440 --> 01:46:01,350
happening inside the government and
outside the government and in the

7266
01:46:01,350 --> 01:46:01,360
outside the government and in the
 

7267
01:46:01,360 --> 01:46:03,390
outside the government and in the
broader society about all of these

7268
01:46:03,390 --> 01:46:03,400
broader society about all of these
 

7269
01:46:03,400 --> 01:46:05,830
broader society about all of these
issues and trying to uh

7270
01:46:05,830 --> 01:46:05,840
issues and trying to uh
 

7271
01:46:05,840 --> 01:46:08,990
issues and trying to uh
chart a course that is um avoids the

7272
01:46:08,990 --> 01:46:09,000
chart a course that is um avoids the
 

7273
01:46:09,000 --> 01:46:10,910
chart a course that is um avoids the
loss of control and concentration of

7274
01:46:10,910 --> 01:46:10,920
loss of control and concentration of
 

7275
01:46:10,920 --> 01:46:12,550
loss of control and concentration of
power risks that we mentioned.

7276
01:46:12,550 --> 01:46:12,560
power risks that we mentioned.
 

7277
01:46:12,560 --> 01:46:14,990
power risks that we mentioned.
>> You um you've spent what must be almost

7278
01:46:14,990 --> 01:46:15,000
>> You um you've spent what must be almost
 

7279
01:46:15,000 --> 01:46:16,390
>> You um you've spent what must be almost
coming up to 15 years thinking about

7280
01:46:16,390 --> 01:46:16,400
coming up to 15 years thinking about
 

7281
01:46:16,400 --> 01:46:18,150
coming up to 15 years thinking about
this stuff.

7282
01:46:18,150 --> 01:46:18,160
this stuff.
 

7283
01:46:18,160 --> 01:46:21,030
this stuff.
Um if this here was a button

7284
01:46:21,030 --> 01:46:21,040
Um if this here was a button
 

7285
01:46:21,040 --> 01:46:23,710
Um if this here was a button
and if you press that button, your plan

7286
01:46:23,710 --> 01:46:23,720
and if you press that button, your plan
 

7287
01:46:23,720 --> 01:46:26,950
and if you press that button, your plan
S would occur and it would shut down

7288
01:46:26,950 --> 01:46:26,960
S would occur and it would shut down
 

7289
01:46:26,960 --> 01:46:28,990
S would occur and it would shut down
every data center that is currently

7290
01:46:28,990 --> 01:46:29,000
every data center that is currently
 

7291
01:46:29,000 --> 01:46:31,830
every data center that is currently
training a frontier AI model uh for

7292
01:46:31,830 --> 01:46:31,840
training a frontier AI model uh for
 

7293
01:46:31,840 --> 01:46:32,990
training a frontier AI model uh for
good.

7294
01:46:32,990 --> 01:46:33,000
good.
 

7295
01:46:33,000 --> 01:46:35,070
good.
There would never be any other

7296
01:46:35,070 --> 01:46:35,080
There would never be any other
 

7297
01:46:35,080 --> 01:46:35,350
There would never be any other
>> Mhm.

7298
01:46:35,350 --> 01:46:35,360
>> Mhm.
 

7299
01:46:35,360 --> 01:46:38,310
>> Mhm.
>> AI labs um working on these problems,

7300
01:46:38,310 --> 01:46:38,320
>> AI labs um working on these problems,
 

7301
01:46:38,320 --> 01:46:40,310
>> AI labs um working on these problems,
would you press that button?

7302
01:46:40,310 --> 01:46:40,320
would you press that button?
 

7303
01:46:40,320 --> 01:46:42,110
would you press that button?
>> I was I was about to slam it until you

7304
01:46:42,110 --> 01:46:42,120
>> I was I was about to slam it until you
 

7305
01:46:42,120 --> 01:46:43,390
>> I was I was about to slam it until you
said for good.

7306
01:46:43,390 --> 01:46:43,400
said for good.
 

7307
01:46:43,400 --> 01:46:44,270
said for good.
>> Oh, okay.

7308
01:46:44,270 --> 01:46:44,280
>> Oh, okay.
 

7309
01:46:44,280 --> 01:46:45,670
>> Oh, okay.
>> Like I think I think if it was a sort of

7310
01:46:45,670 --> 01:46:45,680
>> Like I think I think if it was a sort of
 

7311
01:46:45,680 --> 01:46:47,390
>> Like I think I think if it was a sort of
temporary shut down, I would totally

7312
01:46:47,390 --> 01:46:47,400
temporary shut down, I would totally
 

7313
01:46:47,400 --> 01:46:49,390
temporary shut down, I would totally
slam that button. Because we are not

7314
01:46:49,390 --> 01:46:49,400
slam that button. Because we are not
 

7315
01:46:49,400 --> 01:46:52,350
slam that button. Because we are not
ready to do this, you know? Like what

7316
01:46:52,350 --> 01:46:52,360
ready to do this, you know? Like what
 

7317
01:46:52,360 --> 01:46:53,910
ready to do this, you know? Like what
civilization is not ready to have these

7318
01:46:53,910 --> 01:46:53,920
civilization is not ready to have these
 

7319
01:46:53,920 --> 01:46:55,350
civilization is not ready to have these
companies

7320
01:46:55,350 --> 01:46:55,360
companies
 

7321
01:46:55,360 --> 01:46:56,990
companies
automate themselves and then get smarter

7322
01:46:56,990 --> 01:46:57,000
automate themselves and then get smarter
 

7323
01:46:57,000 --> 01:46:57,790
automate themselves and then get smarter
and smarter and then have the super

7324
01:46:57,790 --> 01:46:57,800
and smarter and then have the super
 

7325
01:46:57,800 --> 01:46:59,590
and smarter and then have the super
intelligent. Like no, there's a bunch of

7326
01:46:59,590 --> 01:46:59,600
intelligent. Like no, there's a bunch of
 

7327
01:46:59,600 --> 01:47:02,470
intelligent. Like no, there's a bunch of
reasons why that's really uh dangerous.

7328
01:47:02,470 --> 01:47:02,480
reasons why that's really uh dangerous.
 

7329
01:47:02,480 --> 01:47:04,950
reasons why that's really uh dangerous.
But I would be at least hesitant to

7330
01:47:04,950 --> 01:47:04,960
But I would be at least hesitant to
 

7331
01:47:04,960 --> 01:47:06,510
But I would be at least hesitant to
press this button

7332
01:47:06,510 --> 01:47:06,520
press this button
 

7333
01:47:06,520 --> 01:47:08,150
press this button
if it permanently foreclosed the

7334
01:47:08,150 --> 01:47:08,160
if it permanently foreclosed the
 

7335
01:47:08,160 --> 01:47:09,670
if it permanently foreclosed the
possibility of ever doing it again for

7336
01:47:09,670 --> 01:47:09,680
possibility of ever doing it again for
 

7337
01:47:09,680 --> 01:47:10,310
possibility of ever doing it again for
sure.

7338
01:47:10,310 --> 01:47:10,320
sure.
 

7339
01:47:10,320 --> 01:47:12,590
sure.
>> But but if you think that plan D is

7340
01:47:12,590 --> 01:47:12,600
>> But but if you think that plan D is
 

7341
01:47:12,600 --> 01:47:14,630
>> But but if you think that plan D is
probable, which is this race we're on to

7342
01:47:14,630 --> 01:47:14,640
probable, which is this race we're on to
 

7343
01:47:14,640 --> 01:47:15,310
probable, which is this race we're on to
super intelligent

7344
01:47:15,310 --> 01:47:15,320
super intelligent
 

7345
01:47:15,320 --> 01:47:17,310
super intelligent
>> If I had a choice between D and S, I

7346
01:47:17,310 --> 01:47:17,320
>> If I had a choice between D and S, I
 

7347
01:47:17,320 --> 01:47:18,390
>> If I had a choice between D and S, I
think I would press it.

7348
01:47:18,390 --> 01:47:18,400
think I would press it.
 

7349
01:47:18,400 --> 01:47:19,430
think I would press it.
>> Well, it's it comes down to what you

7350
01:47:19,430 --> 01:47:19,440
>> Well, it's it comes down to what you
 

7351
01:47:19,440 --> 01:47:21,310
>> Well, it's it comes down to what you
think, right? Cuz if you think that's

7352
01:47:21,310 --> 01:47:21,320
think, right? Cuz if you think that's
 

7353
01:47:21,320 --> 01:47:23,790
think, right? Cuz if you think that's
that is what's going to happen, plan B.

7354
01:47:23,790 --> 01:47:23,800
that is what's going to happen, plan B.
 

7355
01:47:23,800 --> 01:47:26,030
that is what's going to happen, plan B.
And the only alternative

7356
01:47:26,030 --> 01:47:26,040
And the only alternative
 

7357
01:47:26,040 --> 01:47:27,310
And the only alternative
>> I didn't say this is what's going to

7358
01:47:27,310 --> 01:47:27,320
>> I didn't say this is what's going to
 

7359
01:47:27,320 --> 01:47:27,990
>> I didn't say this is what's going to
happen.

7360
01:47:27,990 --> 01:47:28,000
happen.
 

7361
01:47:28,000 --> 01:47:28,870
happen.
>> Probabilistically.

7362
01:47:28,870 --> 01:47:28,880
>> Probabilistically.
 

7363
01:47:28,880 --> 01:47:29,830
>> Probabilistically.
>> Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like like I'd be like

7364
01:47:29,830 --> 01:47:29,840
>> Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like like I'd be like
 

7365
01:47:29,840 --> 01:47:31,550
>> Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like like I'd be like
this is the most likely, maybe this is

7366
01:47:31,550 --> 01:47:31,560
this is the most likely, maybe this is
 

7367
01:47:31,560 --> 01:47:33,110
this is the most likely, maybe this is
the second most likely, maybe this is

7368
01:47:33,110 --> 01:47:33,120
the second most likely, maybe this is
 

7369
01:47:33,120 --> 01:47:34,510
the second most likely, maybe this is
the third most likely. They are all

7370
01:47:34,510 --> 01:47:34,520
the third most likely. They are all
 

7371
01:47:34,520 --> 01:47:35,190
the third most likely. They are all
possible.

7372
01:47:35,190 --> 01:47:35,200
possible.
 

7373
01:47:35,200 --> 01:47:36,310
possible.
>> So with your current perspective on

7374
01:47:36,310 --> 01:47:36,320
>> So with your current perspective on
 

7375
01:47:36,320 --> 01:47:37,270
>> So with your current perspective on
whatever one you think is going to

7376
01:47:37,270 --> 01:47:37,280
whatever one you think is going to
 

7377
01:47:37,280 --> 01:47:39,230
whatever one you think is going to
happen, would you press the button? I'm

7378
01:47:39,230 --> 01:47:39,240
happen, would you press the button? I'm
 

7379
01:47:39,240 --> 01:47:41,070
happen, would you press the button? I'm
giving you a an S, a definite S, or

7380
01:47:41,070 --> 01:47:41,080
giving you a an S, a definite S, or
 

7381
01:47:41,080 --> 01:47:42,550
giving you a an S, a definite S, or
whatever you think is going to happen.

7382
01:47:42,550 --> 01:47:42,560
whatever you think is going to happen.
 

7383
01:47:42,560 --> 01:47:45,569
whatever you think is going to happen.
>> That's tough.

7384
01:47:45,569 --> 01:47:45,579

 

7385
01:47:45,579 --> 01:47:48,430

>> [sighs]

7386
01:47:48,430 --> 01:47:48,440

 

7387
01:47:48,440 --> 01:47:50,430

>> What is the scope of the shutdown? So is

7388
01:47:50,430 --> 01:47:50,440
>> What is the scope of the shutdown? So is
 

7389
01:47:50,440 --> 01:47:50,990
>> What is the scope of the shutdown? So is
it

7390
01:47:50,990 --> 01:47:51,000
it
 

7391
01:47:51,000 --> 01:47:54,430
it
>> It's no one can train an AI model again.

7392
01:47:54,430 --> 01:47:54,440
>> It's no one can train an AI model again.
 

7393
01:47:54,440 --> 01:47:57,230
>> It's no one can train an AI model again.
Ever again.

7394
01:47:57,230 --> 01:47:57,240

 

7395
01:47:57,240 --> 01:47:58,550

>> That's real rough cuz like I said,

7396
01:47:58,550 --> 01:47:58,560
>> That's real rough cuz like I said,
 

7397
01:47:58,560 --> 01:47:59,750
>> That's real rough cuz like I said,
there's loads of benefits that we could

7398
01:47:59,750 --> 01:47:59,760
there's loads of benefits that we could
 

7399
01:47:59,760 --> 01:48:01,910
there's loads of benefits that we could
get from AI if we do it right. Um

7400
01:48:01,910 --> 01:48:01,920
get from AI if we do it right. Um
 

7401
01:48:01,920 --> 01:48:03,510
get from AI if we do it right. Um
>> I think I I've almost put you in the

7402
01:48:03,510 --> 01:48:03,520
>> I think I I've almost put you in the
 

7403
01:48:03,520 --> 01:48:04,790
>> I think I I've almost put you in the
position of Sam Altman.

7404
01:48:04,790 --> 01:48:04,800
position of Sam Altman.
 

7405
01:48:04,800 --> 01:48:05,310
position of Sam Altman.
>> Yeah. [laughter]

7406
01:48:05,310 --> 01:48:05,320
>> Yeah. [laughter]
 

7407
01:48:05,320 --> 01:48:06,470
>> Yeah. [laughter]
>> To some degree.

7408
01:48:06,470 --> 01:48:06,480
>> To some degree.
 

7409
01:48:06,480 --> 01:48:08,350
>> To some degree.
>> Yeah.

7410
01:48:08,350 --> 01:48:08,360
>> Yeah.
 

7411
01:48:08,360 --> 01:48:10,230
>> Yeah.
Um let me Do you mind if I just take a

7412
01:48:10,230 --> 01:48:10,240
Um let me Do you mind if I just take a
 

7413
01:48:10,240 --> 01:48:10,790
Um let me Do you mind if I just take a
moment to think about this?

7414
01:48:10,790 --> 01:48:10,800
moment to think about this?
 

7415
01:48:10,800 --> 01:48:12,150
moment to think about this?
>> think about it. Perfectly to think.

7416
01:48:12,150 --> 01:48:12,160
>> think about it. Perfectly to think.
 

7417
01:48:12,160 --> 01:48:21,190
>> think about it. Perfectly to think.
>> Yeah.

7418
01:48:21,190 --> 01:48:21,200

 

7419
01:48:21,200 --> 01:48:23,510

I think I would not press

7420
01:48:23,510 --> 01:48:23,520
I think I would not press
 

7421
01:48:23,520 --> 01:48:25,510
I think I would not press
the button, but I'm I feel very torn

7422
01:48:25,510 --> 01:48:25,520
the button, but I'm I feel very torn
 

7423
01:48:25,520 --> 01:48:26,510
the button, but I'm I feel very torn
about it.

7424
01:48:26,510 --> 01:48:26,520
about it.
 

7425
01:48:26,520 --> 01:48:27,830
about it.
Um the reason why I think I would not

7426
01:48:27,830 --> 01:48:27,840
Um the reason why I think I would not
 

7427
01:48:27,840 --> 01:48:29,670
Um the reason why I think I would not
press the button is that

7428
01:48:29,670 --> 01:48:29,680
press the button is that
 

7429
01:48:29,680 --> 01:48:31,110
press the button is that
I still have substantial hope that we

7430
01:48:31,110 --> 01:48:31,120
I still have substantial hope that we
 

7431
01:48:31,120 --> 01:48:32,790
I still have substantial hope that we
can get something much better than this,

7432
01:48:32,790 --> 01:48:32,800
can get something much better than this,
 

7433
01:48:32,800 --> 01:48:34,350
can get something much better than this,
something more like this.

7434
01:48:34,350 --> 01:48:34,360
something more like this.
 

7435
01:48:34,360 --> 01:48:37,270
something more like this.
And I think that

7436
01:48:37,270 --> 01:48:37,280
And I think that
 

7437
01:48:37,280 --> 01:48:38,790
And I think that
Basically, I think that if we don't

7438
01:48:38,790 --> 01:48:38,800
Basically, I think that if we don't
 

7439
01:48:38,800 --> 01:48:41,910
Basically, I think that if we don't
build powerful AI systems eventually,

7440
01:48:41,910 --> 01:48:41,920
build powerful AI systems eventually,
 

7441
01:48:41,920 --> 01:48:43,790
build powerful AI systems eventually,
then

7442
01:48:43,790 --> 01:48:43,800
then
 

7443
01:48:43,800 --> 01:48:45,350
then
we're probably going to die as a

7444
01:48:45,350 --> 01:48:45,360
we're probably going to die as a
 

7445
01:48:45,360 --> 01:48:47,030
we're probably going to die as a
civilization

7446
01:48:47,030 --> 01:48:47,040
civilization
 

7447
01:48:47,040 --> 01:48:48,550
civilization
eventually, you know, like 100 years

7448
01:48:48,550 --> 01:48:48,560
eventually, you know, like 100 years
 

7449
01:48:48,560 --> 01:48:49,750
eventually, you know, like 100 years
from now, 200 years from now, something

7450
01:48:49,750 --> 01:48:49,760
from now, 200 years from now, something
 

7451
01:48:49,760 --> 01:48:52,310
from now, 200 years from now, something
like that. Like nuclear war, pandemic,

7452
01:48:52,310 --> 01:48:52,320
like that. Like nuclear war, pandemic,
 

7453
01:48:52,320 --> 01:48:54,230
like that. Like nuclear war, pandemic,
you know.

7454
01:48:54,230 --> 01:48:54,240
you know.
 

7455
01:48:54,240 --> 01:48:56,270
you know.
I I don't think human civilization right

7456
01:48:56,270 --> 01:48:56,280
I I don't think human civilization right
 

7457
01:48:56,280 --> 01:48:58,990
I I don't think human civilization right
now is like super super stable.

7458
01:48:58,990 --> 01:48:59,000
now is like super super stable.
 

7459
01:48:59,000 --> 01:49:00,150
now is like super super stable.
Um

7460
01:49:00,150 --> 01:49:00,160
Um
 

7461
01:49:00,160 --> 01:49:01,390
Um
and so

7462
01:49:01,390 --> 01:49:01,400
and so
 

7463
01:49:01,400 --> 01:49:03,190
and so
I think that

7464
01:49:03,190 --> 01:49:03,200
I think that
 

7465
01:49:03,200 --> 01:49:05,430
I think that
basically, what I was about to say was

7466
01:49:05,430 --> 01:49:05,440
basically, what I was about to say was
 

7467
01:49:05,440 --> 01:49:07,670
basically, what I was about to say was
the possible benefits for posterity and

7468
01:49:07,670 --> 01:49:07,680
the possible benefits for posterity and
 

7469
01:49:07,680 --> 01:49:09,350
the possible benefits for posterity and
for all the billions and billions of

7470
01:49:09,350 --> 01:49:09,360
for all the billions and billions of
 

7471
01:49:09,360 --> 01:49:10,950
for all the billions and billions of
people who could live in the future

7472
01:49:10,950 --> 01:49:10,960
people who could live in the future
 

7473
01:49:10,960 --> 01:49:14,630
people who could live in the future
outweigh the like

7474
01:49:14,630 --> 01:49:14,640

 

7475
01:49:14,640 --> 01:49:17,190

the current level of risk, but actually

7476
01:49:17,190 --> 01:49:17,200
the current level of risk, but actually
 

7477
01:49:17,200 --> 01:49:18,430
the current level of risk, but actually
>> I've heard that narrative before. Yeah,

7478
01:49:18,430 --> 01:49:18,440
>> I've heard that narrative before. Yeah,
 

7479
01:49:18,440 --> 01:49:20,630
>> I've heard that narrative before. Yeah,
I don't know. Like

7480
01:49:20,630 --> 01:49:20,640
I don't know. Like
 

7481
01:49:20,640 --> 01:49:22,110
I don't know. Like
Yeah, like maybe maybe it's just like

7482
01:49:22,110 --> 01:49:22,120
Yeah, like maybe maybe it's just like
 

7483
01:49:22,120 --> 01:49:23,150
Yeah, like maybe maybe it's just like
nope.

7484
01:49:23,150 --> 01:49:23,160
nope.
 

7485
01:49:23,160 --> 01:49:24,750
nope.
The people right now

7486
01:49:24,750 --> 01:49:24,760
The people right now
 

7487
01:49:24,760 --> 01:49:26,470
The people right now
are the people we should prioritize.

7488
01:49:26,470 --> 01:49:26,480
are the people we should prioritize.
 

7489
01:49:26,480 --> 01:49:29,350
are the people we should prioritize.
People right now are in grave danger.

7490
01:49:29,350 --> 01:49:29,360
People right now are in grave danger.
 

7491
01:49:29,360 --> 01:49:30,430
People right now are in grave danger.
They're going to be fine for at least

7492
01:49:30,430 --> 01:49:30,440
They're going to be fine for at least
 

7493
01:49:30,440 --> 01:49:32,670
They're going to be fine for at least
the next couple of decades.

7494
01:49:32,670 --> 01:49:32,680
the next couple of decades.
 

7495
01:49:32,680 --> 01:49:34,270
the next couple of decades.
So,

7496
01:49:34,270 --> 01:49:34,280
So,
 

7497
01:49:34,280 --> 01:49:36,630
So,
never mind posterity.

7498
01:49:36,630 --> 01:49:36,640
never mind posterity.
 

7499
01:49:36,640 --> 01:49:38,350
never mind posterity.
Prioritize the people right now.

7500
01:49:38,350 --> 01:49:38,360
Prioritize the people right now.
 

7501
01:49:38,360 --> 01:49:39,910
Prioritize the people right now.
Um and people right now definitely don't

7502
01:49:39,910 --> 01:49:39,920
Um and people right now definitely don't
 

7503
01:49:39,920 --> 01:49:41,070
Um and people right now definitely don't
want

7504
01:49:41,070 --> 01:49:41,080
want
 

7505
01:49:41,080 --> 01:49:42,670
want
to do this lottery,

7506
01:49:42,670 --> 01:49:42,680
to do this lottery,
 

7507
01:49:42,680 --> 01:49:43,990
to do this lottery,
I would say.

7508
01:49:43,990 --> 01:49:44,000
I would say.
 

7509
01:49:44,000 --> 01:49:45,436
I would say.
Um

7510
01:49:45,436 --> 01:49:45,446
Um
 

7511
01:49:45,446 --> 01:49:46,390
Um
>> [sighs and gasps]

7512
01:49:46,390 --> 01:49:46,400
>> [sighs and gasps]
 

7513
01:49:46,400 --> 01:49:47,950
>> [sighs and gasps]
>> Yeah, you've really asked me a tough

7514
01:49:47,950 --> 01:49:47,960
>> Yeah, you've really asked me a tough
 

7515
01:49:47,960 --> 01:49:49,990
>> Yeah, you've really asked me a tough
question. So, would you press the button

7516
01:49:49,990 --> 01:49:50,000
question. So, would you press the button
 

7517
01:49:50,000 --> 01:49:52,710
question. So, would you press the button
if that was the button?

7518
01:49:52,710 --> 01:49:52,720
if that was the button?
 

7519
01:49:52,720 --> 01:49:54,070
if that was the button?
Probably not, but I would feel very

7520
01:49:54,070 --> 01:49:54,080
Probably not, but I would feel very
 

7521
01:49:54,080 --> 01:49:55,590
Probably not, but I would feel very
torn.

7522
01:49:55,590 --> 01:49:55,600
torn.
 

7523
01:49:55,600 --> 01:49:56,790
torn.
>> Okay.

7524
01:49:56,790 --> 01:49:56,800
>> Okay.
 

7525
01:49:56,800 --> 01:49:58,190
>> Okay.
So, what I I always think about the

7526
01:49:58,190 --> 01:49:58,200
So, what I I always think about the
 

7527
01:49:58,200 --> 01:49:59,470
So, what I I always think about the
personas of like the audience that are

7528
01:49:59,470 --> 01:49:59,480
personas of like the audience that are
 

7529
01:49:59,480 --> 01:50:01,070
personas of like the audience that are
watching. And these are, you know,

7530
01:50:01,070 --> 01:50:01,080
watching. And these are, you know,
 

7531
01:50:01,080 --> 01:50:02,430
watching. And these are, you know,
they're they're very curious people,

7532
01:50:02,430 --> 01:50:02,440
they're they're very curious people,
 

7533
01:50:02,440 --> 01:50:03,750
they're they're very curious people,
especially on the subject of AI as we've

7534
01:50:03,750 --> 01:50:03,760
especially on the subject of AI as we've
 

7535
01:50:03,760 --> 01:50:06,230
especially on the subject of AI as we've
seen, but they they want to know like

7536
01:50:06,230 --> 01:50:06,240
seen, but they they want to know like
 

7537
01:50:06,240 --> 01:50:07,510
seen, but they they want to know like
what it means for them. I think a lot of

7538
01:50:07,510 --> 01:50:07,520
what it means for them. I think a lot of
 

7539
01:50:07,520 --> 01:50:09,190
what it means for them. I think a lot of
them also want to know what they can do.

7540
01:50:09,190 --> 01:50:09,200
them also want to know what they can do.
 

7541
01:50:09,200 --> 01:50:12,470
them also want to know what they can do.
>> Uh yes. Yeah, what can people do? Well,

7542
01:50:12,470 --> 01:50:12,480
>> Uh yes. Yeah, what can people do? Well,
 

7543
01:50:12,480 --> 01:50:14,990
>> Uh yes. Yeah, what can people do? Well,
I think that if you either have

7544
01:50:14,990 --> 01:50:15,000
I think that if you either have
 

7545
01:50:15,000 --> 01:50:18,630
I think that if you either have
talent or passion, you can get directly

7546
01:50:18,630 --> 01:50:18,640
talent or passion, you can get directly
 

7547
01:50:18,640 --> 01:50:20,590
talent or passion, you can get directly
involved. There's lots of organizations

7548
01:50:20,590 --> 01:50:20,600
involved. There's lots of organizations
 

7549
01:50:20,600 --> 01:50:21,870
involved. There's lots of organizations
that are worried about these things and

7550
01:50:21,870 --> 01:50:21,880
that are worried about these things and
 

7551
01:50:21,880 --> 01:50:22,950
that are worried about these things and
that are trying to do something about

7552
01:50:22,950 --> 01:50:22,960
that are trying to do something about
 

7553
01:50:22,960 --> 01:50:25,310
that are trying to do something about
it, like political advocacy or technical

7554
01:50:25,310 --> 01:50:25,320
it, like political advocacy or technical
 

7555
01:50:25,320 --> 01:50:28,070
it, like political advocacy or technical
research or like building useful tools

7556
01:50:28,070 --> 01:50:28,080
research or like building useful tools
 

7557
01:50:28,080 --> 01:50:30,110
research or like building useful tools
that will hopefully help people be

7558
01:50:30,110 --> 01:50:30,120
that will hopefully help people be
 

7559
01:50:30,120 --> 01:50:31,430
that will hopefully help people be
better and stuff. But if you don't want

7560
01:50:31,430 --> 01:50:31,440
better and stuff. But if you don't want
 

7561
01:50:31,440 --> 01:50:34,510
better and stuff. But if you don't want
to like make any major career changes or

7562
01:50:34,510 --> 01:50:34,520
to like make any major career changes or
 

7563
01:50:34,520 --> 01:50:36,590
to like make any major career changes or
or things like that, then

7564
01:50:36,590 --> 01:50:36,600
or things like that, then
 

7565
01:50:36,600 --> 01:50:38,550
or things like that, then
I would say just pay more attention to

7566
01:50:38,550 --> 01:50:38,560
I would say just pay more attention to
 

7567
01:50:38,560 --> 01:50:40,510
I would say just pay more attention to
these issues and talk about it more with

7568
01:50:40,510 --> 01:50:40,520
these issues and talk about it more with
 

7569
01:50:40,520 --> 01:50:42,350
these issues and talk about it more with
people. Do stuff like, you know,

7570
01:50:42,350 --> 01:50:42,360
people. Do stuff like, you know,
 

7571
01:50:42,360 --> 01:50:44,750
people. Do stuff like, you know,
emailing your congressman or whatever.

7572
01:50:44,750 --> 01:50:44,760
emailing your congressman or whatever.
 

7573
01:50:44,760 --> 01:50:46,670
emailing your congressman or whatever.
It doesn't change things that much, but

7574
01:50:46,670 --> 01:50:46,680
It doesn't change things that much, but
 

7575
01:50:46,680 --> 01:50:49,070
It doesn't change things that much, but
it does help. I think that especially

7576
01:50:49,070 --> 01:50:49,080
it does help. I think that especially
 

7577
01:50:49,080 --> 01:50:51,110
it does help. I think that especially
for this particular issue, the core

7578
01:50:51,110 --> 01:50:51,120
for this particular issue, the core
 

7579
01:50:51,120 --> 01:50:52,790
for this particular issue, the core
problem is that people aren't taking it

7580
01:50:52,790 --> 01:50:52,800
problem is that people aren't taking it
 

7581
01:50:52,800 --> 01:50:54,550
problem is that people aren't taking it
seriously yet.

7582
01:50:54,550 --> 01:50:54,560
seriously yet.
 

7583
01:50:54,560 --> 01:50:55,790
seriously yet.
Like if the sorts of things that I was

7584
01:50:55,790 --> 01:50:55,800
Like if the sorts of things that I was
 

7585
01:50:55,800 --> 01:50:57,230
Like if the sorts of things that I was
just saying to you for the last hour or

7586
01:50:57,230 --> 01:50:57,240
just saying to you for the last hour or
 

7587
01:50:57,240 --> 01:50:59,310
just saying to you for the last hour or
two were just like

7588
01:50:59,310 --> 01:50:59,320
two were just like
 

7589
01:50:59,320 --> 01:51:02,150
two were just like
top of everybody's mind,

7590
01:51:02,150 --> 01:51:02,160
top of everybody's mind,
 

7591
01:51:02,160 --> 01:51:03,550
top of everybody's mind,
we wouldn't even be here. Like there

7592
01:51:03,550 --> 01:51:03,560
we wouldn't even be here. Like there
 

7593
01:51:03,560 --> 01:51:04,950
we wouldn't even be here. Like there
would there would already be much more

7594
01:51:04,950 --> 01:51:04,960
would there would already be much more
 

7595
01:51:04,960 --> 01:51:07,150
would there would already be much more
significant regulation in place, you

7596
01:51:07,150 --> 01:51:07,160
significant regulation in place, you
 

7597
01:51:07,160 --> 01:51:09,070
significant regulation in place, you
know? And not only would there be more

7598
01:51:09,070 --> 01:51:09,080
know? And not only would there be more
 

7599
01:51:09,080 --> 01:51:10,990
know? And not only would there be more
heavy regulation in place, but there

7600
01:51:10,990 --> 01:51:11,000
heavy regulation in place, but there
 

7601
01:51:11,000 --> 01:51:12,830
heavy regulation in place, but there
would have been better regulation in

7602
01:51:12,830 --> 01:51:12,840
would have been better regulation in
 

7603
01:51:12,840 --> 01:51:15,310
would have been better regulation in
place that's less, you know, less like a

7604
01:51:15,310 --> 01:51:15,320
place that's less, you know, less like a
 

7605
01:51:15,320 --> 01:51:16,830
place that's less, you know, less like a
cudgel and more like a scalpel and

7606
01:51:16,830 --> 01:51:16,840
cudgel and more like a scalpel and
 

7607
01:51:16,840 --> 01:51:19,790
cudgel and more like a scalpel and
that's like more sensitive to what's

7608
01:51:19,790 --> 01:51:19,800
that's like more sensitive to what's
 

7609
01:51:19,800 --> 01:51:21,190
that's like more sensitive to what's
actually bad and what's not so bad and

7610
01:51:21,190 --> 01:51:21,200
actually bad and what's not so bad and
 

7611
01:51:21,200 --> 01:51:22,630
actually bad and what's not so bad and
so forth. And there'd be more expert

7612
01:51:22,630 --> 01:51:22,640
so forth. And there'd be more expert
 

7613
01:51:22,640 --> 01:51:24,470
so forth. And there'd be more expert
people in the government and advising

7614
01:51:24,470 --> 01:51:24,480
people in the government and advising
 

7615
01:51:24,480 --> 01:51:26,230
people in the government and advising
the government and so forth. So just in

7616
01:51:26,230 --> 01:51:26,240
the government and so forth. So just in
 

7617
01:51:26,240 --> 01:51:28,230
the government and so forth. So just in
general like

7618
01:51:28,230 --> 01:51:28,240
general like
 

7619
01:51:28,240 --> 01:51:30,110
general like
the more people wake up to these

7620
01:51:30,110 --> 01:51:30,120
the more people wake up to these
 

7621
01:51:30,120 --> 01:51:32,910
the more people wake up to these
concerns and to these projections,

7622
01:51:32,910 --> 01:51:32,920
concerns and to these projections,
 

7623
01:51:32,920 --> 01:51:34,470
concerns and to these projections,
I think the more likely it is that we

7624
01:51:34,470 --> 01:51:34,480
I think the more likely it is that we
 

7625
01:51:34,480 --> 01:51:36,710
I think the more likely it is that we
can do good stuff before it's too late.

7626
01:51:36,710 --> 01:51:36,720
can do good stuff before it's too late.
 

7627
01:51:36,720 --> 01:51:37,830
can do good stuff before it's too late.
>> What about how they should vote at the

7628
01:51:37,830 --> 01:51:37,840
>> What about how they should vote at the
 

7629
01:51:37,840 --> 01:51:39,990
>> What about how they should vote at the
polls? We've got an election coming up

7630
01:51:39,990 --> 01:51:40,000
polls? We've got an election coming up
 

7631
01:51:40,000 --> 01:51:41,070
polls? We've got an election coming up
in the United States in a couple of

7632
01:51:41,070 --> 01:51:41,080
in the United States in a couple of
 

7633
01:51:41,080 --> 01:51:42,150
in the United States in a couple of
years time, but there's elections

7634
01:51:42,150 --> 01:51:42,160
years time, but there's elections
 

7635
01:51:42,160 --> 01:51:43,590
years time, but there's elections
happening all over the world all the

7636
01:51:43,590 --> 01:51:43,600
happening all over the world all the
 

7637
01:51:43,600 --> 01:51:44,190
happening all over the world all the
time.

7638
01:51:44,190 --> 01:51:44,200
time.
 

7639
01:51:44,200 --> 01:51:46,030
time.
>> You should ask your candidates what they

7640
01:51:46,030 --> 01:51:46,040
>> You should ask your candidates what they
 

7641
01:51:46,040 --> 01:51:47,390
>> You should ask your candidates what they
think about all this AI stuff. You

7642
01:51:47,390 --> 01:51:47,400
think about all this AI stuff. You
 

7643
01:51:47,400 --> 01:51:49,310
think about all this AI stuff. You
should try to get them to like have

7644
01:51:49,310 --> 01:51:49,320
should try to get them to like have
 

7645
01:51:49,320 --> 01:51:50,910
should try to get them to like have
opinions and then you should vote for

7646
01:51:50,910 --> 01:51:50,920
opinions and then you should vote for
 

7647
01:51:50,920 --> 01:51:52,350
opinions and then you should vote for
the candidates whose opinions are better

7648
01:51:52,350 --> 01:51:52,360
the candidates whose opinions are better
 

7649
01:51:52,360 --> 01:51:53,750
the candidates whose opinions are better
on this topic. This is the most

7650
01:51:53,750 --> 01:51:53,760
on this topic. This is the most
 

7651
01:51:53,760 --> 01:51:55,830
on this topic. This is the most
important thing happening

7652
01:51:55,830 --> 01:51:55,840
important thing happening
 

7653
01:51:55,840 --> 01:51:57,350
important thing happening
in our lifetimes, probably in all of

7654
01:51:57,350 --> 01:51:57,360
in our lifetimes, probably in all of
 

7655
01:51:57,360 --> 01:51:59,550
in our lifetimes, probably in all of
history in fact, and it's very important

7656
01:51:59,550 --> 01:51:59,560
history in fact, and it's very important
 

7657
01:51:59,560 --> 01:52:01,710
history in fact, and it's very important
that it go well. And so this is what all

7658
01:52:01,710 --> 01:52:01,720
that it go well. And so this is what all
 

7659
01:52:01,720 --> 01:52:03,030
that it go well. And so this is what all
the all the leaders of all the countries

7660
01:52:03,030 --> 01:52:03,040
the all the leaders of all the countries
 

7661
01:52:03,040 --> 01:52:04,310
the all the leaders of all the countries
should be thinking about and making

7662
01:52:04,310 --> 01:52:04,320
should be thinking about and making
 

7663
01:52:04,320 --> 01:52:05,030
should be thinking about and making
plans for.

7664
01:52:05,030 --> 01:52:05,040
plans for.
 

7665
01:52:05,040 --> 01:52:06,470
plans for.
>> Isn't it such a weird thing to be alive

7666
01:52:06,470 --> 01:52:06,480
>> Isn't it such a weird thing to be alive
 

7667
01:52:06,480 --> 01:52:08,230
>> Isn't it such a weird thing to be alive
at this moment in time?

7668
01:52:08,230 --> 01:52:08,240
at this moment in time?
 

7669
01:52:08,240 --> 01:52:09,350
at this moment in time?
Like I was thinking about all the times

7670
01:52:09,350 --> 01:52:09,360
Like I was thinking about all the times
 

7671
01:52:09,360 --> 01:52:10,710
Like I was thinking about all the times
that I could have been born. And I guess

7672
01:52:10,710 --> 01:52:10,720
that I could have been born. And I guess
 

7673
01:52:10,720 --> 01:52:12,110
that I could have been born. And I guess
my ancestors probably thought the same,

7674
01:52:12,110 --> 01:52:12,120
my ancestors probably thought the same,
 

7675
01:52:12,120 --> 01:52:13,110
my ancestors probably thought the same,
but I was thinking as you were speaking

7676
01:52:13,110 --> 01:52:13,120
but I was thinking as you were speaking
 

7677
01:52:13,120 --> 01:52:14,270
but I was thinking as you were speaking
I was like, I think it's when you

7678
01:52:14,270 --> 01:52:14,280
I was like, I think it's when you
 

7679
01:52:14,280 --> 01:52:16,150
I was like, I think it's when you
referred to it as like the final show.

7680
01:52:16,150 --> 01:52:16,160
referred to it as like the final show.
 

7681
01:52:16,160 --> 01:52:17,150
referred to it as like the final show.
>> Yeah.

7682
01:52:17,150 --> 01:52:17,160
>> Yeah.
 

7683
01:52:17,160 --> 01:52:18,830
>> Yeah.
>> What was the phraseology you used?

7684
01:52:18,830 --> 01:52:18,840
>> What was the phraseology you used?
 

7685
01:52:18,840 --> 01:52:20,270
>> What was the phraseology you used?
>> I said the the climate it was the run-up

7686
01:52:20,270 --> 01:52:20,280
>> I said the the climate it was the run-up
 

7687
01:52:20,280 --> 01:52:21,470
>> I said the the climate it was the run-up
to the climax or something.

7688
01:52:21,470 --> 01:52:21,480
to the climax or something.
 

7689
01:52:21,480 --> 01:52:24,150
to the climax or something.
>> Yeah. I mean what a what a crazy thing

7690
01:52:24,150 --> 01:52:24,160
>> Yeah. I mean what a what a crazy thing
 

7691
01:52:24,160 --> 01:52:26,030
>> Yeah. I mean what a what a crazy thing
to be born in the run-up to the climax

7692
01:52:26,030 --> 01:52:26,040
to be born in the run-up to the climax
 

7693
01:52:26,040 --> 01:52:28,150
to be born in the run-up to the climax
where everything you're describing here

7694
01:52:28,150 --> 01:52:28,160
where everything you're describing here
 

7695
01:52:28,160 --> 01:52:30,030
where everything you're describing here
is within my lifetime conceivably

7696
01:52:30,030 --> 01:52:30,040
is within my lifetime conceivably
 

7697
01:52:30,040 --> 01:52:30,750
is within my lifetime conceivably
hopefully.

7698
01:52:30,750 --> 01:52:30,760
hopefully.
 

7699
01:52:30,760 --> 01:52:31,550
hopefully.
>> Yeah.

7700
01:52:31,550 --> 01:52:31,560
>> Yeah.
 

7701
01:52:31,560 --> 01:52:33,630
>> Yeah.
>> Um or maybe not hopefully.

7702
01:52:33,630 --> 01:52:33,640
>> Um or maybe not hopefully.
 

7703
01:52:33,640 --> 01:52:35,310
>> Um or maybe not hopefully.
What a crazy time to be alive.

7704
01:52:35,310 --> 01:52:35,320
What a crazy time to be alive.
 

7705
01:52:35,320 --> 01:52:36,270
What a crazy time to be alive.
>> Certainly.

7706
01:52:36,270 --> 01:52:36,280
>> Certainly.
 

7707
01:52:36,280 --> 01:52:37,710
>> Certainly.
>> I noticed that when I meant asked you if

7708
01:52:37,710 --> 01:52:37,720
>> I noticed that when I meant asked you if
 

7709
01:52:37,720 --> 01:52:39,310
>> I noticed that when I meant asked you if
you had kids your demeanor changed quite

7710
01:52:39,310 --> 01:52:39,320
you had kids your demeanor changed quite
 

7711
01:52:39,320 --> 01:52:40,030
you had kids your demeanor changed quite
considerably.

7712
01:52:40,030 --> 01:52:40,040
considerably.
 

7713
01:52:40,040 --> 01:52:42,350
considerably.
>> Well, it's yeah.

7714
01:52:42,350 --> 01:52:42,360
>> Well, it's yeah.
 

7715
01:52:42,360 --> 01:52:43,390
>> Well, it's yeah.
>> It's like you dropped into a different

7716
01:52:43,390 --> 01:52:43,400
>> It's like you dropped into a different
 

7717
01:52:43,400 --> 01:52:44,710
>> It's like you dropped into a different
state.

7718
01:52:44,710 --> 01:52:44,720
state.
 

7719
01:52:44,720 --> 01:52:48,150
state.
Obviously that's been central to the

7720
01:52:48,150 --> 01:52:48,160
Obviously that's been central to the
 

7721
01:52:48,160 --> 01:52:49,150
Obviously that's been central to the
rumination that you've been

7722
01:52:49,150 --> 01:52:49,160
rumination that you've been
 

7723
01:52:49,160 --> 01:52:50,630
rumination that you've been
experiencing.

7724
01:52:50,630 --> 01:52:50,640
experiencing.
 

7725
01:52:50,640 --> 01:52:52,230
experiencing.
>> Well, it is a sad topic, right? Like

7726
01:52:52,230 --> 01:52:52,240
>> Well, it is a sad topic, right? Like
 

7727
01:52:52,240 --> 01:52:54,510
>> Well, it is a sad topic, right? Like
when when I had kids

7728
01:52:54,510 --> 01:52:54,520
when when I had kids
 

7729
01:52:54,520 --> 01:52:56,150
when when I had kids
like the reason to have kids is in large

7730
01:52:56,150 --> 01:52:56,160
like the reason to have kids is in large
 

7731
01:52:56,160 --> 01:52:58,670
like the reason to have kids is in large
part about the future, you know?

7732
01:52:58,670 --> 01:52:58,680
part about the future, you know?
 

7733
01:52:58,680 --> 01:53:00,350
part about the future, you know?
Like it's not just like a cuddly thing

7734
01:53:00,350 --> 01:53:00,360
Like it's not just like a cuddly thing
 

7735
01:53:00,360 --> 01:53:02,310
Like it's not just like a cuddly thing
to have with you in the moment. It's cuz

7736
01:53:02,310 --> 01:53:02,320
to have with you in the moment. It's cuz
 

7737
01:53:02,320 --> 01:53:03,270
to have with you in the moment. It's cuz
you have all these hopes and dreams

7738
01:53:03,270 --> 01:53:03,280
you have all these hopes and dreams
 

7739
01:53:03,280 --> 01:53:04,790
you have all these hopes and dreams
about how they'll grow up and how

7740
01:53:04,790 --> 01:53:04,800
about how they'll grow up and how
 

7741
01:53:04,800 --> 01:53:05,830
about how they'll grow up and how
they'll go to their own thing and be

7742
01:53:05,830 --> 01:53:05,840
they'll go to their own thing and be
 

7743
01:53:05,840 --> 01:53:08,430
they'll go to their own thing and be
their own person and stuff. And

7744
01:53:08,430 --> 01:53:08,440
their own person and stuff. And
 

7745
01:53:08,440 --> 01:53:10,190
their own person and stuff. And
because of what's happening with AI, I

7746
01:53:10,190 --> 01:53:10,200
because of what's happening with AI, I
 

7747
01:53:10,200 --> 01:53:11,270
because of what's happening with AI, I
think a lot of those dreams are in

7748
01:53:11,270 --> 01:53:11,280
think a lot of those dreams are in
 

7749
01:53:11,280 --> 01:53:12,030
think a lot of those dreams are in
jeopardy.

7750
01:53:12,030 --> 01:53:12,040
jeopardy.
 

7751
01:53:12,040 --> 01:53:13,070
jeopardy.
>> Presumably you still would have had

7752
01:53:13,070 --> 01:53:13,080
>> Presumably you still would have had
 

7753
01:53:13,080 --> 01:53:14,030
>> Presumably you still would have had
kids?

7754
01:53:14,030 --> 01:53:14,040
kids?
 

7755
01:53:14,040 --> 01:53:15,310
kids?
>> I've actually flip-flopped on this

7756
01:53:15,310 --> 01:53:15,320
>> I've actually flip-flopped on this
 

7757
01:53:15,320 --> 01:53:17,030
>> I've actually flip-flopped on this
occasionally. Yeah. Basically the top

7758
01:53:17,030 --> 01:53:17,040
occasionally. Yeah. Basically the top
 

7759
01:53:17,040 --> 01:53:20,150
occasionally. Yeah. Basically the top
line answer is I'm not sure. The

7760
01:53:20,150 --> 01:53:20,160
line answer is I'm not sure. The
 

7761
01:53:20,160 --> 01:53:22,190
line answer is I'm not sure. The
my first child was had we we had her

7762
01:53:22,190 --> 01:53:22,200
my first child was had we we had her
 

7763
01:53:22,200 --> 01:53:24,870
my first child was had we we had her
when we were um in 209 she was born in

7764
01:53:24,870 --> 01:53:24,880
when we were um in 209 she was born in
 

7765
01:53:24,880 --> 01:53:26,750
when we were um in 209 she was born in
2019. Yeah. So this is before my

7766
01:53:26,750 --> 01:53:26,760
2019. Yeah. So this is before my
 

7767
01:53:26,760 --> 01:53:28,150
2019. Yeah. So this is before my
timeline shortened a lot. So at that at

7768
01:53:28,150 --> 01:53:28,160
timeline shortened a lot. So at that at
 

7769
01:53:28,160 --> 01:53:29,550
timeline shortened a lot. So at that at
this point I was interested in AI, I was

7770
01:53:29,550 --> 01:53:29,560
this point I was interested in AI, I was
 

7771
01:53:29,560 --> 01:53:30,590
this point I was interested in AI, I was
tracking the field, I was making

7772
01:53:30,590 --> 01:53:30,600
tracking the field, I was making
 

7773
01:53:30,600 --> 01:53:31,790
tracking the field, I was making
forecasts,

7774
01:53:31,790 --> 01:53:31,800
forecasts,
 

7775
01:53:31,800 --> 01:53:33,190
forecasts,
but I didn't like actually expect it to

7776
01:53:33,190 --> 01:53:33,200
but I didn't like actually expect it to
 

7777
01:53:33,200 --> 01:53:34,710
but I didn't like actually expect it to
happen soon.

7778
01:53:34,710 --> 01:53:34,720
happen soon.
 

7779
01:53:34,720 --> 01:53:36,030
happen soon.
You know?

7780
01:53:36,030 --> 01:53:36,040
You know?
 

7781
01:53:36,040 --> 01:53:37,990
You know?
And then this caused like

7782
01:53:37,990 --> 01:53:38,000
And then this caused like
 

7783
01:53:38,000 --> 01:53:39,390
And then this caused like
when I when I did start thinking like oh

7784
01:53:39,390 --> 01:53:39,400
when I when I did start thinking like oh
 

7785
01:53:39,400 --> 01:53:40,630
when I when I did start thinking like oh
my gosh, it's going to be happening like

7786
01:53:40,630 --> 01:53:40,640
my gosh, it's going to be happening like
 

7787
01:53:40,640 --> 01:53:44,750
my gosh, it's going to be happening like
real soon. Um like by 2030, you know?

7788
01:53:44,750 --> 01:53:44,760
real soon. Um like by 2030, you know?
 

7789
01:53:44,760 --> 01:53:46,590
real soon. Um like by 2030, you know?
Um that caused

7790
01:53:46,590 --> 01:53:46,600
Um that caused
 

7791
01:53:46,600 --> 01:53:49,230
Um that caused
some reconsidering. And so

7792
01:53:49,230 --> 01:53:49,240
some reconsidering. And so
 

7793
01:53:49,240 --> 01:53:50,550
some reconsidering. And so
I basically told my wife like let's not

7794
01:53:50,550 --> 01:53:50,560
I basically told my wife like let's not
 

7795
01:53:50,560 --> 01:53:52,830
I basically told my wife like let's not
have any more kids. It's too uncertain,

7796
01:53:52,830 --> 01:53:52,840
have any more kids. It's too uncertain,
 

7797
01:53:52,840 --> 01:53:54,110
have any more kids. It's too uncertain,
you know?

7798
01:53:54,110 --> 01:53:54,120
you know?
 

7799
01:53:54,120 --> 01:53:55,550
you know?
But that turned out to be really hard

7800
01:53:55,550 --> 01:53:55,560
But that turned out to be really hard
 

7801
01:53:55,560 --> 01:53:56,790
But that turned out to be really hard
because

7802
01:53:56,790 --> 01:53:56,800
because
 

7803
01:53:56,800 --> 01:53:57,990
because
especially for my wife. Like we already

7804
01:53:57,990 --> 01:53:58,000
especially for my wife. Like we already
 

7805
01:53:58,000 --> 01:54:00,110
especially for my wife. Like we already
had one kid and like

7806
01:54:00,110 --> 01:54:00,120
had one kid and like
 

7807
01:54:00,120 --> 01:54:01,630
had one kid and like
no siblings.

7808
01:54:01,630 --> 01:54:01,640
no siblings.
 

7809
01:54:01,640 --> 01:54:04,750
no siblings.
Um so eventually I sort of gave in and

7810
01:54:04,750 --> 01:54:04,760
Um so eventually I sort of gave in and
 

7811
01:54:04,760 --> 01:54:05,790
Um so eventually I sort of gave in and
was like okay, well, you know what? We

7812
01:54:05,790 --> 01:54:05,800
was like okay, well, you know what? We
 

7813
01:54:05,800 --> 01:54:07,310
was like okay, well, you know what? We
already have one.

7814
01:54:07,310 --> 01:54:07,320
already have one.
 

7815
01:54:07,320 --> 01:54:09,150
already have one.
It's going to be all right. Like

7816
01:54:09,150 --> 01:54:09,160
It's going to be all right. Like
 

7817
01:54:09,160 --> 01:54:11,430
It's going to be all right. Like
maybe maybe the future will be good and

7818
01:54:11,430 --> 01:54:11,440
maybe maybe the future will be good and
 

7819
01:54:11,440 --> 01:54:13,070
maybe maybe the future will be good and
even if it's not like

7820
01:54:13,070 --> 01:54:13,080
even if it's not like
 

7821
01:54:13,080 --> 01:54:13,790
even if it's not like
well, we're all in the same boat

7822
01:54:13,790 --> 01:54:13,800
well, we're all in the same boat
 

7823
01:54:13,800 --> 01:54:15,350
well, we're all in the same boat
together.

7824
01:54:15,350 --> 01:54:15,360
together.
 

7825
01:54:15,360 --> 01:54:17,190
together.
>> It's quite chilling what you're saying.

7826
01:54:17,190 --> 01:54:17,200
>> It's quite chilling what you're saying.
 

7827
01:54:17,200 --> 01:54:18,310
>> It's quite chilling what you're saying.
It's chilling because you know more than

7828
01:54:18,310 --> 01:54:18,320
It's chilling because you know more than
 

7829
01:54:18,320 --> 01:54:19,350
It's chilling because you know more than
me.

7830
01:54:19,350 --> 01:54:19,360
me.
 

7831
01:54:19,360 --> 01:54:20,510
me.
And if you're at home saying to your

7832
01:54:20,510 --> 01:54:20,520
And if you're at home saying to your
 

7833
01:54:20,520 --> 01:54:22,030
And if you're at home saying to your
wife, "Listen, maybe we should pause on

7834
01:54:22,030 --> 01:54:22,040
wife, "Listen, maybe we should pause on
 

7835
01:54:22,040 --> 01:54:23,070
wife, "Listen, maybe we should pause on
having more children and building a

7836
01:54:23,070 --> 01:54:23,080
having more children and building a
 

7837
01:54:23,080 --> 01:54:24,510
having more children and building a
family because of what's going on with

7838
01:54:24,510 --> 01:54:24,520
family because of what's going on with
 

7839
01:54:24,520 --> 01:54:26,150
family because of what's going on with
AI."

7840
01:54:26,150 --> 01:54:26,160
AI."
 

7841
01:54:26,160 --> 01:54:27,950
AI."
>> To be clear, is it Yes, I mean yes, it's

7842
01:54:27,950 --> 01:54:27,960
>> To be clear, is it Yes, I mean yes, it's
 

7843
01:54:27,960 --> 01:54:29,390
>> To be clear, is it Yes, I mean yes, it's
very concerning.

7844
01:54:29,390 --> 01:54:29,400
very concerning.
 

7845
01:54:29,400 --> 01:54:31,070
very concerning.
I am I am chilled.

7846
01:54:31,070 --> 01:54:31,080
I am I am chilled.
 

7847
01:54:31,080 --> 01:54:32,910
I am I am chilled.
Uh this is bad. This is what I've been

7848
01:54:32,910 --> 01:54:32,920
Uh this is bad. This is what I've been
 

7849
01:54:32,920 --> 01:54:33,950
Uh this is bad. This is what I've been
saying.

7850
01:54:33,950 --> 01:54:33,960
saying.
 

7851
01:54:33,960 --> 01:54:35,150
saying.
I hope things go well. I think things

7852
01:54:35,150 --> 01:54:35,160
I hope things go well. I think things
 

7853
01:54:35,160 --> 01:54:37,030
I hope things go well. I think things
might go well. Um I think that there's a

7854
01:54:37,030 --> 01:54:37,040
might go well. Um I think that there's a
 

7855
01:54:37,040 --> 01:54:38,550
might go well. Um I think that there's a
lot we can do to like steer things in a

7856
01:54:38,550 --> 01:54:38,560
lot we can do to like steer things in a
 

7857
01:54:38,560 --> 01:54:39,550
lot we can do to like steer things in a
better direction.

7858
01:54:39,550 --> 01:54:39,560
better direction.
 

7859
01:54:39,560 --> 01:54:40,710
better direction.
>> I mean one of those things as well I

7860
01:54:40,710 --> 01:54:40,720
>> I mean one of those things as well I
 

7861
01:54:40,720 --> 01:54:43,590
>> I mean one of those things as well I
have to say is just speaking about it.

7862
01:54:43,590 --> 01:54:43,600
have to say is just speaking about it.
 

7863
01:54:43,600 --> 01:54:44,990
have to say is just speaking about it.
It's I think a lot of the progress we've

7864
01:54:44,990 --> 01:54:45,000
It's I think a lot of the progress we've
 

7865
01:54:45,000 --> 01:54:47,990
It's I think a lot of the progress we've
seen with governments waking up and

7866
01:54:47,990 --> 01:54:48,000
seen with governments waking up and
 

7867
01:54:48,000 --> 01:54:49,270
seen with governments waking up and
you know, we've seen certain things with

7868
01:54:49,270 --> 01:54:49,280
you know, we've seen certain things with
 

7869
01:54:49,280 --> 01:54:50,830
you know, we've seen certain things with
people booing certain people at certain

7870
01:54:50,830 --> 01:54:50,840
people booing certain people at certain
 

7871
01:54:50,840 --> 01:54:53,750
people booing certain people at certain
events. Yeah. Um is it is it downstream

7872
01:54:53,750 --> 01:54:53,760
events. Yeah. Um is it is it downstream
 

7873
01:54:53,760 --> 01:54:55,270
events. Yeah. Um is it is it downstream
from people like yourself actually

7874
01:54:55,270 --> 01:54:55,280
from people like yourself actually
 

7875
01:54:55,280 --> 01:54:57,110
from people like yourself actually
coming on shows like this and all the

7876
01:54:57,110 --> 01:54:57,120
coming on shows like this and all the
 

7877
01:54:57,120 --> 01:54:58,750
coming on shows like this and all the
other podcasts and

7878
01:54:58,750 --> 01:54:58,760
other podcasts and
 

7879
01:54:58,760 --> 01:55:00,910
other podcasts and
Yeah. telling us what's going on. Yeah.

7880
01:55:00,910 --> 01:55:00,920
Yeah. telling us what's going on. Yeah.
 

7881
01:55:00,920 --> 01:55:02,270
Yeah. telling us what's going on. Yeah.
Because else we're to be fair, we're

7882
01:55:02,270 --> 01:55:02,280
Because else we're to be fair, we're
 

7883
01:55:02,280 --> 01:55:03,790
Because else we're to be fair, we're
going to be gaslighted by the people

7884
01:55:03,790 --> 01:55:03,800
going to be gaslighted by the people
 

7885
01:55:03,800 --> 01:55:05,550
going to be gaslighted by the people
that have the biggest PR machines.

7886
01:55:05,550 --> 01:55:05,560
that have the biggest PR machines.
 

7887
01:55:05,560 --> 01:55:05,990
that have the biggest PR machines.
>> Yeah.

7888
01:55:05,990 --> 01:55:06,000
>> Yeah.
 

7889
01:55:06,000 --> 01:55:07,950
>> Yeah.
>> So, um I often I think it's probably

7890
01:55:07,950 --> 01:55:07,960
>> So, um I often I think it's probably
 

7891
01:55:07,960 --> 01:55:09,710
>> So, um I often I think it's probably
worth me saying I find myself kind of in

7892
01:55:09,710 --> 01:55:09,720
worth me saying I find myself kind of in
 

7893
01:55:09,720 --> 01:55:11,350
worth me saying I find myself kind of in
two minds cuz I'm an entrepreneur and

7894
01:55:11,350 --> 01:55:11,360
two minds cuz I'm an entrepreneur and
 

7895
01:55:11,360 --> 01:55:13,110
two minds cuz I'm an entrepreneur and
I'm an I'm an investor. I'm an investor

7896
01:55:13,110 --> 01:55:13,120
I'm an I'm an investor. I'm an investor
 

7897
01:55:13,120 --> 01:55:14,670
I'm an I'm an investor. I'm an investor
in probably more than 100 companies now

7898
01:55:14,670 --> 01:55:14,680
in probably more than 100 companies now
 

7899
01:55:14,680 --> 01:55:16,510
in probably more than 100 companies now
and well so many of those companies are

7900
01:55:16,510 --> 01:55:16,520
and well so many of those companies are
 

7901
01:55:16,520 --> 01:55:18,270
and well so many of those companies are
using AI. I invested in Grok, the

7902
01:55:18,270 --> 01:55:18,280
using AI. I invested in Grok, the
 

7903
01:55:18,280 --> 01:55:20,110
using AI. I invested in Grok, the
inference chip company. Invested in

7904
01:55:20,110 --> 01:55:20,120
inference chip company. Invested in
 

7905
01:55:20,120 --> 01:55:22,230
inference chip company. Invested in
SpaceX which now own another Grok and

7906
01:55:22,230 --> 01:55:22,240
SpaceX which now own another Grok and
 

7907
01:55:22,240 --> 01:55:24,270
SpaceX which now own another Grok and
they're doing AI. I use AI every day in

7908
01:55:24,270 --> 01:55:24,280
they're doing AI. I use AI every day in
 

7909
01:55:24,280 --> 01:55:25,390
they're doing AI. I use AI every day in
my life. I've been using it through this

7910
01:55:25,390 --> 01:55:25,400
my life. I've been using it through this
 

7911
01:55:25,400 --> 01:55:26,710
my life. I've been using it through this
conversation to understand different

7912
01:55:26,710 --> 01:55:26,720
conversation to understand different
 

7913
01:55:26,720 --> 01:55:28,430
conversation to understand different
things that you've said. So, that's one

7914
01:55:28,430 --> 01:55:28,440
things that you've said. So, that's one
 

7915
01:55:28,440 --> 01:55:29,990
things that you've said. So, that's one
side of me which is like business

7916
01:55:29,990 --> 01:55:30,000
side of me which is like business
 

7917
01:55:30,000 --> 01:55:32,470
side of me which is like business
builder, entrepreneur who has seen the

7918
01:55:32,470 --> 01:55:32,480
builder, entrepreneur who has seen the
 

7919
01:55:32,480 --> 01:55:34,510
builder, entrepreneur who has seen the
benefits of AI in my own life and then

7920
01:55:34,510 --> 01:55:34,520
benefits of AI in my own life and then
 

7921
01:55:34,520 --> 01:55:35,790
benefits of AI in my own life and then
there's the other side of me. And it's

7922
01:55:35,790 --> 01:55:35,800
there's the other side of me. And it's
 

7923
01:55:35,800 --> 01:55:37,190
there's the other side of me. And it's
funny cuz I think sometimes people think

7924
01:55:37,190 --> 01:55:37,200
funny cuz I think sometimes people think
 

7925
01:55:37,200 --> 01:55:38,910
funny cuz I think sometimes people think
you have to pick a camp.

7926
01:55:38,910 --> 01:55:38,920
you have to pick a camp.
 

7927
01:55:38,920 --> 01:55:40,270
you have to pick a camp.
But through all of my life, even when I

7928
01:55:40,270 --> 01:55:40,280
But through all of my life, even when I
 

7929
01:55:40,280 --> 01:55:41,630
But through all of my life, even when I
was a social media CEO and I was saying

7930
01:55:41,630 --> 01:55:41,640
was a social media CEO and I was saying
 

7931
01:55:41,640 --> 01:55:42,750
was a social media CEO and I was saying
by the way listen I'm building a social

7932
01:55:42,750 --> 01:55:42,760
by the way listen I'm building a social
 

7933
01:55:42,760 --> 01:55:43,790
by the way listen I'm building a social
media business but I think there's some

7934
01:55:43,790 --> 01:55:43,800
media business but I think there's some
 

7935
01:55:43,800 --> 01:55:45,630
media business but I think there's some
downsides to social media. Find myself

7936
01:55:45,630 --> 01:55:45,640
downsides to social media. Find myself
 

7937
01:55:45,640 --> 01:55:46,670
downsides to social media. Find myself
at the same moment where I'm like I

7938
01:55:46,670 --> 01:55:46,680
at the same moment where I'm like I
 

7939
01:55:46,680 --> 01:55:49,550
at the same moment where I'm like I
build with AI. I have AI investments.

7940
01:55:49,550 --> 01:55:49,560
build with AI. I have AI investments.
 

7941
01:55:49,560 --> 01:55:51,670
build with AI. I have AI investments.
And at the same time as a civilian I'm

7942
01:55:51,670 --> 01:55:51,680
And at the same time as a civilian I'm
 

7943
01:55:51,680 --> 01:55:52,670
And at the same time as a civilian I'm
like

7944
01:55:52,670 --> 01:55:52,680
like
 

7945
01:55:52,680 --> 01:55:53,470
like
>> Yeah.

7946
01:55:53,470 --> 01:55:53,480
>> Yeah.
 

7947
01:55:53,480 --> 01:55:54,710
>> Yeah.
I mean I think that is a tension. I

7948
01:55:54,710 --> 01:55:54,720
I mean I think that is a tension. I
 

7949
01:55:54,720 --> 01:55:57,190
I mean I think that is a tension. I
think that there's there's different

7950
01:55:57,190 --> 01:55:57,200
think that there's there's different
 

7951
01:55:57,200 --> 01:55:59,790
think that there's there's different
way ways you can draw the line. So, and

7952
01:55:59,790 --> 01:55:59,800
way ways you can draw the line. So, and
 

7953
01:55:59,800 --> 01:56:01,150
way ways you can draw the line. So, and
I know lots of people who draw the line

7954
01:56:01,150 --> 01:56:01,160
I know lots of people who draw the line
 

7955
01:56:01,160 --> 01:56:02,070
I know lots of people who draw the line
in lots of different ways. So, like

7956
01:56:02,070 --> 01:56:02,080
in lots of different ways. So, like
 

7957
01:56:02,080 --> 01:56:03,270
in lots of different ways. So, like
there's some people who just like I'm

7958
01:56:03,270 --> 01:56:03,280
there's some people who just like I'm
 

7959
01:56:03,280 --> 01:56:05,070
there's some people who just like I'm
not going to use AI. I think this stuff

7960
01:56:05,070 --> 01:56:05,080
not going to use AI. I think this stuff
 

7961
01:56:05,080 --> 01:56:07,350
not going to use AI. I think this stuff
is bad um and on a bad trajectory so I'm

7962
01:56:07,350 --> 01:56:07,360
is bad um and on a bad trajectory so I'm
 

7963
01:56:07,360 --> 01:56:09,470
is bad um and on a bad trajectory so I'm
going to like boycott AI, right? I'm not

7964
01:56:09,470 --> 01:56:09,480
going to like boycott AI, right? I'm not
 

7965
01:56:09,480 --> 01:56:11,150
going to like boycott AI, right? I'm not
one of those people. I use AI a lot. We

7966
01:56:11,150 --> 01:56:11,160
one of those people. I use AI a lot. We
 

7967
01:56:11,160 --> 01:56:13,670
one of those people. I use AI a lot. We
all do at AI Futures Project. Um it's

7968
01:56:13,670 --> 01:56:13,680
all do at AI Futures Project. Um it's
 

7969
01:56:13,680 --> 01:56:15,790
all do at AI Futures Project. Um it's
helpful for a lot of our work.

7970
01:56:15,790 --> 01:56:15,800
helpful for a lot of our work.
 

7971
01:56:15,800 --> 01:56:18,510
helpful for a lot of our work.
The opposite end of the spectrum is

7972
01:56:18,510 --> 01:56:18,520
The opposite end of the spectrum is
 

7973
01:56:18,520 --> 01:56:19,350
The opposite end of the spectrum is
you

7974
01:56:19,350 --> 01:56:19,360
you
 

7975
01:56:19,360 --> 01:56:20,990
you
people being like

7976
01:56:20,990 --> 01:56:21,000
people being like
 

7977
01:56:21,000 --> 01:56:22,310
people being like
well, it seems like it's on a trajectory

7978
01:56:22,310 --> 01:56:22,320
well, it seems like it's on a trajectory
 

7979
01:56:22,320 --> 01:56:24,510
well, it seems like it's on a trajectory
to happen so the thing to do to make it

7980
01:56:24,510 --> 01:56:24,520
to happen so the thing to do to make it
 

7981
01:56:24,520 --> 01:56:26,150
to happen so the thing to do to make it
go well is to like

7982
01:56:26,150 --> 01:56:26,160
go well is to like
 

7983
01:56:26,160 --> 01:56:27,750
go well is to like
get involved and accumulate power and

7984
01:56:27,750 --> 01:56:27,760
get involved and accumulate power and
 

7985
01:56:27,760 --> 01:56:29,350
get involved and accumulate power and
try to like steer it from the inside.

7986
01:56:29,350 --> 01:56:29,360
try to like steer it from the inside.
 

7987
01:56:29,360 --> 01:56:29,710
try to like steer it from the inside.
>> Mhm.

7988
01:56:29,710 --> 01:56:29,720
>> Mhm.
 

7989
01:56:29,720 --> 01:56:31,750
>> Mhm.
>> And so I'm going to go work at OpenAI or

7990
01:56:31,750 --> 01:56:31,760
>> And so I'm going to go work at OpenAI or
 

7991
01:56:31,760 --> 01:56:33,670
>> And so I'm going to go work at OpenAI or
Anthropic and like try to like climb the

7992
01:56:33,670 --> 01:56:33,680
Anthropic and like try to like climb the
 

7993
01:56:33,680 --> 01:56:35,550
Anthropic and like try to like climb the
ranks and then like you know, be someone

7994
01:56:35,550 --> 01:56:35,560
ranks and then like you know, be someone
 

7995
01:56:35,560 --> 01:56:37,150
ranks and then like you know, be someone
who matters when the important decisions

7996
01:56:37,150 --> 01:56:37,160
who matters when the important decisions
 

7997
01:56:37,160 --> 01:56:38,390
who matters when the important decisions
are being made. And I know loads of

7998
01:56:38,390 --> 01:56:38,400
are being made. And I know loads of
 

7999
01:56:38,400 --> 01:56:40,190
are being made. And I know loads of
people like that. That was like what I

8000
01:56:40,190 --> 01:56:40,200
people like that. That was like what I
 

8001
01:56:40,200 --> 01:56:41,430
people like that. That was like what I
was doing when I was

8002
01:56:41,430 --> 01:56:41,440
was doing when I was
 

8003
01:56:41,440 --> 01:56:42,670
was doing when I was
That wasn't what I was doing exactly but

8004
01:56:42,670 --> 01:56:42,680
That wasn't what I was doing exactly but
 

8005
01:56:42,680 --> 01:56:43,430
That wasn't what I was doing exactly but
like

8006
01:56:43,430 --> 01:56:43,440
like
 

8007
01:56:43,440 --> 01:56:43,990
like
>> That was the path.

8008
01:56:43,990 --> 01:56:44,000
>> That was the path.
 

8009
01:56:44,000 --> 01:56:45,230
>> That was the path.
>> That was like that was a I mean this In

8010
01:56:45,230 --> 01:56:45,240
>> That was like that was a I mean this In
 

8011
01:56:45,240 --> 01:56:46,070
>> That was like that was a I mean this In
some sense this is what the whole

8012
01:56:46,070 --> 01:56:46,080
some sense this is what the whole
 

8013
01:56:46,080 --> 01:56:47,230
some sense this is what the whole
narrative of the companies are, right?

8014
01:56:47,230 --> 01:56:47,240
narrative of the companies are, right?
 

8015
01:56:47,240 --> 01:56:48,910
narrative of the companies are, right?
Like this is why they tell themselves

8016
01:56:48,910 --> 01:56:48,920
Like this is why they tell themselves
 

8017
01:56:48,920 --> 01:56:49,990
Like this is why they tell themselves
it's okay to do what they're doing is

8018
01:56:49,990 --> 01:56:50,000
it's okay to do what they're doing is
 

8019
01:56:50,000 --> 01:56:50,870
it's okay to do what they're doing is
that they're worried about the other

8020
01:56:50,870 --> 01:56:50,880
that they're worried about the other
 

8021
01:56:50,880 --> 01:56:53,270
that they're worried about the other
guys, you know? And so like all these

8022
01:56:53,270 --> 01:56:53,280
guys, you know? And so like all these
 

8023
01:56:53,280 --> 01:56:55,590
guys, you know? And so like all these
people are deciding like we're going to

8024
01:56:55,590 --> 01:56:55,600
people are deciding like we're going to
 

8025
01:56:55,600 --> 01:56:56,870
people are deciding like we're going to
like lean really hard into it. We're

8026
01:56:56,870 --> 01:56:56,880
like lean really hard into it. We're
 

8027
01:56:56,880 --> 01:56:59,070
like lean really hard into it. We're
going to like be there in the room when

8028
01:56:59,070 --> 01:56:59,080
going to like be there in the room when
 

8029
01:56:59,080 --> 01:57:00,550
going to like be there in the room when
the when decisions are being made, you

8030
01:57:00,550 --> 01:57:00,560
the when decisions are being made, you
 

8031
01:57:00,560 --> 01:57:02,190
the when decisions are being made, you
know? So, there's a whole spectrum and

8032
01:57:02,190 --> 01:57:02,200
know? So, there's a whole spectrum and
 

8033
01:57:02,200 --> 01:57:03,070
know? So, there's a whole spectrum and
I'm sort of like somewhere in the

8034
01:57:03,070 --> 01:57:03,080
I'm sort of like somewhere in the
 

8035
01:57:03,080 --> 01:57:04,310
I'm sort of like somewhere in the
middle. Like I'm not at the at

8036
01:57:04,310 --> 01:57:04,320
middle. Like I'm not at the at
 

8037
01:57:04,320 --> 01:57:06,630
middle. Like I'm not at the at
companies, I'm not helping them

8038
01:57:06,630 --> 01:57:06,640
companies, I'm not helping them
 

8039
01:57:06,640 --> 01:57:07,790
companies, I'm not helping them
go faster.

8040
01:57:07,790 --> 01:57:07,800
go faster.
 

8041
01:57:07,800 --> 01:57:09,670
go faster.
Instead, I'm talking to the broad public

8042
01:57:09,670 --> 01:57:09,680
Instead, I'm talking to the broad public
 

8043
01:57:09,680 --> 01:57:11,870
Instead, I'm talking to the broad public
and trying to advocate for what I think

8044
01:57:11,870 --> 01:57:11,880
and trying to advocate for what I think
 

8045
01:57:11,880 --> 01:57:13,470
and trying to advocate for what I think
is the

8046
01:57:13,470 --> 01:57:13,480
is the
 

8047
01:57:13,480 --> 01:57:15,950
is the
my current best guess as to the way out,

8048
01:57:15,950 --> 01:57:15,960
my current best guess as to the way out,
 

8049
01:57:15,960 --> 01:57:17,350
my current best guess as to the way out,
you know, the way forward.

8050
01:57:17,350 --> 01:57:17,360
you know, the way forward.
 

8051
01:57:17,360 --> 01:57:19,070
you know, the way forward.
Um but, I'm not like boycotting all the

8052
01:57:19,070 --> 01:57:19,080
Um but, I'm not like boycotting all the
 

8053
01:57:19,080 --> 01:57:21,510
Um but, I'm not like boycotting all the
AIs. I'm I'm not like, you know,

8054
01:57:21,510 --> 01:57:21,520
AIs. I'm I'm not like, you know,
 

8055
01:57:21,520 --> 01:57:23,870
AIs. I'm I'm not like, you know,
uh trying to I'm not refusing to like

8056
01:57:23,870 --> 01:57:23,880
uh trying to I'm not refusing to like
 

8057
01:57:23,880 --> 01:57:25,950
uh trying to I'm not refusing to like
engage with it in that way.

8058
01:57:25,950 --> 01:57:25,960
engage with it in that way.
 

8059
01:57:25,960 --> 01:57:27,670
engage with it in that way.
>> Do you think it's too late?

8060
01:57:27,670 --> 01:57:27,680
>> Do you think it's too late?
 

8061
01:57:27,680 --> 01:57:29,070
>> Do you think it's too late?
>> No.

8062
01:57:29,070 --> 01:57:29,080
>> No.
 

8063
01:57:29,080 --> 01:57:30,190
>> No.
I don't think it's too late. If I

8064
01:57:30,190 --> 01:57:30,200
I don't think it's too late. If I
 

8065
01:57:30,200 --> 01:57:30,990
I don't think it's too late. If I
thought it was too late, I wouldn't be

8066
01:57:30,990 --> 01:57:31,000
thought it was too late, I wouldn't be
 

8067
01:57:31,000 --> 01:57:31,750
thought it was too late, I wouldn't be
here.

8068
01:57:31,750 --> 01:57:31,760
here.
 

8069
01:57:31,760 --> 01:57:33,350
here.
>> Hm. Where would you [clears throat] be?

8070
01:57:33,350 --> 01:57:33,360
>> Hm. Where would you [clears throat] be?
 

8071
01:57:33,360 --> 01:57:36,510
>> Hm. Where would you [clears throat] be?
>> With my family.

8072
01:57:36,510 --> 01:57:36,520

 

8073
01:57:36,520 --> 01:57:38,750

>> What's your closing message to the

8074
01:57:38,750 --> 01:57:38,760
>> What's your closing message to the
 

8075
01:57:38,760 --> 01:57:40,590
>> What's your closing message to the
general public if you had to have a

8076
01:57:40,590 --> 01:57:40,600
general public if you had to have a
 

8077
01:57:40,600 --> 01:57:42,430
general public if you had to have a
closing statement to them? Maybe I would

8078
01:57:42,430 --> 01:57:42,440
closing statement to them? Maybe I would
 

8079
01:57:42,440 --> 01:57:44,550
closing statement to them? Maybe I would
say that like

8080
01:57:44,550 --> 01:57:44,560
say that like
 

8081
01:57:44,560 --> 01:57:45,590
say that like
>> you're going to hear a lot of things and

8082
01:57:45,590 --> 01:57:45,600
>> you're going to hear a lot of things and
 

8083
01:57:45,600 --> 01:57:46,510
>> you're going to hear a lot of things and
you already have been hearing a lot of

8084
01:57:46,510 --> 01:57:46,520
you already have been hearing a lot of
 

8085
01:57:46,520 --> 01:57:48,230
you already have been hearing a lot of
things about

8086
01:57:48,230 --> 01:57:48,240
things about
 

8087
01:57:48,240 --> 01:57:50,230
things about
AI and it's going to sound like science

8088
01:57:50,230 --> 01:57:50,240
AI and it's going to sound like science
 

8089
01:57:50,240 --> 01:57:51,430
AI and it's going to sound like science
fiction,

8090
01:57:51,430 --> 01:57:51,440
fiction,
 

8091
01:57:51,440 --> 01:57:53,790
fiction,
but sometimes things which sound like

8092
01:57:53,790 --> 01:57:53,800
but sometimes things which sound like
 

8093
01:57:53,800 --> 01:57:55,990
but sometimes things which sound like
science fiction happen in reality.

8094
01:57:55,990 --> 01:57:56,000
science fiction happen in reality.
 

8095
01:57:56,000 --> 01:57:58,150
science fiction happen in reality.
And in fact, many times historically

8096
01:57:58,150 --> 01:57:58,160
And in fact, many times historically
 

8097
01:57:58,160 --> 01:57:59,590
And in fact, many times historically
things which used to be science fiction

8098
01:57:59,590 --> 01:57:59,600
things which used to be science fiction
 

8099
01:57:59,600 --> 01:58:01,990
things which used to be science fiction
have then become reality. And people

8100
01:58:01,990 --> 01:58:02,000
have then become reality. And people
 

8101
01:58:02,000 --> 01:58:03,230
have then become reality. And people
need to

8102
01:58:03,230 --> 01:58:03,240
need to
 

8103
01:58:03,240 --> 01:58:04,630
need to
stop thinking about what does or doesn't

8104
01:58:04,630 --> 01:58:04,640
stop thinking about what does or doesn't
 

8105
01:58:04,640 --> 01:58:05,790
stop thinking about what does or doesn't
sound like science fiction and just

8106
01:58:05,790 --> 01:58:05,800
sound like science fiction and just
 

8107
01:58:05,800 --> 01:58:08,070
sound like science fiction and just
start thinking about like the trends

8108
01:58:08,070 --> 01:58:08,080
start thinking about like the trends
 

8109
01:58:08,080 --> 01:58:09,270
start thinking about like the trends
and,

8110
01:58:09,270 --> 01:58:09,280
and,
 

8111
01:58:09,280 --> 01:58:11,150
and,
you know, the actual trends that this

8112
01:58:11,150 --> 01:58:11,160
you know, the actual trends that this
 

8113
01:58:11,160 --> 01:58:12,990
you know, the actual trends that this
technology is on and

8114
01:58:12,990 --> 01:58:13,000
technology is on and
 

8115
01:58:13,000 --> 01:58:14,950
technology is on and
reading and forecasting how it's going

8116
01:58:14,950 --> 01:58:14,960
reading and forecasting how it's going
 

8117
01:58:14,960 --> 01:58:16,670
reading and forecasting how it's going
to go and then taking seriously the

8118
01:58:16,670 --> 01:58:16,680
to go and then taking seriously the
 

8119
01:58:16,680 --> 01:58:18,750
to go and then taking seriously the
possibility that it could go something

8120
01:58:18,750 --> 01:58:18,760
possibility that it could go something
 

8121
01:58:18,760 --> 01:58:20,510
possibility that it could go something
like this and then thinking about what

8122
01:58:20,510 --> 01:58:20,520
like this and then thinking about what
 

8123
01:58:20,520 --> 01:58:21,710
like this and then thinking about what
should be done about that.

8124
01:58:21,710 --> 01:58:21,720
should be done about that.
 

8125
01:58:21,720 --> 01:58:23,270
should be done about that.
>> And where would you direct them to get

8126
01:58:23,270 --> 01:58:23,280
>> And where would you direct them to get
 

8127
01:58:23,280 --> 01:58:25,030
>> And where would you direct them to get
more information? You can go

8128
01:58:25,030 --> 01:58:25,040
more information? You can go
 

8129
01:58:25,040 --> 01:58:27,750
more information? You can go
>> to ai2047.com to read our previous

8130
01:58:27,750 --> 01:58:27,760
>> to ai2047.com to read our previous
 

8131
01:58:27,760 --> 01:58:30,950
>> to ai2047.com to read our previous
scenario. You can go to ai2040.com plan

8132
01:58:30,950 --> 01:58:30,960
scenario. You can go to ai2040.com plan
 

8133
01:58:30,960 --> 01:58:33,470
scenario. You can go to ai2040.com plan
A to read our new proposal for what is

8134
01:58:33,470 --> 01:58:33,480
A to read our new proposal for what is
 

8135
01:58:33,480 --> 01:58:36,550
A to read our new proposal for what is
to be done. Um these things are not just

8136
01:58:36,550 --> 01:58:36,560
to be done. Um these things are not just
 

8137
01:58:36,560 --> 01:58:39,030
to be done. Um these things are not just
a sci-fi story. They also have lots of

8138
01:58:39,030 --> 01:58:39,040
a sci-fi story. They also have lots of
 

8139
01:58:39,040 --> 01:58:40,790
a sci-fi story. They also have lots of
like explainers and links to other

8140
01:58:40,790 --> 01:58:40,800
like explainers and links to other
 

8141
01:58:40,800 --> 01:58:42,390
like explainers and links to other
things. And so, they're kind of like a

8142
01:58:42,390 --> 01:58:42,400
things. And so, they're kind of like a
 

8143
01:58:42,400 --> 01:58:45,550
things. And so, they're kind of like a
nice jumping off point to to learn about

8144
01:58:45,550 --> 01:58:45,560
nice jumping off point to to learn about
 

8145
01:58:45,560 --> 01:58:47,990
nice jumping off point to to learn about
all of this stuff. Um

8146
01:58:47,990 --> 01:58:48,000
all of this stuff. Um
 

8147
01:58:48,000 --> 01:58:49,470
all of this stuff. Um
If you want, I could um after this is

8148
01:58:49,470 --> 01:58:49,480
If you want, I could um after this is
 

8149
01:58:49,480 --> 01:58:51,750
If you want, I could um after this is
over, like give a reading list of like

8150
01:58:51,750 --> 01:58:51,760
over, like give a reading list of like
 

8151
01:58:51,760 --> 01:58:55,510
over, like give a reading list of like
other papers and articles and

8152
01:58:55,510 --> 01:58:55,520
other papers and articles and
 

8153
01:58:55,520 --> 01:58:55,830
other papers and articles and
>> Please do.

8154
01:58:55,830 --> 01:58:55,840
>> Please do.
 

8155
01:58:55,840 --> 01:58:57,150
>> Please do.
>> blogs to follow and so forth.

8156
01:58:57,150 --> 01:58:57,160
>> blogs to follow and so forth.
 

8157
01:58:57,160 --> 01:58:58,350
>> blogs to follow and so forth.
>> And I'll link them all below in the

8158
01:58:58,350 --> 01:58:58,360
>> And I'll link them all below in the
 

8159
01:58:58,360 --> 01:58:59,670
>> And I'll link them all below in the
comment section. So, if you're listening

8160
01:58:59,670 --> 01:58:59,680
comment section. So, if you're listening
 

8161
01:58:59,680 --> 01:59:01,190
comment section. So, if you're listening
now, go ahead and take a look at the

8162
01:59:01,190 --> 01:59:01,200
now, go ahead and take a look at the
 

8163
01:59:01,200 --> 01:59:03,030
now, go ahead and take a look at the
comment sec the description of this

8164
01:59:03,030 --> 01:59:03,040
comment sec the description of this
 

8165
01:59:03,040 --> 01:59:04,990
comment sec the description of this
episode and you'll see a bunch of links

8166
01:59:04,990 --> 01:59:05,000
episode and you'll see a bunch of links
 

8167
01:59:05,000 --> 01:59:06,670
episode and you'll see a bunch of links
which is Daniel's recommendations of

8168
01:59:06,670 --> 01:59:06,680
which is Daniel's recommendations of
 

8169
01:59:06,680 --> 01:59:08,270
which is Daniel's recommendations of
what you should read. You know, I think

8170
01:59:08,270 --> 01:59:08,280
what you should read. You know, I think
 

8171
01:59:08,280 --> 01:59:09,750
what you should read. You know, I think
it's it's just a really really great

8172
01:59:09,750 --> 01:59:09,760
it's it's just a really really great
 

8173
01:59:09,760 --> 01:59:11,510
it's it's just a really really great
moment in time to get educated on this

8174
01:59:11,510 --> 01:59:11,520
moment in time to get educated on this
 

8175
01:59:11,520 --> 01:59:14,430
moment in time to get educated on this
stuff. Um humans have a an inclination

8176
01:59:14,430 --> 01:59:14,440
stuff. Um humans have a an inclination
 

8177
01:59:14,440 --> 01:59:15,750
stuff. Um humans have a an inclination
because of cognitive dissonance where we

8178
01:59:15,750 --> 01:59:15,760
because of cognitive dissonance where we
 

8179
01:59:15,760 --> 01:59:17,910
because of cognitive dissonance where we
feel uncomfortable about something to

8180
01:59:17,910 --> 01:59:17,920
feel uncomfortable about something to
 

8181
01:59:17,920 --> 01:59:20,070
feel uncomfortable about something to
bury our heads in the sand and avoid it.

8182
01:59:20,070 --> 01:59:20,080
bury our heads in the sand and avoid it.
 

8183
01:59:20,080 --> 01:59:20,350
bury our heads in the sand and avoid it.
>> Yeah.

8184
01:59:20,350 --> 01:59:20,360
>> Yeah.
 

8185
01:59:20,360 --> 01:59:22,150
>> Yeah.
>> But actually, I think this is one such

8186
01:59:22,150 --> 01:59:22,160
>> But actually, I think this is one such
 

8187
01:59:22,160 --> 01:59:23,790
>> But actually, I think this is one such
time to do the very opposite. For many

8188
01:59:23,790 --> 01:59:23,800
time to do the very opposite. For many
 

8189
01:59:23,800 --> 01:59:26,190
time to do the very opposite. For many
reasons, to to inform yourself so you

8190
01:59:26,190 --> 01:59:26,200
reasons, to to inform yourself so you
 

8191
01:59:26,200 --> 01:59:27,470
reasons, to to inform yourself so you
know what actions to take, but also

8192
01:59:27,470 --> 01:59:27,480
know what actions to take, but also
 

8193
01:59:27,480 --> 01:59:29,230
know what actions to take, but also
because AI

8194
01:59:29,230 --> 01:59:29,240
because AI
 

8195
01:59:29,240 --> 01:59:30,790
because AI
you know, unavoidably is going to be a

8196
01:59:30,790 --> 01:59:30,800
you know, unavoidably is going to be a
 

8197
01:59:30,800 --> 01:59:31,750
you know, unavoidably is going to be a
huge part of all of our lives and

8198
01:59:31,750 --> 01:59:31,760
huge part of all of our lives and
 

8199
01:59:31,760 --> 01:59:32,230
huge part of all of our lives and
careers.

8200
01:59:32,230 --> 01:59:32,240
careers.
 

8201
01:59:32,240 --> 01:59:34,390
careers.
>> Yeah. Yeah, thank you. And that that's

8202
01:59:34,390 --> 01:59:34,400
>> Yeah. Yeah, thank you. And that that's
 

8203
01:59:34,400 --> 01:59:35,590
>> Yeah. Yeah, thank you. And that that's
the good way to

8204
01:59:35,590 --> 01:59:35,600
the good way to
 

8205
01:59:35,600 --> 01:59:37,710
the good way to
to say it. It's going to matter a lot.

8206
01:59:37,710 --> 01:59:37,720
to say it. It's going to matter a lot.
 

8207
01:59:37,720 --> 01:59:38,510
to say it. It's going to matter a lot.
It's going to It's going to be

8208
01:59:38,510 --> 01:59:38,520
It's going to It's going to be
 

8209
01:59:38,520 --> 01:59:41,150
It's going to It's going to be
everywhere soon and um

8210
01:59:41,150 --> 01:59:41,160
everywhere soon and um
 

8211
01:59:41,160 --> 01:59:42,230
everywhere soon and um
we need to do something about it before

8212
01:59:42,230 --> 01:59:42,240
we need to do something about it before
 

8213
01:59:42,240 --> 01:59:42,910
we need to do something about it before
it's too late.

8214
01:59:42,910 --> 01:59:42,920
it's too late.
 

8215
01:59:42,920 --> 01:59:44,470
it's too late.
>> What about AI Future Project?

8216
01:59:44,470 --> 01:59:44,480
>> What about AI Future Project?
 

8217
01:59:44,480 --> 01:59:46,150
>> What about AI Future Project?
>> That's our organization. We spent a year

8218
01:59:46,150 --> 01:59:46,160
>> That's our organization. We spent a year
 

8219
01:59:46,160 --> 01:59:48,350
>> That's our organization. We spent a year
writing a 2047 after I left OpenAI and

8220
01:59:48,350 --> 01:59:48,360
writing a 2047 after I left OpenAI and
 

8221
01:59:48,360 --> 01:59:49,950
writing a 2047 after I left OpenAI and
then we spent another year writing a

8222
01:59:49,950 --> 01:59:49,960
then we spent another year writing a
 

8223
01:59:49,960 --> 01:59:51,990
then we spent another year writing a
2040 Plan A.

8224
01:59:51,990 --> 01:59:52,000
2040 Plan A.
 

8225
01:59:52,000 --> 01:59:53,070
2040 Plan A.
>> Daniel, thank you.

8226
01:59:53,070 --> 01:59:53,080
>> Daniel, thank you.
 

8227
01:59:53,080 --> 01:59:53,390
>> Daniel, thank you.
>> Thank you.

8228
01:59:53,390 --> 01:59:53,400
>> Thank you.
 

8229
01:59:53,400 --> 01:59:54,310
>> Thank you.
>> Thank you for all the work that you do.

8230
01:59:54,310 --> 01:59:54,320
>> Thank you for all the work that you do.
 

8231
01:59:54,320 --> 01:59:55,470
>> Thank you for all the work that you do.
I can see how much you care about this

8232
01:59:55,470 --> 01:59:55,480
I can see how much you care about this
 

8233
01:59:55,480 --> 01:59:57,670
I can see how much you care about this
stuff and it's your care it's funny care

8234
01:59:57,670 --> 01:59:57,680
stuff and it's your care it's funny care
 

8235
01:59:57,680 --> 02:00:00,310
stuff and it's your care it's funny care
itself makes others feel care. And

8236
02:00:00,310 --> 02:00:00,320
itself makes others feel care. And
 

8237
02:00:00,320 --> 02:00:01,670
itself makes others feel care. And
seeing how personal this is for you and

8238
02:00:01,670 --> 02:00:01,680
seeing how personal this is for you and
 

8239
02:00:01,680 --> 02:00:02,790
seeing how personal this is for you and
seeing how much you've dedicated your

8240
02:00:02,790 --> 02:00:02,800
seeing how much you've dedicated your
 

8241
02:00:02,800 --> 02:00:05,830
seeing how much you've dedicated your
life to this, but also hearing that you

8242
02:00:05,830 --> 02:00:05,840
life to this, but also hearing that you
 

8243
02:00:05,840 --> 02:00:07,670
life to this, but also hearing that you
you basically walked away from $2

8244
02:00:07,670 --> 02:00:07,680
you basically walked away from $2
 

8245
02:00:07,680 --> 02:00:09,110
you basically walked away from $2
million to be able to speak to the

8246
02:00:09,110 --> 02:00:09,120
million to be able to speak to the
 

8247
02:00:09,120 --> 02:00:10,313
million to be able to speak to the
public about this information

8248
02:00:10,313 --> 02:00:10,323
public about this information
 

8249
02:00:10,323 --> 02:00:11,950
public about this information
[clears throat] is incredibly admirable

8250
02:00:11,950 --> 02:00:11,960
[clears throat] is incredibly admirable
 

8251
02:00:11,960 --> 02:00:15,110
[clears throat] is incredibly admirable
and uh I I think voices like yours are

8252
02:00:15,110 --> 02:00:15,120
and uh I I think voices like yours are
 

8253
02:00:15,120 --> 02:00:16,310
and uh I I think voices like yours are
more important now than they've ever

8254
02:00:16,310 --> 02:00:16,320
more important now than they've ever
 

8255
02:00:16,320 --> 02:00:17,670
more important now than they've ever
been on this subject. So, please do keep

8256
02:00:17,670 --> 02:00:17,680
been on this subject. So, please do keep
 

8257
02:00:17,680 --> 02:00:18,870
been on this subject. So, please do keep
fighting the fight that you're fighting

8258
02:00:18,870 --> 02:00:18,880
fighting the fight that you're fighting
 

8259
02:00:18,880 --> 02:00:20,590
fighting the fight that you're fighting
and that's one of information, it is of

8260
02:00:20,590 --> 02:00:20,600
and that's one of information, it is of
 

8261
02:00:20,600 --> 02:00:23,350
and that's one of information, it is of
honesty, and it is uh of saying what

8262
02:00:23,350 --> 02:00:23,360
honesty, and it is uh of saying what
 

8263
02:00:23,360 --> 02:00:25,310
honesty, and it is uh of saying what
what is often the quiet part out loud.

8264
02:00:25,310 --> 02:00:25,320
what is often the quiet part out loud.
 

8265
02:00:25,320 --> 02:00:26,150
what is often the quiet part out loud.
>> Thank you.

8266
02:00:26,150 --> 02:00:26,160
>> Thank you.
 

8267
02:00:26,160 --> 02:00:27,510
>> Thank you.
>> doing really really smart research. I'll

8268
02:00:27,510 --> 02:00:27,520
>> doing really really smart research. I'll
 

8269
02:00:27,520 --> 02:00:28,990
>> doing really really smart research. I'll
link everything we've discussed today

8270
02:00:28,990 --> 02:00:29,000
link everything we've discussed today
 

8271
02:00:29,000 --> 02:00:30,550
link everything we've discussed today
below and I hope we can chat again

8272
02:00:30,550 --> 02:00:30,560
below and I hope we can chat again
 

8273
02:00:30,560 --> 02:00:31,710
below and I hope we can chat again
sometime soon.

8274
02:00:31,710 --> 02:00:31,720
sometime soon.
 

8275
02:00:31,720 --> 02:00:32,350
sometime soon.
>> Thank you.

8276
02:00:32,350 --> 02:00:32,360
>> Thank you.
 

8277
02:00:32,360 --> 02:00:33,870
>> Thank you.
>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm

8278
02:00:33,870 --> 02:00:33,880
>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
 

8279
02:00:33,880 --> 02:00:36,070
>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
where they know exactly what video you

8280
02:00:36,070 --> 02:00:36,080
where they know exactly what video you
 

8281
02:00:36,080 --> 02:00:38,390
where they know exactly what video you
would like to watch next based on AI and

8282
02:00:38,390 --> 02:00:38,400
would like to watch next based on AI and
 

8283
02:00:38,400 --> 02:00:40,110
would like to watch next based on AI and
all of your viewing behavior. And the

8284
02:00:40,110 --> 02:00:40,120
all of your viewing behavior. And the
 

8285
02:00:40,120 --> 02:00:43,150
all of your viewing behavior. And the
algorithm says that this video is the

8286
02:00:43,150 --> 02:00:43,160
algorithm says that this video is the
 

8287
02:00:43,160 --> 02:00:45,030
algorithm says that this video is the
perfect video for you. It's different

8288
02:00:45,030 --> 02:00:45,040
perfect video for you. It's different
 

8289
02:00:45,040 --> 02:00:46,670
perfect video for you. It's different
for everybody looking right now. Check

8290
02:00:46,670 --> 02:00:46,680
for everybody looking right now. Check
 

8291
02:00:46,680 --> 02:00:48,790
for everybody looking right now. Check
this video out. I bet you you might love

8292
02:00:48,790 --> 02:00:48,800
this video out. I bet you you might love
 

8293
02:00:48,800 --> 02:00:51,120
this video out. I bet you you might love
it.